Service Plays Sunday 1/13/19

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Ben Burns

3* TOY

Philadelphia / New Orleans over 50

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Goodfella

3* Underdog GOY

Los Angeles Chargers +5

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Bobby Ligs

5% NFL Big Play

Chargers +4.5

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King creole

3* New Orleans. / Philadelphia over 50

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Spartan

3* GOY LA CHARGERS +4

SPARTAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 01/13/19 - 1:05 PM
305 LAC 4.0 (-110) Westgate vs 306 NEP
triple-dime bet
Analysis:
*Playoff GOY*
I love the Chargers here guys. Probably as much as any league release this season. Frankly it is my own opinion the Patriots are riding here a lot on rep. Well I am not at all convinced they win the game let alone clear the number. Is it just me or did Tom Brady legitimately look at times like a 41 year old NFL QB. Make no mistake about it, common knowledge Brady is a first ballot hall of famer and yes, possibly the best at the position in the HISTORY of the NFL. And yes, I do mean that. But for here, for right now in the moment I honestly feel the Chargers are the superior ball club. We cashed on them last week against the Ravens and I am going right back to the well with them once again here, only larger. I admit I personally would like to see Phillip Rivers get his moment in the sun this season. Lord knows this guy has paid his dues. While Tom Brady has owned the football world for years and been the poster boy for playoff success for the most part Rivers have labored in relative obscurity with the Chargers and usually under achieving teams. Well this time I think Rivers has the better supporting cast. I was very impressed last weekend with the Chargers defense. For the most part they throttled that Ravens offense. The Chargers are on the road, yes, fact is they have only lost one game on the road all season and that was to the Rams. Chargers might be one of the, if not the best wild card in the history of the league. They are balanced, led by a veteran QB, solid running attack, same with the passing game. Fast, athletic and smarter ožn defense thanks to Anthony Lynn and his staff. AND, they are hungry, starved is more like it. This stuff might be old hat to the Patriots but the Chargers are feeling it, playing with that swagger and they will be entering New England brimming with confidence. Man, I do like the Chargers here. A lot! I am going Triple playoff game of the year here on the Bolts.

Okay, I say bump your normal wager here some and my clients long term know I do not state that often. Don't go crazy but hit this harder than typical. At Pregame I have won 75% of my last 37 playoff Triples. I have won 77% of my NFL playoff game of the year releases in my years at Pregame. All good solid work but not 100%. So I must for the 2,695th time state, no game is a lock. Don't bet more than you can afford on ANY event. Okay, no more sermon. Many very sincere thanks as always and best of luck to all of us. Enjoy the game. Should be a winner for us guys. Good luck.

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Tony Finn

5% Saints Over 51 good to 53

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MidAmerican Sports (NFL)

Los Angeles Chargers +4.5

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Wunderdog

nfl

la chargers/new england 46.5 Over

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Jason Sharpe

3* Patriots

4* Over Philly/ Saints

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Scott Spreitzer

8* Chargers

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Goodfella

3* Underdog GOY

Los Angeles Chargers +5

Goodfella

"Total of Month" 3* on EAGLES/SAINTS OVER 50.5 (bought to 50.5) & good to 53.5 for a 3* size bet.

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Cowherd
Divisional Round special Blazin' 5
Patriots -4
(28-23)

Eagles +8.5
(24-20)

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Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAY:
LA Chargers +4

SINGLE PLAY:
New Orleans-Philly UNDER 51

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Saints over 50.5 is the GOY.

King Creole
#307-308
4:40pm ET (1:40pm PT)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL

*Optimum OU line: 50.5 or less points

Get your play in ASAP. And we’re giving out plenty of time to make SURE your OU line in this one is 50.5 or less points. Yes, we’re confident that we’ll get to 62 or more combined points in this one. But JUST IN CASE this game finishes exactly on the key OU number of 51 points, we still want to be able to cash a W. For us and our Totals Team, we are revisiting good vibes from the past (last year’s 5* winner)…. and also going back to the ‘scene of the crime’. It was exactly 12 months ago this Sunday that we were on the Saints @ Vikings OVER (46.5) as our 5* Playoff GOY. In that game, we thought we had NO chance at halftime, as the score was Minnesota 17 - New Orleans 0. But we got a LOT of points in the 4th quarter (29 to be exact) to rise from the ashes and cash a W. As far as the ‘scene of the crime’ reference, THAT options to this season’s early meeting. Back on Nov. 18th, we used the Eagles @ Saints OVER as our 5* GOM for November. And we got BURNED. The OU line in that game was 56.5 points. And if you knew beforehand that New Orleans would score 48 points, you probably would have bet your house on the OVER. But alas, despite 546 total yards for the Saints, that game SOMEHOW still stayed Under. Reason? Philly was held to only 196 total yards and 7 measly points. We ended up losing by a point and a half. Little did we know back then (when we were bumming big-time) that we would get a chance at REDEMPTION in the Playoffs. So here we are. Our Playbook NFL database models and simulations, with an emphasis on the LAST MONTH of play projects this game to finish somewhere around 37-24…. 38-24… 31-27… 34-27.

