Service Plays Sunday 10/14/18

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chris jordan


500♦ Bounce Back
Bank Builder

browns +1

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al demarco

Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner

pats -3.5

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Midwest Handicapping

BEST BETS
TENN +2.5 vs BALT
(NFL GAME OF THE YEAR)
PITT +2.5 @ CINCI
INDY +2.5 @ NYJ
NE -3 vs KC


LIKE
ATL -3 vs TAMPA
MINN -10 vs ZONA
MIAMA +4 vs CHI (Cancelled Due To QB Change)
DEN +7.5 vs LAR


LEAN
BUFF +10 @ HOU
DAL +3 vs JAX
CAR -1 @ WASH


OVER 46.5 GB/SF


Blake Bortles UNDER 270 Total Yards


TRENDS
ZONA 0-9 ATS last nine times they’ve played the 10 A.M. PST game.


Big Ben 25-4 SU playing in Ohio (home state)


Pitt 21-8 ATS last 29 vs Bengals


When the Bengals have a better record than the Steelers. Pitt is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS.


Tennessee 9-1 SU last 10 hope me games


Bill Belichek is 24-6 ATS off of 10 days of rest or more.


Belichek is 23-0 vs QBs Under 25 years old playing in Foxboro


Blake Bortles is 6-26 SU on the road.


LAR #28 Rush Defense vs Denver #1 DVOA Rush Offense


Last 2 games be Washington. Carolina has covered the spread by 48 points.

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Stephen Nover

3* Atlanta -3

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Bondi

7 indy
3 atl
3 lac

[golden contender]

GC: NFL

Sunday card has our NFL TIER 1 Exclusive Side and the 3x perfect Non Conference Total of the Year along with a big 5* Sunday night Side and a 23-0 Early 5*. Tier one and Pac 12 Top plays cash big on Saturday. NFL Comp play below

The NFL Comp play is on the Cincy Bengals at 1:00 eastern. The Bengals have raced out to a 4-1 start and are off a nice come back win over Miami last week winning by 10 after trailing by 17. In fact home favorites off a home favored win and cover by 10 or more Have covered 91% if they were trailing at the half. Cincy has covered 8 straight vs AFC Teams. The Steelers are 0-8 ats off a win ad 1-6 ats after scoring 30 or more. The Bengals have the running game and the passing game to put up points with Pittsburgh and are a shade better on defense. Look for The Bengals to emerge with a win and cover. On Saturday our Tier one side and Pac 12 plays were solid winners. Today we have the Non Conference NFL Total of the year and the NFL TIER 1 Side. There is also a 23-0 5* Early side and Sunday night football. Message or see is on facebook to jump on. For the NFL Free play. Go with the Bengals. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

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Kelso

50 Chicago

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MTi's 3-team, 10-point teaser

5-Star Steelers +7.5, Ravens +3.5
4.5-Star Steelers +7.5, Colts +8.5
4.5-Star Ravens +3.5, Colts +8.5

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MTI

4.5-Star Steelers +1.5 over Bengals - The Bengals are off a 27-17 win over the Dolphins in which they held Miami to 297 yards of offense. This activates a system that has been perfect since 2003. Home favorites over a divisional opponent that have a record of at least 400 are 0-20 ATS when they are off a TD-plus win in which they held their opponent to 117.5-plus yards less than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:

HF and DIV and p:H and p:margin>=7 and po:TY-tA(po:TY) <= -117.5 and WP>=40 and date>=20031100

These home favorites are only 7-14 SU.

As a team, the Bengals are 0-8 ATS at home off a straight up win as a favorite when their rushing yards have increased in each of the past two games, losing every game straight up despite being favored by an average of 1 point. The SDQL text is:

team=Bengals and H and p:F and ppp:RY
This is the type of game when the Steelers play their best; on the road facing a team that has a better record. Pittsburgh is 10-0 ATS since 2008 (Tomlins second year as head coach) on the road off a home game vs a team that is ahead of them in the standings. Despite being a one-point dog on the average, the Steelers won EVERY game straight up. This one got us a big FIVE-star winner on the Steelers +3.5 over the Chiefs in week 6 last season. The Steelers won 19-13. The SDQL text is:

team=Steelers and A and p:H and WP= 2008

Cincinnati has forced an average of only three punts per game his season and this is dead last in the league. The Steelers have dominated similar teams, going 9-0 ATS on the road when the line is within three points of pick and they are facing a team that has forced fewer than four punts per game season-to-date, winning every game straight up. The SDQL text is:

team=Steelers and A and -3<=line<=3 and oA(ounts)<4 and date>=19911110

The fact that the Steelers are a dog should really have them motivated here.

MTis FORECAST: Steelers 23 BENGALS 17

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MTI

4.5-Star PATRIOTS -3.5 over Chiefs - The Chiefs are off a double-digit home win over the Jaguars to move to 5-0 on the season. This has not been a good spot for Kansas City, as they are 0-9 ATS (-14.39 ppg) as a road dog vs a non-divisional opponent off a double-digit win as a favorite. The SDQL text is:

team=Chiefs and AD and NDIV and p:F and p:margin>=10 and season >= 1993

Since Andy Reid has been their head coach, the Chiefs are 0-4 SU and ATS in this spot, failing to cover by an average of 14.75 ppg.

