Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:18 AM

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 5 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-5

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-29-1
Against the Spread 31-43-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 33-42-1
Against the Spread 26-48-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-40

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+11, ML +425) at Chiefs, 19-13
Raiders (+6.5, ML +250) vs. Bears, 24-21
Broncos (+4.5, ML +200) at Chargers, 20-13
Packers (+3.5, ML +160) at Cowboys, 34-24
Bills (+3, ML +160) at Titans, 14-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Bengals, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) at Redskins, 33-7
Eagles (-14) vs. Jets, 31-6
Vikings (-6) at Giants, 28-10
Texans (-4) vs. Falcons, 53-32
Panthers (-3) vs. Jaguars, 34-27
Saints (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 31-24

Chief Concern

-- The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to mow over the Indianapolis Colts (+11, ML +425) at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football. The Colts entered the game with several defensive backs banged up, and other falling like flies in the first half. But, cliche' totally intended, that's why they play the games. The Colts fought to a 13-10 halftime lead, they held on in a scoreless third quarter, and actually pushed their lead to 19-10 before the Chiefs booted a field goal in the fourth quarter for the low-scoring 19-13 road victory.

The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, an NFL record, but that's all over now. QB Patrick Mahomes also dinged up his already nagging ankle injury, and his lack of mobility made him look rather mortal. And the lack of discipline, racking up 11 penalties for 125 yards, certainly didn't help matters either. The Chiefs also lost WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens, DLs Chris Jones and Xavier Williams to injuries, too. Still, as heavy favorites, they should have been able to overcome. They didn't, and that's a concern going forward.

Jekyll And Hyde Texans

-- The Houston Texans rolled the Atlanta Falcons 53-23 at NRG Stadium, which is how many predicted the Texans offense would look. QB Deshaun Watson finally broke out, and the Texans were on fire in all facets of the game. But then why did they score just 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers in a 16-10 loss at home, especially against a backup QB? The week before they went on the road and won 27-20 at Los Angeles Chargers, following up a 13-12 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in one of those weird odd-week, even-week patterns. They're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if that continues next Sunday on the road against the Chiefs. Hmm.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Kansas City Chiefs (55.5) battle, and as mentioned, it didn't even come close. In fact, the Sunday Night Football game has hit the 'under' in all six games, with the underdog 4-2 SU/ATS. File that away for next Sunday's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chargers.

The second-highest total on the board was the Falcons-Texans (50) game, and Houston took care of the number themselves. The next highest total was the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) battle on Thursday night, a 30-29 win in favor of the Seahawks. Thursdays are the night of the underdog, going 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS through the first four installments, with the 'over' cashing in the past two.

The next highest total is the Monday Night Football tilt between the Cleveland Browns-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, still to be determined.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (39) game, the only one with a total in the 30's. The Bills, who have won three straight away games for the first time since the 2004 season, is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of their games so far. It might not be pretty, but they're winning.

The next lowest total was in the London battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Oakland Raiders-Chicago Bears (40) game wasn't a track meet, but it did end up going 'over'. It was just 17-0 at half in favor of the Raiders, but the Bears threw up 21 points in the third quarter to help the total inch over the finish line at 'over'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 split in the first two primetime games of Week 5, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Browns-49ers (47.5) still pending. The 'over' is 4-11 (26.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Giants RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) exited early, as the replacement for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) needed medical attention of his own. Not good.

-- Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was forced out of action, leaving undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges to finish up the game. He did well enough to steer the team to overtime, but they lost to the Ravens 26-23. Cue the Colin Kaepernick talk in the Steel City.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers and Buccaneers lock horns in London next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. They already played on Thursday night in Week 2, with the Bucs winning 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, covering as 6 1/2-point underdogs while hitting the 'under' (48). That game was the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). Since then it's QB Kyle Allen starting, going 3-0 SU/ATS in three starts in place of Supercam. In this series, the 'under' has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the underdog going 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings.

-- The Bengals and Ravens will tangle in Charm City, with Cincinnati still searching for its first win of the season. While the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games inside the AFC North Division, they failed to cover at Pittsburgh two weeks ago in a blowout loss, and most of the stat above was with a team which was NFL caliber, not this current version of the Bengals. The Ravens have failed to cover in five straight games at home, so something's gotta give. Remember, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- In another divisional battle, the 49ers and Rams lock horns in Southern California. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the past six NFC West battles, while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five against NFC West foes. That includes a narrow cover as 1 1/2-point underdogs in Seattle, losing 30-29 last Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in five of the past six meetings in L.A., four of the past five meetings overall and the Rams are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven in this series.

