Service Plays Sunday 10/14/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

SUNDAY, October 14, 2018
NFL -- 1 PM ET
[253] Los Angeles Chargers at [254] Cleveland Browns
PLAY: [254] CLEVELAND BROWNS -1 (+102)
BET SIZE: 3%

They aren't the same ol' Cleveland Browns. The 2018 Browns know how to win games, led by an aggressive defense that gets turnovers. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has pumped life into this team.


LA is playing an early start time on the East Coast, which can't help. The Chargers also have the added distraction of knowing they are flying "across the pond" to London for next week's game against the Titans.


The difference in this game could very well be special teams. LA struggled in that area last season, and nothing has changed in that regard.
=========

NFL -- 1 PM ET
[259] Indianapolis Colts at [260] New York Jets
PLAY: [259] INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +2 (-110)
BET SIZE: 5%

Last we saw these two, the Jets were running for over 300 yards in a 34-16 blowout win over Denver, and the banged-up Colts were getting drilled by the Patriots in New England two Thursdays ago, 38-24. Love when games set up like this.


The Colts have had extra time to rest, heal, and get ready for this matchup. They will be getting back LT Anthony Castonzo and RB Marlon Mack for this one. Castonzo provides a huge upgrade to the Colts pass protection, and Mack will help resurrect the ground game.


The Colts may also get back TE Eric Ebron, who was a full participant in Friday's practice.


On the other side of the ball, LB Darius Leonard returned to practice on Thursday and should play in this one. Leonard has been a huge playmaker on that Colts defense.


The Jets struggle when they can't run the football. The Jets' two wins this season came against Detroit and Denver. Detroit ranks 31st in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.3) and 32nd (DEAD LAST) in rushing yards allowed per game (145.8). Denver ranks 30th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (5.2) and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.6). The Colts, however, rank 10th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.0) and 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (106.8).


The Colts front seven is better than most people think. The Colts are tied for 3rd in the league with 17 sacks. Jets rookie Sam Darnold will be under pressure.


Andrew Luck is the best QB this Jets defense will have faced so far this season (Stafford, Tannehill, Mayfield, Bortles, Keenum). Sam Darnold is the worst QB the Colts defense has faced this season (Dalton, Smith, Wentz, Watson, Brady).
==========


NFL -- 1 PM ET
[261] Pittsburgh Steelers at [262] Cincinnati Bengals
PLAY: [261] PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%

Pittsburgh finally looked like the Steelers of old in last Sunday's 41-17 beating of Atlanta. Now they get the division-leading Bengals, a team they have dominated in recent years. The Steelers have won four straight in Cincinnati, and eight of the last nine.


Cincinnati may be 4-1, but they could very easily be 2-3 or even 1-4. They needed two defensive TDs and 24 fourth-quarter points to beat Miami at home last Sunday.


A loss here and the Steelers would be, in essence, 3.5 games behind the Bengals in the AFC North because the Bengals would own the tiebreaker. How's that for motivation?


