Service Plays Saturday 9/21/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark lawrence on Howard Eskin this morning
Smu
Sdsu
App st
Wisky
Nd

Saints
Steelers
Jets
Dolphins
TB
Eagles

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (347) NEW MEXICO STATE at (348) NEW MEXICO
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 4:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: NEW MEXICO -4.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Digging deep into a slate of games this big is really the most efficient way to make solid dough. Sure I could struggle to pick a side in the Wisky/UM game or the A&M/Auburn game etc. Here is a rivalry game in the state of New Mexico where the game goes far under the radar...but not for us. We backed the SDSU Aztecs last week on the road here facing the Aggies and much like we assumed...it does not appear that NMSU can score no matter who they're playing against. Much more is known at this point about how Bob Davie's team went to face his old squad sans him on the sideline in South Bend last week and got sent back with his tail between his legs for a 50+ point drubbing. (Davie is still likely not back today...not sure it matters against this defense with that offense) They only have Sam Houston State on the schedule thus far and no "official" stats are accumulated for such a game. This leads to New Mexico Lobos sitting at the bottom of the entire country in most all defensive categories...based upon one beating to a team likely CFP bound if they can sneak past Georgia today.
  New Mexico shows a 9 yards per play against now and a 66-14 point differential...and while not a stellar team to back by any means...this looks like a cake walk at a crazy discount price. Vegas likely had no clue how to go about getting ANYONE to bet on the Aggies today...so giving them more than a TD in a rivalry game with the Lobos off a debacle (and NMSU just off a mere 31-10 defeat) was a solid and effective way to do it.
  We will jump in big at this -4 discount price in a game I have the Lobos winning going away by double digits. The Lobos have a solid offense that can overshadow the detrimental defensive side....dissimilar from NMSU who struggles to score period...but also stop their opponents. NM is 14-6 last 20 after allowing as many passing yards as the Irish put on them...and the Aggies are 1-11 ATS the last 12.
• Game: (315) Charlotte at (316) CLEMSON
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1Q CLEMSON -10.0 (-135)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Just a de facto play here and kind of a shocking price...the Tigers DON'T score twice in the 1st quarter is all we need to be betting against here? Shocking value and price...Trevor and Etienne and that defense should be up 14-0 thru 15 minutes...and I won't be too surprised if it's a 21 point quarter.

• Game: (335) TROY at (336) Akron
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: TROY -17.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  The mismatch here is bordering on epic sadly and this is with an away team laying 3 scores. Akron went into the game with CMU last week as the team Vegas saw as the superior team on a neutral field! They were getting merely 2.5 points and lost by 21 points...the Zips were even down 17-0 to the Chippewas before you could even blink! The Trojans are off a shootout loss to Southern Miss...but the offense is solid and Akron is very poor on both ends of the ball...allowing nearly 8 yards per play on defense and having a sub-4.0 yards per play on offense.
  If Troy can limit mistakes this is gonna be as ugly as it gets for the poor AKRowdy home crowd!
  
• Game: (379) SMU at (380) TCU
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: 1H Total Under 28.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  TCU record on Unders in this spot is flat out ridiculous 12 for the last 12, and this isn't even a stretch past many seasons or coaches or anything...it is all Gary Patterson and just back to 2016! SMU has started off 3-0 in good fashion and has stuck very close to home for all 3 games so far..even when on the road at Arkansas State. Simultaneousy they have not faced even close to the competition they will get today with the TCU defense...who even shut down the Purdue pass happy spread offense down to just 14 points in West Lafayette.
  This will be a plodding start in my opinion and the price for the first half appears to be better than full game at this point....but if you can get full game 56 or higher...get on that as well!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Great Lake Sports

4* Georgia
3* Wisconsin

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise phones

4-temple, washington st
3-boston college,central florida, nebraska,connecticut
2-louisville, utah, air force

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella
3* CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF YEAR
Georgia

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan
HUGE RABID DOG TRIPLE GAME OF YEAR!
3* South Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Stevens

4.5/5 stars Alabama -38

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

FINN SEC GAME OF THE WEEK (4-0)
Game: (363) LSU at (364) VANDERBILT
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: LSU -23.5 (-108)


FINN BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (375) OKLAHOMA STATE at (376) TEXAS
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: OKLAHOMA STATE 6.5 (-107)


PRIMETIME COLLEGE SAT: IRISH v BULLDOGS
Game: (391) NOTRE DAME at (392) GEORGIA
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: GEORGIA -14.0 (-108)


