Thursday 10-4-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-12
Against the Spread 26-32

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 37-21
Against the Spread 31-27

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 32-26


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Tulane (+14.5, ML +450) vs. Memphis, 40-24
Army (+7, ML +230) at Buffalo, 42-13
Florida (+7, ML +220) at Mississippi State, 13-6
Liberty (+7, ML +225) at New Mexico, 52-43
Virginia Tech (+6.5, ML +210) at Duke, 31-14

The largest favorites to cover
Georgia Tech (-28) vs. Bowling Green, 63-17
Wake Forest (-28) vs. Rice, 56-24
Appalachian State (-25) vs. South Alabama, 52-7
Arizona State (-22) vs. Oregon State, 52-24
Oklahoma (-21.5) vs. Baylor, 66-33

Top 25 Notes

-- The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Penn State lived up to the pregame hype, as it was a classic in Beaver Stadium. That is, unless you had the 'over', as the total (69.5) was never in question with a defense first three quarters. There were just 27 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter before the offenses combined for a total of 26 points. There was the specter of overtime giving over bettors some hope, but that never came into fruition. It's too bad, too, as this one was fun to watch so overtime would have been a treat. The Buckeyes moved to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS, and the 'under' is now 3-1 over their past four outings.

-- Alabama flew out to a 49-0 lead on Louisiana, erasing the 49-point spread by halftime. Unfortunately for Tide side bettors, they took their foot off the gas and the Ragin' Cajuns scored two fourth quarter touchdowns and 14 unanswered points for the backdoor cover, with their final TD coming with 3:58 to go. After opening 3-0 ATS, the Tide are 0-2 ATS across the past two outings.

-- Clemson certainly got a scare, especially when their starting quarterback exited the game and the third-string signal caller entered against Syracuse. The Orange had a 23-13 lead at one point during the fourth quarter, but the Tigers stormed back for 14 unanswered points in the final quarter to avoid a major upset at the hands of 'Cuse for a second straight season.

-- Washington was not about to get bitten by the Brigham Young upset bug. The Huskies fired out to a 35-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter, using their lockdown secondary to stymie the upset-minded Cougars. The Huskies entered the day just 1-3 ATS, and it was their first cover in three tries at home. The 'under' is now a perfect 5-0 on the season for the Dawgs, too.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- North Carolina State kept their record unblemished with a 35-21 victory over Virginia. The Wolfpack improved to 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS over the past three games. If you were an 'under' bettors (53) you weren't terribly pleased about the finish of this one (see below). ... Virginia Tech rebounded in a big way with a 31-14 road win at Duke, serving up the Blue Devils their first loss in five games. After opening 3-0 ATS, Duke is now 0-2 ATS over the past two. ... Miami-Florida paddled North Carolina 47-10 to pick up their fourth straight victory while going 3-1 ATS during the span. The 'over' is also 4-1 in their five outings this season.

-- Michigan State took care of Central Michigan 31-20, moving to 3-1 SU while slipping to 1-3 ATS overall. ... Northwestern nearly pulled off the upset, leading Michigan for most of the contest. However, the Wolverines ended up with the 20-17 win in Evanston, slipping to 2-3 ATS. They haven't covered in consecutive games yet this season and they're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two road contests. ... Nebraska cannot seem to get out of their own way, as Scott Frost slipped to 0-4 SU/ATS after a 42-28 loss to Purdue. After opening 0-3 SU, the Boilermakers have won two in a row and they have covered three straight.

-- Oklahoma slapped the brakes on a three-game non-cover skid with a 66-33 win over Baylor. It was another 'over' for the Sooners, the fourth in five outings so far this season. ... Texas picked up an uneventful 19-14 victory at Kansas State, their first victory in Manhattan since 2002. They're still 0-2 ATS in two games away from Austin this season. Next up is the Red River Rivalry Game against the Sooners in Dallas. ... The side winner changed a handful of times since the midway point of the third quarter in Oklahoma State-Kansas. The Cowboys were laying 17, and they were covering or pushing for a good chunk of the contest. They went up 20 midway through the third quarter, only for Kansas to scored a TD early in the fourth. OK State returned the favor with 6:22 to go to cover agin, but Kansas struck quickly with 4:19 to pull back within 13. After a failed onside kick, the Cowboys ended up with a short field and they scored with 2:38 to go to earn the 48-28 win and cover.