The Vegas line on this game at the beginning of the season was Steelers -4, so I feel we are getting great value on PITTSBURGH here.


~~~~~~~~~~
#255 Chicago Bears at #256 Miami Dolphins -- 1 PM ET

THE PLAY: 1% on UNDER 41.5 (-105)

Projected Points Scored = 38

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

NFL Plays:

7-Unit Play. Take #252 Minnesota (-10) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This Vikings team is really good. Their loss to the Bills was something of an anomaly. They are actually one of the best teams in the NFC. Their passing attack is one to fear, and the Arizona Cardinals will do just that. This is the Cards second road game in a row, and the 49ers can in no way prepare Arizona for the way the Vikings will play. Arizona has played three "good" teams thus far (Washington, Chicago, and the Rams), and they lost all three games. The only game that was even close was the Chicago game, and that was entirely due to the fact that Arizona hit for 14 first quarter points. Chicago, out gained and out possessed Arizona in that game. Chicago also missed a first quarter field goal and fumbled the ball away on a strip sack that set up the Cards for their second touchdown. Minnesota won't make those mistakes and they are going to run away with this game. The Vikings have looked good since their Bills defeat. The played the Rams very tough in a 38-31 loss, and went to Philadelphia and won a game 23-21 that really wasn't that close. This is the first time they have been at home in three weeks, and the crowd is going to be electric. Lay the big number here as the Vikings roll.

4-Unit Play. Take #271 Jacksonville (-3) over Dallas (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Dallas stinks. Yes, we know that Blake Bortles can absolutely lay an egg, but in the end the Jags defense will just destroy this Cowboys offense. Bortles and company will make enough plays on the offensive side of the ball to win this game by nearly double figures. The Jags are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on field turf and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, while the Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games versus a team with a winning record, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning home record. Take the Jags in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take #270 Denver (+7) over L.A. Rams (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Rams are not going undefeated. They will finish this season somewhere around 14-2 or 13-3. Yes, they are an outstanding football team, as we can all agree on that, but they are going to trip up. We actually feel that this is one of the spots they trip up. The Broncos have a great shot of winning this game outright. The Rams are banged up at the WR spot, and the Broncos are a tough home team, which was proven in their near victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Look for Denver to play extremely well and jump up and bite the Rams in this one. Oh yeah, they are getting seven points as well! Even if you don't believe that the Broncos win this game outright you have to love the points here. Look for this to be a 3-4 point game either way. Take Denver as the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.

4-Unit Play. Take #276 New England (-3.5) over Kansas City (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Patriots are not going to lose to Andy Reid in New England two years in a row. Yes, the Chiefs are an outstanding football team, but New England is starting to put it all together. The Pats are getting healthy at the wide receiver position and Sony Michel is really starting to emerge at the running back spot. The Chiefs, even though they beat the Jags handily last weekend, didn't look as good as the final score showed, and they barely escaped the Broncos the week before. They won't be that fortunate this weekend. Lay the points on the home team in this one as New England is 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman

6-Unit Play. Take #253 Los Angeles Chargers (-1) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Chargers are one of the top teams in the AFC this year. They have won three of their last four games and their only losses this season are against the Rams and Chiefs, two of the last undefeated teams in the NFL. Philip Rivers is off to one of the best starts of his career. And I think that he will be much better than rookie Baker Mayfield this week. The Browns are coming off back-to-back overtime games. I think they will wear down against this tough Chargers team. Los Angeles easily beat Cleveland last year, 19-17, and they have won two of the last three meetings over the last three seasons. Going back to the preseason the Chargers are on a 6-1 ATS run and going back to last season they are on a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS run. Cleveland is improved. But they were one of the worst teams in NFL history last season and have been one of the worst teams in NFL history over the last two years. The Browns are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games against teams that are above .500. The Browns are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games and 16-35 ATS in their last 52 games overall. I think that this will be a close game. But I think that Rivers will make the difference and get a win here.

5-Unit Play. Take #255 Chicago (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., ., Sunday, Oct. 14)
I will go with the Bears here. They are coming off a bye week and they have one of the best defenses in football. I think that this team is going to be able to force Ryan Tannehill into making some mistakes. And the Bears offense has been improving each week and will be able to take advantage. Chicago is 3-1 ATS in its last four games and they played tough in games at Green Bay and at Arizona. Miami has had back-to-back losses at Cincinnati and at New England, losing both by double-digits. The Dolphins are dealing with a lot of injuries right now and they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after a loss. The Bears are healthy after a week off and they are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a wining record. Chicago is also on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with a lot of confidence here. I see another win for the upstart Bears.

5-Unit Play. Take #271 Jacksonville (-3) over Dallas (4 p.m., ., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
