Thursday 10-31-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:21 AM

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

National Football League Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-2
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 75-41-1
Against the Spread 50-65-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 56-60-1
Against the Spread 43-72-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-61-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

Razor Thin Margin

-- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

London Fog

-- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat. RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13.

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

Looking Ahead

-- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

-- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

-- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

-- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:21 AM

Close Calls - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Most of this week’s games apply as if you won in Week 8 on sides, congratulations, almost every game could have gone the other way with many of those games certainly deserving of an opposite spread result.

Minnesota Vikings (-17) 19, Washington Redskins 9 (41½): There were eight scoring plays on Thursday night, but seven were field goals as Minnesota posted more than twice as many yards but couldn’t pull away. Washington trailed by just seven late in the third quarter and got the ball back with a stop on 4th-and-1 just outside of Minnesota field goal range. Two plays later, Dwayne Haskins was intercepted to set-up a Dan Bailey field goal early in the fourth quarter to put Minnesota up by 10. A late touchdown would be enough for most Vikings backers on a spread that opened at -14½ and only hit -17 very late in the day before kickoff. The Vikings had the opportunity and attempted to score despite Washington being out of timeouts late, but ultimately wound up stopped on 4th-and-4 from the Washington 7-yard-line in the final minute.

Detroit Lions (-6) 31, New York Giants 26 (49): The Lions had a 14-0 lead early, but Detroit has made a habit of blowing leads this season. Sure enough the Giants scored the next two touchdowns, but missed a PAT to trail by one. The Lions would stretch the edge to four by halftime and led by five through three quarters after an exchange of touchdowns in the third with the Giants failing going for two. Detroit hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to lead by 12 before New York was stopped on downs on back-to-back possessions. Detroit would go backwards on both late possessions and getting the ball back just ahead of the two-minute warning, the Giants were a backdoor threat. A 25-yard pass interference call put New York in business and with 1:19 remaining the Giants found the end zone. Down six, New York matched the closing number and opted to kick the important PAT to lose by just five.

Tennessee Titans (-2) 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (45½): The Buccaneers have appealing numbers but the consistent turnovers stand out and they came to bite in this contest with Tampa Bay posting a 389-246 yardage edge in a narrow loss. The Titans led by two at halftime after the Buccaneers went for two after a score right before the break and came up short. The Buccaneers would get eight on an early third quarter score however to lead by six. Tennessee added a late third quarter field goal to trail by three, but forced a punt with Tampa Bay unwilling to go for it on 4th-and-1 in its own territory. The Titans then nearly doubled their offensive production for the game with a 12-play, 90-yard drive to deliver the go-ahead score, slipping past the slight favorite spread with 6:55 to go as well. Tampa Bay had three more possessions that ended in a fumble, failing on 4th-and-1 in Tennessee territory, and finally a deep pass from Jameis Winston intercepted at the Tennessee 25-yard-line.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 17, Chicago Bears 16 (41): The Bears commanded this game in the numbers, but settled for three first half field goals while the Chargers got a touchdown. The scoring mode flipped in the third quarter as the Bears were able to find the end zone and led 16-10 as a slight home favorite after a Chargers field goal late in the third quarter. Mitchell Trubisky fumbled in Chicago territory on the next possession and the Chargers were able to go 26 yards for a touchdown in three plays to lead by one. Chicago had a productive drive to reach the Los Angeles 37-yard-line, but Trubisky took a 3rd down sack and the Bears had to punt. The defense got the stop to give the Bears another chance and rather than taking a few shots to get a touchdown or get closer, the Bears took a knee in the final minute and watched Eddy Pinero miss left from 41 yards.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) 27, Atlanta Falcons 20 (48½): The closing line says seven but that wasn’t an overly common price on this game. Seattle opened at -3 and held at -3½ early in the week before number jumped with Matt Ryan ruled out. Seahawks -8 was typical over the weekend as results wound up varying on this game. Multiple outcomes didn’t seem possible as Seattle led 24-0 at halftime, but Matt Schaub would prove to be a productive backup getting the Falcons 11 points in the third quarter. A Seattle field goal with about six minutes left in the game made the lead 16 and seemed safe, but Atlanta went the distance in fewer than three minutes and suddenly was within 10, failing on a two-point conversion that mattered for many. In many ways that might have been a worse outcome for Seattle backers as with a two-score lead, the Seahawks could still relax and they punted back while taking just 27 seconds off the clock. Schaub and the Falcons managed the clock well and kicked a second down field goal without using a timeout to trail by seven while still leaving more than a minute on the clock, giving many late-week Falcons backers a win. The on-side kick went out of bounds to end any further threat as Seattle held on and the total that fell throughout the week stayed just ‘under’.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) 29, New York Jets 15 (40): Jacksonville dominated this game in most ways and led 22-7 after a late third quarter field goal. An early fourth quarter touchdown with a successful two-point conversion suddenly put the Jets down just seven to land even with the common weekend number though early in the week Jacksonville opened at -4½ and was -6 to -6½ for long stretches. The Jaguars gained 30 yards on the next possession but had to punt. Hopes for a New York comeback were short-lived however with a penalty, a negative rushing play, and an interception on three snaps for the Jets. On a short field, Jacksonville found the end zone on 3rd-and-goal to go up by 14. Sam Darnold was intercepted across midfield on the next possession for the Jets while another late series ended on downs.