-- After falling last week at USC, Washington State rebounded with a 28-24 win at home against Utah as short 'dogs on the Palouse. The Cougars struck with 4:14 to go in regulation, taking a 28-24 lead on an 89-yard touchdown, flipping the side in favor of the Cougs, and the total (50.5) also flipped on the big play. ... One of the other marquee matchups was Stanford-Notre Dame, but someone forgot to tell the Cardinal. After an emotional comeback last week at Oregon, head coach David Shaw's group was unable to bring it to that high of an emotional level for the second straight week in a tough road outing. The Irish blew their doors off 38-7, improving to 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS. Notre Dame has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season.

-- Kentucky moved to 5-0 SU with a 24-10 victory against South Carolina, picking up their second straight cover for the first time this season. Who had the Wildcats moving within one game of bowl eligibility and the calendar doesn't even read October yet? ... Texas A&M posted a 24-17 win over Arkansas, as they held on for the win but slipped to 4-1 ATS with their first non-cover. ... Florida picked up a 13-6 win at Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen Reunion Bowl in Starkville. After opening an impressive 3-0 SU/ATS, the Bulldogs are 0-2 SU/ATS while scoring just 6.5 PPG in two SEC battles and Auburn looming on the schedule next week.

Mid-Major Report

-- Tulane posted the 40-24 win over Memphis, the biggest underdog (+14.5, ML +450) to pick up an outright victory. ... Cincinnati rolled to a 49-7 win over Connecticut, easily earning the cover as 16-point road favorites. The Bearcats improved to 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS, while the Huskies slipped to 1-4 SU/ATS, and 0-4 SU/ATS in four outings against FBS schools. ... Temple was unable to score the outright upset at Boston College, but the Owls earned their third consecutive cover.

-- It was a topsy-turvy day in Conference USA, as the two championship game representatives from a year ago, Florida Atlantic and North Texas each suffered losses in their conference openers. Middle Tennessee picked up the 25-24 win, posting the go-ahead touchdown with :38 to go to flip the side and deal Owls side bettors a bad beat. FAU slipped to 0-5 ATS. ... UNT was dropped at home by Louisiana Tech, as a blocked field goal sealed their fate. The under has cashed in four in a row for the Mean Green.

-- The game of the day in the MAC was Northern Illinois-Eastern Michigan, as these teams couldn't solve their differences until the third overtime. NIU ended up with a 26-23 road win, and 'under' (50.5) had to sweat out a winning ticket for an extra hour. EMU has dropped back-to-back games in overtime, as they could very well be 4-1 SU. The Eagles are a solid 4-1 ATS so far. ... Miami-Ohio fell short against Western Michigan 40-39, but they held on for the cover at most shops. This line moved from Miami favored by 1.5 to WMU favored by 2.5 during the week, but the sharps got it wrong in this one.

-- New Mexico fell 52-43 to Liberty, in a high-scoring battle, as the 'over' is now 4-0 for UNM through four games. ... Fresno State posted an impressive 49-27 win over visiting Toledo, moving to 3-1 SU/ATS in four games this season. ... Hawaii was back on the mainland for the third time this season, and it ended a lot better than last time around. Well, sorta. They picked up a 44-41 win in overtime at San Jose State, scoring 41 or more points for the fifth time in five games. However, after opening 2-0 ATS they're just 0-3-1 ATS across their past four outings.

-- Troy earned a 45-21 win over Coastal Carolina to win and cover for the fourth straight outing. ... Appalachian State rolled to an impressive 52-7 win against South Alabama, picking up their fourth cover in as many outings. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 so far this season for the Mountaineers.

Bad Beats

-- The Owls of FAU had a 21-3 lead at one point, and it looked like they were going to handily cover a three-point line on the road. However, Middle Tennessee stormed back and outscored the Owls 22-3, including a touchdown and two-point conversion with :38 left in regulation to flip the cover from FAU to Middle Tennessee.

-- Western Kentucky was leading Marshall by a 17-13 score after a go-ahead TD at 6:50 left in regulation. The Thundering Herd posted the TD with 1:44 to go, taking a 20-17 lead to kill moneyline bettors of the Hilltoppers. For those laying three and the hook, the Herd didn't do nearly enough at the end.