-- On Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers square off at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay is looking to carry over momentum after a 34-24 win at Dallas. The Lions are well rested, coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven following a week off. The Lions have cashed in four of the past five on the road, while covering five of the past seven appearances on a Monday. The Packers have covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC North, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on Monday. In this series, while the Lions have covered four in a row, the favorite has hit in 19 of the past 26. The over is also an impressive 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:28 AM

Close Calls - Week 5
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 5 of the NFL regular season.

Seattle Seahawks (-1½) 30, Los Angeles Rams 29 (48½): The Thursday night NFC West clash lived up to its billing with a back-and-forth contest. The Seahawks led by one at halftime, briefly opening as a slight underdog but listed commonly a slight favorite at -1½ most of the week. The Rams had two 75-yard touchdown drives in the third quarter surrounding a short-field Seattle score but Los Angeles missed on a two-point conversion attempt to lead by just five. Early in the fourth quarter field goals were exchanged before Russell Wilson led a lengthy drive for the Seahawks and found the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:28 to go. The two-point conversion try loomed large on the spread result but DK Metcalf was unable to haul it in, leaving Seattle up by just one. The Rams had plenty of time to get into field goal range but Seattle challenged an incomplete pass and it was ruled that it was narrowly a wild interception from Tedric Thompson, a deflected pass that was juggled several times but was kept off the turf. Seattle was not able to pick up a first down to finish off the game however and it appeared that the Rams would sneak away with the win, reaching field goal range only to have Greg Zuerlein miss from 44 yards.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 23 (44): The Ravens jumped out to an early 10-point lead but Pittsburgh took advantage of two interceptions to add a six points before the break to trail by four, getting close to the home underdog spread that mostly fluctuated between +3 and +3½. Pittsburgh scored first after halftime after another Lamar Jackson interception but Baltimore quickly answered with a field goal to knot the game at 20-20. Mason Rudolph was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers were down to undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges at quarterback. He did enough to lead Pittsburgh to another field goal with 2:37 remaining but Baltimore answered as Justin Tucker was good from 48 to force overtime, a kick that also sealed the ‘over’. The Ravens were forced to punt starting the extra session and Pittsburgh appeared to be on the move but JuJu Smith-Schuster lost the ball after a solid gain, with Baltimore narrowly recovering the fumble in bounds, effectively already in field goal range. A conservative approach followed as the Ravens picked up only six yards and Tucker hit from 46 for the win, though for many on the Ravens it wasn’t quite enough.

Oakland Raiders (+7) 24, Chicago Bears 21 (40): After a scoreless opening quarter in London the Raiders delivered 17 points in the second quarter for a commanding underdog edge on a line that climbed back up dramatically by Sunday, opening at -6 before falling as low as -4½ and rising all the back to -6½ and -7 by kickoff. The Bears suddenly also climbed back into the game in the third quarter taking advantage of good field position to score three touchdowns, going in front 21-17. The Raiders were on the doorstep to go back in front but Chicago got a fumble recovery near the goal line and the Bears were able to work their way out of danger into Oakland territory. Points weren’t added however but then it was the Raiders who were then pinned deep. A running into the kicker penalty gave Oakland a retry on a punt that would have left the Bears near midfield. Now facing 4th-and-1, the fake punt was on and Eddie Harris picked up the first down but appeared to fumble. On review the Raiders kept the ball and Derek Carr would go on to complete the 97-yard scoring drive to put Oakland back in front. Chicago crossed midfield on a late possession, but Chase Daniel wound up intercepted as Oakland moved to 3-2.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 23 (46½): These winless squads kicked a lot of field goals early on as Arizona held a 13-9 lead through three quarters and the ‘under’ sat in good shape. The Cardinals added three more to lead by seven and seemed to put the game away with a 37-yard touchdown run with about seven minutes remaining for a 14-point lead. Andy Dalton led a 79-yard scoring drive around the four-minute mark to get the Bengals back within seven and the Cardinals weren’t able to gain a first down while only running off 27 seconds. Dalton hit Tajh Boyd for two big plays and suddenly Cincinnati was in the end zone. The Bengals opted to kick for the tie rather than go for the win with the touchdown right at the two-minute warning, a score that was also extremely relevant for those on a total that hovered in-between 46 and 47. There was too much time left for the Cardinals as Kyler Murray led his first NFL game-winning drive using his arm and his legs to set-up Zane Gonzalez for another field goal for the win.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 34, Jacksonville Jaguars 27 (41): The Panthers took a 28-17 lead early in the third quarter but the Jaguars would fight back adding a touchdown to trail by just four heading into the final frame on a spread that was commonly +3 or +3½. The Panthers weren’t able to put the game away despite two chances to add points, missing a field goal and then getting stopped on 4th-and-1 at the 5-yard-line. Jacksonville settled for a field goal to trail by one with about six minutes remaining but the Panthers seemed to close the door with a 59-yard touchdown run. Incredibly the extra-point went right however as the margin stayed at seven. Jacksonville fumbled near midfield ahead of the two-minute warning but still wound up getting another shot, eventually reaching the Carolina 24-yard-line before running out of time.

