Monday 11-19-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON $12,000 IN 2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2018 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19, 2018 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19, 2018 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 BONITA ROCK 1/1

# 10 MADRUGADOR 5/1

# 3 BLACK CAUCUS 10/1

I give my vote to BONITA ROCK here. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 90 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this group. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group of horses lately. Has performed soundly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 90 avg speed fig. MADRUGADOR - Could beat this group given the 77 speed figure garnered in his last outing. BLACK CAUCUS - Has performed soundly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 87 avg speed figure. Has longshot possibilities and could win at boxcar odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 85

BENJAMIN FRANKLIN S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD REGISTERED MASSACHUSETTS BREDS WHICH HAVE NOT WON A SWEEPSTAKES OF $50,000 OR MORE IN 2018 OR MASSACHUSETTS SIRED . FREE NOMINATION. $50 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND START. THE ADDED MONEY AND ALL FEES TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH, SEVENTH AND


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 SAINT ALFRED 7/5

# 5 GRADY 8/5

# 1 J. C. INDY 12/1

SAINT ALFRED figures to be the bet in here. Must be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. He has a very good distance/surface win record - 3 for 8. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this field in his last race. GRADY - Clarke has him trained soundly to break promptly out of the starting gate. Have to sense that this horse will do well again today. J. C. INDY - Is tough not to look at based on speed figures which have been very good - 70 avg - of late. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Hernandezsanch will almost certainly have this gelding in excellent position to win the affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:19pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 ELDORA (ML=6/1)
#6 HERAWAY (ML=2/1)


ELDORA - When this jock and handler team up you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Hawthorne have been fabulous together. It looks like the race should set up for a closer. This filly's running style fits the bill nicely. Sub-par try last time around the track at Parx Racing was due to the off-going (she ended up fifth). Have to do better in this race on a fast track. This horse is uppermost in earnings per start. She looks solid in today's event. HERAWAY - The jockey and trainer combination have a favorable ROI when they join forces. Guerrero is giving this one Lasix for the first time. A solid move, in my opinion.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MISS FANCY NANCY (ML=3/1), #3 PADRINONEVERQUITS (ML=4/1), #2 UNSHACKLED (ML=5/1),

MISS FANCY NANCY - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line odds of 3/1 to bet on this thoroughbred. PADRINONEVERQUITS - I find it hard to wager on any thoroughbred in a sprint race at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last couple of months. UNSHACKLED - In any affair of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in sprint events of late.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HERAWAY - My data on this animal shows Guerrero has worked her at least 3 times over the Parx Racing surface. A good sign she's in-to-win right here in this race.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #5 ELDORA to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park
Remington Park - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)


Claiming $15,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $14,850 • Post: 3:28P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CEDAR SAGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the high est average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CURMIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ROCKY BOY INDIAN : Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
CEDAR SAGE
7/2

9/2
6
CURMIT
8/5

5/1
5
ROCKY BOY INDIAN
8/1

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
CEDAR SAGE
4

7/2
Front-runner
85

84

73.0

81.7

73.7
3
MAHALO JOHN
3

5/1
Alternator/Front-runner
82

80

68.2

71.6

62.6
7
TEXAS MUNNY MAN
7

20/1
Stalker
79

71

78.7

70.2

62.7
6
CURMIT
6

8/5
Stalker
84

86

76.6

80.6

75.6
8
CATCHASHOOTINGSTAR
8

10/1
Stalker
73

76

63.9

66.8

56.3
5
ROCKY BOY INDIAN
5

8/1
Stalker
87

78

56.9

76.8

70.3
2
KIRK OF DIAMONDS
2

5/1
Trailer
80

74

63.4

69.8

59.8
1
SPRINGTIME MOJO
1

12/1
Trailer
81

76

41.2

69.6

54.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #4 - Post: 2:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 63

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 WELLDIDYOUGETIT (ML=3/1)


WELLDIDYOUGETIT - A wise man taught me to wager on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this animal. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 49 to 56 to 58 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 KINSALE WARRIOR (ML=9/5), #5 CAVA HOYOS (ML=2/1), #6 PEGASUS JOHNNY (ML=8/1),