-- For those holding 'under' (69) tickets, the lack of offense in the second half of ULL-Bama was nice. However, the Ragin' Cajuns scored a TD with 3:58 to go to not only send the total over, but also flip the side from a push at most shops to a non-cover for Bama.

-- In the UVA-NC State game, there was a total of 53. There were a couple of things that went wrong if you had an under ticket here. With :52 left in the first half, there were just 17 total points on the board. However, the Wolfpack scored 10 quick points in the final minute of the second quarter to take a 20-7 lead, suddenly putting the over on track. It was a defense battle again in the third and most of the fourth, but the Pack scored with 7:25 for a total of 49 points. Under bettors were still feeling pretty good, but then the Hoos moved the ball into the red zone and punched one in with 3:08 to go to push the total over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth big college football weekend to close September. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Michigan State (-27) 31, Central Michigan 20: The Spartans didn’t appear likely to cover trailing 3-0 until four minutes into the second quarter but Michigan State managed to flip the game to hold a 17-3 edge at the half and slipped past the spread momentarily with a 31-3 edge through three quarters. Central Michigan put up 17 points in the fourth to seal the underdog cover in an oddly uneven game with Central Michigan winning the first and fourth quarter 20-0 but outscored in the middle two quarters 31-0.

Northern Illinois (+3.5) 26, Eastern Michigan 23: After falling behind 10-0 early Northern Illinois dominated this game holding Eastern Michigan to negative net yards over nine consecutive possessions. The Huskies only led 13-10 in the fourth quarter and benefited from a missed field goal from the Eagles with about six minutes remaining. The Huskies weren’t quite able to run out the remaining clock and in the final two minutes Eastern Michigan managed to get back into field goal range and successfully forced overtime. Both teams scored with relative ease in the first overtime in the second session NIU was poised to score quickly again but fumbled at the four-yard-line. Eastern Michigan played it safe and set-up a 38-yard kick that was missed. In the third overtime Chad Ryland redeemed himself with a 42-yard field goal as the Eagles took the lead but the Huskies converted two big 3rd downs and got into the end zone for six and the minor MAC upset.

Indiana (-14½) 24, Rutgers 17: The Hoosiers led 24-7 at halftime at Rutgers but wound up unable to score in the second half with a pair of punts and a pair of turnovers in Rutgers territory. After an early fourth quarter fumble from Indiana Rutgers drove for a touchdown a few plays later to get within the spread. The Knights added a field goal after a Peyton Ramsey interception for a touchback but the Knights never got the ball back with a chance to tie down by only seven.

Washington State (+1) 28, Utah 24: After a high scoring 21-21 first half Utah got an early field goal in the third quarter and that appeared like it would be enough with an exchange of six straight punts with the Utes controlling the ground game with a 204-0 rushing edge in this Pac-12 affair. The Cougars got the big play it needed with an 89-yard touchdown pass through a pair of missed tackles with four minutes remaining to take the lead. Utah appeared poised to answer with a 36-yard gain on a 4th-and-10 play just across midfield, reaching the 7-yard-line with enough time to work with but the play was wiped out with a holding penalty and the Utes failed on the subsequent 4th-and-20 attempt.

Western Michigan (-3) 40, Miami, OH 39: The Redhawks led by 13 at the half and still sat up by six heading into the fourth quarter but things got interesting in the final half of the fourth quarter. Western Michigan completed an 89-yard drive to take a 34-33 lead but it took less than a minute for Miami to answer going up by five and opting to go for two and failing. Western Michigan would put together another long scoring drive that featured a 4th-and-10 conversion and also opted to go for two in a critical play relative to the spread with the Broncos favored by -1½ to -2½ most of the week before closing at -3. That conversion attempt also failed and with nearly three minutes remaining Miami had a great opportunity to get back in front. The Redhawks converted a 3rd-and-21 play but then fell short on a 3rd-and-3 opportunity and opted for a 50-yard field goal attempt that was no good. The one-point loss was enough to hold on for a narrow home underdog cover for the Redhawks however.