Buffalo Bills (+3½) 14, Tennessee Titans 7 (39): Tied 7-7 through three the Bills turned in a 77-yard touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter surrounded by the third and fourth missed field goals of the day from Titans kicker Cairo Santos. The Titans would get a late possession but punted with about four minutes to go and didn’t get another chance as the Bills escaped with a win in a matchup that could loom large late in the season in the AFC wild card picture.

Denver Broncos (+4½) 20, Los Angeles Chargers 13 (46): A 14-0 first quarter lead offered great promise for the underdog Broncos and that edge was pushed to 17-0 with a field goal following up a missed field goal from the Chargers. Los Angeles also fumbled for a touchback on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line in the final play before halftime. Most of the third quarter went by harmlessly but winless teams often find ways to give their opponents a shot. Joe Flacco wound up intercepted at his own 7-yard-line to seemingly put the Chargers right back in the game but Philip Rivers returned the favor with another red zone turnover. Denver’s defense wouldn’t get a shot to prevent the next score however with Desmond King returning a punt 68 yards for a Chargers touchdown near the end of the third quarter. Joe Flacco took a costly 3rd down sack on the next Broncos drive to push the field goal attempt back and Brandon McManus would miss. A few plays later the Chargers added three to wind up within one score. The Broncos were eventually able to hit a field goal late in the fourth to finally put the game away for win #1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:28 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Sunday, October 13

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 251-252
October 13, 2019 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.923
Tampa Bay
131.715
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-2); Under

New Orleans @ Jacksonville

Game 259-260
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.421
Jacksonville
130.855
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+1 1/2); Over

Houston @ Kansas City

Game 257-258
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.622
Kansas City
136.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Cleveland

Game 255-256
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.689
Cleveland
129.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+2 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Minnesota

Game 261-262
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.274
Minnesota
138.706
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-3); Under

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 253-254
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
123.261
Baltimore
131.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 8
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 12
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+12); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 263-264
October 13, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
119.311
Miami
111.792
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under

San Francisco @ LA Rams

Game 265-266
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.568
LA Rams
140.778
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 8
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-4); Under

Atlanta @ Arizona

Game 267-268
October 13, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
127.188
Arizona
122.304
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-1 1/2); Under

Dallas @ NY Jets

Game 269-270
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
130.894
NY Jets
119.215
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-8 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Denver

Game 271-272
October 13, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.931
Denver
133.658
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2); Over

Pittsburgh @ LA Chargers

Game 273-274
October 13, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
132.968
LA Chargers
128.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+7); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:28 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Sunday, October 13

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CAROLINA (3 - 2) vs. TAMPA BAY (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 84-55 ATS (+23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 38-61 ATS (-29.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 5) at BALTIMORE (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (4 - 1) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 38-62 ATS (-30.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 2) at MINNESOTA (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 5) at MIAMI (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-97 ATS (-43.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
MIAMI is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 0) at LA RAMS (3 - 2) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 197-241 ATS (-68.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 142-190 ATS (-67.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-104 ATS (-43.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 71-103 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (1 - 3 - 1) - 10/13/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (3 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
NY JETS are 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 3) at DENVER (1 - 4) - 10/13/2019, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 118-156 ATS (-53.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (1 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 3) - 10/13/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 92-64 ATS (+21.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:29 AM

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report

Sunday, October 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games at home
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston Texans
Houston is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 23 games at home
Cleveland is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 14 games
Seattle is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Cleveland

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 5-10-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
Jacksonville is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Miami Dolphins
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Washington
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games on the road
Washington is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-7-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games at home
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Atlanta is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
LA Rams is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
LA Rams is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Rams is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 7-14-1 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams

Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Denver is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games when playing Denver
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver

New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Jets's last 9 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Dallas's last 15 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
LA Chargers is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 16-7-1 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:29 AM

NFL Week 6 opening odds: Chiefs' stunning loss, injuries could invite Texans cash
Patrick Everson

An AFC clash among two of the NFL’s more dynamic quarterbacks highlights the Week 6 schedule. We check in on the opening line and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

Kansas City entered the Week 5 Sunday night game as one of just three unbeaten teams. But the Chiefs exited Sunday night no longer unblemished, stunningly losing outright to Indianapolis 19-10 as 10.5-point home favorites. Star quarterback Patrick Mahomes played the whole game despite hurting his left ankle.