Los Angeles Rams (-12) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (48½): In London, the Rams got more they bargained for with the winless Bengals with a 10-10 tie late in the second quarter before a trick play gave Los Angeles a 65-yard touchdown. Out of halftime, the Rams added another touchdown to slip past the heavy favorite spread. The Bengals appeared ready to answer reaching the edge for field goal range before going backwards and needing to punt on 4th-and-long. Cincinnati held the Rams to four straight punts the rest of the game, but two late drives deep into Los Angeles territory came up empty with a field goal not being worth considering given the time and score. The Bengals couldn’t convert from the 6-yard-line with about five minutes remaining and on a late drive appeared to get the underdog cover with a touchdown with eight seconds to go. On review, the play was overturned and the Bengals came up incomplete on its last shot from inside the 10. Winning by 14 with only 24 points, Rams backers escaped with a very fortunate cover in a game where the Bengals had more than 400 total yards, but just 10 points.

New Orleans Saints (-12½) 31, Arizona Cardinals 9 (48): Arizona trailed New Orleans just 10-6 at halftime but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 form its own 30 early in the third quarter. The aggressive play was commendable as Kliff Kingsbury is breaking the mold, but the move backfired with the Saints adding a short-field touchdown to go up 17-6 a few plays later. Arizona would add a field goal and through three quarters both teams had three scores, but Arizona had only field goals. Still down one score, Arizona couldn’t get a big third down stop early in the fourth quarter and the Saints went up by 15. About halfway through the final frame, the Cardinals reached the New Orleans 27-yard-line, but a field goal did no good at that point and 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 attempts to extend the series were stopped. A deflated Cardinals defense gave up back-to-back big plays as the Saints put the game away with another touchdown with five minutes to go.

Houston Texans (-5½) 27, Oakland Raiders 24 (52): The total wound up with mixed results on this game landing right on 51 where the number sat for big chunks of the week. Oakland led this game 21-13 as a Houston win didn’t seem in play but the Texans scored in the first few seconds of the fourth quarter and just went for one to trail 21-20. The Raiders managed a field goal to go up by four before a wild sequence with Deshaun Watson delivering a go-ahead touchdown pass but appearing to be seriously injured. Up three, the Houston defense forced an Oakland punt and was a serious threat to steal the cover, but Oakland exhausted its timeouts and Houston with Watson still in the game, was ultimately able to take a knee well across midfield after the two-minute warning without needing to try to advance further or consider a late field goal.

New England Patriots (-10) 27, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): Double-digit spreads in the NFL are rarely out of play as while the Patriots were in complete control after 17-0 first quarter, a Browns cover lurked as a real possibility. Down 27-10, Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-16 deep in its own territory and went further backwards. Dealt a 14-yard field, the Patriots went backwards as well and missed on a 34-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. A touchdown would have trimmed the margin to 10, but the Browns came up just short of a 1st down on a late series in New England territory and after a false start pushed it to 4th-and-6, they opted to kick a field goal to trail by 13. The Browns would get the ball back with about a minute to go and picked up a big gain with a pass interference call but a sack followed. With no timeouts left and the clock would run out a few plays later with the game staying just ‘under’ as well.