Georgia Southern (+3) 28, Arkansas State 21: The Sun Belt favorites trailed 7-3 at the half but managed to tie the game at 14-14 late in the third quarter and then at 21-21 with about five minutes remaining. Overtime looked certain as Georgia Southern faced 3rd down near midfield with fewer than 30 seconds remaining but Wesley Kennedy broke free for a 47-yard touchdown run for the upset.

Alabama (-48) 56, UL-Lafayette 14: Alabama had a 28-0 lead not even 13 minutes into this game and eclipsed the massive spread by halftime. A 94-yard pass play with reserves in the game put Alabama up 56-0 late in the third quarter but the Ragin’ Cajuns scored twice in the fourth quarter to take the backdoor cover.

Texas (-8½) 19, Kansas State 14: Texas led 19-0 at halftime with the help of a 90-yard punt return touchdown. Kansas State managed to score on its opening possession out of halftime and then watched Texas miss a field goal late in the third quarter. It took 16 plays and two 4th down conversions but Kansas State went 70 yards for another touchdown to get within the underdog spread early in the fourth quarter. Texas wasn’t able to add points but they forced a 3-and-out on the last Kansas State possession and ended the game taking a knee at the Kansas State 20-yard-line.

Oklahoma State (-17) 48, Kansas 28: The Jayhawks trailed by 20 through three quarters but made a late charge with two touchdown drives in the final frame. Oklahoma State ultimately answered each time including a spread-saving touchdown with 2:38 remaining. On its final possession Kansas wound up losing five yards in four plays as they weren’t a threat to steal the underdog cover back late.

Middle Tennessee State (+3) 25, Florida Atlantic 24: The Owls led 24-10 late in the third quarter but a 19-yard punt handed the Blue Raiders good field position and Middle Tennessee State scored three plays later to take just a seven-point deficit into the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic opted to go for it on a 4th down play just short of the 50 and came up short to shift the field position and after a pair of punts Middle Tennessee State had the ball back just inside FAU territory with almost four minutes remaining. With a 4th down conversion with about two minutes to go Middle Tennessee State faced 4th-and-goal in the final minute and delivered a rushing touchdown. Down one the Blue Raiders went for the win and got the two-point conversion to shake up the early Conference USA race and send Lane Kiffin and the Owls to 0-5 ATS.

Arizona State (-22) 52, Oregon State 24: The Sun Devils had just a 14-point lead well into the fourth quarter before scoring two touchdowns in the final 10 minutes. The first score came after Oregon State failed to score despite reaching the 1-yard-line and the second touchdown came after the Beavers again failed on 4th down in Arizona State territory. Oregon State fumbled near midfield on its final possession when a touchdown would have still flipped the spread result.

USC (-3½) 24, Arizona 20: USC led 24-0 into the third quarter before Arizona finally got on the scoreboard. Down 24-7 into the fourth quarter Arizona took advantage of a USC fumble, scoring on the next play to trail by only 10 with about 10 minutes remaining. USC again fumbled on the next possession but Arizona failed going for it on 4th-and-long past midfield with about six minutes to go. The Trojans opted to also try to pick a up a first down just outside field goal range with about four minutes remaining but came up short leaving the Wildcats in position for a potential backdoor cover. Arizona quickly reached the red zone with a pair of penalties helping the cause and had 1st-and-goal at the 1 to seemingly be in position to deliver a miracle for those on the underdog. It took until 4th down but Arizona did get a touchdown in the final two minutes but incredibly missed the extra-point, as most USC backers escaped holding on to the road favorite cover by a half point.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TULSA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULSA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA ST (2 - 3) at TROY (4 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday, October 4

Georgia State @ Troy
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 13 games on the road
Georgia State is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Troy
Troy is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Tulsa @ Houston
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

Houston
Houston is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6


Thursday, October 4

Tulsa @ Houston

Game 303-304
October 4, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
74.580
Houston
88.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 13 1/2
79
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 18
70
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+18); Over

Georgia State @ Troy

Game 305-306
October 4, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
74.782
Troy
85.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 15 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(+15 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 6