Houston has been a little erratic over the first five weeks, but certainly got its offense in order on Sunday. The Texans (3-2 SU and ATS) hung a 50-plus burger on Atlanta, scoring 37 second-half points in a 53-32 victory as 4-point home favorites.

“The line came off the board when the Colts-Chiefs game started, and the number may drift toward 7 after the Chiefs’ loss tonight,” Murray said. “Kansas City is a little banged up right now.”

That said, Murray doesn't believe Mahomes' ankle will be an issue this week.

"I think he's fine," Murray said. "It's not his fault that Andy Reid made that horrendous fourth-and-1 call, and that the Chiefs couldn't stop the Colts on the ground."

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4)

Los Angeles enters this game off a mini-bye, having played in the Week 5 Thursday nighter, but Sean McVay’s troops have also lost two in a row. After inexplicably giving up 55 points at home to Tampa Bay, the Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) fell just short at Seattle 30-29 as 1.5-point underdogs.

San Francisco (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) joins New England as the only unbeatens, but the Niners still have Week 5 work to do, hosting Cleveland under the Monday night lights. The 49ers had a bye in Week 4, following a 24-20 home win over Pittsburgh as 6-point faves.

“This is suddenly a critical game for the Rams, who could be in danger of falling back in the NFC West race with a loss,” Murray said. “You could see this number creep up if the 49ers struggle Monday night.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Philadelphia won and cashed its last two games to catch a stumbling Dallas unit atop the NFC East. After a solid Week 4 win at Green Bay, the Eagles (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) rolled over the hapless New York Jets 31-6 laying 14 points at home.

Meanwhile, Minnesota bounced back from a sluggish losing effort at Chicago by beating the other New York squad. The Vikings (3-2 SU and ATS) went to MetLife Stadium as 5.5-point favorites and coasted to a 28-10 victory over the Giants.

“Considering how wide open the NFC is right now, this game could be a potential NFC title game preview or a matchup of two teams that miss the postseason,” Murray said. “As Philly gets healthy, it could be the best team in the conference.”

Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

As the Yes/No proposition bet of whether Miami goes winless continues to gain traction, this week represents its best chance so far to get a victory. The Dolphins (0-4 SU and ATS) got a much-needed bye in Week 5, following a 31-6 loss at Dallas catching 16 points.

Washington is also mired in a winless season at 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS), suffering double-digit losses in four consecutive games. In Week 5, the Redskins took an early 7-0 lead against New England and trailed just 12-7 at halftime, but never scored again in a 33-7 setback getting 15.5 points.

“I don’t anticipate much handle here,” Murray said. “Both teams are better off losing. The difference is the Dolphins are trying to be bad. The Redskins are just this incompetent.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:29 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

Week of October 7th

Mixed results so far from last week's isolated scenarios, as the 'unders' for teams coming off 40-point performances took a hit with a 2-1 O/U record.

Going against those 40-point performers against the spread the following week as brought a 2-1 ATS record officially, but if you were willing to just take Seattle ML instead of the “dreaded” hook on -1.5, a betting record of 3-0 is possible.

And Week 6 this year is the first time we've got more then two teams on a bye week, and the first time we get a division rematch game as well (Carolina/Tampa Bay). It's not a true home-and-home since they will be playing in London, England, but you know the new-look Panthers with Kyle Allen under center would love to get some revenge.

It's these divisional games that become the focus for this week's piece though,as there are four of them in total – Carolina/Tampa, Cincinnati/Baltimore, San Francisco/LA Rams, and Detroit/Green Bay – and they've all got interesting aspects involved from both the specific and broad view.

Who's Hot

Road teams in NFL Divisional games
15-9 ATS – 11-6 ATS as road underdogs of any number

Not the greatest run in terms of it being 75%-plus or something like that, but these early season division games have been dominated by the road team. A blind 15-9 ATS overall is quite the run in general, and considering road teams only had a losing week in divisional games back in Week 4 (2-4 ATS for road teams), it's something that's proved to be an angle to go back to.

Breaking it down to road underdogs record as well is important because three of the four divisional games this week have road dogs listed, and all are currently getting more than a FG. Depending on how early action shakes out over the next 48 hours or so, these division road dogs could see their spreads drop even lower.