Green Bay Packers (-5) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (48): A quick 14-0 lead for the Packers was erased in the second quarter as the Chiefs got a good performance from Matt Moore and the defense created some pressure. The Sunday night game was tied 17-17 through three quarters and 24-24 with nine minutes to go. The Packers scored on a 67-yard short pass and run from Aaron Jones to lead by seven but more than eight minutes remained. The Chiefs reached the 40-yard-line and opted to punt on 4th-and-3 with more than five minutes remaining and three timeouts left, a decision it isn’t clear they would make with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay was able to covert a pair of third downs and run out the remaining clock for the win and narrow cover.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:22 AM

NFL Week 9 opening odds and early action: Patriots-Ravens quickly draws two-way play
Patrick Everson

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have put together a 13-game win streak. New England opened -5 at Baltimore, the Ravens immediately got bet at +5 and +4.5, then New England drew a $31,045 wager.

NFL Week 9 is on deck, and the Sunday night game is already on the move. We check in on the opening odds and early action for that matchup and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (+5)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England hasn’t lost since the middle of last December, going 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS. In Week 8, the Patriots (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 27-13 as 9.5-point favorites.

Baltimore leads the AFC North at 5-2 SU after winning its last three before a Week 8 bye. In Week 7, the Ravens (2-5 ATS) snapped a five-game spread-covering slide, knocking off Seattle 30-16 as 3-point road underdogs.

“We opened Patriots -5 and saw money come in on Baltimore at +5 and +4.5,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “Then we took a bet for $31,045 on the Patriots -4. The Ravens will be a huge-need game for the books everywhere next Sunday night, especially if the afternoon games are chalky.”

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

Kansas City was without Patrick Mahomes in the Week 8 Sunday nighter, but Matt Moore and Co. gave Green Bay all it could handle. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) scored 17 straight second-quarter points to erase a 14-0 first-quarter deficit and were in it the rest of the way, losing 31-24 as 5-point home ‘dogs.

Minnesota returns from its bye week looking to build on a four-game win streak. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) went off as hefty 16.5-point Week 7 home faves against Washington and managed a 19-9 victory, halting a three-game spread-covering streak.

With Mahomes’ Week 9 status unclear, The SuperBook held off on posting the opening number for this game. But Murray offered a little insight into where the line might land if Moore is still under center.

“It would depend a lot on the result of (the Sunday night) game and how K.C. and Moore look without Mahomes,” Murray said during the Packers-Chiefs tilt, in which Green Bay was a 5-point road chalk. “But Minnesota is considered slightly better than Green Bay, so it would be something close to what Packers-Chiefs was. Maybe a touch higher, unless K.C. wins, then a touch lower.”

That being the case, Murray said if Mahomes returns, the Chiefs will be short home favorites.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

San Francisco remained in elite company through eight weeks, sticking with New England as the only unbeaten outfits. The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) steamrolled Carolina 51-13 as 4.5-point favorites Sunday.

Arizona is better than expected this year, with a rookie coach and quarterback, but its three-game SU and ATS win streak ended in Week 8. The Cardinals went to New Orleans as 12.5-point pups and were dealt a 31-9 setback.

“We opened 49ers -7.5 and are still there,” Murray said. “Arizona will be one of the biggest needs of the week for us in the NFL. A ton of moneyline parlay and teaser wagers will start with the 49ers.”

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)

Philadelphia got a much-needed Week 8 win, snapping a two-game skid to get back to .500. The Eagles (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) shuffled over Buffalo 31-13 laying 1 point on the road Sunday.

Chicago looks little like the squad that last season went 12-4 SU and ATS, leading the league in spread-covers. The Bears (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) held a 16-7 third-quarter advantage against the Los Angeles Chargers, but didn’t score again in a 17-16 loss laying 3.5 points at home Sunday.

“We opened Eagles -4.5 and have been bet up to -5,” Murray said. “It’s hard to imagine people wanting to bet on Chicago right now.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:22 AM

301SAN FRANCISCO -302 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 16-3 ATS (12.7 Units) versus excellent defensive teams - allowing <=260 yards/game since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:22 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 0) at ARIZONA (3 - 4 - 1) - 10/31/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:22 AM

NFL

Week 9

Trend Report

Thursday, October 31

Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Arizona is 3-8-1 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:23 AM

