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MNF - Chiefs at Rams
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Chiefs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread for only the second time this season as Kansas City held off Arizona at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-14 as 16 ½-point favorites. The Cardinals gave everything the Chiefs could handle as Arizona trailed Kansas City by six points heading into the fourth quarter. Spencer Ware’s three-yard touchdown run early in the fourth pushed the Chiefs to a 12-point lead, but Kansas City couldn’t produce any more offense in final few possessions to result in the non-cover.
Patrick Mahomes threw for fewer than 300 yards for only the second time this season and the first time since Week 1 as the Chiefs’ quarterback posted 249 yards and two touchdown passes. Mahomes didn’t throw an interception for the first time since Week 4, while hooking up with Tyreek Hill on both touchdown tosses. Hill finished with 117 yards on seven catches, as Kansas City won its eighth consecutive regular season game at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Rams (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) rebounded from its only loss of the season by holding off the Seahawks, 36-31 at the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles failed to cover against Seattle for the second time this season, as the Rams were laying 10 points last Sunday. The Rams had an opportunity to cash in spite of falling behind 14-7 early as L.A. stormed back to lead 36-24 in the fourth quarter on a Brandin Cooks nine-yard touchdown run.
The Seahawks picked up the cover on a late Russell Wilson touchdown pass, dropping the Rams to 1-6 ATS in the last seven games. Quarterback Jared Goff put together a solid afternoon by throwing for 318 yards and two touchdowns, while MVP candidate Todd Gurley rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown for the Rams. The major concern was Seattle rushing for 273 yards on the Rams’ defense, which had allowed 105 yards on the ground through the first nine games.
MOVING FROM MEXICO
This showdown was originally supposed to take place at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, but the game was moved to the Coliseum due to poor field conditions. Since the Rams are listed as the home team, the game shifted back to Los Angeles according to NFL rules which state if there are any issues at a stadium in international contests, it will be moved to the site of the home team.
ROAD-FIELD ADVANTAGE
Who says the Chiefs only thrive at Arrowhead Stadium? Andy Reid’s squad has covered in all five games away from Kansas City this season, while winning four times. The only loss came in the Week 6 shootout loss at New England, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. This is the fourth time this season that Kansas City will be listed as an underdog, as the Chiefs have already won outright against the Chargers and Steelers on the highway.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chiefs have captured each of the last three meetings with the Rams as this is the first matchup between the teams since the team moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles. When these teams were neighbors in Missouri, the Chiefs won six matchups from 1997 through 2014, as Kansas City blew out the Rams in the most recent meeting four seasons ago, 34-7. The Rams last beat the Chiefs in 1994 at Arrowhead Stadium, 16-0 as 14 ½-point underdogs.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Kansas City has won three straight Monday night contests since the start of 2017, including a 27-23 victory at Denver in Week 4 as 3 ½-point favorites. Los Angeles is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after routing Oakland in the opener, 33-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. The Rams are hosting their first Monday night game since moving to L.A., while the franchise is playing at home on a Monday for the first time since hosting the 49ers in St. Louis in 2014.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson gives his take on this matchup, first on the impact of the dynamic offenses, “The young quarterbacks have both emerged as serious MVP candidates with Mahomes featuring 31 touchdown passes and the 2nd best quarterback rating in the league in his first season as a starter. Goff has only 16 fewer passing yards through 10 games and a higher completion percentage with one less interception. Gurley and Kareem Hunt are both in the top four in rushing on the season with Gurley only 12 yards short of 1,000 already this season while Hill and Cooks have been among the league’s top receivers.”
From a totals perspective, this sky-high number may be hard to eclipse, but it’s not a crazy notion that the OVER can cash according to Nelson, “Monday’s game will feature perhaps the highest total in NFL history priced at 63. Since 1980, only two NFL games have closed with a total of 60 or higher with the last instance being the Saints playoff win over the Lions, 45-28 in January of 2012 with a total of 60. A Rams/49ers game in 2000 featured a total of 62, staying just UNDER in a 34-24 Rams win at Candlestick. Since 2000, 12 games have closed with a total of 58 or higher with the OVER hitting in 10 of those 12 games.
GAME PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 325 ½ (-110)
UNDER 325 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (-150)
UNDER 2 ½ (+130)
Total Rushing Yards – Kareem Hunt
OVER 85 ½ (-110)
UNDER 85 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 90 ½ (-110)
UNDER 90 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce
OVER 87 ½ (-110)
UNDER 87 ½ (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards – Jared Goff
OVER 320 ½ (-110)
UNDER 320 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff
OVER 2 ½ (-110)
UNDER 2 ½ (-110)
Total Rushing Yards – Todd Gurley
OVER 108 ½ (-110)
UNDER 108 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Robert Woods
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
When the line first opened last Sunday, the Rams were listed as one-point favorites assuming the game was going to be played in Mexico City. Now that the contest has moved to Los Angeles, the Rams have been vaulted to a three-point favorite and are even at 3 ½ at several books. The total is by far the highest in the NFL this season at 63 as the Rams and Chiefs have each eclipsed this number four times in 2018.