Detroit has already seen a bit of support for their MNF game in Green Bay next week, seeing an opener of 5.5 get bet down to +5 and even some +4.5's, while the initial line on San Francisco that's sitting in the same range, is more stagnant simply because the 49ers still have to play this week. A strong outing from San Fran tonight and you know that number will drop on them next week.

However, the winless Bengals have seen their line go the other way, as it's all been early Baltimore love next week. The Bengals looked awful on MNF against the Steelers, were the first team to lose to Arizona, and have still yet to win a game. I get it, tough to like a team like that and that initial move could be more of simply getting ahead of the masses in general, but I'm not sure what there is to like about Baltimore's spot laying all those points?

It's the third straight division game for the Ravens, after getting waxed by Cleveland, and escaping Pittsburgh with a win. Eventually all that emotional energy is tough to replace, and even though it is the Bengals coming to visit, having Cincinnati winless has to take some of the fear of losing this game out of the equation for Baltimore. The Ravens also have a road trip to play a very good Seattle team on deck, and given the success of division road dogs this year, that sure does look like a lot of points to cover for the Ravens next week.

Who's Not

Betting 'overs' in Divisional games
6-18 O/U in 2019

A run like this for 'under' bettors in divisional affairs isn't all that surprising given the general strength of 'unders' cashing in general this year, but to hit at a 75% clip in a broad isolated scenario like division games is quite the run.

Now this would be a run I'd be a bit more hesitant to blindly ride, as Week 5 saw division games finish with a 3-1 O/U record as some regression to the mean was bound to be on the horizon. We still may have not seen the full brightness of said horizon which makes these 'unders' a little harder to back without digging deeper. But having a place to start is never a bad thing.

With the Carolina/Tampa game actually being a division rematch game already, and being played in London, it will be interesting to see where this total shakes out. Early money has been all about the 'over' as an early 46.5 now sits at 48.5, as the trend of those overseas games being an 'over' bettor's haven continues to have some validity after the Raiders and Bears sailed 'over' their number on Sunday.

But there is film on these two teams already, and most of it wasn't pretty. Granted, Carolina won't be having Cam Newton under center this time around, and the players definitely want to put on a show for their overseas fans, but if this number continues to climb, all of that can still happen and the 'under' can still cash. Like the Ravens ATS early support, this quick move does have some signs of simply being one that's trying to stay ahead of the masses, so keep your eye out for that as the week goes on.

As far as the other possible 'unders' go in divisional games in Week 6, if you are of the mindset of the Ravens being in a potential flat spot because of level of opponent, fatigue, or otherwise, there is a case to look low on that total as well. Three straight divisional 'overs' would be quite the new feat for this Ravens franchise, and if the Bengals are going to hang around and either win SU and/or ATS, chances are with the limited offensive weapons they've got, it's not going to be a high-scoring game. But like Carolina/Tampa, this Bengals/Ravens game has already seen the total get bumped as well.

With the 49ers/Rams game still in limbo as Week 5 finishes, the Detroit/Packers game has also seen an early bump in the total too. Green Bay has started to find things offensively while taking a predictable step back defensively these past two weeks, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

That initial move does make a lot of sense for sure, but depending how high that total gets a week from now, this division 'under' trend is worth monitoring.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:29 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 6 odds: Timing is everything for Eagles-Vikings spread
Jason Logan

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL board each week.

As we head into Week 6 and the onset of autumn cools off those northern states, more outside factors – beyond action at the sportsbook – like mounting injuries and bad weather will be impacting the odds and the line adjustments.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (-6.5, 41)

The Steelers could be down to their third-string QB for this Sunday night trip to Los Angeles after second-stringer Mason Rudolph was knocked out cold versus the Ravens in Week 5 and remains in concussion protocol as of the start of the week.

Pittsburgh was left with undrafted QB Devlin Hodges as the passing option and that has the Steelers sitting at +6.5 while the betting world waits. With the way the total is starting to tick down – 43.5 to 41 points – it would seem that early Over/Under action is expecting the worst for Pittsburgh’s QB situation.

The Bolts are back home off a rough loss at Denver last Sunday. Los Angeles has just two wins on the year: one in overtime versus the Colts in Week 1 (a game it should have lost if not for bad kicking from Indianapolis) and one over Miami in Week 4 (so, you know…).

But if you believe in the Chargers, who are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss, and given the QB questions in the Steel City, you can grab the home team under the key number of a touchdown. It’s already flashing to Bolts -7 at some books, so make sure you get the fave as low as you can.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3, 43.5)

It would seem the Eagles’ win over a terrible New York team holds more weight with the betting public than the Vikings’ win over a terrible New York team. At least, that’s what the early adjustment to the vig for this matchup says.