NFL

Week 9

49ers (7-0) @ Cardinals (3-4-1)— Unbeaten 49ers have five wins by 13+ points; they’ve held last five opponents to 100 or fewer passing yards, outscoring them 56-10 in 2nd half. SF is 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-13-9 points; four of their last five games stayed under total. In last five games, 49ers won field position by average of 9.8 yds/game- they’re 32 of last 70 on third down. Arizona won three of last four games; they’re 1-2-1 SU at home. Redbirds’ last three losses were by 18-17-22 points; they’re 16-49 on 3rd down in their losses, 29-63 in other games. Since 2009, Arizona is 21-14-1 ATS as a home dog. Cardinals won last eight series games, taking last five played here, with last three by 3-3-3 points- they lost last two visits by identical 18-15 scores.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:23 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 301-302
October 31, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
143.955
Arizona
124.276
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 19 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 9 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-9 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:23 AM

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 9:

Road Teams: 73-46-2 ATS
Home Teams: 46-73-2 ATS

Favorites: 50-69-2 ATS
Underdogs: 69-50-2 ATS

Home Faves: 29-52-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 17-21 ATS

Road Faves: 21-17 ATS
Road Dogs: 52-29-2 ATS

O/U: 55-66

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:24 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 9 odds: Chargers' shake-up puts urgency on Over
Jason Logan

The Chargers are averaging less than 20 points per game and hope firing their offensive coordinator can jump start the scoring attack around QB Philip Rivers.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team, but betting the best number. Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 9 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: SAN FRANCICO 49ERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (+9.5, 43)

The spread for this NFC West Thursday night game opened Arizona as an 8-point home underdog after the Cardinals were thumped 31-6 by New Orleans in Drew Brees’ return to action and the Niners laid the lumber to Carolina in a 51-13 blasting.

Books pinned that dead number on the board, looking to the early money to dictate the movement and mold the line, and what they saw wasn’t that surprising. Instant action on San Francisco has this spread teetering on -10 at most books, and while the 1.5-point move from Niners -8 to -9.5 may look big, it’s not as notable as a jump to -10 – which is starting to pop up in select markets.

If you’re onboard with the undefeated 49ers Thursday night, buy it now at -9.5. The public loves to bet the favorites in primetime games and this spread may not only go to -10 it could even end up with a half-point hook on that key number.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6.5, 52)

Seattle opened -6.5 at most markets and the sharp opinion on this game has been the Buccaneers, trimming the vig on the Seahawks at most books and even axing half a point of the line entirely at select spots.

Tampa Bay is coming off a frustrating loss at Tennessee in Week 8, in which a scoop-and-score in the fourth quarter was incorrectly whistled dead, eventually leading to a 27-23 defeat. Seattle found itself in a closer-than-expected game at Atlanta and has three wins in the past four games - all decided by a touchdown or less.

If you’re leaning to the home side, hold up and see if you can grab Seattle -6. That number should start popping up mid-week as the industry evens out. However, don’t wait too long. The public is expected to side with the Seahawks, and that could make this line closer to -7 come kickoff. This is a perfect situation to use that Covers Live App Line Alert. DING!

TOTAL TO BET NOW: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS OVER 46.5

This Over/Under is on the move, ticking upwards from 46 to 46.5. And for good reason.

The Packers have had a slew of injuries to their offense but that doesn’t seem to matter with Aaron Rodgers slinging the pigskin. Green Bay has fully adapted Matt LaFleur’s playbook and is piling on the points, averaging 32.5 over its current four-game winning streak. Receiver Davante Adams could return to the lineup after missing four games with turf toe, giving another weapon to Rodgers arsenal and influencing the Over/Under.

The Chargers fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt Monday after their slow start to the schedule. Los Angeles, which enters Week 9 with a 3-5 record, is putting up just 19.6 points per game despite a bevvy of offensive weapons and a veteran QB in Philip Rivers. Head coach Anthony Lynn could take over play calling, but the Bolts are hoping the move sparks some scoring in Week 9.

If that shakeup has you sitting on the Over, you may want to bet this number now – at 46 if available – as I predict it will creep up to 47 and beyond before Sunday’s 4:25 p.m. ET start time.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: TENNESSEE TITANS AT CAROLINA PANTHERS UNDER 41

This Over/Under opened as low as 40 points and has been bet up as high as 41. According to our early consensus numbers, 65 percent of totals tickets are on the Over and could increase this Over/Under before Sunday’s start.

Tennessee’s offense has looked much improved since making the move from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill at QB. In his two starts, Tannehill has passed for 505 yards and five touchdowns, sparking the Titans to victory with scores of 23 and 27 points.

