Sunday 9-8-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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BOBBY LIGS

Event: (469) Detroit Lions at (470) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 8, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Total Under 47.5 (-107)

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BRYAN LEONARD

Event: (469) Detroit Lions at (470) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 8, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Detroit Lions -2.5 (-108)

469 Detroit at Arizona

Better grab this -2.5 now with the Lions because this line won't be available on Sunday. Rookie coach and QB playing its first game against a decent Lions team. Neither team showed anything in the preseason, and we want no part of the Cardinals in a likely win and cover situation.

PLAY DETROIT

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DAVE COKIN

Event: (475) New York Giants at (476) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: September 8, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7.0 (+100)

Condensed thought: Ezekiel Elliot is a great player. But even the best running backs get overratd in terms of actual value. There's a discount in place here based on the apparent likelihood he won't play. I see true value on the Cowboys at this number. At -7 or better, this will definitely be on my Sunday card!

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TONY WESTON

I'm going to lay the points with the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, as I think the Indianapolis Colts will be a mess for the first few weeks. I get it, they've always prepared under the impression Andrew Luck would be injured - it's become the norm - but the fact he is done forever, it could have a lingering effect.

Like with all football plays in this point-spread range, I want you active in buying the half point. Anytime there is a favorite laying points between -7 and -7.5, you are to buy the half point down.

The Chargers have on three of the past four meetings, and lead the all-time series, 16-10. Even without Melvin Gordon in the lineup, the Bolts have a better offense and should be able to move the ball effectively against a defense that gave up 340 yards per game last season.

I'm not a big fan of Philip Rivers, never have been, but he's a much better investment than Jacoby Brissett. Rivers, who owns the longest active starting streak (208), joined Peyton Manning (14), Drew Brees (12) and Tom Brady (10) as the only quarterback ever with 10 or more seasons of 4,000+ yards passing.

I think he and Keenan Allen are going to have a big game against Indy's suspect secondary that I absolutely do not trust. Allen had 199 catches the last two season - the most in any Chargers' two-year span. In his only game against Indianapolis, he had nine receptions for 107 yards and one TD in a 19-9 win back in 2013.

Rivers will also target Travis Benjamin, who has eight receptions for 142 yards in three games versus Indy, and Mike Williams, who had 10 touchdown receptions in 2018 - the most by any Chargers.

Out of the backfield, Rivers also has running back Austin Ekeler, who has averaged 10.4 yards per catch the last two seasons, ranking fourth among NFL backs with at least 25 receptions. He has scored 8 of 11 career TDs at home, and his team has won five straight when he hits paydirt.

Lightning strikes in Los Angeles, as the Bolts rout the Colts.

1* CHARGERS

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RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Sep 08, 2019
Lions vs. Cardinals
Lions-2½ -110

A rookie QB with all that pressure playing against a seasoned vet in the first game of the 2019 NFL season? Sign me up. I’m going to fade the lions and their overhaul in week 1.

We get Kyler Murray vs. Matt Stafford on Sunday in Arizona and the Lions are a -2.5 road favorite. I know what you’re thinking. Bad idea Ray! I think the Lions are underrated and I don’t have a lot of confidence in Kliff Kingsbury…do you? There’s too many changes in Arizona, new offense, new defense, new QB, new coaches. Overhauls take time.

Matt Patricia is actually not who I’m talking about here. The Lions have a solid run game with Kerryon Johnson, an above average QB, decent WR’s (Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola in the slot) and I like the matchups on Sunday with Zona down 2 starting DB’s and starting a brand new O-Line.

Another plus for the Lions… They lead the all-time series 33-28-5 and they snapped a 7-game streak by beating the Cardinals in their last 2 matchups. The last one being a 17-3 win last year in Arizona with Slay returning an interception 67 yards for a touchdown.

Some trends to consider. The Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games, and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Week 1 Games. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

The Lions being a road favorite is scaring a lot of people, and I don’t think we’ll see that much this year, but in Week 1 they only need to win by a FG.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Sep 08, 2019
Titans vs. Browns

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Cleveland Browns -5.5

The Cleveland Browns are building this thing the right way. They are now finally a playoff contender as they are loaded on both offense and defense. They showed what they were capable of down the stretch last year in going 5-2 in their final seven games with one of their losses coming 24-26 at Baltimore with a playoff berth on the line for the Ravens.

Baker Mayfield threw for 3,725 yards with a 27-to-14 TD/INT ratio last year in his rookie season after taking over for an injured Tyrod Taylor. The offense really shined once Hue Jackson was fired and Freddie Kitchens took over. The players have bought into Kitchens and love playing for him.

This offense shined last year, but it is now loaded with some of the best weapons in the NFL. The Browns traded for Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason. He is motivated and back with his former LSU teammate in Jarvis Landy, and these two will bring the best out in one another. TE David Njoku and RB Nick Chubb are both coming off big seasons as well, and the offensive line is one of the top units in the league.

The Browns didn’t live up to their potential defensively last year. That’s why they brought in S Morgan Burnett, DT Sheldon Richardson and DE Olivier Vernon in the offseason. The Browns were making life very difficult on opposing offenses in the preseason, and I believe that will carry over to the regular season. They have so many former first-round picks on this side of the ball and should live up to their potential in 2019.