This game looks like a mismatch. I think that Jacksonville will bounce back from a tough loss at Kansas City. And I think that Blake Bortles will bounce back from one of his worst games as a pro last week. He bounced back fro a poor effort against the Giants and led the Jaguars to a 31-20 blowout over the Patriots. He also bounced back from a poor effort against the Titans and led the Jaguars to a 31-12 blowout over the Jets. Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS following a loss and I think that they will take care of business here after losing at Arrrowhead. Dallas has the No. 28 offense in the NFL. They are really struggling to score points and I don't think they will be able to move the ball against Jacksonville's top-notch defense. The Cowboys are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and they are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record. Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. This line has moved from 1.5 to 3.0 and the sharp money is on the Jaguars. I think they will get the job done.

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 53.0 Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1 p.m., ., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This total is too high for this division rivalry game. These two teams have only combined to score more than 50 points once in the last 10 meetings. It has only happened one time in the last nine games between these teams and the 'under' is 6-3 in the last nine between them. The 'under' is 23-8 in Pittsburgh's last 31 road games. This team is not as strong offensively away from home as they are at home. The 'under' is also 16-7 in the Steelers' last 23 games following an ATS win. The 'under' is 13-5 in Cincinnati's last 18 games against a team with a losing record. I think that this will be a hard-hitting games between hated rivals. I will play the 'under' here.
Allen Eastman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

6-Unit Play. Take #276 New England -3 over Kansas City (Sunday, October 14th at 8:20 PM ET)
Take New England ATS as my 6-Unit NFL Smash for Sunday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have the Patriots winning this game by 14+ points at home Sunday night. The Jaguars sure made the Chiefs look good last Sunday with 5 costly turnovers and that will not happen against Brady Sunday night. The Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game and the Patriots are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games when playing a team with a winning record on the road. The Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after putting up more than 30 points in their previous game and Brady will make this Chiefs secondary look bad Sunday night as I have him putting up his best numbers of the season against a bad Chiefs defense that gave up 401 passing yards to Jacksonville, 442 passing yards to Pittsburgh and 418 passing yards to the Chargers. Play New England ATS as hopefully we are moving to 12-1 in the NFL this season if my Thursday Night Football Play won.

5-Unit Play. Take #278 Green Bay -9.5 over San Francisco (Monday, October 15th at 8:15 PM ET)
Take Green Bay ATS as my 5-Unit NFL Smash for Monday night. This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and I have the Packers winning this game by 14+ points at home Monday night. The Packers handed the Lions the game last week with 3 turnovers while the Lions had none. The Packers held the Lions to just 170 passing yards in Detroit and just 94 yards rushing but the turnovers cost them big time in that game. The 49ers have depended on their running game this season, especially in their lone win that came against the Lions where they rushed for 190 yards, however they are now banged up offensively and face a Packers defense that is firing on all cylinders. The Packers have given up just 209 passing yards per game this season and just 88 rushing yards per game at home this season. The 49ers have allowed 30.3 ppg on the road this season and 29.2 ppg overall, and now they face one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with an offense that is getting healthy. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games when playing a team with a losing record on the road and they know that they gave the Lions the game with turnovers last week, so you can expect them to take care of the ball at home Monday night. Play Green Bay ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #252 Minnesota (-10) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
I think this game is going to be a bloodbath. The Vikings already laid an egg at home as a huge favorite against the Bills. That is not going to happen again. Arizona is just as bad as the Bills. Their rookie quarterback has not faced a defense anywhere close to what the Vikings are bringing to this game and this is going to be the most hostile environment that the Cardinals have played in yet this year. Minnesota is off a big win over Philadelphia last week and I think that they are going to build some momentum here. They really are one of the better teams in the NFC and it is only a matter of time before they play like it.

2-Unit Play. Take #261 Pittsburgh (+2) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
I think that the Bengals are frauds. The Colts were driving for the winning score in Week 1 when the Bengals took a fumble 75 yards for a touchdown and a misleading final. They caught the Ravens at home on a short week. The Bengals scored in the final seconds to beat Atlanta by one point. And then last week Cincinnati erased a 17-3 fourth quarter deficit thanks to two defensive touchdowns for a misleading 27-17 win. These guys very easily could be 1-4 rather than 4-1. The Steelers have been erratic all season. But they have played a tougher schedule and been more convincing. I think the Steelers defense is starting to improve and this is a Pittsburgh team that has dominated this series, going 7-1 SU in the last eight and 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings. I think the Steelers find a way to get another win.

1-Unit Play. Take #263 Tampa Bay (+3) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
This play is a little counterintuitive because I know that everyone expects Atlanta to bounce back from last week's loss and because the Falcons have been very good at home over the last several years. However, I think this Atlanta team is off the rails. Their defense is easily the worst in football right now. They absolutely cannot stop anyone at the moment and they really only have about four guys that are legitimate NFL-caliber starters on that side of the ball. They can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. They can't stop anyone. Tampa Bay has spent the last two weeks in desperation mode after getting thrashed by the Bears. Coach Dirk Koetter is coaching for his job. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith is coaching for his job. Jameis Winston is playing for his job. This whole team is on the brink after an excellent 2-0 start followed by a swift 0-2 fall. So I expect a little intensity from this group. They've lost to the Falcons three straight times and after already winning at New Orleans I think the Bucs can get another road win here. There is a reverse line movement in this game as nearly 80 percent of the action in this game is coming in on the Falcons but the line has dropped. I absolutely hate to trust Winston. He is a proven loser. But I just don't see how the Falcons are going to be able to stop the Bucs offense at all. And I don't think that Atlanta, which has had its own offensive issues, will be able to keep up in a shootout. I have this one at 30-28 for the road team.