Thursday’s games
Tulsa is 0-3 this season vs I-A teams, losing by 7-8-14 points; they were outscored 55-17 in first half of those games, all which stayed under the total. Tulsa outgained Temple by 103 yards LW but lost 31-17. Golden Hurricane lost three of its last four games with Houston, losing 38-21/38-28 in their last two visits here. Under Montgomery, Tulsa is 10-4 as road underdogs. Average total in Houston’s three I-A games (2-1) is 82.3. Cougars are 3-8-1 in last dozen games as double digit favorites; under Applewhite, they’re 5-2 as home favorites. Houston scored

Troy won four of last five games with Georgia State, winning 31-21/45-21 in last two games played here; Trojans won/covered last three games overall, are 7-10 as home favorites under Brown, 9-17 in last 26 games as double digit favorites. Troy scored 80 points in winning its last two games, after their win at Nebraska. Georgia State ran for 308 yards in an upset win over UL-Monroe LW; Panthers gave up 100 points in losing first two road games this year, 41-7 at NC State, 59-22 at Memphis- under Elliott, they’re 1-3 as road underdogs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Remaining unbeaten ATS teams in FBS college football:

Washington State 5-0 ATS
West Virginia 4-0 ATS
Florida International 4-0 ATS
Utah State 4-0 ATS
Syracuse 4-0-1 ATS
Appalachian State 3-0 ATS
Georgia Southern 3-0 ATS


Remaining winless ATS teams in FBS college football:

Nebraska 0-4 ATS
Florida Atlantic 0-4 ATS
Connecticut 0-4-1 ATS
Texas - San Antonio 0-3-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report

Week of October 1st

The month of October is always a great time of year for sports bettors as you've got college and pro football in full throat, the MLB playoffs on tap (with a few extra games to boot this year) and the NHL and NBA starting up this month as well. There is no shortage of action for bettors to break down and it's only going to get busier with college basketball up next in November. But we've briefly got to look back before moving ahead as last week's topics in this piece had some interesting results.

To start, the trend of 'overs' cashing for NFL teams off a TNF home game cashed another ticket very easily with Cleveland's controversial 45-42 loss in Oakland. For as much sweating as there was for bettors on the side in that game, those holding an 'over' ticket were already counting their money by the end of the 3rd quarter. Riding that trend is now a perfect 3-0 O/U this year and the team next up in that situation is the Super Bowl favorite L.A Rams. The Rams are off a shootout themselves and considering they've scored at least 30 points in all four games this year, if you like the 'over' with them this week (at Seattle with total currently sitting at 49.5) it's probably better to get your money in sooner rather than later. Especially with the Seahawks now missing safety Earl Thomas.

The one-hit wonder QB's ended up going 1-0 ATS on Sunday, although if you just look at their respective teams with Garoppolo now on the shelf, it was a nice 2-0 ATS Sunday to buck their trend. Houston and San Francisco got the job done ATS-wise in tight games, and tonight we get to see if Denver's Case Keenum can make it 3-for-3.

However, this week my focus shifts back over to the collegiate game and some lesser known conferences that don't always get the love (or eyeballs) that they probably should in the betting markets. None of these programs are going to be national title contenders, but your bankroll doesn't care if it's a big game or not, it just wants to grow. Hopefully we can do that by playing on/against a few of these programs this upcoming week.

Who's Hot

Teams from the Sun Belt's East Division – 13-5 ATS in 2018; 4-1 ATS the past week

Games featuring Sun Belt teams are probably most known by casual bettors as the ones they typically skip over because it's these teams that are the ones catching +30 or more points against the Georgia's and Alabama's of the world. Just this past weekend we had Louisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt West Division) getting +49 against the Crimson Tide, a play which ended up getting there thanks to Nick Saban taking his foot off the gas in the final frame. There are some quality football teams relative to most of their opponents in the Sun Belt though, specifically in the East division this year.

Four of the five teams in the Sun Belt East – which includes Troy, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and Coastal Carolina – have winning records SU through five weeks, but more importantly they are 13-5 ATS combined on the season. That number includes a 4-1 ATS record this past week with the only loss coming in a division rivalry game between Troy and Coastal Carolina where one of them had to lose. But Georgia Southern and Georgia State each won SU as home 'dogs, while Appalachian State blew the doors off a bad South Alabama squad.