KINSALE WARRIOR - Where is the speed? None to be found in here to set things up for this thoroughbred. CAVA HOYOS - Difficult to keep chasing this sort of 'hanger' horse. Unlikely that the speed fig he recorded on Nov 2nd will be enough in this clash.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 WELLDIDYOUGETIT to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA
ZIA - Race 10

$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .50 Super Hi- 5 Jackpot/ 2nd Half Late Daily Double 3rd Leg Pick 3/ 4th Leg Pick 4


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 86 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 4:03P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 19, 2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Trailer. EL TOVAR is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EL TOVAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
12
EL TOVAR
3/1

1/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
SILVER CANDY
4

20/1
Front-runner
78

75

67.3

64.9

49.4
3
TAMAIT (FR)
3

6/1
Front-runner
86

77

52.4

76.6

69.1
1
DE FACTO
1

12/1
Stalker
89

83

63.8

81.0

77.5
6
AUSSIE ROCKS (GB)
6

4/1
Stalker
83

76

53.0

69.2

58.2
2
TIZPAT
2

7/2
Stalker
77

78

45.0

69.8

60.3
7
STAND UP STAND OUT
7

10/1
Trailer
79

63

34.8

62.2

43.2
12
EL TOVAR
12

3/1
Alternator/Trailer
107

106

83.1

99.6

97.1
9
TALENT RISK
9

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
86

67

68.4

67.4

53.9
8
WHERE'S THE MOON
8

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80

64

63.2

63.6

48.6
11
AVALO MAGNIFICENT
11

50/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67

66

61.2

49.8

27.3
5
CLASSIC GENT
5

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
82

83

54.4

58.6

41.1
10
RISKIN
10

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
76

74

54.0

51.2

34.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Nov. 19

KANSAS CITY vs. L.A. RAMS (at Estadio Azteca, Mexico City) (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 8-2 vs. line TY, and McVay just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread since late LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

An MRI has confirmed that Rams' WR Cooper Kupp suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's game vs. the Seahawks. Obviously, out for the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Monday. November 19

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (9 - 1) vs. LA RAMS (9 - 1) - 11/19/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 188-237 ATS (-72.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-100 ATS (-44.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-101 ATS (-43.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 11

Trend Report

Monday. November 19

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11


Monday, November 19

Kansas City @ LA Rams

Game 475-476
November 19, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.160
LA Rams
137.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+4); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 11

Monday

Chiefs (9-1) @ Rams (9-1)— Total of 63.5 is highest-listed total in NFL history. Game was moved to LA because field in Mexico City is messed up. Kansas City won its last four games; LW was only 2nd time this year they scored less than 30 points, first time they averaged less than 7.6 yards/pass attempt. Rams are 5-0 SU at home[ they covered only one of last six games; they’ve given up 27+ points in five of last seven games. Former Chiefs’ CB Peters will be huge in this game, one way or other; he had rough day in Week 9 loss to Saints. Chiefs won last six series games; Rams’ last series win was 16-0 in ’94, last time they faced Montana. Rams practiced in Colorado all week, even after game was put back in LA. Under is 5-2 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Opening Line Report - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?

On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.

Monday, Nov. 19

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)

The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.

The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Games to Watch - Week 11

The top teams in each of the conferences are starting to pull away from the pack, but there are still plenty of teams below the top two spots in the AFC and NFC with a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

The final few weeks of the season will sort out the men from the boys, as those teams currently sitting on the edge will either step up or fade away. There are a lot of important games on the NFL Week 11 schedule, starting on Thursday night with a crucial NFC match-up.

Let’s take a closer look at four games that should really be required viewing in Week 11.


Kansas City Chiefs (+2½) at Los Angeles Rams (-2½)

After a slew of mediocre Monday night match-ups, we finally get an absolute beauty in Week 11. The Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, while the Rams are right up there in the NFC. Both of these teams are dynamic on the offensive side of the football, which may explain why the point total has been set at over 60 points for this one. We are in for a good old-fashioned slugfest here, as well as a game that may come down to who gets the ball last. I’m giving a slight edge to the Rams in a game that's expected to be played in Mexico City.