The Chiefs are also 0-8 ATS on artificial turf when they are off a TD-plus win and they had 32-plus minutes of possession time in each of their last two games. The SDQL here is:

team=Chiefs and surface=artificial and p:margin>=7 and 32 * 60
The Chiefs have averaged 14.4 passing first downs per game this season and New England has a long history of being underestimated vs a team that moves the chains effectively through the air. The Patriots are 21-0 ATS on artificial turf vs a non-divisional opponent that is not winless on the season and has averaged at least 12.75 passing first downs per game. The SDQL text is:

team = Patriots and surface = artificial and NDIV and oA(PFD) >= 12.75 and o:wins>0 and date >= 20121000

New England has won these games by an average of 17.33 ppg.

The Patriots are also at their best vs a team that is on a winning streak. New England is a soul-crushing 12-0 SU and 12-0 ATS when hosting a team that has won at least their last three games. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Patriots and H and o:streak>=3 and season >= 2012

The average final score vs these teams has been: Patriots 38.4, Opponent 18.3. This already cashed once for us this season when the Patriots embarrassed the 3-0 Dolphins by a 38-7 final score.

Finally, the Patriots are 9-0 ATS over the past ten seasons as a favorite on artificial turf vs a team with a better record. The SDQL text is:

team=Patriots and F and surface=artificial and WP= 2009 Patriots are

The Patriots already have two losses and the Chiefs have none. If the Patriots are going to face the Chiefs in the playoffs, they want to be at home. A loss here will make that virtually impossible, as they will fall to three games behind them in the standings and they will lose the tie-breaker. In Belichick we trust.

MTis FORECAST: PATRIOTS 33 Chiefs 17

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MTI

Selection
5-Star Jaguars at Cowboys OVER 39.5 - The Cowboys lost to their geographic rival, the Houston Texans 19-16 in overtime. Dallas Head Coach, Jason Garrett was roasted for his conservative play calling; especially in overtime. We expect Dallas to be more aggressive here as a result. We are going over this low number.

It is easy to cite the fact that the Cowboys like to run the ball as evidence for a low scoring game. But this is why the OU line is so low. In fact, road teams with fewer than ten losses on the season are 22-0 OU when the line is within three points of pickem and they are facing a non-divisional foe that has averaged fewer than 30 passes and more than three rushing first downs per game. The SDQL text is:

A and losses<10 and -3<=line<=3 and NDIV and oA(passes)<=30 and oA(RFD)>3 and date>=20151011

This one was only 2-0 OU in 2016, but it was 11-0 OU in 2017 and it is 4-0 OU already this season.

The Jaguars themselves are 11-0 OU when the line is within 3 of pick and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that is averaging less than 30 passes per game, going over by an average of 13.45 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Jaguars and -3<=line<=3 and NDIV and oA(passes)<30 and date>=20061001

It is also worth mentioning that Jacksonville is a franchise perfect 8-0 OU on the road when the line is within three of pick and they are off a loss as a dog in which they outgained their opponent. The Jags have zoomed over the number by an average of 16.94 ppg in this spot.

The Cowboys allowed 374 passing yards to the Texans last week, while accumulating only 194 yards through the air themselves. This lights the switch on the following system: NFL teams are 17-0 OU at home vs a non-divisional foe when the line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they were not a 3-plus point favorite and allowed at least 100 more passing yards than their season-to-date average. The SDQL text is:

H and -3<=line<=3 and NDIV and p:line>-3 and Average(po:PY@po:team and po:season=season) - po:PY <= -100 and date>=20160000

This one is 5-0 OU THIS season, with the latest the Jets 34-16 win over the Broncos last week.

As a team, the Cowboys are 8-0 OU as a home dog to a team that allowed 375-plus yards of offense and at least 25 minutes of possession time in their last game. Dallas has gone over the total by an average of 18.31 ppg. Check it out with this SDQL text:

team=Cowboys and HD and opo:TOP/60>25 and opo:TY>375 and season >= 2002

Dallas is now 2-3 on the season. They have scored on only 27.7% of their offensive drives, which is 30th in the league and a whopping 39.8% of their points have been from field goals. If Dallas fails to get to twenty points here and loses, Jason Garrett will become a heavy favorite on the First NFL Head Coach to be Fired odds board. He cant be passive and accept his fate. The OVER is the right play.

MTis FORECAST: COWBOYS 27 Jaguars 23

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BLAZER:
4 Rams -6.5
3 Chiefs +3.5

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Marc Lawrence

Play of the month Pitt + 1

[uwinnow]

North Coast MARQUEE TONIGHT Patriots

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H&H Sports (NFL Early Play) - 3* Browns/Chargers Under 47