While we certainly acknowledge that New Orleans has turned into a monster RUNNING team this season (#6 in the league / 126.6 rushing YPG)… this one does not set up well for massive rushing production… for EITHER team. Sharp OU bettors are already aware that Philadelphia is one of the worst running teams in the league this season, ranked #29 with only 94.8 risking YPG. And the fact that they are also facing the #2 rushing DEFENSE in the league (New Orleans allows only 80.2 rising YPG) means that the Eagles will indeed be ‘pass-HEAVY’. They’ve thrown for more than 300 yards per game. And the KICKER is that NFL teams can indeed throw on the Saints. New Orleans actually had the 4h WORST passing defense in the entire league in 2018. They allowed 269 passing YPG… which was right behind Cincy (276.0 passing YOG allowed)… Kansas City (273.1)… and (coincidently) PHILADELPHIA (279.9 passing YPG allowed. Since we just brought up that we have TWO of the worst FOUR passing defenses taking on each other, let’s run with that. Yes, we’re aware that New Orleans is great rushing team. But Philly has a great rising DEFENSE. They’re ranked #6 in the league, allowing only 95.1 yards per game on there ground. So it’s been very difficult as of late for teams to have any sort of success on the ground vs the Eagles. In the last four games, NFL teams have rushed for only 82 yards, 62 yards, 31 yards, and 65 yards vs Philly. And you’ll really be blown away WHY there will be so many passes in this game when you see this stat: The past four offenses to face the EAGLES have dropped back to pass a whopping 189 times (that’s an avg of 47 passes per game)... while calling only 55 rushing plays (only 14 per game)!… Nuff ‘said.

With Philly off a very LOW-scoring Playoff win against the Bears last week (only 16 to 15), a lot of O/U players will be gun-shy about betting an Eagles OVER this week. But not us…. Since 1985, NFL Playoff teams off a Playoff WIN in which they scrod 16 or less points (EAGLES) have gone17-3 O/U. That includes a PERFECT 8-0 O/U since the 2001 season. The average OU MARGIN in these games? +15.8 points per game!

Yes, we’re aware that Philly has only allowed 15 and ZERO points in their last two games. That’s ok. Because, NFL Playoff road or neutral UNDERDOGS who allowed 15 < points in EACH of their last two games (EAGLES) have gone 9-1-1 O/U.

That loss back on Nov. 18th was the most embarrassing in Eagles history. So the Revenge motivation also plays a part in our OU Best Bet… 7-0 O/U last three years: All NFL Playoff UNDERDOGS with REVENGE when the OU line is a high 47.5 or more points (EAGLES). Average combined points in these games: 59.3.

New Orleans comes in with a brilliant 13-3 record this year and the #1 seed in the entire NFL Conference… 24-6-2 o/U since 2009 / 10-2 O/U last 3 years / 8-1 O.U LAST season: All .800 or better PLAYOFF teams when the OU line is 53 or less points (SAINTS).

The fact that those is actually the THIRD home game in a row for the Saints is a good sign for OVER bettors… 13-2-1 O/U since 1993: All NFL non-division Playoff HOME favorites of -2 > points off back-to-back home games (SAINTS).

New Orleans closed the regular season with a home DOG loss to the Carolina Panthers. That line (+6.5) was understandable given the fact that Drew Brees and company dod not play in that last game, But is also setup a nice OVER situation: 7-1-1 O/U All-Time: All BIG Playoff favorites of > 7 points who were an UNDERDOGS of +6 > points in their last regular season game (SAINTS).

Elevating this game even further into BEST BET territory is a look at both teams from an individual OU platform.

The EAGLES have been one of the league’s BEST road OVER teams in the last four years. They have gone 20-6 O/U in their last 26 road games dating back to the 2015 season. That includes 16-4 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 43 to 56 points… and a PERFECT 4-0 O/U this season.

All sharp OU bettors already know that the Saints are the BEST home OVER team in the entire NFL over the last six seasons. But did you know this? New Orleans is 14-4 O/U All-Time in all Playoff games. And that includes a PERFECT 9-0 O/U when playing at HOME in the post-season. Average OU margin: +9.3 points per game.