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Friday 11-17-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
My free play for tonight is in the same game I'm releasing the side. I love the Over in tonight's Mountain West Conference showdown between the UNLV Rebels and New Mexico Lobos.
I won't get into this too much, as I don't want to tip my hand as to what side I'm playing, but what I can tell you is that I do not trust either defense in this game.
New Mexico has the much better stop unit, but it also falters against the pass. UNLV falters all around, allowing 461.1 yards per game, which ranks 116th out of 129 teams.
These two are going to put on a show on Branch Field at University Stadium, with a pair of rushing games that rank in the top 22 in the nation. New Mexico (22nd) gains 226 yards per game, while UNLV (19th) rumbles for 239 ypg.
And normally that's a good sign to expect a low-scoring game, as it promotes a running clock and keeps the ball out of the other team's hands. But they also have big-play running backs, and no lead will be safe.
Look for both to hit the 30s, the total to hit the 60s, and my 30 Dime Side to pair nicely with this total going over.
The Knicks head to Toronto after a brilliant homestad and the question is can they bring the fire from Madison Square Garden on the road with them to Canada?
Let's be honest we didn't even think we would be speaking of the Knicks as a team that could be competitive, let alone win at this point and juncture of their rebuilding phase, but here they are in a battle for second place with none other than the team they're playing tonight, the Toronto Raptors.
I don't think the Knicks are ready to beat the Raptors in Toronto but I do feel they will easily cover the spread as they bring confidence from their recent homestand and are not going to get blown out.
A look inside the numbers would support that theory:
Knicks play well with an extra day to prepare, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest. In fact the Knicks are playing well against the number right now in general as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Can't say the same for the Raptors who are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
My Friday free play release is the Clippers plus the points at the Cavaliers.
Cleveland is finally starting to string together some consistent winning - they return home after winning all 3 on the road their last 3 times out! - but with those wins comes the inflated lines they will be asked to cover.
Los Angeles is looking to end a streak of 6 straight losses both straight up and against the spread.
Perhaps the streak hits 7 in a row straight up, but I am going to look for the desperate Clips to at least be close when the whip comes down.
Los Angeles won both series meetings a season ago, look for them to at least be in the "ball park" tonight.
My free play for Friday night will be on the Over in the Pacific Division showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, as the two old school rivals take the court at Staples Center.
Though neither rank in the top 10 of points per game, but they do allow a lot of points. Phoenix ranks dead last in allowing 116.8 points per game, while the Lakers are giving up an average of 106.5 points per contest.
Now the get together for a Friday night clash in L.A., and no matter how good or bad the Lakers are, there is no bigger party in the NBA than a Friday in Los Angeles.
The Suns have gone over in four of five on the road, while the Lakers have soared in five of six against losing teams. Most importantly, these two have gone high in six of the last seven meetings.
Let's keep this 16-5 win streak rolling, as I'm playing the Detroit Red Wings on the puck line tonight, over the Buffalo Sabres.
The Detroit Red Wings come into this clash short-handed, but what I've learned about many teams this season, is when they're up against it, missing key components, they play some of their best hockey.
Tonight the Wings will make up for the absences of Luke Witkowski and Trevor Daley, by taking out frustrations on the Buffalo Sabres with a convincing and momentous win.
Little Caesars Arena will be rocking on a Friday night, and the Wings will respond with the same offensive effort that just drubbed the Calgary Flames, 8-2, on Wednesday. Tonight marks Detroit's third home game during a five game home stand, so the Wings should be fine in terms of rest and fresh legs.
No traveling. No hotel rooms.
Unlike the Sabres, who are wrapping up a three-game road trip, after losses in Montreal and Pittsburgh. They've lost three in a row and six of eight, and now play their third road game in seven days.
NORTHERN ARIZONA AT ARIZONA STATE
PLAY: ARIZONA STATE -23.5
Northern Arizona has one chance to stay in this game at Tempe against Arizona State. The Sun Devils could come out flat off a great win against San Diego State and take the Lumberjacks for granted.
But even if that’s the case, there’s every chance ASU runs away with the game regardless. The shorter shot clock is an upset eliminator of sorts. The weaker teams cannot milk possessions as they have to try and get something up relatively quickly and they’re generally just not good enough to do so.
The belief among many who follow college basketball was that the 30-second shot clock would be a benefit to big favorites, particularly those who like playing up tempo. There simply are not many options for the less entries to keep pace over 40 minutes. Consequently, we’re seeing some really lopsided results in the mismatches and I don’t consider this to be any kind of fluke.
Arizona State loves to run and I don’t see what NAU is going to be able to do as far as slowing things down are concerned. It’s always possible ASU could have an off night shooting, or I suppose the underdog Lumberjacks could outwork the overconfident favorites. But those are variables that fall into the strictly a guess category.
What’s not a guess is that on paper this is a mismatch. Northern Arizona is 0-2 out of the gate. The lopsided loss to Arizona was expected. But the Lumberjacks also lost to Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University on Monday. I have to confess I had never heard of this university. I sense that the typical Embry-Riddle student is probably really intelligent and a great bet to have an immensely successful career. Just not in basketball.
I don’t think the number on this game is high enough and expect the Sun Devils to win by something along the lines of 30 points. I laid the -23.5 with Arizona State.
Northern Kentucky at James Madison
Play: Northern Kentucky
I think that this game is going to be a blowout. James Madison is a train wreck of a program. Lou Rowe has been less than inspiring in his young tenure leading the Dukes. And after finally clearing the decks and dumping most of the guys from last year's team he has started his rebuilding effort in earnest. Northern Kentucky is a team that is much further along. They won 24 games last year and they have several guys that can put the ball in the hole. The inside-out duo of Drew McDonald and Lavone Holland is better than anything that Madison can counter with. And their two wins to start the season weren't even close, including a blowout win over East Tennessee State. This game is being played on a neutral site in Nassau. And I think that Northern Kentucky's experience is going to pay dividends for them here.
The Rebels have allowed 265 rushing yards or more in 4 of their last 6 games. Against the option attack of Air Force, UNLV allowed over 400 yards rushing. That doesn’t bode well for the Rebels defense in terms of being able to get off the field against the ground-heavy attack of the Lobos here. New Mexico has averaged 276 rushing yards per game (and 6.2 yards per carry) in their home games this season. On a 5-game losing streak, the Lobos are favored here with good reason. We look for New Mexico to take advantage of a Rebels team allowing 453 yards per game on the road this season. UNLV, since the start of the 2014 season, is 0-5 SU and ATS in games where the spread ranges anywhere from a 3 point dog to a 3 point fave and that is the case again here. Once again, the Rebels fall short as the Lobos improve on marks that have seen them go 13-7 SU their last 20 home games and 9-3 SU in their last 12 games versus teams with a losing record. Bet New Mexico in this late evening Friday match-up.
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