Tuesday 6-25-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jun 25 '19, 7:10 PM in 10h
MLB | Nationals vs Marlins
Play on: Marlins +200 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Marlins +200

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Jun 25 '19, 8:05 PM in 11h
MLB | Braves vs Cubs
Play on: Cubs +109 at pinnacle

1* Free Sharp Play on Cubs +109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jun 25 '19, 8:10 PM in 11h
MLB | Rays vs Twins
Play on: Twins +106 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Minnesota Twins +106
The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as home underdogs to the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. This is a team that has been undervalued all season as they are 50-27 on the year through 77 games. They still don’t get the respect they deserve.
Kyle Gibson is having a solid year, but he has been at his best at home this season. Gibson is 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.018 WHIP in six home starts in 2019. He is also 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA in his last two starts against the Rays, giving up just one earned run in 13 innings.
Blake Snell won the Cy Young last season, and he has been a major disappointment since. It happens to a lot of starters, but Snell is the latest to fall flat on his face following winning the award. He is 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 15 starts this season, 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in eight road starts, and 1-1 with a 9.32 ERA in his last three outings. He is also 1-1 with a 5.12 ERA in four career starts against Tampa Bay.
Minnesota is 7-1 after scoring one run or less this season. The Twins are 20-7 off a loss this year. Minnesota is 6-1 in its last seven vs. a left-handed starter. The Twins are 54-25 in their last 79 home games. Minnesota is 6-0 in Gibson’s last six starts on five days’ rest. Bet the Twins Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Jun 25 '19, 10:07 PM in 13h
MLB | Reds vs Angels
Play on: Angels -146 at 5Dimes

Free Play on Angels -146

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Finger Lakes - Race 8

EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)


Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $9,400 • Post: 4:19P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MAGIC ROY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAGIC ROY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BAKER SFIELD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BRIGHTEST STAR: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
MAGIC ROY
3/1

7/2
7
BAKERSFIELD
4/1

5/1
3
BRIGHTEST STAR
5/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
MAGIC ROY
4

3/1
Front-runner
72

81

78.4

71.2

66.7
1
TWILLIE
1

8/1
Front-runner
71

68

67.2

60.6

47.1
3
BRIGHTEST STAR
3

5/1
Alternator/Front-runner
69

73

66.0

61.6

50.1
7
BAKERSFIELD
7

4/1
Alternator/Front-runner
84

64

65.8

64.0

58.5
5
HACKENSACK HILL
5

5/1
Stalker
68

72

56.4

64.8

54.8
8
BULL
8

15/1
Trailer
80

81

56.4

69.8

57.8
6
GUSTY WIND
6

6/1
Trailer
72

68

28.2

48.7

41.7
9
ULTIMATEENTICEMENT
9

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77

64

55.4

63.6

54.6
2
BUSTIN TO GET HOME
2

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77

61

45.6

61.0

46.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE
Fort Erie - Race 3

WPS, Exactor, Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5), 20 Cent Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)


Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 5:18P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. (*PLUS UP TO $4,725 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SURFS EDGE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SAVOIA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
4
SURFS EDGE
9/5

9/5
6
SAVOIA
8/1

4/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
SAVOIA
6

8/1
Alternator/Front-runner
72

58

75.0

52.6

43.6
4
SURFS EDGE
4

9/5
Alternator/Front-runner
62

70

48.5

70.2

67.2
1
CASEYOUDIDN'TKNOW
1

5/2
Trailer
0

0

45.5

54.0

48.5
2
MISS TEA BLONDE
2

15/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

45.2

57.2

49.2
3
JADE'S JOURNEY
3

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

72.5

41.9

32.9
7
SECRET AFFIRMATION
7

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
63

55

54.0

54.6

47.6








Unknown Running Style: BAYLEAF (6/1) [Jockey: Singh Sunny - Trainer: Wills Daniel].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 100

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PA. BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 CROWN AND SUGAR 2/1