Minnesota -3 has been discounted from -110 flat to as low as +104 at some sports, as bookies try to lure action on the home side without moving off the key number of a field goal after early bets pounded Philadelphia.

This is a tough game to handicap. The Eagles went into Lambeau and took a game from the Packers in the second half, but put in a less-than-impressive effort versus the Jets, relying on two defensive scores to make a 17-6 win look much better as a 31-6 victory.

The Vikes are a tougher test on defense than Gang Green and showed they could actually put force behind the football, let go, and have someone catch it before it hit the ground (also known as a pass) in Week 5. If you’re putting your money on Minny, wait and see if you can get -2.5 – which is starting to bubble up at some books.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 47.5 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS

Oh boy, the Browns might just stink again. A week removed from torching the Baltimore defense for 40 points, Cleveland crapped out a lonely field goal in a Monday nightmare at San Francisco, losing 31-3.

It was a tough spot for the Browns, playing back-to-back road games and three away contests in four week, and now the team comes back to Cleveland, where it last left fans wanting after a dismal 13-point effort in a loss to the Rams in Week 3.

Baker Mayfield was a dismal 8 for 22 for just 100 passing yards, throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice (one lost) in the loss to San Francisco. Now, the Browns host Seattle on a short week versus an opponent who has enjoyed a mini bye after winning at home versus L.A. on Thursday.

Seattle is nowhere near its defensive prowess of years past, but the offense can pound the football and chew up the clock. Cleveland allowed the Niners to run for 275 yards on 40 carries and dominate TOP for nearly 38 minutes. The Seahawks handed off 43 times against Los Angeles and hogged the ball for more than 35 minutes in Week 5. That same approach versus the Browns could keep the clock ticking and scoring at a minimum.

If you like a low-scoring finish in Ohio this Sunday, jump on the Under 47.5 as the public will have a nasty smell in their nose after watching the Browns bomb on Monday.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: UNDER 49 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

On the other side of that Monday Night Football finale in Week 5 are the 49ers, who jumped all over the Browns and didn’t stop until the whistle blew on their 31-3 victory. San Francisco is getting it done on both sides of the ball, especially on offense where they now average 31.8 points per game – second in the NFL.

The Rams are slow out of the blocks this season (only team in the NFL without a first-quarter touchdown) but seem to shake that slumber in the second half. Los Angeles did just that against Seattle last Thursday, putting up 16 points in the final 30 minutes, and Jared Goff is notorious for his home/road production, boasting a 96.3 QBR in Los Angeles versus an 89.3 QBR as a visitor.

This number is already rising, moving from 48.5 to 49, and some books dealing 49.5. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 50-plus total by the time this one closes Sunday afternoon. Regardless of that movement, you can’t discount the 49ers defense (ranked second in total yards) or a Rams stop unit that despite allowing some bigger numbers, is giving up 5.4 yards per play to foes (10th lowest).

For those leaning Under, wait it out and see how high the public pushes this one before buying a low-scoring – or lower-scoring – finish between these NFC West rivals.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:29 AM

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Bills 4-1 ATS
t1. Packers 4-1 ATS
t1. Rams 4-1 ATS
t4. Niners 3-1 ATS
t4. Lions 3-1 ATS
t4. Colts 3-1-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Dolphins 0-4 ATS
t31. Redskins 1-4 ATS
t31. Falcons 1-4 ATS
t31. Ravens 1-4 ATS
t28. Eagles 1-3 ATS
t28. Chargers 1-3-1 ATS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:30 AM

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 13

CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY - at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London (FOX, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Teams have split spread decisions the past three seasons. Bucs are “under” 7-4 last eleven games, and the “unders” are 5-1 last six meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals are a surprising 5-1 their last six as dog (even after recent Steelers loss on Monday). Ravens 1-6-1 vs. spread last eight at M&T Bank Stadium. Bengals have covered last three meetings.
Tech Edge: Bengals, based on team trends.

SEATTLE at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Russell Wilson is a dog here, note 6-1-1 mark for Seahawks in role since LY, 19-7-1 since entering league in 2012. Hawks also 7-1 vs. spread last eight on road. Browns no covers last three at home.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Texans 2-0 as dog TY, 5-1 in role since 2018. Chiefs surprising just 1-6 vs. spread last seven reg season games at Arrowhead. KC on 8-3 “over” run since late 2018.

NEW ORLEANS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 7-3 “under” last ten away. Meanwhile, Jags are “under” 6-3 last nine at home. J’ville 3-1 vs. line with Minshew at QB, and 4-1 as home dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

PHILADELPHIA at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 5-1 vs. spread last six at home (compared to 2-5 vs. number last seven away). Birds 6-13 last 19 vs. spread reg season, 2-2 last four as dog. Zimmer “under” 17-5-1 since late in 2017 campaign.
Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team trends and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Something has to give here! Teams are combined 1-8 vs. line between them this season. Miami “under” 8-4 last 12 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Note that Niners had covered five straight in series prior to last season when Rams covered both. SF has won and covered first two away TY after 2-6 road spread mark on road LY. “Overs” 4-1 last five in series. Rams only 2-6 last eight vs. line at home reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

ATLANTA at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Falcs 4-15 vs. spread on reg season road since 2017, Cards 8-12 last 20 vs. spread at Glendale (1-1 TY). Atlanta 1-6 as road chalk since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on Falcon negatives.

DALLAS at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas on 9-3-1 reg season spread run since mid 2018, though has dropped last two. Jerry Jones also “under” 11-3 last 14 on road. Jets on 0-6-1 spread skid as host and "under" 4-1 last five since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

TENNESSEE at DENVER (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Broncos 1-8 SU, 2-7 vs. spread since late 2018, 4-10-1 vs. points last 15 as host. Denver also “under” 12-2 last 14. Titans “under” last four TY and 3-1 vs. spread last four away.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

PITTSBURGH at L.A. CHARGERS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Steelers are 6-1 as dog since LY (1-1 TY). Pittsburgh also on 8-4 “under” run. Bolts just 2-10 vs. spread last 9 as Carson chalk.
Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:30 AM

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Ravens 4-1 O/U
2. Lions 3-1 O/U
t3. Cardinals, Panthers, Cowboys, Packers, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Raiders, Eagles, Seahawks, Buccaneers, & Redskins 3-2 O/U

NFL's Top Under Teams:

1. Bills 5-0 O/U
t2. Chargers, Vikings, Patriots, Titans, Dolphins, Jets & Niners 4-1 O/U

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:30 AM

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— Ravens covered once in last nine division games.

— Green Bay covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Giants are 7-2 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars are 4-22 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC teams.

— Minnesota is 21-5-1 in last 27 games as a home favorite.

— Chargers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:30 AM

Notes on all the NFC teams…….

Arizona:
— Cardinals have only one takeaway in their last four games (-2 in TO’s for year).
— Arizona is 14-10-1 ATS in last 25 games as a home underdog.
— Road team covered their last four games.

Atlanta:
— Falcons allowed 12 TD’s on their opponents’ last 25 drives.
— Atlanta averaged 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in four of their five games.
— Falcons covered only four of their last 19 road games.

Carolina:
— Panthers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 ppg, with Kyle Allen at QB.
— Carolina has nine takeaways (+5) in its last three games.
— Panthers ran for only 39 yards in Week 2’s 20-14 home loss to Tampa Bay.

Chicago:
— Bears allowed total of 45 points in Weeks 1-4, then gave up 24 points to Oakland Sunday.
— Chicago was 8-13 on 3rd down vs Washington; other four games? 15-53
— Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS in their last five post-bye games.

Dallas:
— First three games: 18-31 on third down. Last two games: 6-19.
— Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half of their last two games.
— Dak Prescott: 35-18 as an NFL starter; 24-5 vs losing teams, 11-13 vs winning teams.

Detroit:
— All four Detroit games have been decided by 4 or fewer points.
— Lions have nine takeaways but also six giveaways in four games this year.
— Detroit won/covered six of its last seven post-bye games.

Green Bay:
— Packers are +7 in turnovers, won/covered four of first five games.
— Green Bay is 22-13-2 ATS in last 37 games as a home favorite.
— Packers scored 88 points in first half of games, 37 in second half.

LA Rams:
— Rams scored 69 points in last two games, but lost both of them.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-7 ATS away from home.
— Average points scored in 2nd half of Ram games this year: 34.8

Minnesota:
— Vikings ran ball for 172+ yards in 4 of 5 games; Bears held them to 40.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 24-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under is 4-1 in Viking games, only one of which was decided by less than 10 points.

NY Giants:
— Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Giants covered 10 of their last 13 games on natural grass.

New Orleans:
— Saints are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games.
— NO opponents converted only 17 of last 49 third down plays.
— Saints won all three of Bridgewater’s starts, scoring 33-12-31 points.