Carolina, on the other hand, heads back home with its tail between its legs after getting spanked in the Bay Area on Sunday. The Panthers defense gushed yardage, including 232 yards rushing to the 49ers, and now takes on another potent RB in Derrick Henry.

This is one of the lower totals on the Week 9 board, so if you’re thinking about taking the Under, play it cool and see if you can get this total at 42 points or higher before clicking “place bet”.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:24 AM

Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 31

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Cards 5-3 vs. line this season. Note Niners “under” 5-2 TY and 11-6 last 17 since mid 2018. “Unders” 5-2 last seven in series. Cards have won SU last 8 meetings!
Tech Edge: -“Under” and slight to Cards, based on “totals” and series trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:24 AM

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Patriots 6-2 ATS
t1. Packers 6-2 ATS
t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
5. Niners 5-2 ATS
6. Colts 4-2-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

32. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t24. Jets 2-5 ATS
t24. Bucs 2-5 ATS
t24. Browns 2-5 ATS
t24. Bears 2-5 ATS
t24. Ravens 2-5 ATS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:25 AM

by: Josh Inglis

BETTING ON THE BEST

Lamar Jackson went into Seattle in Week 7 and knocked off the league’s frontrunner for MVP on the back of 116 yards rushing on 14 carries. Jackson is doing things on the ground that have never been done in the NFL, averaging 101 yards on 14 carries and 0.5 TDs over his last four games. This stretch has seen the Baltimore Ravens quarterback go 4-0 Over/Under for his rushing-yard total.

Jackson will have his toughest test this year versus the New England Patriots in Baltimore on Sunday night. The Pats haven’t allowed more than 18 rushing yards to a QB since Week 5, but New England hasn’t faced a talent like Jackson, who leads the league in yards per rush at 6.9 with that number jumping to 7.7 at home.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen ran for 26 yards on five carries and a score in just over two quarters in Week 4 versus the Pats, an indicator that New England can be susceptible to QB running. Grab the Over on Jackson’s rushing total on any number below 73 yards.

PRIMETIME 6-POINT TEASER

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA (SF -4): Although we think it will be difficult for San Francisco to cover double digits on a short week, four points are much more realistic against an Arizona team that is crippled at running back. The Cardinals also don’t match up well versus the Niners defensively as Kliff Kingsbury’s defensive unit ranks 26th in rush DVOA defense, giving up 130 yards on the ground per game.

NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE (NE +2.5): The Pats come into Sunday night’s game as 3.5-point road favorites — their smallest spread of the year. Tom Brady & Co. have traveled well going 3-1 ATS on the road with the only ATS loss coming against the Bills. The Ravens have held opponents to just 18.7 points a game over their last three and won’t run up the score against the league’s top DVOA defense.

DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (DAL -1): Dallas is coming off its bye, helping the receiving corp heal up as they face a New York Giants team giving up over 30 points a game in its last three outings. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings by an average margin of 12.4 points. The Giants have to find a way to stop Dak Prescott, who is averaging 287 yards passing with seven rushing touchdowns in his last 16 games.

SELLING THE SACK STREAK

We are 3-0 in the month of October with our Over sack props and looking to push that streak to four in a game we are expecting to see quarterbacks face down.

The Carolina Panthers have gotten to opposing QBs at a league-best rate of 4.3 sacks per game while also struggling to keep Kyle Allen horizontal, surrendering seven sacks last week and eight in the previous three games.

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won’t fare any better come Sunday as the veteran has been sacked nine times in 10 quarters since taking over the starting job.

This total will most likely be set at 6.5 as opposed to the usual 5.5 but is still a recommended play for any bettor looking to change things up. Hit the Over.

SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS

The New York Jets are bad. That’s not surprising. But opening as 1-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins is a big slap to the face for Adam Gase’s squad, which has since been bet up to -3.

The New York offense has looked putrid since the Cowboys game, putting up just 15 points and 367 yards in their last two games. Over that same stretch, QB Sam Darnold’s unit has converted 4 of 20 third downs leading to a time of possession of only 24 minutes, which would rank as the worst mark in the league.