# 2 NANTUCKET RED 4/1

# 6 MOON VIRGINIA 3/1

I back CROWN AND SUGAR here. Has put up solid speed figures in dirt route races in the past. I like the rider on this filly - strong chance to win the race. She has been racing soundly recently while recording sharp Speed Figures. NANTUCKET RED - With a very strong 87 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this affair. The average class rating alone makes this entrant a definite contender. MOON VIRGINIA - With a very good 87 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. She has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the top in this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 5:37pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 BANDIT FOR TIME (ML=7/2)
#1 HORACE CHARLES (ML=4/1)


BANDIT FOR TIME - This gelding should be in fine condition, this far into his form cycle. Dropping down in class rating points from his May 29th race at Evangeline Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this animal the edge. Last raced at Evangeline Downs carrying 5 lbs more. The lower weight carried in today's race should serve him well. This thoroughbred earns a lot of money per start. I believe he can add to the lifetime bankroll in this race. HORACE CHARLES - Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. Last raced at Louisiana Downs carrying 6 pounds more. The lower impost in this event should serve him well. I always like to see a horse getting Lasix for the first time. Snodderly adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CHIMNEYVILLE (ML=5/2), #6 KING FORMEREDITH (ML=3/1), #5 COMBAT COMMAND (ML=6/1),

CHIMNEYVILLE - Finished second in his most recent race with a mediocre speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this group. KING FORMEREDITH - This runner didn't do too much last time out finishing fourth. No reason to expect any betterment in today's event. COMBAT COMMAND - Will be tough for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #2 BANDIT FOR TIME on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - SA - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS SINCE JUNE 25, 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 ATINA SALSA 5/2

# 4 CUDDLE KITTEN 8/5

# 7 I'M NOT JOKING 6/1

My choice in here is ATINA SALSA. Mosco has a strong winning percentage with horses travelling in dirt route races. Has very good front-end speed and will almost certainly fare solidly against this field. Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. CUDDLE KITTEN - Should land in the top three without a doubt. The average class fig alone makes this one a key contender. I'M NOT JOKING - Have to sense that this horse will do well again this time around. Has been travelling very well and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 MAGICAL EXPRESS (ML=9/2)


MAGICAL EXPRESS - Mejias rode this horse for the first time last out and comes right back this time. As the only speedball in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SOBY JUNIOR (ML=5/2), #6 CHECKWITHME (ML=3/1), #3 RUMBAGO (ML=7/2),

SOBY JUNIOR - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't get the job done. Tough to play him on the top end. CHECKWITHME - When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route. RUMBAGO - I can't play this repeated non-winner. Gets the assignment done occasionally. This gelding earned a fig in his last race which probably isn't good enough today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 MAGICAL EXPRESS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

06/25/19, LAD, Race 1, 3.15 CT
1M [Turf About] 1.33.02 CLAIMING. Purse $7,500.
Claiming Price $7,500, if for $6,500, allowed 2 lbs. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 8 Blushing Dreamer 7/2 Tejera E A Burress Beverly L
099.5004 7 Confederate Yell 3-1 Smith K J Jeansonne Justin F
098.5691 3 Cat's Shining Star 12-1 Guerrero J A Turner Patti
098.4548 4 Point of America 8-1 Dominguez J Ramirez Eduardo W
097.8283 5 Speedy Huntur 9/2 Del-Cid H Urbina Ruperto R.
097.7983 9 Arch Value 5-1 Eramia R E Asmussen Steven M. JTC
096.7620 1 Red Wined Up 6-1 Martinez O Romero Alvin E
096.0419 2 My Best Shot(b+) 10-1 Green A Einerson Kerry S
093.0049 6 Shoe's to Remember 20-1 Castillo A Melancon Donald
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to LAD.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions If Top Rated Horse
8 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
7 108.80 1.26 40.38 84 208 [All Surfaces] Best Finish
3 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
4 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
5 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
9 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
1 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
2 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
6 63.70 1.20 35.44 56 158 [All Turf] Not 3YO In 3UP Race
------------------------------
If Race Is Off Turf
------------------------------
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 9 Arch Value 5-1 Eramia R E Asmussen Steven M. JTFC
099.5813 8 Blushing Dreamer 7/2 Tejera E A Burress Beverly L
099.2341 4 Point of America 8-1 Dominguez J Ramirez Eduardo W
098.8707 7 Confederate Yell 3-1 Smith K J Jeansonne Justin
098.4198 3 Cat's Shining Star 12-1 Guerrero J A Turner Patti
097.1389 5 Speedy Huntur 9/2 Del-Cid H Urbina Ruperto R.
096.9994 1 Red Wined Up 6-1 Martinez O Romero Alvin E
096.5616 2 My Best Shot(b+) 10-1 Green A Einerson Kerry S
093.4896 6 Shoe's to Remember 20-1 Castillo A Melancon Donald
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to LAD.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC W# Occ Profitable Conditions If Top Rated Horse
9 108.80 1.26 40.38 84 208 [All Surfaces] Best Finish
8 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
4 46.20 1.19 33.33 41 123 [Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Best Workouts
7 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
3 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
5 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
1 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
2 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
6 37.10 1.07 32.42 83 256 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Who's Hot and Who's Not