FINN SAT NITE PAC 12 GAME ~ WEEK (13-3)
Game: (397) UCLA at (398) WASHINGTON STATE
Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 10:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: WASHINGTON STATE -18.5 (-108)

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (337) BOSTON COLLEGE at (338) RUTGERS
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 12:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: BOSTON COLLEGE -7.5 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  I am not so sure Rutgers isn't a paper tiger...and I was one of the ones fooled by this early in the season. We cashed a solid play with them early on against UMass, despite going down big and quick and letting UMass do plenty of work on the offensive end. This line makes little sense even with Chris Ash's boys being the home team. Little travel involved, a home QB that likely is a no go and if he does....limited or far less than 100% at best...and a BC team that isn't all that hard to back even being in the ACC.
  Things went off the rails in that hideous loss to Les Miles last Friday night, but it led us to this bargain line, an extra day off to prepare, short travel, and a public that thinks they can fade BC and back Rutgers due to the scoreboard looking slaughter 48-24!
  Hit up the Eagles today and watch this game devolve in a 2 or 3 score affair late at home and Rutgers experiencing more of the same...even out of the B1G. Rutgers has allowed 5.2 yards per rush and the BC Eagles will run and run and run all over them much to the chagrin of the defense....and a Rutgers offense and defense both worst at TO differential.
  
• Game: (335) TROY at (336) Akron
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: TROY -17.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  The mismatch here is bordering on epic sadly and this is with an away team laying 3 scores. Akron went into the game with CMU last week as the team Vegas saw as the superior team on a neutral field! They were getting merely 2.5 points and lost by 21 points...the Zips were even down 17-0 to the Chippewas before you could even blink! The Trojans are off a shootout loss to Southern Miss...but the offense is solid and Akron is very poor on both ends of the ball...allowing nearly 8 yards per play on defense and having a sub-4.0 yards per play on offense.
  If Troy can limit mistakes this is gonna be as ugly as it gets for the poor AKRowdy home crowd!
  
• Game: (379) SMU at (380) TCU
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: 1H Total Under 28.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  TCU record on Unders in this spot is flat out ridiculous 12 for the last 12, and this isn't even a stretch past many seasons or coaches or anything...it is all Gary Patterson and just back to 2016! SMU has started off 3-0 in good fashion and has stuck very close to home for all 3 games so far..even when on the road at Arkansas State. Simultaneousy they have not faced even close to the competition they will get today with the TCU defense...who even shut down the Purdue pass happy spread offense down to just 14 points in West Lafayette.
  This will be a plodding start in my opinion and the price for the first half appears to be better than full game at this point....but if you can get full game 56 or higher...get on that as well!
  
• Game: (377) BOWLING GREEN at (378) KENT STATE
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H KENT STATE -7.0 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Oops...Vegas screwed this line up ....we shall jump on board and back the underrated Kent State and overrated BG and I sure like the TD price for the first half better than the full game...but both should be winners!
  
• Game: (377) BOWLING GREEN at (378) KENT STATE
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: KENT STATE -11.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (313) MIAMI OHIO at (314) OHIO STATE
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 3:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: OHIO STATE -38.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Why are we stopping now? Even the Redhawks coach basiclaly said he has not shot here...and really 38 isn't a lot considering the last 2 weeks performances...and he said playing the instate Buckeyes is like allowing the opposing team in gym class to have the first 45 picks!
  
• Game: (347) NEW MEXICO STATE at (348) NEW MEXICO
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 4:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: NEW MEXICO -4.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Digging deep into a slate of games this big is really the most efficient way to make solid dough. Sure I could struggle to pick a side in the Wisky/UM game or the A&M/Auburn game etc. Here is a rivalry game in the state of New Mexico where the game goes far under the radar...but not for us. We backed the SDSU Aztecs last week on the road here facing the Aggies and much like we assumed...it does not appear that NMSU can score no matter who they're playing against. Much more is known at this point about how Bob Davie's team went to face his old squad sans him on the sideline in South Bend last week and got sent back with his tail between his legs for a 50+ point drubbing. (Davie is still likely not back today...not sure it matters against this defense with that offense) They only have Sam Houston State on the schedule thus far and no "official" stats are accumulated for such a game. This leads to New Mexico Lobos sitting at the bottom of the entire country in most all defensive categories...based upon one beating to a team likely CFP bound if they can sneak past Georgia today.
  New Mexico shows a 9 yards per play against now and a 66-14 point differential...and while not a stellar team to back by any means...this looks like a cake walk at a crazy discount price. Vegas likely had no clue how to go about getting ANYONE to bet on the Aggies today...so giving them more than a TD in a rivalry game with the Lobos off a debacle (and NMSU just off a mere 31-10 defeat) was a solid and effective way to do it.
  We will jump in big at this -4 discount price in a game I have the Lobos winning going away by double digits. The Lobos have a solid offense that can overshadow the detrimental defensive side....dissimilar from NMSU who struggles to score period...but also stop their opponents. NM is 14-6 last 20 after allowing as many passing yards as the Irish put on them...and the Aggies are 1-11 ATS the last 12.
  
