Thursday 9-27-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, September 27

North Carolina @ Miami-FL

Game 103-104
September 27, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Carolina
81.308
Miami-FL
101.178
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 20
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 18
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(-18); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 5


Thursday
North Carolina got its first win LW, upsetting Pitt 38-35 (+3) at home; in their last two games, Tar Heels allowed 76 points, 448 rushing yards. UNC is 2-3 in its last five games with Miami, but they won last visit here 20-13 (+6.5) two years ago. Road team won last two series games. UNC is 5-2-1 in its last eight games as road underdogs, but 4-6 in last ten games when getting double digit points. Miami covered once in its last six games as home favorites; they’re 11-8 in last 19 games laying 10+ points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall


Thursday, Sept. 27

NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FL...Tar Heels have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late LY. Heels have also covered the last thee vs. Canes, and Fedora 5-2 last seven as road dog. Richt 4-9 last 13 vs. line.

UNC, based on team and series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

North Carolina at Miami
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes from the ACC in a matchup many figured would be a key game in the ACC Coastal standings. Neither team has the record they hoped for heading into the final week of September, but both teams remain without a loss in conference play, with the winner of this game remaining a threat in the quest to reach the ACC Championship.

Match-up: North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes
Venue: At Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 27, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Miami -18, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2017, Miami (-21) 24, at North Carolina 19

After winning 10 games in a row to start last season and reaching #2 in the polls, the Hurricanes closed last season with three straight defeats and Mark Richt’s squad lost in the 2018 opener despite being considered a top 10 caliber team in the opening polls. The Hurricanes weren’t overly competitive in that 33-17 defeat against LSU in Arlington but have since rallied to reach 3-1 ahead of this week’s ACC opener.

The big storyline is the quarterback decision Richt faces this week. Senior Malik Rosier led the team to great success last season with a 3,000-yard passing season while also rushing for nearly 500 yards. He had 26 touchdowns last season but also 14 interceptions and completed only 54 percent of his passes. Rosier had two interceptions in the opening loss to LSU, but had played well the previous two games with wins over FCS Savannah State and Toledo. Last week, Rosier was benched after Miami failed to score on the first two possessions hosting Florida International, even though he attempted only three passes.

Taking over was freshman N’Kosi Perry, a taller and quicker Ocala product that played well in mop-up action against Savannah State. Perry was sharp with 68 percent completions in relief against FIU, leading an eventual 31-17 win in a game Miami controlled with a 31-0 edge before allowing late scoring. Perry does have two interceptions in his 39 pass attempts but also six touchdown passes with a much higher completion rate than Rosier has featured. He didn’t take meaningful snaps in either of Miami’s road games and it will be a quick turnaround with the Thursday game and less practice time with the first team if Perry is indeed starting against North Carolina as most expect.

Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas have provided a strong rushing presence for the Hurricanes as although each has just one rushing touchdown, they have combined for 500 yards with productive averages. Jeff Thomas has been the big play threat in the passing game with a whopping 315 receiving yards on only 12 catches as Miami’s offense can remain capable with either quarterback.

Miami became a national phenomenon last season with the turnover chain and this season the Hurricanes have been formidable on pass defense with four interceptions while holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 49 percent completion rate. Miami has been among the elite rush defenses in the nation with just 2.1 yards per rush allowed in four games with run defense a consistent area of strength since Richt took over. Miami has an even turnover margin on the season and the only defensive touchdown of the season came on a blocked punt and it was also in the fourth quarter of a FCS game that was 56-0 at the time.

North Carolina was in the summer headlines for the wrong reasons with a shoe selling scandal with 13 players ultimately suspended for various lengths staggered over the start of the season. Last season’s passing leader sophomore Chazz Surratt was among those with a four-game suspension, effectively handing the quarterback competition win to junior Nathan Elliott after they split time last season.

The suspension for Surratt is now over even through just three games as the cancelled game with UCF did count. Elliott has been named the starter this week coming off a fine performance in a win over Pittsburgh last weekend. He threw for 313 yards with no interceptions and two touchdowns leading North Carolina’s first win 38-35. That performance was needed after a four interception season debut at California while also struggling in the loss to East Carolina.