Kevin Rogers
LAST WEEK
The Chiefs (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread for only the second time this season as Kansas City held off Arizona at Arrowhead Stadium, 26-14 as 16 ½-point favorites. The Cardinals gave everything the Chiefs could handle as Arizona trailed Kansas City by six points heading into the fourth quarter. Spencer Ware’s three-yard touchdown run early in the fourth pushed the Chiefs to a 12-point lead, but Kansas City couldn’t produce any more offense in final few possessions to result in the non-cover.
Patrick Mahomes threw for fewer than 300 yards for only the second time this season and the first time since Week 1 as the Chiefs’ quarterback posted 249 yards and two touchdown passes. Mahomes didn’t throw an interception for the first time since Week 4, while hooking up with Tyreek Hill on both touchdown tosses. Hill finished with 117 yards on seven catches, as Kansas City won its eighth consecutive regular season game at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Rams (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) rebounded from its only loss of the season by holding off the Seahawks, 36-31 at the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles failed to cover against Seattle for the second time this season, as the Rams were laying 10 points last Sunday. The Rams had an opportunity to cash in spite of falling behind 14-7 early as L.A. stormed back to lead 36-24 in the fourth quarter on a Brandin Cooks nine-yard touchdown run.
The Seahawks picked up the cover on a late Russell Wilson touchdown pass, dropping the Rams to 1-6 ATS in the last seven games. Quarterback Jared Goff put together a solid afternoon by throwing for 318 yards and two touchdowns, while MVP candidate Todd Gurley rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown for the Rams. The major concern was Seattle rushing for 273 yards on the Rams’ defense, which had allowed 105 yards on the ground through the first nine games.
MOVING FROM MEXICO
This showdown was originally supposed to take place at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, but the game was moved to the Coliseum due to poor field conditions. Since the Rams are listed as the home team, the game shifted back to Los Angeles according to NFL rules which state if there are any issues at a stadium in international contests, it will be moved to the site of the home team.
ROAD-FIELD ADVANTAGE
Who says the Chiefs only thrive at Arrowhead Stadium? Andy Reid’s squad has covered in all five games away from Kansas City this season, while winning four times. The only loss came in the Week 6 shootout loss at New England, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as 3 ½-point underdogs. This is the fourth time this season that Kansas City will be listed as an underdog, as the Chiefs have already won outright against the Chargers and Steelers on the highway.
SERIES HISTORY
The Chiefs have captured each of the last three meetings with the Rams as this is the first matchup between the teams since the team moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles. When these teams were neighbors in Missouri, the Chiefs won six matchups from 1997 through 2014, as Kansas City blew out the Rams in the most recent meeting four seasons ago, 34-7. The Rams last beat the Chiefs in 1994 at Arrowhead Stadium, 16-0 as 14 ½-point underdogs.
MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Kansas City has won three straight Monday night contests since the start of 2017, including a 27-23 victory at Denver in Week 4 as 3 ½-point favorites. Los Angeles is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after routing Oakland in the opener, 33-13 as a 6 ½-point favorite. The Rams are hosting their first Monday night game since moving to L.A., while the franchise is playing at home on a Monday for the first time since hosting the 49ers in St. Louis in 2014.
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
NFL expert Joe Nelson gives his take on this matchup, first on the impact of the dynamic offenses, “The young quarterbacks have both emerged as serious MVP candidates with Mahomes featuring 31 touchdown passes and the 2nd best quarterback rating in the league in his first season as a starter. Goff has only 16 fewer passing yards through 10 games and a higher completion percentage with one less interception. Gurley and Kareem Hunt are both in the top four in rushing on the season with Gurley only 12 yards short of 1,000 already this season while Hill and Cooks have been among the league’s top receivers.”
From a totals perspective, this sky-high number may be hard to eclipse, but it’s not a crazy notion that the OVER can cash according to Nelson, “Monday’s game will feature perhaps the highest total in NFL history priced at 63. Since 1980, only two NFL games have closed with a total of 60 or higher with the last instance being the Saints playoff win over the Lions, 45-28 in January of 2012 with a total of 60. A Rams/49ers game in 2000 featured a total of 62, staying just UNDER in a 34-24 Rams win at Candlestick. Since 2000, 12 games have closed with a total of 58 or higher with the OVER hitting in 10 of those 12 games.
GAME PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook
Total Gross Passing Yards – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 325 ½ (-110)
UNDER 325 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Patrick Mahomes
OVER 2 ½ (-150)
UNDER 2 ½ (+130)
Total Rushing Yards – Kareem Hunt
OVER 85 ½ (-110)
UNDER 85 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Tyreek Hill
OVER 90 ½ (-110)
UNDER 90 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Travis Kelce
OVER 87 ½ (-110)
UNDER 87 ½ (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards – Jared Goff
OVER 320 ½ (-110)
UNDER 320 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Jared Goff
OVER 2 ½ (-110)
UNDER 2 ½ (-110)
Total Rushing Yards – Todd Gurley
OVER 108 ½ (-110)
UNDER 108 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Brandin Cooks
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)
Total Receiving Yards – Robert Woods
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)
LINE MOVEMENT
When the line first opened last Sunday, the Rams were listed as one-point favorites assuming the game was going to be played in Mexico City. Now that the contest has moved to Los Angeles, the Rams have been vaulted to a three-point favorite and are even at 3 ½ at several books. The total is by far the highest in the NFL this season at 63 as the Rams and Chiefs have each eclipsed this number four times in 2018.
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