A 13-5 ATS record though is not something that should be overlooked five weeks into the season now – nearly the halfway point – as these are programs that probably catch a few extra points against the “big boys” simply because of perception. It's going to be tough to find those spots going forward as it's basically conference play from here on out, but for those of you interested in following some of these Sun Belt East teams, you won't have to wait very long. Georgia State visits Troy on Thursday night with Troy laying -17 as of now. Given that Georgia State is the lone team in the division with a losing record SU (2-3) and ATS (1-3), backing the home side may be the way to go.

Who's Not

'Unders' in games featuring MAC East teams – 8-16 O/U combined this year

The conference affectionately known as “MACtion” has long been a CFB conference known for high-scoring games and some very suspect defense (although Khalil Mack came from the MAC). It's a league that made the brilliant move a few years back to switch their schedules around so that their conference games would be featured heavily on their own on Tuesday's/Wednesday's from late-October on (another thing we have to look forward too), as the uptempo style many schools here like to play is a boom for offensive football. We've seen coaches in this conference also you success in the MAC as a launching point for their own personal careers – think P.J Fleck in Minnesota now – as these offenses can be well-oiled machines at times and score with almost anyone in the country. It's the same story this year too, as 'unders' are not something you really want to be involved with in MAC games, especially when programs from the East division are involved.

The MAC East consists of Buffalo, Miami (OH), Akron, Ohio, Bowling Green, and Kent State. In 2018 those programs are a combined 16-8 O/U, and considering only Buffalo has a SU winning record through five weeks, their really isn't much defense being played here. Three of the six teams have point differentials of -37 or more, with the 1-4 SU Bowling Green Falcons a brutal -119 points so far in 2018. How you decide to use this information in the coming weeks is up to you – as fading these teams ATS with brutal defenses might be another strategy to employ – but I can tell you that there won't be many times I'll be looking at 'unders' in games involving these teams in the foreseeable future.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 6 college football bettors jump on Notre Dame's opening odds vs. Virginia Tech
Patrick Everson

Notre Dame is 5-0 SU and easily won and covered the past two weeks, against Wake Forest and Stanford. The Superbook opened the Irish -5.5 at Virginia Tech, and the line quickly went to 6.

Week 6 of the college football season features three teams looking to stay firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, sportsbook supervisor at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 23 Virginia Tech Hokies (+5.5)

Notre Dame won three one-score games the first three weeks of the season, then steamrolled through the past two weeks. After hammering Wake Forest on the road, the Fighting Irish (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) dropped Stanford 38-17 as a 4.5-point home chalk in Week 5.

Virginia Tech was dealt a shocking Week 4 loss, getting outscored 28-7 in the fourth quarter at Old Dominion in a 49-35 setback as a 27.5-point favorite. The Hokies (3-1 SU and ATS) bounced back Saturday at Duke, rolling to a 31-14 win catching 6.5 points, despite not having starting QB Josh Jackson, who broke his leg in the loss to ODU.

“Notre Dame is playing very well right now and coming off a big win against Stanford,” Wilkinson said. “The line has already moved to -6, and we’re anticipating it to be -6.5 or -7 by game time.”


No. 20 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5)

The Red River Rivalry resumes, with Oklahoma putting its perfect mark on the line in a neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl. The Sooners (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) got a huge Week 4 home scare against Army, winning in overtime, but followed with a 66-33 wipeout of Baylor laying 21.5 points at home.

Texas lost its season opener to Maryland, then notched four straight wins to get back on track. In Week 5 at Kansas State, the Longhorns (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) held on for a 19-14 victory as an 8.5-point fave.

“This is going to be a good matchup,” Wilkinson said. “Oklahoma is the better team, so we favored them by a little more than a touchdown. But the Longhorns are going against a Big 12 archrival. I think this line will drop to Oklahoma -7 pretty soon.”


No. 6 Louisiana State Tigers at Florida Gators (+3)

Louisiana State is out of the gate 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), including a key Week 3 upset victory at Auburn. Last weekend, the Tigers flattened Mississippi 45-16 giving 11.5 points at home.

Florida rebounded from a Week 2 upset home loss to Kentucky by rattling off three straight wins and covers. The Gators (4-1 SU and ATS) got through a Week 5 slog at Mississippi State, winning 13-6 as a 6.5-point favorite.