1-Unit Play. Take #266 Oakland (+2.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
I'm not exactly sure why Seattle is favored in this game. This team has been less than impressive this year and they are not even close to the same team that we've seen the last few years. This game is being played in London so the Seahawks won't have their home field advantage. And I think that they could be due for a letdown after their big swing and miss against the Rams last week. The Raiders are coming off a dud effort at the Chargers. But I still think that this team has been playing better than its record shows. And if they can just stop turning the ball over and start making one or two big plays down the field in the passing game that they could really be OK. I like them to pull an upset here.

6-Unit Play. Take #276 New England (-3.5) over Kansas City (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
How many times have we seen this setup before? The Patriots have been the best bet in football over the last 15 years. Period. They have been one of the best moneymakers in all of gambling during that time specifically because they win these types of games. New England is the favorite on the betting board. But Kansas City is the sexy new team in the NFL and undefeated. The Patriots get to come into this game with the mentality of the underdog. And with the home crowd behind them I think that they are going to play over their heads. I think that Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense will tackle well enough to slow down the Chiefs offense. But I have absolutely no faith that the Chiefs will be able to generate enough stops against Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in football. They can't tackle. They don't get stops. And for as good as their offense has been this team has actually gotten outgained in four of their five games this year. Kansas City should've lost to the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville turned the ball over twice inside the KC five-yard line, had another turnover at half field that led to a Chiefs field goal, and threw a pick-six.

2-Unit Play. Take #255 Chicago (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
The Dolphins are dealing with massive injury issues right now. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil is still limited because of a concussion. If he can't go or isn't 100 percent against the Bears front seven then Ryan Tannehill has no chance. Miami is already down two starting offensive linemen and they will get chewed up by Chicago's pass rush without their best lineman. Bobby McCain, Cameron Wake and T.J. McDonald, three of their best defensive players, are also banged up while several other offensive starters are less than 100 percent. That's a problem against a very physical and well-rested Chicago team. The Bears have had a couple weeks to work on some things and I think that their offense will continue to improve. The Bears are 3-1 right now and really should be undefeated after giving away a game at Green Bay in the opener. Miami has been outgained by an average of about 120 yards per game over their last four games and are coming off a stunning fourth quarter collapse against the Bengals. We'll see if the Bears can keep it rolling.

1-Unit Play. Take #270 Denver (+7) over L.A. Rams (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 14)
Denver isn't a bad football team. They played toe-to-toe with the other undefeated team in the NFL right now, Kansas City, and I think they can put up a struggle against the Rams in this one. The weather forecast is for 28 degrees and snow. That is a huge edge to the home team against the guys from California. Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks aren't 100 percent for the Rams. And if their offense can't rung up 30 points again this week - be it because of the weather, a bounce back by the Denver defense, or the Broncos running game controlling the clock - then I don't know that the Rams can get enough separation to cover this touchdown line. This is a lot of value on an active home underdog.

[hagball52]

Thanks CPAW for all you do.
The Sportsbettingchamp/AKA Tony Chau Invincible NFL plays are on Atlanta and Denver. Teams who have lost 3 straight up and ATS become a 3 game chase play.
Good luck

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

Browns -1
Redskins +1
Texans -10
Ravens -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGASBUTCHER

3* Pittsburgh +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VIRGOBBI SPORTS:

NFL Week 6, 10/14:

CIN -1.5 (-110)
ARI +10 (-108)
CLE ML (-128)
BUF +10 (-109)
CHI -3.5 (-113)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

5% Pittsburgh Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hackman

devils 120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI Teaser

4.5*—minn-.5, seat+7.5, dall+13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Southeast syndicate plays 10/14

Chicago
Washington over
Colts
Tampa Bay
Seattle
Tennessee over
New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang


75 DIME
SUNDAY NIGHT
BAILOUT
GAME OF THE YEAR

New England -3. Buy it down from -3.5

[havoc3011]

Millerlocks

1:00 PM EST NFL LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS PICK: CLEVELAND BROWNS -1 (-115) RISK: 11 UNITS 1:00 PM EST NFL CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. WASHINGTON REDSKINS PICK: WASHINGTON REDSKINS +1.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS 1:00 PM EST NFL BUFFALO BILLS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS PICK: BUFFALO BILLS +10 (-115) RISK: 11 UNITS 1:00 PM EST NFL ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS PICK: ARIZONA CARDINALS +10 (-105) RISK: 11 UNITS 4:25 PM EST NFL BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. TENNESSEE TITANS PICK: TENNESSEE TITANS +2.5 (-105) RISK: 11 UNITS 8:20 PM EST NFL KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS PICK: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5 (-110) RISK: 11 UNITS