As bad as the offense is, the defense might be in worse shape heading into the Dolphins’ game. Middle Linebacker C.J. Mosley is out and defensive captain Jamal Adams seems to have lost his motivation, taking issue with being shopped at the trade deadline and had some choice words for the Jets’ GM

The spread scares us a bit considering the Dolphins’ second-half woes, but this Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has a great chance to top its team total of 18.5 points after getting the taste of competitive football over the last two week. Take the Dolphins team total Over 18.5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-31-2019, 08:25 AM

TNF - 49ers at Cardinals
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The 49ers (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) remained the lone unbeaten team in the NFC by blowing out the Panthers, 51-13 to easily cash as 4 ½-point home favorites. Carolina not only entered last week’s affair at Levi’s Stadium off the bye, but the Panthers were riding a four-game winning streak before the Niners stormed out to a commanding 27-3 halftime advantage. Brand new 49ers’ wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders scored the first touchdown of the game on a four-yard reception from Jimmy Garoppolo as the former Bronco and Steeler finished his San Francisco debut with four receptions for 25 yards.

The day belonged to running back Tevin Coleman, who rushed for 105 yards and scored four touchdowns for the Niners, who totaled 232 yards on the ground as a team. Coleman reached the end zone twice during the first half scoring surge, capped off by a 48-yard touchdown scamper right past the two-minute warning for the 24-point edge. The 49ers busted the 40-point mark for the second time this season, as San Francisco posted 41 points in a Week 2 rout of Cincinnati, while limiting its fourth straight opponent to 13 points or fewer.

The Cardinals (3-4-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) entered the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on a three-game winning streak last Sunday, as Arizona has made plenty of strides after finishing 2018 with the league’s worst record at 3-13. However, the Cardinals ran into a buzz saw as the Saints won their sixth consecutive contest, 31-9, while also getting future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees back in the lineup after missing five games with a thumb injury.

Brees threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns, while his counterpart, rookie Kyler Murray failed to throw a touchdown pass for the fourth time in five games. Murray has gone four straight games without being intercepted, but the top pick out of Oklahoma only posted 220 yards, while Arizona’s offense produced 10 first downs and 40 yards rushing. In the last two games against winning teams, Arizona has been outscored, 58-9, which includes a 27-10 home defeat to Seattle back in Week 4.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

San Francisco’s defense ranks first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (224.4) and sits second behind New England in points allowed per game (11.0). The 49ers have not given up more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 3 against Pittsburgh, while yielding 17 points or less in six of seven contests. The ‘under’ has hit in three in four games away from Levi’s Stadium, while allowing a total of seven points in the last two road wins against the Rams and Redskins.

Arizona’s defense has been shredded at home in four games at State Farm Stadium this season. The Cardinals have allowed 27 points to the Lions, 38 to the Panthers, 27 to the Seahawks, and 33 to the Falcons, while the only win at home came against Atlanta in a one-point triumph. Arizona was without its top player in the secondary for those four games as Patrick Peterson sat out due to a six-game suspension, as the former LSU standout will make his home season debut on Thursday.

SERIES HISTORY

Two of Arizona’s three wins last season came against San Francisco, but there are several asterisks involved in those victories. First, the 49ers did not have Garoppolo under center, as he missed these losses due to a torn ACL suffered in September. Secondly, San Francisco was tripped up at home despite outgaining Arizona by 227 yards and committing five turnovers, while blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in the second matchup in Arizona.

Josh Rosen led the Cardinals past the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium, 28-18 as three-point underdogs, but the biggest disappointment belonged to ‘under’ backers. The total closed at 40 ½ as Arizona led San Francisco, 14-6 heading to the fourth quarter, but the two NFC West rivals combined for 26 points in the final seven minutes, including a fumble return for a touchdown by Arizona.

San Francisco jumped out to a 15-3 advantage in Glendale three weeks later as 2 ½-point road favorites, but Rosen marched the Cardinals to a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, capped off by a nine-yard scoring strike to Christian Kirk for the go-ahead score with 34 second remaining. The Niners went with C.J. Beathard in those two games in place of Garoppolo at quarterback, as the former University of Iowa signal-caller threw for 190 yards (55 of which on a touchdown pass to Marquise Goodwin.

Arizona has captured five consecutive home meetings with San Francisco dating back to 2014, while beating San Francisco in eight straight matchups. The Niners edged the Cardinals, 23-20 in 2013 for their last win in the desert, while dominating Arizona, 24-3 in 2012 for their last victory as a road favorite (-7) in the series.

THURSDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Underdogs have cashed in six of eight Thursday night games this season, including the Redskins covering as 16 ½-point ‘dogs in last week’s 19-9 defeat at Minnesota. However, the favorite has won the last four Thursday contests, while road favorites are 1-1 SU/ATS in these games, as Tennessee lost at Jacksonville in Week 3 and Kansas City blasted Denver in Week 7.

San Francisco last appeared on a Thursday night came in 2018 as the 49ers routed the rival Raiders, 34-3 at Levi’s Stadium. Arizona would certainly like to forget its past time in the Thursday spotlight as the Broncos destroyed the Cardinals, 45-10 last season as one-point home underdogs.

TOTAL TALK

The total on this game opened at 44 and the number has dropped to 43 as of Thursday. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on the midweek matchup.

“The success of the 49ers turnaround has been their defense and it’s truly amazing that this year’s unit is allowing 11 PPG while the club gave up 27.2 PPG last season. That production has translated into plenty of ‘under’ tickets even though the San Francisco offense has put up some crooked numbers at times, which includes last week’s 51-13 dominating home win over Carolina. I wouldn’t be surprised to see San Francisco light up the scoreboard again, knowing Arizona is ranked 29th in both scoring defense (27.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (407.1 YPG). The team total on the 49ers is hovering around 26 ½ points, which seems a tad low in my opinion. Especially when you know Arizona has allowed 27-plus points in all four of its home games this season,” said David.

San Francisco has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 on the season, which includes a 3-1 mark away from home. Meanwhile, Arizona’s total results have been a stalemate at 4-4 but the high side has gone 3-1 in its four games from the desert. This series has leaned to the ‘under’ with the low side cashing in four of the last five encounters. The averaged combined points in those games was 37 PPG between the pair.

David dug up a solid season angle to watch on this matchup and it could have you leaning to the ‘under’ in this divisional contest. He said, “The 49ers will likely close -10 or higher and if that’s the case, they’ll be the 19th team that is listed as a double-digit favorite this season. When you see teams laying heavy points in the NFL, most bettors would side with the favorite-over combo since a wire-to-wire blowout is expected. That hasn’t been the case though. Rather, it’s the defensive units that have carried the ‘chalky’ clubs so far. In the 18 games, the ‘under’ has gone 14-4 and that includes a 5-0 record last week.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on the quarterback matchup between Murray and Garoppolo, “Murray ranks 23rd in the league in QB Rating, but that is only a few spots behind Garoppolo. Murray has only seven passing touchdowns and hasn’t been a big play threat with just 6.8 yards per attempt, with Arizona’s offense often settling for field goals with Zane Gonzalez tied for first in the NFL with 21 made 3-pointers. Garroppolo has a nearly 70 percent completion rate but he has only nine touchdown passes along with seven interceptions as he doesn’t have the profile of a 7-0 signal-caller.”

The 49ers have been a surprise in the loaded NFC, but Nelson dug deeper into their schedule and it’s easy to see why they have been successful, “The first six wins for the 49ers came against teams that currently have a 13-32 record. The dominant performance against the Rams stood out but last week’s blowout win over a surging Carolina team has most finally paying attention to San Francisco as a top NFC contender. Facing a short week as a road favorite in a division game will be a different role for the team and certainly the back half of the 2019 schedule is much tougher than the front half still playing Seattle twice plus games with the Packers, Ravens, and Saints in succession.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Completions – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 19 ½ (-110)
Under 19 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Over 1 ½ (-130)
Under 1 ½ (+110)

Total Rushing Yards – Tevin Coleman (SF)
Over 75 ½ (-110)
Under 75 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – George Kittle (SF)
Over 68 ½ (-110)
Under 68 ½ (-110)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Kyler Murray (ARZ)
Over 227 ½ (-110)
Under 227 ½ (-110)

Will the Cardinals get a rushing touchdown?
Yes +150
No -180

Total Receiving Yards – Christian Kirk (ARZ)
Over 56 ½ (-110)
Under 56 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The 49ers opened up as 8 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas on Monday with a total of 44. Rewinding back to May when CG Technologies first opened up lines on every NFL game, San Francisco was listed as a three-point favorite. The Niners have jumped to a 10-point favorite at both Westgate and CG, while the total has slipped to 42 ½.

Thursday 10-31-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 10-31-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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