The Titans are a team I’m very down on coming into 2019. Marcus Mariota has been a bust and hasn’t been able to stay healthy, either. The Titans managed just 19.4 points per game last year. It’s tough to win with such an inept offense. They have some of the worst weapons in the NFL. LT Taylor Lewan is serving a four-game suspension to start the season as well.

Browns fans are excited and will be rowdy for the season opener Sunday afternoon. The Browns went 5-2-1 at home last year. The Titans went 3-5 on the road and scored just 16.5 points per game away from home. The Titans are 20-46-4 ATS in their last 70 vs. AFC opponents. Bet the Browns Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Sep 08, 2019
Ravens vs. Dolphins

1* on Baltimore Ravens -6.5

The Key: Offensive coordinator Greg Romans has been the dual-threat QB guru. He made Colin Kaepernick into a star in San Francisco. And he helped guide Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs with the Buffalo Bills a few years ago. Now Roman has the most talented QB he’s ever had in Lamar Jackson. This offense will be humming this season with a new system that opposing defenses won’t be prepared for early in the season. The Ravens take on what I believe to be the worst team in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. This team looks like they’re already tanking. Baltimore beat Miami 40-0 in their last meeting. The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Miami. The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Week 1 games. Take Baltimore.

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ROB VINCILETTI
NFL | Sep 08, 2019
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Jaguars+3½

The NFL Comp Play is on Jacksonville at 1:00 eastern. The Jags fit a nice system here that plays on week 1 dogs from +3 to +6 if they were losing teams last season. This system cashes over 80% long term. The Jags will try and control the clock with a strong run game against a KC Defense that allowed over 34 points per game on the road last year. In fact teams that allowed 454+ points are 8-18 to the spread in week 1 . The Chiefs are 0-15 to the spread vs a non division team that has road loss revenge. Look for Jacksonville to keep this one close.

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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Sunday
Washington/Philadelphia under 44

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Arthur Ralph

Sun: UNDER total Chiefs/JAX 48

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

Indianapolis at L.A. Chargers 4:04 ET

Colts (+) over Chargers

You know, I never really understood the 'panic' I heard from the media when Andrew Luck retired. Sure, he was great when he played, but how much of that was of late. Indianapolis won 10 games last season and now Jacoby Bassett who set all kinds of records at NC State and threw for 3,098 yards as a first time starter for the Colts and had 13 TD's and only seven Ints two seasons ago. What scares me about this matchup is the kind of pre-season LA (San Diego) had without showing much. Rivers will be great and the running game will suffice but the Colts will gallop here. Take INDIANAPOLIS!

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BOB VALENTINO

Comp play for this first week of the season in the NFL is for the Falcons to keep things closer than expected in their game at U.S. Bank Stadium against the host Minnesota Vikings.

Both teams had major playoff aspirations when the season started last year, but the Falcons injury list was about as long as any list you could come up with last year, while the Vikings and newly-signed quarterback Kirk Cousins could never quite get in-synch.

Both teams are looking for turnarounds this new season, and my guess is the fact the Vikings boast a 20-6-2 against the spread mark since 2015 when favored at home, the oddsmakers have "puffed" up this price just a point, point-and-a-half too many.

Atlanta is healthy to start the season, and with Matt Ryan being able to use Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley at his disposal through the air, and a healthy Devonta Freeman in the backfield to run the ball, it appears there are just too many weapons for this Vikings defense to contain all game long.

While I do not think Minnesota is going to lose this home opener, I do believe they are favored by a point too many.

I can see this game being decided by between 1 to 3 points tops.

Live dog comp play on Atlanta plus the points.

2* ATLANTA

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DWAYNE CONNORS

One of the more interesting Game One matchups on this opening Sunday docket is the Detroit Lions visiting the Arizona Cardinals.

This is the third year in a row these NFL teams are playing one another, but quite obviously the first time they will be facing one another with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray under center, and Kliff Kingsbury wearing the headset. Yes, the Arizona faithful will be itching to see Kingsbury's "Air Raid" offense get cranking, but based on an uneven preseason sneak-peek I am not so sure the Redbirds rack up the points on the State Farm Stadium scoreboard this afternoon.

Last year the teams played to a 17-3 final score in a game that the visiting Lions won late in the season, that game easily staying Under the total of 40 points. The total this time around is over a touchdown larger, but even with the potential for some offensive explosions on the gridiron, I do not feel this game will land Over the total.

Detroit comes into this one having closed last year Under the total in 7 straight games (the Cards game included), and Under in 9 of their final 10 last season.

Arizona went 6-2 Under the total in their 8 home games last season, and have held Under in 8 of their past 10 in Glendale, and 11 of 16 overall played at home since 2017. Yes, Kingsbury and Murray will make a splash this season, I just don't think it is going to come in colors in the very first game of their tenure together.

Play the Lions and the Cardinals to hold just Under the total on Sunday.

4* DETROIT-ARIZONA UNDER

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, September 8 is:

New York Giants +7.5 over Dallas Cowboys.

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