• Game: (387) BAYLOR at (388) RICE
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: BAYLOR -26.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Strange that a price this large could be bargain basement pricing....but this is Rice! Baylor doesn't even have to travel much for this debacle of a game and despite the pace of play...this isn't even 4 TDs of a difference. Ohio State is laying 12 more points than this so you can see where the market expects money. Baylor has lost the public betting eye of late post-Briles and we get to take advantage of a game that is like a 38 or 40 point spread here today in Texas!
  
• Game: (315) Charlotte at (316) CLEMSON
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1Q CLEMSON -10.0 (-135)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Just a de facto play here and kind of a shocking price...the Tigers DON'T score twice in the 1st quarter is all we need to be betting against here? Shocking value and price...Trevor and Etienne and that defense should be up 14-0 thru 15 minutes...and I won't be too surprised if it's a 21 point quarter.
  
• Game: (389) San Antonio at (390) NORTH TEXAS
  Date/Time: Sep 21 2019 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Under 58.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Contrast of styles and a total I have a decent amount lower than this...bargain price in an under the radar game....our specialty is focusing on where Vegas has flaws in matchups with lower visibility and likely liability.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets

full Sat.. 13-1-1 lst 15 football..

3* Wash -6 -115
3* Texas A&M -3 -120
3* Georgia -14 -118
2* Michigan +3.5 -115
2* Vandy +14 1H -110
2* Louisville +7 -112
2* App St +3 -116

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Balfe

---

NCAA Football
12:00 PM EST
Rotation #337-338
Boston College -7.5 over Rutgers
Boston College/Rutgers Over 57.5
The good news for Boston College is they are playing Rutgers. The bad news is they are coming off a historically bad home loss to Kansas. This Boston College Defense is young and it is not talented. BC catches a break today with the Rutgers starting QB out of this game, but Rutgers still have running backs that should be able to have big gains. BC will run a faster tempo on offense and they still have one of the best players in the country in AJ Dillon. Rutgers is not a talented program and I can’t think of one power five conference team that could have been a better draw for BC. This team is going to be playing angry in this early kickoff. At some point the Eagles are going to doubt themselves, but in the long run will be too much on offense for Rutgers to keep up with. Take BC and the Over.

NCAA Football
3:30 PM EST
Rotation #349-350
Washington/BYU Over 50.5
BYU didn’t get on the board until 40 seconds were left in the game last year in a 35-7 blowout in Washington. I believe this year will be different because they are at home and the Huskies have a ton of turnover on the defensive side of the football. Both teams have a ton of offensive talent on the field, both QB’s are smart, both teams have good running backs and solid offensive lines. BYU has shown great character the last two weeks and they have the makeup to be able to win close games. If they keep this game close we will see a fantastic ending with maybe an upset. Both teams should score a decent amount of points today. Take the Over.

NCAA Football
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #375-376
Oklahoma State/Texas Over 72.5
Oklahoma State has owned this series as of late so it’s interesting to see why Vegas has Texas as a full touchdown favorite today. Both offensive lines are leap years better than the opposing defensive lines. The offenses should dominate today. Texas has a ton of new faces on defense. There is not much veteran leadership on the defensive side of the ball. This Oklahoma State Offense is going to be tough to stop. Oklahoma State is weak in the front seven on defense and really miss a Calvin Bundage at linebacker. Sam Ehlinger has been flawless this season throwing no interceptions. The Longhorn Offense will have their way. Both teams are going to put up massive amount of points. Don’t worry about the high line. Let the game play out. Take the Over.

NCAA Football
7:00 PM EST
Rotation #385-386
Oregon -10.5 over Stanford

[swaminator]

anyone see the ATS underdog GOY ? thanks

King Creole 4* OVER TEMPLE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SkyBlue Picks

Michigan +3.5

Appalachian State +3

Old Dominion +27

[FATMANWINS]

anyone see the ATS underdog GOY ? thanks

King Creole 4* OVER TEMPLE

Ats underdog GOY is northwestern 20 units

[wardywins]

Ats underdog GOY is northwestern 20 units

Thanks, good fade!