“We got some sharp action early on this game. It’s already down to LSU -2, and it could even be a pick ‘em by Saturday,” Wilkinson said. “These teams always play tight games against each other, and Florida is tough at home.”


No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies (-6)

Kentucky is another unbeaten Southeastern Conference team looking to make some noise. The Wildcats (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won all of their games by double digits, including last week’s 24-10 home victory over South Carolina in a pick ‘em game.

Texas A&M has two losses already, but those came to perennial powerhouses Clemson – A&M fell by 2 at home – and Alabama. In Week 5, the Aggies (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) beat Arkansas 24-17 as a hefty 20-point chalk.

“It’ll be interesting to see which way this line moves. We aren’t sure yet, but 6 feels like the right number to me,” Wilkinson said. “A&M might have two losses, but they were against the two best teams in the country.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DILLION ON THE MEND

One of the top rushers in the nation is hoping to return to action this week. Boston College sophomore, A.J. Dillon's status is up in the air after he rolled his ankle early in the third quarter of last weekend's 45-35 victory over Temple and didn't return. Head coach Steve Addazio had no update for reporters Monday, but Dillon was headed for a historic game at the time of his injury, having racked up 161 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries to that point. Dillon enters Week 6 ranked third in the nation in rushing yards (652), putting him on pace to blow past the 1,589 rushing yards he put up as a freshman.

Bettors should monitor Dillon's progress throughout the week as the Eagles prepare to visit N.C. State. If he misses the game or is hobbled going into the weekend, the Wolfpack suddenly become a terrific cover option; they're -4 as of Tuesday.


LAWRENCE BATTLING A NECK STRAIN

Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has one more ailment to deal with as the Tigers prepare for Saturday's showdown with Wake Forest. In addition to being placed in the concussion protocol, Lawrence is recovering from a neck strain; both injuries were suffered on the same play, one that knocked Lawrence from the game in Clemson's come-from-behind 27-23 win over Syracuse. Lawrence will need to get clearance for the concussion before he can return to practice. Chase Brice, who led the Tigers' late rally against the Orange, would get the start if Lawrence isn't able to return in time.

More quarterback uncertainty could be a problem for Clemson, which has gone just 1-4 ATS on the season and very nearly lost outright at home to Syracuse. Wake Forest is getting 17 points at home, and that number might climb if Lawrence is delayed in his return to practice; the Demon Deacons fell 28-14 to Clemson in last year's meeting.


GANGI OUT FOR NEVADA?

The Nevada Wolf Pack could be without their starting quarterback for Saturday's pivotal Mountain West showdown with visiting Fresno State. Ty Gangi suffered a leg injury in last week's 28-25 triumph over Air Force and missed Monday's practice as a result. Head coach Jay Norvell has suggested that Gangi won't return to the field Tuesday, either. Gangi has been the lynch pin for a Wolf Pack pass offense ranked in the Top 30 in yards per game, having completed nearly 73 percent of his passes for 1,338 yards with 11 touchdowns and six interceptions. He finished with four TD tosses in the win over Air Force.

The downgrade from Gangi to No. 2 option Cristian Solano is significant enough for us to recommend taking Fresno State -12 if Gangi can't go. His absence would also impact Nevada's shot at reaching its team total, which sits at ~24 points as of Tuesday.


NORTHWESTERN ABOUT TO BE GROUNDED

It could be a long, difficult day for Northwestern running backs Saturday as the Wildcats visit the Michigan State Spartans. The Northwestern rush attack has been dismal through the first four games of the season; the Wildcats rank 122nd out of 129 Division I schools in average yards on the ground (94.8) and are one of only 10 programs not averaging triple digits. That mark isn't likely to improve this weekend at Spartan Stadium, with Michigan State having held foes to just 161 rushing yards on 108 carries – good for a microscopic 1.49 yards per attempt. Their 40.3 rushing yards allowed per game is the fewest in the nation.