Week of June 24th

About a month ago I gave out a brief early season look on all the umpires in MLB that were good to back with totals in some fashion. The Top 'over' umpires at the time was an extensive list of guys who at the time had just gone by the 10-game marker in terms of number of times behind the plate, while umps who favored the 'under' more often were listed as well.

We've since had another four full weeks of action which means that most umpires worth tracking are around the 15-game mark behind the dish now, and while some of the names from both lists have stayed the same, there are also plenty of changes as well. So it what may become a monthly thing the rest of the year, let's take a look back at some of the best 'over' and 'under' umpires currently in the game.

Who's Hot - 70% or better to the 'Over' Umpires

Alan Porter (12-2 O/U)
Mike Winters (10-3 O/U)
Jeff Kellogg (10-3 O/U)
Chad Whitson (10-4 O/U)
Carlos Torres (10-4 O/U)
Tom Hallion (7-3 O/U)

As you can see in comparison from a month ago, there are a few names missing from that initial list here as things can regress back to the mean over time with these guys. Winters, Whitson, and Kellogg are the three remaining holdovers, while Porter and Hallion and Torres are the newcomers, largely thanks to them reaching 10+ games now.

In Porter's case, he's jumped to the top of the list (85.7%) thanks to a run of going 5-0 O/U in his five games since last month's piece was written, and all five of those games finished with at least 10 runs. The 12.4 runs per game Porter sees behind the dish is third highest in the league behind Winters (13.4), and Brian Gorman (13.9) who still has some games to do before his trends can really be taken seriously. That high of an average run per game number will earn 'over' bettors plenty of units, and with the Porter/Winters combo being up 16.6 units to the 'over' this year, they are two names that are cause for pause for 'under' bettors.

Of the new names on the list, Torres and Hallion are names to keep an eye on for assignments, especially if they are doing National League games, as combined they are 9-0 O/U on the senior circuit this year. Hallion has seen an average of 12.3 runs per game in contests featuring two NL teams, while Torres clocks in at 13.4 runs/game in the same scenario. Those numbers could be nothing more than randomness when it's all said and done, but if you are looking for some regression to the mean from these guys, chances are you'll want to see them involved with AL teams – 4-7-1 O/U combined – at least.


Who's Not - 70% or better to the 'Under' umpires

Andy Fletcher (2-9-1 O/U)
Joe West (3-11 O/U)
Rob Drake (3-10 O/U)
Jerry Meals (4-11-1 O/U)

Whether it's because of all the HR balls or not this year, the 'under' list of umpires has grown significantly shorter in a month, with only West and Meals the holdovers here. Last month's leader in the clubhouse – Ed Hickox has seen nothing but 'overs' since being mentioned here, as his games are 5-0 O/U since that time with three of the four of them finishing with at least 11 runs. That's a great example of how these guys can regress to the mean over time, and how some savvy bettors may want to take all the names on each list this week and simply go the other way in their next outings. After all, another name gone from this list – Mike Everitt – went a perfect 4-0-1 O/U since last month's post as well.

