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Freddy Wills:
Premium Weekly Newsletter - Surprise Championship Edition
Track Last Year & This Year's results. 10-6 ATS + 11.1% ROI
Clemson/Alabama Over 57 3.3% play - I actually think the first half under has some value at 28, but won't personally play it. Super Bowls, and Championship games tend to come out with a more conservative approach. When these two teams met in 2016 & 2017 in this game the first half combined for 21 and 28 points followed by second halfs of 45 and 57 points. If you want more value on the over here, and have the ability to bet it live or at half time you could wait and probably get a better number than 57.
Weather/Field Conditions - It was raining yesterday and this morning in Santa Clara, and that has started to drive the total down along with the fact that there is a notion that field conditions here are not good. Two college games played here went well under, but neither was an offensive juggernaut. Washington vs. Utah, PAC 12 Championship, and MIchigan State vs. Oregon in the Redbox Bowl. However, the 49ers, and Seahawks played an OT game in the rain and the field held up well and I don't think impacted the offenses. New turf was put in just for this game and it has been covered, so I feel the field will be in excellent shape. To me we are getting value on the over as the last 59 games played here in NFL & College have gone under 61% so the number was already lower than it should have to start, and it has dropped 4 points mainly due to the weather conditions which won't impact this game by game time.
For the match-up on the field I also think it favors the over here with a game likely to be played in the 30's. Both teams are led by QB's who will be drafted in the first round when they come out. Both have a balanced offensive approach with a running game to go along with explosive offensive play makers. Each QB can make all the throws and they have 4 capable receivers going up against secondaries which are the hidden weakness for both teams.
Premium Weekly Newsletter - Surprise Championship Edition
Track Last Year & This Year's results. 10-6 ATS + 11.1% ROI
Clemson/Alabama Over 57 3.3% play - I actually think the first half under has some value at 28, but won't personally play it. Super Bowls, and Championship games tend to come out with a more conservative approach. When these two teams met in 2016 & 2017 in this game the first half combined for 21 and 28 points followed by second halfs of 45 and 57 points. If you want more value on the over here, and have the ability to bet it live or at half time you could wait and probably get a better number than 57.
Weather/Field Conditions - It was raining yesterday and this morning in Santa Clara, and that has started to drive the total down along with the fact that there is a notion that field conditions here are not good. Two college games played here went well under, but neither was an offensive juggernaut. Washington vs. Utah, PAC 12 Championship, and MIchigan State vs. Oregon in the Redbox Bowl. However, the 49ers, and Seahawks played an OT game in the rain and the field held up well and I don't think impacted the offenses. New turf was put in just for this game and it has been covered, so I feel the field will be in excellent shape. To me we are getting value on the over as the last 59 games played here in NFL & College have gone under 61% so the number was already lower than it should have to start, and it has dropped 4 points mainly due to the weather conditions which won't impact this game by game time.
For the match-up on the field I also think it favors the over here with a game likely to be played in the 30's. Both teams are led by QB's who will be drafted in the first round when they come out. Both have a balanced offensive approach with a running game to go along with explosive offensive play makers. Each QB can make all the throws and they have 4 capable receivers going up against secondaries which are the hidden weakness for both teams.
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