The 0-2 start was a surprise for a Tar Heels team that many expected to compete in the Coastal race. The Tar Heels were a disappointment at 3-9 last season but the team played well in the season’s final month and now with the roster more completely intact this is a team that is a threat to make noise in the division race. North Carolina has leaned on Antonio Williams in the ground game with 6.6 yards per carry, so far unseating Jordon Brown who was the team’s top rusher last season.

Run defense has been an area of concern with 4.8 yards per carry surrendered, but the Tar Heels have been fairly tough on opposing quarterbacks with four interceptions for the defense along with only three passing touchdowns allowed. After being -4 in turnovers in the opener, the Tar Heels are even since but the defense has allowed over 900 yards in the past two games after holding California to fewer than 300 yards in the opener.

These teams were on opposite ends of the standings in a late October game in Chapel Hill last season with Miami ranked #8 nationally and undefeated playing as a road favorite vs. a then 1-7 North Carolina team that was 0-5 in ACC play. The Tar Heels competed well with a 7-6 game at the half before Miami went for 78 yards on its first offensive snap in the third quarter. North Carolina still only trailed by four heading into the fourth quarter and had the ball back down five in the final minutes before losing a fumble in Miami territory. The production numbers were similar with North Carolina actually featuring a slight yardage edge but also four turnovers.

This spread suggests the gap between these programs has closed a bit since last season and this is potentially a dangerous date on the schedule for Miami with the Florida State game up next weekend. All eyes will be on Perry in his most significant test with Richt putting himself open to criticism as Rosier has won a lot of games for the Hurricanes. Perry might provide the best hope for an ACC title shot however with this game a big step in the season goals for both teams.

Historical Trends:

-- North Carolina has covered in nine of the last 14 meetings including in each of the past three seasons, winning S/U in 2015 and 2016 before a five-point loss last season.

-- Miami is just 3-8 ATS as a favorite in this series since 2004, but most of the failures in this series have been in Chapel Hill where Miami has covered once in seven tries.

-- Since 2002 Miami is just 31-48 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points, including going 22-36 ATS in Miami and going 3-6 ATS since the start of last season in that role.

-- North Carolina is 13-8-1 ATS in road games since 2014 while going 10-8 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2007.

-- Only twice since 2007 has North Carolina been an underdog of 17 or more points and both instances came in the span of week last season with contrasting results with a 59-7 loss at Virginia Tech and the five-point loss hosting Miami.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remaining unbeaten ATS teams in FBS college football:

Utah State 4-0 ATS
Virginia 4-0 ATS
Washington St. 4-0 ATS
Florida International 4-0 ATS
Texas A&M 4-0 ATS
West Virginia 3-0 ATS
Appalachian State 3-0 ATS
Georgia Southern 3-0 ATS
Syracuse 3-0-1 ATS


Remaining winless ATS teams in FBS college football:

Georgia Tech 0-4 ATS
Wake Forest 0-4 ATS
USC 0-4 ATS
Louisville 0-4 ATS
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS
Oregon 0-4 ATS
Nebraska 0-3 ATS
Texas-San Antonio 0-3-1 ATS
Connecticut 0-3-1 ATS
Arkansas 0-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opening Line Report - Week 4
Joe Williams

After three weeks of NFL action, we have just three unbeaten teams remaining -- the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. In addition to being unbeaten straight-up, they're also 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Will that trend continue this week? So far the bet has been the Chiefs and the 'over', going 3-0 ATS and over the total. If you're been smashing those parlays so far, congrats. They'll put each of those streaks to the test on Monday night in the Mile High City against the rival Denver Broncos.

In addition, Week 4 features the first of the byes, as the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins get the first in-season rests.

Thursday, Sept. 27

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 49)

It's amazing how much of a difference one week makes. The Vikings were on fire, laying the most points of the 2018 season against the Buffalo Bills (-17) in Week 3. It appeared we were on pace for a potential playoff preview featuring a pair of 3-0 SU teams. A funny thing happened, however, as the Bills remembered how to play professional football -- and no one retired this week.

The Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown, but they have issues in the secondary. CB Aqib Talib might need corrective surgery for a high-ankle sprain, and CB Marcus Peters (calf) is also dinged up. The line opened at 6 1/2 at most shops, with Treasure Island opening this game at -6 before getting in line with everyone else. Westgate Superbook and William Hill opened at -7, but are also at 6 1/2 as of Tuesday morning.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bookmakers expect NFL bettors to jump on red-hot Rams' odds after Vikings' Week 3 implosion
Patrick Everson

Kirk Cousins and Minnesota stunningly lost to Buffalo in Week 3, and though early Week 4 action favored the visiting Vikings vs. the Rams, the Superbook expects L.A. money to show up strong.

Week 4 of the NFL season opens with a team coming off a monster upset loss against an unbeaten unit averaging 34 points per game. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

Minnesota went into its Week 3 home tilt as a 16.5-point favorite against seemingly hapless Buffalo. But things didn’t go quite as planned, as the Vikings (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) trailed 27-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-6. Now, the Vikes have a short turnaround on the road, playing the Thursday nighter.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles kept piling up points at a consistent rate in Week 3. After totaling 33 and 34 points in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, the Rams (3-0 SU and ATS) bested the Los Angeles Chargers 35-23 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“We opened this game Rams -7, a 2 point move from our lookahead line (last week) of Rams -5,” Murray said. “We took a bet right away on the Vikings +7 and went to 6.5. But I’m pretty sure we will need the Vikings big on Thursday. Minnesota looks like it was caught looking ahead in a terrible loss at home to the Bills.

“The Rams are definitely the public team right now. They’re scoring points and covering spreads. The public loves them.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 3
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 10-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 27-18-2
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 29-16-2
Against the Spread 26-20-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 24-23

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20

Miami Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins have fired out to a 3-0 SU/ATS record after topping the Oakland Raiders by a 28-20 score. The Dolphins have been particularly solid at home, averaging 27.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 20.0 PPG, and the 'over' has connected in each of their two at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins hold a two-game lead on everyone in the AFC East Division through three weeks and they can take a commanding lead with a win in Week 4 on the road against the New England Patriots, who limp home from the Motor City on a two-game losing streak.

Shuffled Back To Buffalo

-- The Buffalo Bills had been atrocious through the first two weeks, and they entered Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings as a 17-point underdog. Those playing survivor pools were certainly not pleased with the result, and any chalk eaters brave enough to lay the points knew they had a losing ticket early on. The Bills had allowed 39.0 PPG through their first two games, so no one could have seen their stark turnaround coming against a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl. Their beleaguered defense stepped up and held the Vikings to just six points while scoring a season-high 27 points. They had managed a total of 23 points over their first two contests.

Total Recall

-- The five lowest totals on the board all cashed the 'under' this week, as defense reigned surpreme. The lowest total, Chicago-Arizona (39), ended up with a total of just 30 points. The Cardinals fired out of the box with 14 points in the first quarter, but put up goose eggs in their final three quarters. The Tennessee-Jacksonville (39.5) contest was expected to be a defensive battle, but the Titans and Jags took it to the extreme. QB Blaine Gabbert exacted revenge against his former team in a 9-6 slugfest, the lowest-scoring game of the season in the NFL so far. Dallas-Seattle (40), Buffalo-Minnesota (41) and N.Y. Jets-Cleveland (41) each ended up going well under.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 3 was the Sunday Night Football game which was expected to be a shootout, but it never came into fruition. New England-Detroit (55.5) ended up not even coming close to the set total, as the Lions limited the Patriots in a 26-10 victor. The same couldn't said for the other two 50-plus games on the board, as New Orleans-Atlanta (54) and San Francisco-Kansas City (53.5) were both slam-dunk 'over' plays.

-- The 'over' has cashed in all three games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are the only three teams in the AFC with a 3-0 'over' mark so far. In the AFC South, the 'under' is 2-1 in for all four teams. In the NFC, the only team to hit the over in each of their three games is the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the under is 3-0 for the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 3, with the under cashing in both. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 3-6 (33.3%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals WR A.J. Green (groin) left Sunday's game at Carolina due to a groin injury, but he feels he'll be ready for Week 4.

-- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact situation in Kansas City late in the game.

