Sunday 10-15-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[New York Knight]

Mike Francesca (7-5 ytd)

Ravens -6
Pitt +4
Ten -3

[New York Knight]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Patriots over Jets

The Jets are 3-2 on the season and have already won more games then the New York 'scribes' predicted. New England is 3-2 as well but have been totally unimpressive so far going 1-4 against the 'opening' number and will the Jets seriously here. The Patriots defense has been among the worst in the NFL but now up against an offense like the grounded Jets they will prevail. Take NEW ENGLAND!

[New York Knight]

MICHAEL ALEXANDER

NFL | Oct 15, 2017
Chargers vs. Raiders

Chargers+3½ -124

The Chargers snapped their 9-game losing streak, thanks to 3 touchdown passes from Rivers, and as bad as things are for L.A., he always seems to play well here. Even if they don't win, it's always close (with exception of a 10-point loss in 2013). Oakland QB, Carr will be out for another 1-5 weeks. Manuel last week was 13-of-26 for 159 yards (1 TD & no interceptions). But only 15 first downs & 245 yards just isn't going to make it, especially when compared to last year's Raider run. Just 12.3 points per game for the Raiders in their last 3 games. The visitor is 23-8 ATS in Charger games.

[New York Knight]

ASA

PLAY ON San Francisco +11 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

San Fran is 0-5 on the season but they are a very competitive 0-5 (3-2 ATS). Throw out their 23-3 loss to open the season vs Carolina and this Niner team has lost their other 4 games by a combined 11 points. They are not getting dominated on the stat sheet either as they are getting outgained by just 0.3 YPP and haven’t been outgained in a game by more than 70 yards this season. The Niner defense has held 4 of their 5 opponents to 23 points or less in regulation and if they can duplicate those numbers, it will make it very tough to cover this high pointspread. Washington is in a spot they simply are not used to being in. They have not been a double digit favorite since the 2009 season. Going back to 1993, the Redskins have been a favorite of 10 or more only 10 times and they are just 1-9 ATS in those games. They have lost outright in 6 of those 10 games. Too many points here. We like San Fran to keep it close.

[New York Knight]

BOBBY CONN

1* Free Play on Falcons -13 -102

[New York Knight]

MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Chicago Bears (Game 261).

Edges - Bears: 7-1 ATS away after facing the Vikings; and 5-1 ATS away versus avenging AFC foes… Ravens: 0-6 ATS home between away games; and 0-5 ATS in its last five NFC contests… With the Bears owning the better offense and the better defense in this contest, we recommend a 1* play on Chicago. Thank you and good luck as always.

[New York Knight]

JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Lions/Saints UNDER

The books have set the total too high for Sunday's NFL action that has the Saints hosting the Lions. New Orleans is perceived to be one of the league's top scoring offenses, but the fact of the matter is, they have scored 20 or fewer points in 3 of their 4 games this season.

I look for the Saints offense to struggle to reach that mark again, as they take on a vastly improved Detroit defense. So much attention is paid to New Orleans' passing attack, which is annually one of the best in the NFL, but like every other team they need some balance. The only game the Saints have eclipsed 20 points is against the Panthers, where they had 149 rushing yards. In the games where they failed to eclipse 20 points they have had fewer than 90 yards rushing. Good chance they struggle on the ground here, as the Lions own the leagues 3rd ranked run defense, giving up just 74.6 ypg (allowing just 3.3 yards/carry).

I know the Saints defense has been awful in previous seasons and the numbers aren't great early on in 2017, but New Orleans has a lot of young talent on that side of the ball and been really good the last two games, holding the Panthers to just 13 points on the road and recording their first shutout in years in their last game against the Dolphins. With the way Detroit's offensive line has been struggling (allowed 12 sacks last 2 games) and the Saints coming off a bye, I look for the defense to hold their own here against Stafford and the Lions offense.

UNDER is 7-3 in the Saints last 10 against a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 14 points. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games against NFC opponents and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games after playing in a game with 50 or more combined points. Take the UNDER!

[New York Knight]

JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Atlanta Falcons -12.5

The Atlanta Falcons are the real deal again this season. They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play on offense, and 6th in yards per play on defense. They are 1st in net yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play on the season. Those are the most important stats in the NFL to tell you about how good a team really is. Now the Falcons are coming off a bye week and hungry for a win after a fluke loss to the Bills going into the bye. The Dolphins are a mess right now, and if not for Matt Cassell starting for the Titans last week, and a missed FG by the Chargers, they would be 0-4. They lost 20-0 to the Saints in London and 20-6 to the Jets after scoring a TD on the final play of the game. I don't see how they stay within two touchdowns of Atlanta in this game. Give me the Falcons.