Granted, the Wildcats had just 64 yards on 28 carries (2.3 YPC) in last year's encounter and still pulled out a 39-31 overtime win. But a similar showing Saturday at Spartan Stadium would make the home side an attractive cover option at -11.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tulsa at Houston
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

TULSA at HOUSTON...Tulsa has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series, though neither of these sides have been too reliable lately, as UH just 9-15-1 last 25 on board and Hurricane 6-10 last 16. Tulsa is 10-4 as visiting dog for Montgomery.
Slight to Tulsa, based on series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TROY...Ga State just 2-6-1 vs. spread last 9 in reg. season. Once-solid road dog mark taking some hits, 0-2 in role already TY. Troy only 2-5 as home chalk LY but has won and covered last 3 in 2018.
Troy, based on recent trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Patriots back in betting form as double-digit faves in NFL Week 5 odds
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady had plenty to pump his fist about Sunday, when New England hammered Miami 38-7. That led to the Patriots opening as 10.5-point Week 5 home favorites against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season puts the Thursday night prime-time spotlight on the defending AFC champion. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)

New England dropped two in a row and didn’t look good in doing so, at Jacksonville and at Detroit. But the Patriots (2-2 SU and ATS) looked like their old elite selves in Week 4, hammering previously unbeaten Miami 38-7 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Indianapolis has quarterback Andrew Luck back this season, but his presence isn’t showing up much in the win column through the first month. The Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) staged a big comeback to force overtime against Houston on Sunday, but ultimately lost 37-34 as a 1-point home underdog.

“We opened this one Patriots -10.5, which is up 3 points from our lookahead number (last week) of Patriots -7.5,” Murray said. “New England looked like the defending AFC champion, and the Colts are coming off an overtime loss and have to go on the road in a short week. Tough spot for Indianapolis here.”

That said, the line ticked down a half-point to 10 on Sunday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Atlanta could certainly be 3-1 at this point, and arguably even 4-0, but the football gods definitely haven’t been on the Falcons’ side the past two weeks. After falling at home in overtime to New Orleans in Week 3, Atlanta (1-3 SU and ATS) gave up a final-seconds score to Cincinnati in a 37-36 Week 4 home loss as a 3.5-point fave.

Pittsburgh has plenty of discord this season, coupled with a lack of Le’Veon Bell, the stud running back who continues to hold out. The struggle continued in the Week 4 Sunday nighter, with the Steelers (1-2-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) losing to Baltimore 26-14 as a 3-point home chalk.

“We opened it Steelers -4 and closed it when the Sunday night game kicked off,” Murray said. “Really tough loss for Atlanta. The Falcons’ secondary looked awful, and they’re in for an even tougher test next week at Heinz Field against Big Ben, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. There will be a lot of scoring in this one.”


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Jacksonville looked like the new “It” team when it rolled past visiting New England in Week 2, only to muddle through a 9-6 home loss to Tennessee the following week. However, the Jaguars (3-1 SU and ATS) got back on track in Week 4, drilling the New York Jets 31-12 laying 7.5 points at home.

Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes has been a huge eye-opener early this season, throwing 13 TD passes with zero interceptions through three weeks. The Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) averaged 39.3 points per game in those three wins, but they still have work left to do in Week 4, traveling to face Denver in the Monday nighter.

“We opened Chiefs -3 (-110), took some money on Kansas City and moved it to -3 (-120),” Murray said. “This line could change, depending on how the Chiefs look in Denver.”


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC final, though neither team is in quite that form. Philadelphia, which lost only three games all of last year en route to winning the Super Bowl, already has two losses on its 2018-19 record. In Week 4, the Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled at Tennessee 26-23 in overtime giving 3 points.

Minnesota got a nice Week 1 win over a then-Jimmy Garoppolo-led San Francisco squad, but is winless since then. The Vikings (1-2-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t quite keep pace with the high-octane Los Angeles Rams last Thursday, losing 38-31 as a 7.5-point road pup.

“We opened Eagles -3 in the NFC Championship Game rematch,” Murray said. “Philly is coming off a really disappointing loss to the Titans, and the Vikings need a win as well to avoid a 1-3-1 start. Minnesota with three extra days to prepare here, in a big game for both teams.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-6-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 27-33-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 33-27-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-31

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7

May Day Mayfield

-- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.

Second-Half Ravens

-- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.

Total Recall

-- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.

-- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.

-- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.

-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.

-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.

-- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.

-- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.

-- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.

-- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.

-- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.

-- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Thursday. October 4

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing New England
Indianapolis is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against New England
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

New England Patriots
New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New England's last 19 games
New England is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis