Sunday 10-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Redskins vs. Dolphins
OVER 41½

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The matchups don't get much uglier than this as the Redskins travel to Miami to face the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. With that being said, I do expect both offenses to finally find some success. Not unexpectedly, we're dealing with a relatively low total here as both teams carry extremely low expectations. But it's important to note that both defenses have been incredibly forgiving not to mention generous to opposing offenses. This is an excellent opportunity for QBs Case Keenum and Josh Rosen to pad their stats. Although new Redskins head coach Bill Callahan has talked about wanting to 'establish the run' - an archaic mindset in today's NFL - I don't think he'll be able to resist having Keenum attack a very beatable Dolphins pass defense through the air. This one won't be a true shootout, but it should climb 'over' the posted total. Take the over (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (259) New Orleans Saints at (260) Jacksonville Jaguars
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.0 (-108)

The Jags got gashed by Christian McCaffrey last week in Charlotte, and can assume the clever Sean Payton will have similar designs with his N.O. infantry star Alvin Kamara. But even with McCaffrey running wild, the transcendent Gardner Minshew still gave the Jags a look at that game, and inability to be “gap sound” on stop end vs. Panthers should be a relatively easy fix for Doug Marrone's staff. Teddy Bridgewater has already done more than asked in relief of Drew Brees, but it’s not as if the Saints are “Ohio State-ing” their foes, with all four wins by 7 points or fewer. If getting points, note J’ville 4-1 last five as TIAA Bank Field (Gator Bowl!) dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Oct 13, 2019
Seahawks vs. Browns
Seahawks +1

You do the math. Browns on a short week, after a blowout loss in a rout at San Francisco 31-3. They face the Seahawks who make the trip to the eastern time zone for a 1pm ET game coming in off of 10 days rest and a nice win over the division rival Rams. The spread favors Cleveland currently at -1, I've also seen this game at a PK, and Seattle at -1. The total has moved up half a point from 46.5 to 47.

What does your gut say? Mine says Seahawks ATS, even though this feels like a trap game, I'm going to lay my small wager on the QB who has a chance to win an MVP award this year...hint...he's not named Mayfield.

Russell Wilson is having a career year, and his statistics are off the chart. Wilson is leading the NFL with a 126.3 rating while completing 73.1 percent of his passes. He's been playing MVP-level ball, and that kind of play works at home and on the road. He's unflappable. All he's done is throw for 1,409 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions this season.

Against the 49ers Mayfield went 8-of-22 and threw a pair of picks, and only 100 yards passing. He's now sitting with 8 INT's and 4TD's on the year. Now I'm not about to predict that type of game for him Sunday, but don't underestimate the Seahawks pass rush. Ziggy Ansah, and Jadeveon Clowney will have Mayfield dancing in the pocket all day long, let alone the push Seattle will get from their interior D-line. They are very underrated. With the NFL's best tackling LB Bobby Wagner playing in the triangle behind a rejuvenated Al Woods and youngsters Quinton Jefferson and Poona Ford who rotate in at DT the Brown O-line are going to have their hands full.

I'm interested to see which running back makes a great impact on this game. We will see a couple good ones on display in Chris Carson and Nick Chubb, I love both their styles of play. It'll make this game fun to watch.

Some trends to consider. SEA are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Cleveland is 1-16 SU and 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games played in October. The Browns are also 6-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Browns are 0-2 at home, and in a few hours they'll be 0-3.

Back the Seahawks +1, PK, -1, whatever you see around there! If you were lucky to lock this line in earlier in the week you could have had the Seahawks at +2.5. Congratulations! I have them winning this game by 6.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

Last week I skipped across the pond and delivered the Oakland Raiders outright against the Chicago Bears, an easy free winner. This week I'm back in London, and I'm playing the Carolina Panthers minus the number against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This is a revenge game, as the Panthers won nine of 13 in the series, but lost the first meeting at home this season.

I'm becoming a big believer of Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, whose 866 yards from scrimmage are the second most through five games in NFL history, only to Jim Brown's 988 back in 1963.

McCaffrey has been the most electrifying player I've seen, from every angle, and will have field day against the Buccaneers' 26th-ranked defense, which also ranks dead last against the pass.

That'll open things up for Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, who has won all four career starts with seven touchdowns vs. no interceptions. He's become the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first four starts with no picks and now gets to dissect the worst passing defense in the league. The Bucs have allowed more than 300 yards passing over the past four weeks.

Carolina's defense isn't too shabby, either, ranking eighth overall. The Panthers have the fourth-best passing defense and I'm trusting their pass rush will make things difficult for quarterback Jameis Winston.

Take the Panthers in this one as I make it two in a row across the pond.

Keep in mind, as I always insist, with football favorites in this range, we're buying half points. And if this game is in between -2.5 and -4.5 points, I want you purchasing the half point down.

1* PANTHERS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free NFL winner this week is on the Seattle Seahawks over the Cleveland Browns.

While the verdict is still out on the Browns, I don't think there is much question about the potential of Seattle.

Cleveland comes into this one after a terrible showing against the underrated San Francisco 49ers. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw two of his league-high eight interceptions, was sacked four times, and finished with a mere 100 yards passing and a 13.4 rating.

And I really hate to say this considering I thought Cleveland would be better under his leadership, but Mayfield appears to be regressing, not progressing.

For the second straight week he completed just two passes to star Odell Beckham Jr., and he looks lost under pressure. Now you throw him to a Pete Carroll-coached defense, and I think it'll only get worse - even in Cleveland.

I'd rather back Russell Wilson, who looks rejuvenated and has even sparked MVP conversation around his play. Wilson has thrown for more than 1,400 yards, 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in five games, becoming the first QB with those stats in the Super Bowl era to do so.

Wilson's 73 percent completion percentage leads the league, as does his 126.3 rating, and I expect him to target Tyler Lockett this weekend. Lockett leads Seattle with 30 receptions through five games and is more than halfway to last year's career-best total of 57 receptions.

All Seattle on Sunday.

1* SEAHAWKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE CONNORS

Your Sunday complimentary winner goes out on the late card as I see this Tennessee-Denver contest being one of the lower-scoring games on this Week Six schedule.



After a 43 point opening week eruption in the win at Cleveland, the Titans have been very challenged offensively over their past 4 games, as Mike Vrabel's team is averaging under 14 points per contest since Week One. To their credit, the Titans have been stingy on defense, as they have not allowed more than 20 points in any of their games this season. Their opponents are averaging just over 15 points per game for the year, and each of Tennessee's last 4 games on the year have held Under the total.



That trend is likely to continue against a Denver team that returned to form in their 20-13 upset win over the Chargers last weekend, as the Broncos have played 3 of 5 Under the total this season, and did play their last 8 games last season Under the posted price as well!



With the Broncs only posting right at 19 points per game this season, this meeting with the Titans sure has the look and the feel of a game that sees between 30 to 35 points combined when the final seconds tick off the clock in the Mile High City.




Titans-Broncos Under the total.


5* TENNESSEE-DENVER UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, October 13 is:

Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 over New Orleans Saints.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Saints
Chiefs
Rams
Steelers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 6
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Seahawks at Browns (PK, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) escaped past Los Angeles in Week 5 with a nail-biting 30-29 home victory to improve to 2-0 in NFC West play. Russell Wilson continues to put together a terrific season for Seattle by throwing four touchdown passes, but the Seahawks dropped to 0-3 ATS at home after failing to cash as 1 ½-point favorites. The Seahawks have been solid to back on the road this season by winning at Pittsburgh and Arizona, while scoring 28 and 27 points, respectively in those victories.

On the flip side, the Browns (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have been tough to figure out this season. Granted, the expectations have been elevated, but Cleveland has not put together two solid performances in a row this season the Browns lit up the Ravens for 40 points, but were held to three points in last Monday’s blowout loss at San Francisco. The Browns have yet to win a game at home in two tries in 2019, but Cleveland has not dropped consecutive contests since Week 8 and Week 9 of last season.

Cleveland is 0-2 this season against NFC foes, while Seattle has beaten each of its two opponents from the AFC. Dating back to 2017, the Seahawks have covered eight consecutive games off an ATS loss, while the Browns’ offense has rebounded off a defeat this season by scoring 23 and 40 points following a setback.

Best Bet: Browns 26, Seahawks 24

Eagles at Vikings (-3, 44) – 1:00 PM EST

Two seasons ago, Philadelphia (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) destroyed Minnesota (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) in the NFC championship game as short underdogs on its way to the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl victory. The Eagles won that title behind Nick Foles at quarterback, as Carson Wentz looks to bring Philadelphia back into the top of the NFC. Wentz has led the Eagles to wins the last two games following a 1-2 start in victories over the Packers and Jets, as Philadelphia has topped the 30-point mark in each contest. The Eagles covered in their only underdog opportunity in 2019 at Green Bay, while posting a 3-0 ATS mark in their last three chances when receiving points.

The Vikings have cruised to home victories over the Falcons and Raiders by double-digits each, while coming off their first road win of the season against the Giants. Minnesota’s two losses came within the NFC North against Green Bay and Chicago, as the Vikings were limited 22 points in those defeats. The Vikings’ defense has been solid this season by allowing 16 points or fewer in four of five games, resulting in a 4-1 mark to the UNDER.

Minnesota avenged the 2017 NFC Championship loss by edging Philadelphia last season, 23-21 as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Vikings jumped out to a 20-3 advantage before the Eagles crept within two points in the final minute. Both Wentz and Kirk Cousins each threw for over 300 yards in that game, but each team was limited to below 81 yards on the ground.

Best Bet: Eagles 20, Vikings 17

49ers at Rams (-3, 50 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

Only one team remains undefeated in the NFC and it’s the 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS), who are fresh off a 31-3 blowout over the Browns last Monday. San Francisco easily cashed as five-point favorites off the bye, highlighted by an 83-yard touchdown run by Matt Breida and two touchdown passes from Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners own a solid 10-2 record since 2017 with Garoppolo starting at quarterback, as five of those wins have come away from Levi’s Stadium.

The Rams (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) sit in third place of the NFC West behind the 49ers and Seahawks entering Sunday’s action following consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle. Los Angeles has yielded 85 points in the past two losses, including 30 points in a one-point defeat at Seattle in Week 5. Rams’ quarterback Jared Goff threw for 395 yards, but L.A. suffered consecutive losses for only the second time under head coach Sean McVay. Running back Todd Gurley scored twice against the Seahawks, but the former University of Georgia standout will miss Sunday’s contest with a quadricep contusion.

Los Angeles swept San Francisco last season, but the Niners also played without Garoppolo in each of those games following his ACL tear last September. The Rams have scored 39 or more points in three of the past four meetings with the Niners, but San Francisco’s defense will be up to the task as it has yielded 57 points in four games this season.

Best Bet: Rams 27, 49ers 20

BEST TOTAL PLAY

OVER 40 ½ - Titans at Broncos

Both Tennessee and Denver have struggled to score points this season as the Titans have scored 17 points or less three times, while the Broncos have posted 20 points or fewer on four occasions. However, Tennessee is coming off a loss to Buffalo last week, as the Titans have posted 43 and 24 points in the role of a road underdog this season. The Broncos have been a bit hit or miss defensively as they have given up 16 and 13 in two games, but also allowed 24, 26, and 27 in three losses.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

New Orleans has rolled to a 3-0 record with Teddy Bridgewater as its starting quarterback, including back-to-back home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay. The Saints travel to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars, who continue to ride rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. Jacksonville has covered in three of four games with Minshew starting, including in its last home game against Houston in Week 3. This is the first time that Jacksonville is favored this season, as the Saints may be in a look-ahead spot with a visit to Chicago next week.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

The Chiefs opened as six-point favorites against the Texans at the Westgate Superbook last Monday, but that number has dropped to four. Kansas City is dealing with injuries on offense as wide receiver Sammy Watkins is listed as doubtful, while Tyreek Hill is a game-time decision after missing the last four games with an injury to his sternum. The Texans are 2-0 ATS on the road this season, including an outright underdog victory over the Chargers in Week 3. Dating back to 2018, Houston has covered in four of the past five opportunities in the road ‘dog role.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW

Since beating the Colts in Week 6 at home last season, the Jets have lost 13 of their past 14 games, including an 0-4 start in 2019. New York has failed to cover in its past seven opportunities at Met Life Stadium, while last cashing as a home underdog in Week 16 of the 2017 season against the Chargers. The Jets get quarterback Sam Darnold back in the lineup on Sunday as they face the Cowboys as seven-point underdogs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Steelers at Chargers
Matt Blunt

Pittsburgh Steelers at L.A. Chargers (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After grabbing an easy winner two weeks ago with the 'under' in the Cowboys/Saints game, last week's play on the 'over' in the Colts/Chiefs game was an easy loser in that the two teams never came close to sniffing that total. The Chiefs have a bit of a dilemma on their hands right now with how they expect to handle man coverage, but for an offensive mind like head coach Andy Reid, I wouldn't expect Kansas City's offensive struggles against that form of defense to continue. It's a copy cat league though, so until KC does figure out how to beat man, they are going to continue to see it in high doses.

This week's SNF game has a pair of teams that would tell you they've drastically underperformed this year, as at the beginning of the year, not many would have had the Chargers and Steelers a combined 3-7 straight up heading into this contest. But that's exactly where they stand as neither of them are at .500, and are probably another loss or two away from potentially packing things in for 2019. That's life in the NFL though, and if you get hit hard by the injury bug early in a season like these two teams have, it's awfully tough to turn things around enough to make the year a successful one.

Total Talk

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles have definitely been hit hard by injuries this year, with the most recent significant loss being Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph took a brutal head shot last week, was forced out of the game, and there is no timetable for his return. That means that it's third stringer Devlin Hodges shot at making a start in the NFL this week and for an undrafted guy to be thrust into that role just six weeks in is tough.

At the same time, The Chargers have been hit with injuries at nearly every position on their roster, and starting center Mike Pouncey is the latest Charger to go down. Losing your starting center is huge because he's the guy that's out there scanning defenses and calling out protection schemes – as well as having his hands on the ball each and every play – so it's not like the Chargers don't have their own adversity on the injury front to deal with as well.

All these absences have predictably had an effect on where this SNF total was going to come out, as 41.5 is the number that the game opened at, and it's stayed relatively static all week with about 65% support on the 'under.' And at least on paper, the 'under' does tend to make a lot of sense. You've got two losing teams, one on their third QB of the season, both marred by numerous injuries offensively, and because of all that, neither averages more than the 20.6 points per game the Chargers put up. Pittsburgh comes in at 19.8 PPG on the year, so a total around 41 makes a lot of sense, and to many it makes a lot of sense to go 'under' as well given the extenuating circumstances.

Yet, at the same time, the Chargers have turned the ball over four different times this year inside the 5-yard line, and have shot themselves in the foot all year long with turnovers. LA has turned the ball over eight times this year with the vast majority directly taking points off the board for them. Sloppy play like that is why they come into this game with a losing record, and if they are able to clean up those things this week, I think we could see them look like the team that made it to the Divisional round last January.

On the flip side, Hodges is a relative unknown other then what we saw from him in his relief appearance last week. And while fear of the unknown in all aspects of life tends to have us shy away from those scenarios, you listen to the market here and they've already decided that he's going to be in well over his head this week. It's 'under' recommendations everywhere in the industry, and I'm just not sure this game will be as easy as that.

Sure, Hodges could end up being well over his head and look like the undrafted QB that he is, but him being on unknown commodity also hurts LA's defensive gameplanning because they really don't have a great idea of what to expect. That means the defensive strategy is probably going to look very vanilla early on to leave plenty of room for adjustments, and that in itself isn't an 'over' killer.

Side Spiel

Hodges being an unknown, and all the injuries across the board have me ignoring this side completely out of simply not knowing what to expect. You take away all the turnovers LA has had in critical spots this year and they probably do deserve to be laying about a TD that they are, but at the same time, they've got next to nothing in terms of home field advantage at that stadium, and Pittsburgh may be 1-4 SU, but their last three losses have come by a grand total of nine points.

If Hodges looks like the deer-in-headlights QB that seemingly the world expects him to be, the Chargers likely get the cover. If he doesn't and looks like at least a capable backup in this league, Pittsburgh could keep it close. I'm not about to venture a guess on what this game script turns out to be, so good luck to those of you who are venturing out on a side play for this game.

Final Thoughts

I will venture a guess on the idea that Hodges isn't going to struggle nearly as much as the majority in this industry believe, especially if he gets to see vanilla coverages for the first 15-30 minutes. Yes, the Chargers defense has been great all year in allowing 18.8 points per game, but in each one of those, they knew how to prepare and what to expect from the opposing QB/offense. That's not the case here, and I would not be surprised to see Hodges and the Steelers throw some wrinkles at the Chargers early to keep them off-balanced. If that happens, points should come in a hurry, because the Steelers organization definitely saw enough from Hodges at the collegiate level to give him a contract. Pittsburgh believes he has the skill set to help this organization if he were needed, and right now he's needed.

At the same time, the Chargers offense should be able to clean up these mistakes that have plagued them in recent losses, and make the most of their scoring opportunities. LA has scored 30 points in both of their SU victories this year, so if you do believe the Chargers win this game – as the point-spread would suggest – how can you not figure that LA won't threaten that 30-point barrier offensively here?

The Steelers defense has allowed at least 24 points to every team they've faced this year that's got at least one victory in 2019 – sorry Bengals fans – and that number has been hit by Steelers opponents in both of Pittsburgh's road games this year.

Finally, we can't forget that SNF games this year are a perfect 6-0 'under' this year, and while 'under' supporters will use that as more evidence for that selection, I view it as a negative in that regard. Everyone already wants the 'under' in this game because of the injury situation on both sides, and then there is the confirmation bias on the 'under' run on SNF. To me, that sets up as almost a perfect storm to be contrarian as contrarian gets, and go 'over' this number in a heartbeat. The fact that this game looks like an easy 'under' to the world only makes me feel stronger about doing that too.

So it's not like I haven't been wrong before, and I'll be wrong plenty more in the future, but I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to the Steelers organization in terms of prepping Hodges for this start and to have a play calling strategy that gives him the best chance to succeed. At the same time, I've got to give the benefit of the doubt to a QB like Philip Rivers that he and the rest of the Chargers offense can clean up their turnover issues sooner rather then later and start putting more TD's on the board.

I fell victim to believing last week's SNF game with KC and their high octane offense would be the one to crack the goose egg on 'overs' for SNF this year, but it was probably always going to be a game that everyone least expects to do so that actually does it. This Steelers game with a 3rd/4th string QB at the helm and a banged up Chargers team definitely fits that profile.

Best Bet: Over 41.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Vikings are 10-0-1 since Dec 11, 2005 coming off a road game that did not end in a tie where they had a player with at least 125 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.04 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game as a dog where they allowed at least 22 first downs.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Teams are 0-7 OU (-6.00 ppg) since Nov 23, 2017 coming off a road game where Kirk Cousins threw at least two touchdowns.


SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- Games since 1998 with a total of 41+ when both teams scored 10 or fewer points in their last game are 29-11 OU. Active on Washington/Miami


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-14 OU (-8.23 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 215 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The 49ers are 14-0 OU (10.04 ppg) since Dec 16, 2012 on the road coming off a home game where they rushed for at least 130 yards.


NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Broncos are 10-0 ATS (+14.30 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick after a win as a road dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 6
Joe Williams

We head into the meat of the Week 6 schedule and the action started Thursday as the Giants-Patriots (43) game went 'over' for the third consecutive mid-week matchup. Even though the pair combined for 49 points, the 'over' was helped with three defensive and special teams scores. On a side note, the Patriots offense has just as many touchdowns (3) as the defense has this season. Including New England's victory over New York, winning teams are averaging 33 points per game over the past three Thursday night games, with the losing side is posting 20 PPG.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 5 8-7 6-9 8-6-1
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 36-42 31-46-1 39-37-2

The books had another strong performance in Week 5, helped out in part by the result of the Chicago Bears-Oakland Raiders game in England. The total inched 'over' in that one, too. We'll touch more on the International Series below.

Division Bell

The four division battles saw the over connect in three of the outings in Week 5. The Ravens-Steelers game was helped out by the fact the contest was decided in overtime, but it was a rather miraculous result since undrafted free-agent quarterback Devlin Hodges played a majority of the game for Pittsburgh in place of injured QB Mason Rudolph, who is 'out' for Week 6, by the way. Hodges is the third-string QB for the injury-depleted Steelers.

Divisional Game Results Week 5
L.A. Rams at Seattle Over (48.5) Seattle 30, L.A. Rams 29
Baltimore at Pittsburgh Over (44) Baltimore 26, Piittsburgh 23 (OT)
Tampa Bay at New Orleans Over (46.5) New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 24
Denver at L.A. Chargers Under (45.5) Denver 20, L.A. Chargers 13

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 6 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Atlanta at Arizona: 47 to 51 ½
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 48 to 50 ½
Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers: 43 ½ to 41 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay (London): 46 to 47 ½
Houston at Kansas City: 54 to 55
Washington at Miami: 41 to 42

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 6 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets: Over 92%
Atlanta at Arizona: Over 87%
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Over 81%
New Orleans at Jacksonville: Under 75%
Houston at Kansas City: Over 67%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (66 percent) in the Washington-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in Pittsburgh-L.A. Chargers (65 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 6

Week 5 Total Results
Year Over/Under
Divisional matchups 3-1
NFC vs. NFC 1-1
AFC vs. AFC 0-2
AFC vs. NFC 4-3

London Totals

Week 6 will kick off with a divisonal battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium in London featuring the second Carolina-Tampa Bay matchup of the season. The first time these teams met, the Bucs won 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, which was also the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). It was also the last time we saw the Panthers take a loss, as they have won three in a row under QB Kyle Allen.

This will be the first division battle overseas since the Rams blanked the Cardinals in Week 7 of the 2017 season, a game which went 'under'. We have had 25 regular-season games played in London since the start of the NFL International Series back in 2007, but only three divisional matchups. The 'under' is 2-1 in those games. Will the Bucs and Panthers follow suit with a line of 47.5? The under is 4-1 in Carolina's past five against divisional foes, while going 5-2 in Tampa's past seven against teams with a winning record.

London Results - Past Eight Games
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7

Other Week 6 Action

Houston at Kansas City: We saw QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) aggravate his ankle injury last Sunday night, and that really played a factor in his mobility and effectiveness. The Chiefs were tripped up at home 19-13 by the visiting Colts, and the 'under' connected. Vegas isn't expecting his ankle to be an issue, as they have set the total in the mid-50's, the highest total of the weekend slate. It's something to watch, not only this week, but in the following weeks, as the 'under' could be a sneaky play in Kansas City games due to inflated totals. Make a note that while Houston has been a great 'under' team at home, the 'over' is on a 4-1 run in its last five road games and the offense is averaging 27.4 PPG in those games.

Philadelphia at Minnesota: The Eagles hit the road for the third time this season. They have averaged 27 PPG away from home, while allowing 25.5 PPG. For the Vikings, they're averaging 31 PPG in their two home games at U.S. Bank Stadium, while yielding just 13 PPG. Due to the defensive effort of the Vikings at home, the total is set at a rather low 44, but the Eagles are not the struggling Falcons or inconsistent Raiders offensively. The last time Philadelphia played at this venue, it put on an offensive show as it defeated New England 41-33 in Super Bowl 52.

Seattle at Cleveland: The last time these teams met resulted in a 30-13 win by the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. While the Browns were expected to be different, they have really struggled to jell offensively. Outside of a 40-point outburst against the Ravens in Week 4, the Browns offense has been rather moribund, posting 13, 23, 13 and 3. The 'under' has hit in three of the past four as a result. Seattle has had no such struggles on offense, going for 21 or more points in each outing, and 27 or more in each of the past four. They're averaging 27.5 PPG in two road games to date.

Washington at Miami: In the 'Tank Bowl', the winless Redskins and winless Dolphins square off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. I'm actually anticipating this game rather heavily to see exactly how good, or how bad, the tanking is. This will be the first game for Washington under interim head coach Bill Callahan, who is going back to Case Keenum as his QB. When healthy, Keenum has moved the offense, posting 21 PPG in the first three games before flaming out in Week 4 against the Giants before getting pulled. The 'over' went 3-0 in his first three starts, however. The defense has yielded 24 or more points in every game, so we might see Miami's highest output of the season.The Dolphins are dead-last in total yards allowed (472.0), rushing yards (175.8) and points per game (40.8), while checking in 31st in passing yards (296.2) allowed. For second-half total bettors, Miami hasn't scored in the final 30 minutes in any of its games this season.

Atlanta at Arizona: The Falcons have been hard to figure out this season, as they 1-4 SU with some varying results offensively. They were worked over 28-12 in Week 1 on the road, failing to score until the fourth quarter. In the past two road games they have averaged 28 PPG while allowing a total of 80 points, and they're giving up 20 or more points in all five contests to date. A lack of defense has been the only consistent thing about the Falcons, so perhaps rookie QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals will get the offense rolling. In three home games Arizona is averaging 19 PPG while coughing up 27 or more points in all three games, or an average of 30.7 PPG.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of six or more points for Week 6, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 ½ to 48 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half.

Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. ET): The Bengals are on the short end of a double-digit spread in Charm City. They have really struggled offensively, helped in large part due to injury problems along the offensive line. The fact wide receiver A.J. Green has been sidelined all season hasn't helped, either. Cincinnati is averaging just 16 PPG, ranking 29th in the NFL, while posting just 319.2 total yards per game to check in 26th. The defense isn't much better, ranking 30th with 411.8 total yards allowed, and they've been gouged for 167.6 rushing yards per contest to rank 31st. That's bad news when prepping for dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. The over is 7-3-1 in the past 11 for Cincinnati inside the division, while going a perfect 4-0 in Baltimore's past four divisional battles.

Dallas at N.Y. Jets (4:25 p.m. ET): The Jets get their starting QB Sam Darnold (illness) back this week, as he looks to give the Jets an injection of offense. He posted 16 points in his first and only appearance this season, and that was a seaso-nhigh in production for New York. They're averaging just 7.7 PPG over the past three games under the leadership of QBs Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk. The defense is perhaps the bigger concern, allowing 28 PPG over the past three outings. The Cowboys have slacked off over the past two games, averaging just 17 PPG across the past two games, both losses. They opened with three straight wins, posting 35, 31 and 31 points. Look for the Cowboys to get back to that type of production in a stadium they're very familiar, MetLife Stadium, since they face the Giants here once per season. The 'over' is also 2-1 in they're three games against losing teams, including 1-0 in their road game in such situation.

Pittsburgh at L.A. Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET): The Chargers are favored by 6 ½, and Vegas is expecting a rather low-scoring game on Sunday Night Football. For those tracking Sunday Night Football, we haven't seen an over ticket yet this season...going a perfect 6-0. With the UDFA QB Hodges making a start for the Steelers, expectations aren't terribly high that we're going to see a track meet. The 'under' is 37-15 in Pittsburgh's past 52 road outings, while going 16-5 in the past 21 on the road against teams with a losing home mark. The under is 4-1 in the past five at home for the Bolts, while going 21-8 in the past 29 vs. AFC teams.

Under the Lights

Detroit at Green Bay (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Monday Night Football game this week will have the rested Lions, coming off of their bye, facing the red-hot Packers, coming off a 34-24 win at Dallas to show they're still a power in the NFC. The Lions could easily be 4-0 at this point, if not for a Week 1 meltdown late, settling for a tie on the road against the Cardinals. They also had some late-game issues in the Week 4 battle against the Chiefs, falling 34-30. The 'over' has connected in three of their four games to date, posting 27 or more points offensively in each of those games. The outlier is a 13-10 win over the Chargers in Week 2. It was an outlier defensively, too, as they have given up at least 24 points in three of their four contests.

The Packers struggled offensively in a divisional battle to open the season, winning 10-3 in Chicago. They also saw the 'under' cash in Week 2, another divisional battle and win against the Vikings. However, they're averaging 29.3 PPG over the past three outings while yielding 24.8 PPG, seeing the 'over' hit in each of those three. The last time these teams met in Lambeau Field was Dec. 30, 2018, but the Packers rested an ailing QB Aaron Rodgers, so the Lions 31-0 win and 'under' result can mostly be discounted. They met Oct. 7 last season, with the Lions winning 31-21 in an 'over', and that is a little more of what to expect.

While it's still early, be aware that teams off the 'bye' this season have watched the 'under' go 2-0 in their games with the 49ers and Jets going low last week. As mentioned above, Detroit will be playing with rest and Miami will as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SYNERGY

Event: (261) Philadelphia Eagles at (262) Minnesota Vikings
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Philadelphia Eagles 3.0 (-121)

Eagles rate the better team for us in our database and we have to take the points in a matchup that looks to be a toss up. Betting against Minnesota last week gave us our only loss of 7 releases last wee, but they did it against a team that has lots of problems. Philly fattened up against mediocity also last week but has been faring better coming into last week. We dont believe in the Vikings yet becuase they just aren't showing it across all aspects of the game. Eagles have banded together through some early season injuries and difficulties. Minnesota is only 1 week removed from player apologies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (269) Dallas Cowboys at (270) New York Jets
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 13, 2019 4PM EDT
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7.0 (-103)

BET SIZE = 1% of bankroll

DB's THOUGHTS:

The Cowboys have lost two straight, first at New Orleans and then at home against Green Bay. So, it's bounce-back time for Big D. The 'boys have already proved they can beat up on the league's punching bags, having defeated the Giants, Redskins & Dolphins by an average score of 32-15. Dallas is 10-3 SU and 8-4-1 ATS as road chalk since Dak and Zeke came into the league in 2016, including 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games in that role. And if Dallas is off a loss and laying points on the road, they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that same span.

Yes, Sam Darnold is back under center for the Jets. I have to believe there will be some rust, and the Cowboys defense is a pretty good unit. And let's face it, it's not like the Jets were setting the world on fire before Darnold became ill. The Jets with Darnold under center are 0-3 SU/ATS as home dogs (all from last season). And this Jets team has many more problems than just the QB position.

The Jets just represent another doormat for an angry Cowboys bunch to roll over.

FWIW, I think a 6-point Teaser with Dallas & Tennessee looks pretty good, too.

PLAY DALLAS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JIMMY BOYD
NHL | Oct 13, 2019
Penguins vs. Jets

1* Free NHL Pick on Pittsburgh Penguins +110

Easy play here on the Penguins as a small road dog against Winnipeg. Pittsburgh has really shown off their depth as they keep calling guys up and getting them to produce. Penguins cruised to a 7-4 win at Minnesota last night and have won back-to-back.

A lot of people will be looking to take the Jets, as they won 4-1 at Pittsburgh earlier this season. I like the Penguins to get their revenge and a big reason for that is the fact that this is an ideal spot to fade Winnipeg. The Jets are playing their 3rd in 4 nights, plus are off a 3-2 overtime thriller at Chicago last night.

Penguins are 6-2 last 8 when playing on 0 days rest and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 as an underdog. Jets are just 3-7 in their last 10 off a win, 3-8 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record and 1-6 in their last 7 as a home favorite. Take Pittsburgh!