-- Giants TE Evan Engram (knee) was knocked out of the Week 3 victory in Houston due to a knee injury and he was unable to return.

-- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (neck) suffered a neck injury in the third quarter of the game in Detroit and he was unable to return.

-- Titans QB Blaine Gabbert (concussion) started against his former team, but he was knocked out, forcing QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) into action.

Looking Ahead

-- The winless Texans will head to Indianapolis to battle the Colts in Week 4. Over the years it hasn't been a great place for Houston to visit, as they're 2-7 SU in their past 10 visits while going 3-5-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in each of the past nine meetings in Indianapolis.

-- The Patriots host the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami hasn't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, losing nine straight trips. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against the Dolphins, including covers in each of the past six meetings in New England. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Foxboro, too.
-- The Cardinals and Seahawks meet in Arizona, and the home team has really struggled in this series. Arizona is 0-4-1 SU/ATS across their past five home games against Seattle with the 'under' cashing in each of the past three meetings in the desert. In this series, the home team is just 1-8-1 SU across the past 10 meetings.

-- The Steelers will host the Ravens in Week 4, and there has been a huge home-field advantage in this series. The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, although Pittsburgh is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three at Heinz Field. The 'over' has also cashed in three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report

Week of September 24th

Another week of football action in college and the pros is in the books and it was an interesting weekend to say the least. NFL survivor pools across the nation have taken more casualties through three weeks than I can ever remember in recent years, as the Minnesota Vikings were the latest team to be apart of the blood bath with their outright home loss as nearly 17-point favorites vs Buffalo – a game Minnesota was never even close to being in the entire way.

Also, in reference to last week's piece, the 'unders' involving NFC East teams continued to stay on course with a 2-2 O/U record in Week 3. The Dallas Cowboys remain one of two teams left in the entire NFL (Arizona being the other) that have yet to cash an 'over' ticket this year, and with scoring definitely up through three weeks this year across the board, I'm not sure how long that will last.

Conversely, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs managed to stick their middle fingers up at being a part of the “Fade 40 club” with yet another impressive offensive performance to stay 3-0 SU and ATS. After putting up 35 points in the first half, it looked as though KC didn't want to tempt the “Fade 40 club” again this week as they only put up three points in the 2nd half to finish with 38 points. It's the New Orleans Saints turn in Week 4 to deal with that dilemma.

Speaking of Week 4 in the NFL, we've now basically hit the quarter-pole of the campaign and it's a method a lot of NFL coaches like to use to break down the 16-game season. Handicapping can become a little more fluid now too with identities of these squads continually being revealed more and more, and that means more situational angles can get into play.

Let's take a look at a few of them for this week:

Who's Hot

'Overs' for NFL teams off a TNF home game – 2-0 O/U in 2018, 22-11 O/U since start of 2016

A common angle many bettors love to mention each week in the NFL is to back those teams off a Thursday Night football game because they've just had what amounts to a “mini-bye”. Rest is key in the NFL and for those teams who had to deal with an extremely short week, reaping the rewards the following week has to be the goal. But what appears to be the better angle here is to take those TNF teams who were at home and play the total 'over' the number the next week.

We've already seen this angle go 2-0 O/U this season with Philly (home on TNF in Week 1) cash an 'over' ticket in Week 2, and this past week it worked again with the Cincinnati Bengals sailing 'over' the number in their game against Carolina. Whether it's because these TNF home teams get the added benefit of not having to travel on that short week – to or from that TNF game – or it's a simple case of extra rest, prep time, and film scouting – including scouting their next opponent live on Sunday/Monday prior to facing them - we will probably never know. But this trend can't be ignored at this point because it's not like it hasn't been consistent either. Last year saw this scenario go 9-5 O/U and 2016 finished with an 11-5 O/U mark.

Side note for those of that are wondering, those numbers do not include the Thanksgiving afternoon games in Detroit and Dallas every year, but those specific teams went 2-0 O/U in 2017 and 0-2 O/U in 2016 following those Thanksgiving contests.

This means that Browns fans – if they've stopped drinking in celebration from Cleveland's TNF win in Week 3 – better be prepared for some more great play from Baker Mayfield in Oakland for Week 4. It's the Cleveland/Oakland game that fits this scenario in Week 4 and wouldn't you know it we've already seen the opener of 44.5 be pushed up to 45 as of this writing.