[New York Knight]

SCOTT SPREITZER

NFL | Oct 15, 2017
Bears vs. Ravens

Bears+6½

I'm recommending a play on the Chicago Bears plus the points on Sunday. It takes a little something to drop a game off 7 and that's exactly what happened in this one and we agree with the move. The Baltimore Ravens have been horrible in the passing game and the defense hasn't been able to stop the run. That's not a good combination for a team laying this many points. Baltimore is a bit banged-up in the receiving corps. Jeremy Maclin (questionable) and Breshad Perriman (probable) may play, but both are nursing injuries. Joe Flacco has had just one interception-free game so far in 2017 and may not have his best targets for the entire contest. Flacco and company will face a stout Bears' defense that ranks 8th against the pass and 6th in total yards allowed per game. We also like the fact rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky should have a running game to keep the heat off. Chicago will face a Baltimore defense ranked 23rd against the run, allowing more than 123 yards rushing per game. We like the matchup advantages mentioned and we're recommending a play on the Bears plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[New York Knight]

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Steelers +4.5)

I would have to take the points with Pittsburgh in this one. The fact that Kansas City has started out 5-0 ATS and are the talk of the NFL right now, the public is lining up to take them. This line has been inflated because of that and thus the value here is with the Steelers.

This is also an ideal spot to jump on the Steelers after that embarrassing loss to Jacksonville. Pittsburgh will be 100% locked in for this contest and have owned this series when Roethlisberger has been healthy. In fact, the Steelers are a perfect 6-0 against the Chiefs when Roethlisberger starts and finishes a game.

Both of the meetings last year were pretty lopsided, even though the playoff game was decided by just a few points. The Steelers were up 36-0 in the regular season meeting before the Chiefs added a couple garbage touchdowns late. In the postseason meeting, the Chiefs somehow managed to hold the Steelers to 6 field goals, or that would have been a lot uglier final score.

The biggest thing here is we don’t even need Pittsburgh to win the game outright. Chances are this is a back and forth game that could go either way in the 4th quarter. I’d much rather take my chances that the Steelers win outright or keep it with 4 points, than bank on KC winning by 5 or more.

Pittsburgh is 13-6 ATS in their last 19 following a loss, an impressive 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 road games against a team that is allowing 4.5 or more yards/carry against the run. Give me the Steelers +4.5!

[New York Knight]

R&R TOTALS

R&R Totals FREE NFL Over-Under Sunday 10-15-17

OVER 46 1/2 San Francisco/Washington

[New York Knight]

JACK JONES

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Minnesota Vikings +3

This line indicates that the Packers would be favored by roughly 6 points against the Minnesota Vikings on a neutral field. There's no way the Packers are 6 points better than the Vikings, so the value is on the home underdog here catching a field goal Sunday.

And this is a huge statement game for the Vikings. They are 3-2 on the season while the Packers are 4-1, so they cannot afford a loss if they are serious about winning the division. They would essentially fall three games behind the Packers because of the tiebreaker with a loss. So you can bet that they will be putting their best foot forward here Sunday.

The Packers are the flavor of the week right now after Aaron Rodgers' heroics in Dallas last week. But now he's up against a real defense in the Vikings, and the best defense he has faced all season. After all, the Vikings held this high-powered Packers offense to just 14 points in a home win last season.

Minnesota comes in giving up just 18.6 points and 309 yards per game. And the offense has been pretty good under Case Keenum, especially last week against the Bears. Once Keenum replaced an injured Sam Bradford, the Vikings took off on offense. The Vikings scored 17 points in the second half to win the game. Keenum finished 17-of-21 passing for 140 yards and a touchdown against a good Bears defense that had shut down both Atlanta and Pittsburgh at home earlier this season.

The Vikings have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL, especially in their new stadium. The Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games, including a sensational 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings.

The Packers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS off a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons. I think it's Minnesota that plays with a sense of urgency here, while Green Bay could have a letdown off its big win at Dallas last week. Bet the Vikings Sunday.

[New York Knight]

Pointwise


3-LA Chargers
4-LA Rams
4-Houston
5-NY Jets
5-Tennessee

[New York Knight]

ART ARONSON

1* Free Play Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland is 0-5 and is most likely the worst team in the league. Houston has shown promise with DeShaun Watson under center, but the team took a major hit on the defensive side of the ball in last week’s heart-breaking loss at Kansas City, losing all pro defensive star JJ Watt for the rest of the season to injury. With their bye occuring next weekend before a game at Seattle, it’s also not too hard to imagine the home side looking past their lowly visitor today. DeShone Kizer is no DeShaun Watson, but note that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 17 points or less in its previous contest. Looks like a few too many points, consider the BROWNS in this one.
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