Regarding the two holdovers, West has become an 'under' umpire in recent years overall, as his expanding zone gets plenty of strikeouts for both sides this year, and having a 66-year old guy behind the dish calling balls and strikes will come with some inconsistencies.

Meals hasn't reached his 60's yet, but he's morphed into a great 'under' guy in recent years as well. He was a great guy to back with 'overs' early on his career, but with a 32-46-3 O/U record over the past two years – 11-25-2 in American League games – Meals is another guy who has seemingly expanded his strike zone as the years have gone on. There isn't lost hope of Meals or West seeing a few more 'overs' soon given that they were favorable to that side at one point in their careers, but recent trends suggest that these guys will continue to be favorable to pitchers with those expanding and shifting strike zones.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, June 25

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951Ny Mets -952 Philadelphia
NY METS are 17-23 SU (-14 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

953Washington -954 Miami
MIAMI is 14-1 SU (12.9 Units) after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.

955Atlanta -956 Chicago Cubs
CHICAGO CUBS are 33-29 SU (7.6 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

957La Dodgers -958 Arizona
ARIZONA is 37-21 SU (16 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

959Colorado -960 San Francisco
COLORADO is 15-4 SU (10.6 Units) in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.

961Toronto -962 Ny Yankees
NY YANKEES are 16-7 SU (13.8 Units) in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.

963Kansas City -964 Cleveland
CLEVELAND is 42-26 SU (16.1 Units) in home games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons.

965Chi White Sox -966 Boston
BOSTON is 5-16 SU (-12.7 Units) in home games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in the current season.

967Texas -968 Detroit
TEXAS are 37-21 SU (15.3 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

969Tampa Bay -970 Minnesota
MINNESOTA is 45-32 SU (16.9 Units) in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

971San Diego -972 Baltimore
BALTIMORE is 17-35 SU (-21.7 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.

973Seattle -974 Milwaukee
SEATTLE is 21-30 SU (-15.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

975Pittsburgh -976 Houston
PITTSBURGH is 6-16 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

977Oakland -978 St Louis
ST LOUIS are 15-8 SU (10.4 Units) in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.

979Cincinnati -980 La Angels
LA ANGELS are 19-11 SU (9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Tuesday, June 25

National League
Mets (37-42) @ Phillies (40-38)
Lockett allowed six runs in 2.1 IP (55 PT) in his first ’19 start. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 1-0

Arrieta is 1-1, 4.86 in his last three starts; he is 3-4, 2.50 in 12 starts vs NY. Team in his starts: 8-6
5-inning record: 6-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-15 Over/under: over 4-1-1 last six

Mets lost 21 of last 28 road games; over is 10-5-2 in their last 17 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 18-4 last 22 games.

Phillies lost seven of their last eight games; under is 3-2 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-3 last seven games.

Nationals (37-40) @ Marlins (30-46)
Scherzer is 4-0, 0.93 in his last four starts; he is 12-4, 3.20 in 21 starts vs Miami. Team in his starts: 6-10
5-inning record: 8-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-16 Over/under: under 4-1 last five

Richards is 2-2, 2.43 in his last five starts; he is 0-1, 3.86 in four starts vs Washington. Miami scored one run in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 4-11
5-inning record: 6-6-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-15 Over/under: 8-7

Washington won five of last seven games; they’re 4-8 in road series openers- under is 4-2 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3 in their last nine games.

Marlins won five of last six games; they’re 3-10 in home series openers- under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-1 last seven games.

Braves (46-33) @ Cubs (43-35)
Fried is 1-1, 6.49 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 11-4
5-inning record: 9-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-15 Over/under: 11-4

Alzolay is making first MLB start; he was 2-1, 3.09 in six AAA starts this year. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Braves won five of last eight games; under is 3-2 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 12-2 in their last 14 games.

Chicago is 5-6 in its last dozen games; over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-0 last six games.