Philadelphia:
— Eagles are 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-2 when they do not.
— Philly is 5-3 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
— Eagles have converted 37-70 third down plays this year.

San Francisco:
— SF ran ball for 702 yards in their last three games.
— 49ers have 11 takeaways in four games, but also eight turnovers.
— Last time SF was NFC’s last unbeaten team was 1984.

Seattle:
— Seahawks scored 27+ points in each of their last four games.
— Seattle is just 21-59 on 3rd down, but scored 98 points on 16 red zone drives.
— Seahawks are 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

Tampa Bay:
— Buccaneers allowed 31+ points in four of their five games.
— Tampa Bay has eight takeaways (+6) in its last four games.
— Average total in Bucs’ last three games: 71.0.

Washington:
— Redskins didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Washington is 0-5, with last four losses all by 10+ points.
— Would expect them to run ball with Callahan the new coach.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-13-2019, 07:30 AM

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 6 odds: Cowboys could get caught looking past Jets
Jason Logan

America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles.

If you’re not using situational handicapping to help unearth NFL betting value each Sunday, you’re missing out on one of the better weapons we can use against the big bad bookies.

Situational capping is pretty simple, if you know what to look for: factoring in unique situations for the teams involved. Some of the more common situational plays – or spot bets – are “letdowns”, “lookaheads”, and “schedule” spots

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 6 schedule and highlights the best opportunities for spot bettors to take advantage of the NFL odds.

LETDOWN SPOT: ATLANTA FALCONS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+2.5, 51.5)

The Arizona Cardinals cracked the win column thanks to a nail-biting road victory at Cincinnati last Sunday, giving new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray their first taste of sweet, sweet NFL victory as well as picking up an emotional win for the franchise following the death of team owner Bill Bidwell.

The Cardinals come back to the desert for a possible letdown spot against a desperate Falcons teams and a head coach whose office chair looks like a Hollywood stunt man in a disaster movie (it’s on fire). Atlanta is 1-4 SU and finished on the wrong end of a 53-32 shootout at Houston in Week 5. A loss to Arizona wouldn’t help Dan Quinn’s cause and after the Redskins canned Jay Gruden, it’s open season on struggling head coaches.

The Cardinals are winless at home, with an average margin of almost minus-12 points per game as hosts, and haven’t been great off a win, going 4-13-2 ATS in their last 19 games following a victory. Adding to that lurking letdown spot is a back injury to do-it-all RB David Johnson, who had a monster game versus the Bengals but couldn’t sit down following the win due to pain.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK JETS (+7, 42.5)

The Cowboys' bandwagon has hit some rough highway in recent weeks, losing to the Saints and Packers after a 3-0 start. Dallas has a good shot of snapping that skid in East Rutherford Sunday, taking on the winless Jets.

However, America’s Team could get caught looking past lowly Gang Green and to a Week 7 Sunday Night Football showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles, who flipped their fortunes after a slow start and now sit tied with Dallas atop the NFC East.

The Jets were as big as +8.5 before starting QB Sam Darnold was cleared to play following a bout with mono. That slimmed the spread to a touchdown Tuesday afternoon. New York has been running third-stringer Luke Falk under center since backup Trevor Siemian was injured midway through Week 2’s loss to Cleveland, and has sputtered on offense ever since.

Defensively, however, New York has been competitive. Gregg Williams makes opponents pay in blood for every yard and this team has eight takeaways already on the season. The Cowboys offense has looked lost the past two outings - with fumbles and interceptions killing drives - and their focus could be on Philly in Week 7, opening up a window for fans of the lookahead spot.

SCHEDULE SPOT: CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2, 47)

The Buccaneers are technically the home team for the next installment of the NFL’s venture across the pond, getting two points in their matchup with the Panthers in London, England. But on paper, this is Tampa Bay’s third game away from home in a row, and part of a grueling stretch that keeps the Bucs out of Raymond James Stadium for 49 days (with a Week 7 bye in between).

Oakland found itself in this exact same spot (and spot bet) last week and prevailed against the Bears at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as an underdog. The Raiders traveled to England that Monday following Week 4 and spent all week acclimating to the major time difference. The trip isn’t as brutal for the East Coast Bucs, who leave Thursday, will sleep on the plane, and practice Friday. Carolina is planning to arrive a day earlier, with departure on Wednesday.

Tampa Bay has two impressive road wins already this season, at Carolina and at Los Angeles, but looked bad in a loss at New Orleans last weekend. This is also a 9:30 a.m. ET start time – unlike Week 5’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff in London – so perhaps the Panthers have the edge in time zone acclimation by arriving a day earlier.

Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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