Who's Not

2017 One-Year Wonder QB's Case Keenum, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy Garoppolo winless ATS in 2018

There are only three NFL teams that remain winless against the spread through three games in 2018 (Pittsburgh could be the 4th after MNF tonight) and they would be the Denver Broncos (0-2-1 ATS), Houston Texans (0-3 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (0-3 ATS). Those numbers are a complete about face for those respective QB's as Denver's Case Keenum, Houston's Deshaun Watson, and San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo were ATS darlings when they were on the field just a season ago.

Garoppolo's record likely isn't going to get any better as he's feared to be lost for the season with a knee injury which is a shame, but should we be fading these guys/teams in the immediate future?

Regarding Keenum, he parlayed a great season as the replacement in Minnesota last year into a big contract and starting role in Denver, but through three games he has looked like the journeyman backup he was his entire career prior to 2017. There may still be time to give him another week or two given he is with a new team, but the leash can't be that long anymore for Keenum in Denver. The Broncos and Keenum are home dogs against the high-powered Chiefs on MNF in Week 4 which is an interesting spot to say the least in terms of how much trust you want to have in Keenum and the Broncos.

Over in Houston, HC Bill O'Brien appears to be taking ALL the heat for the Texans 0-3 SU and ATS start simply because NFL fans saw how Deshaun Watson torched opposing defenses in his handful of games a year ago before getting hurt. But I believe Watson has to share nearly equal blame in this rough start (if he wasn't off an ACL it would be 50/50), because it's not like O'Brien wasn't the head guy last year during that great run by Houston and those same NFL fans were heaping praise on him for the move. Maybe the Texans (and Watson) are being overly cautious with his return, but the Texans offense just eclipsed 20 points for the first time in 2018 in Week 3 and it was only because they got a garbage time TD to do so.

It may be time for bettors to start really considering that maybe Watson wasn't all he was cracked up to be during that great run in 2017 and understand that the same issue that has plagued Houston since their existence – a lack of a quality QB – is still the issue in 2018. Three games off an ACL I'm willing to give Watson the benefit of the doubt, but a poor showing by this Texans offense as road dogs in Indy this week may be the end of the line for O'Brien in Houston, or maybe even Watson as the starter of this team for a week or two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 1 - 1) at LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/27/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 133-183 ATS (-68.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 145-184 ATS (-57.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 65-97 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, September 27

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 13-2-1 SU in its last 16 games
Minnesota is 6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing LA Rams
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
LA Rams is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
LA Rams is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4


Thursday, September 27

Minnesota @ LA Rams

Game 101-102
September 27, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
126.530
LA Rams
141.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 14 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 6 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-6 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 4


Thursday
Vikings (1-1-1) @ Rams (3-0)— Minnesota threw 55 passes, ran ball only six times in 27-6 home loss to Buffalo LW, NFL’s biggest upset since ’95. Rams lost both starting CB’s LW; Talib is out here, Peters may play. LA won its first three games, by 20-34-12 points, scoring 34 ppg (8 TD’s on 18 drives in two home wins); under McVay, they’re 5-3 vs spread as home favorites. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 12-7 as road underdogs (2-4 last 2+ years); they’ve got no takeaways in last couple games (-4 TO’s). Minnesota won last five series games, including 24-7 (-2) home win LY; Vikings won last three road series games, but last visit to St Louis was in ‘14. Rams converted 16 of 26 on third down last two weeks; they’ve outscored opponents 52-10 in second half.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

Bengals 3-0
Packers 3-0
Chiefs 3-0
Chargers 3-0
Steelers 3-0
Buccaneers 3-0
8 teams tied at 2-1

NFL's Top Under Teams:

Cardinals 3-0
Cowboys 3-0
16 teams tied at 2-1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's remaining unbeaten ATS teams:

Browns 3-0 ATS
Chiefs 3-0 ATS
Rams 3-0 ATS
Dolphins 3-0 ATS

NFL's remaining winless ATS Teams:

49ers 0-3 ATS
Texans 0-3 ATS
Broncos 0-2-1 ATS