Dodgers (54-26) @ Diamondbacks (40-40)
Stripling is making his first start since April 25 (1-1, 2.65 in six starts); he is 1-4, 3.78 in 20 games (5 starts) vs Arizona. Team in his starts: 4-2
5-inning record: 3-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-6 Over/under: last four under

Ray is 1-3, 5.34 in his last five starts; he is 7-4, 2.89 in 17 starts vs LA. Team in his starts: 8-8
5-inning record: 6-8-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-16 Over/under: last three over

Dodgers won six of their last six games; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-1 last six games.

Arizona lost six of its last eight games; eight of their last ten games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-4 last 14 home games.

Rockies (41-37) @ Giants (33-44)
Gonzalez is making his first ’19 start; he was 4-8, 4.54 in 17 games (13 starts) for Texas in 2015-16, and is 4-5, 5.66 in 14 AAA starts this year. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Bumgarner is 0-3, 4.93 in his last six starts; he is 15-8, 3.07 in 32 starts vs Colorado. Team in his starts: 7-9
5-inning record: 7-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-16 Over/under: over 7-2 last nine

Rockies lost three of last four games; over is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-3 in their last 13 road games.

Giants are 7-6 in last 13 games; over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 in their last six games.

American League
Blue Jays (29-50) @ New York (50-28)
Richard is 0-2, 11.37 in his last there starts; he is 0-1, 3.18 in two starts vs NY. Team in his starts: 2-4
5-inning record: 2-3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-6 Over/under: 3-2-1

Green has a 2.79 RA in six opens. Team in his starts: 6-0
5-inning record: 5-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-6 Over/under: 5-1

Blue Jays won three of last five games; over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

New York won nine of its last ten games; five of their last six games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 15-4 last 19 games.

Royals (27-52) @ Indians (43-35)
Sparkman is 1-2, 4.34 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 2-4
5-inning record: 3-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-6 Over/under: under 3-0 last three

Bieber is 1-1, 2.63 in his last two starts; he is 2-0, 6.35 in two starts vs KC. Team in his starts: 10-5
5-inning record: 7-4-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-15 Over/under: 3-10-2

Royals won five of last nine games; four of their last five games stayed under. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Cleveland won nine of last 11 games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten games.

White Sox (36-40) @ Red Sox (43-37)
Bullpen game Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Price is 2-0, 3.65 in his last five starts; he is 6-5, 3.45 in 16 starts vs Chicago. Team in his starts: 6-7
5-inning record: 5-4-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-12 Over/under: 6-7

Chicago lost six of last eight games; seven of their last nine games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-4 last 11 games.

Boston won nine of last 12 games; over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 in their last nine games.

Rangers (42-36) @ Tigers (26-47)
Chavez is 0-0, 0.00 (6.2 IP) in four opens. Team in his starts: 3-1
5-inning record: 3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-4 Over/under: 2-2

Zimmerman is 0-4, 10.02 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 2.25 in two starts vs Texas. Team in his starts: 4-1
5-inning record: 4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-5 Over/under: 3-1-1

Rangers won three of last four games; they’re 4-7 in road series openers- four of their last six games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 8-3 last 11 games.

Detroit lost eight of last nine games; they’re 4-8 in home series openers- over is 7-3 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-1 last five games.

Rays (45-33) @ Twins (50-27)
Snell allowed 10 runs in 3.2 IP in his last two starts; he 1-1, 5.12 in four starts vs Minnesota. Team in his starts: 7-8
5-inning record: 5-8-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-15 Over/under: 7-8

Gibson is 1-2, 5.71 in his last three starts; he is 3-5, 5.22 in nine starts vs TB. Team in his starts: 9-5
5-inning record: 9-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-14 Over/under: over 6-3 last nine

Rays lost five of last seven games; they’re 9-4 in road series openers- three of their last four games stayed under. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 road games.

Minnesota is 3-5 in its last eight games; they’re 8-4 in home series openers- under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 8-4 last 12 games.

Interleague
Padres (38-40) @ Orioles (22-56)
Allen blanked Milwaukee for seven IP (90 PT) in his first MLB start. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Yacabonis threw two shutout IP in his first open. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 1-0

Padres lost eight of last 10 road games; they’re 1-7 in last eight road series openers- three of their last four games stayed under. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3-1 last ten games.

Baltimore lost 11 of last 12 games; they’re 5-7 in home series openers- over is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2 last nine games.

Mariners (35-47) @ Brewers (42-36)
Gonzales is 3-0, 2.79 in his last three starts; he is 1-0, 9.53 in two games (1 start) vs Milwaukee. Team in his starts: 9-8
5-inning record: 10-6-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-17 Over/under: over 4-1 last five

Davies is 1-1, 7.82 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 9-6
5-inning record: 8-4-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-15 Over/under: 3-12

Mariners won four of last five games; they’re 5-8 in road series openers- over is 12-3 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten games.

Milwaukee lost seven of last 10 games; they’re 3-9 in last 12 series openers- over is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 18-2-1 last 21 games.

Pirates (36-40) @ Astros (49-30)
Williams is 1-1, 5.19 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 7-3
5-inning record: 2-5-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 5-5

Former Pirate Cole is 2-0, 2.90 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 9-6
5-inning record: 7-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-15 Over/under: 8-7

Pirates won five of last six games; they’re 5-8 in road series openers- over is 9-2-1 in their last 12 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 20-5 last 25 games.

Houston is off a 1-6 road trip; they’re 10-2 in home series openers- over is 5-0 in their last five home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.

A’s (41-38) @ Cardinals (40-37)
Bassitt is 0-2, 5.19 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 5-5
5-inning record: 6-3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-10 Over/under: 6-3-1

Flaherty is 0-1, 4.09 in his last six starts. Team in his starts: 7-8
5-inning record: 6-5-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-15 Over/under: over 3-1 last four

A’s won five of last seven games; they’re 6-6 in road series openers- five of their last seven road games stayed under. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven road games.

St Louis is 9-5 in its last 14 games; they’re 7-6 in home series openers- over is 8-2 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 14-1 last 15 home games.

Reds (36-40) @ Angels (39-40)
Mahle is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 4-10
5-inning record: 4-9-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-14 Over/under: 3-10-1

Heaney is 0-1, 5.68 in five starts. Team in his starts: 3-2
5-inning record: 3-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-5 Over/under: 3-2

Reds won six of last eight games; they’re 9-5 in road series openers- three of their last four games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten games.

Angels lost three of last four games; they’re 4-7 in home series openers- over is 6-3-1 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-0 last three games.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 6/24
Ariz 15-43……8-34…….23
Atl 10-36…..14-38……24
Cubs 10-33……14-41…..24
Reds 13-39……11-32…..24
Colo 10-40…15-35…….24
LA 8-36……18-39……26
Mia 7-36……9-38……..16
Milw 14-36…..14-38…..28
Mets 16-43……9-32……25
Philly 8-36…..15-39…….23
Pitt 10-37…..9-35……..19
StL 10-37…..8-36……..18
SD 14-35……10-40…..24
SF 4-39……7-37………11
Wash 13-35…..12-37……,25

Orioles 12-38…….12-34…..24
Boston 8-40……..9-36…….17
W Sox 8-39…….13-34……..21
Clev 12-33…..11-40……..23
Det 11-34…….12-37……23
Astros 14-39…..8-39………22
KC 10-37…..15-39……..25
Angels 15-42……9-33……..24
Twins 15-41……8-36………22
NYY 12-35……13-42……25
A’s 6-39…….10-38……16
Sea 9-39…….13-41…….22
TB 16-39…..12-35…….28
Texas 12-33…..14-41…….25
Toronto 9-38…….11-37…….20

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 34-31 NL, favorites -$1,705 over 34-29-2
AL @ NL– 34-22 NL, favorites -$113 over 33-21-2
Total: 68-53 NL, favorites -$1,818 Over 67-50-4