Thursday 10-31-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

College Football Week 9 Results

WAGER Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-17
Against the Spread 31-26-1

WAGER Home-Away
Straight Up 36-22
Against the Spread 36-21-1

WAGER Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 29-28-1

YEAR TO DATE Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 452-113
Against the Spread 287-267-11

YEAR TO DATE Home-Away
Straight Up 381-180
Against the Spread 276-274-11

YEAR TO DATE Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 268-294-9

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Kansas State (+23.5, ML +1100) vs. Oklahoma, 48-41
Colorado State (+14, ML +450) at Fresno State, 41-31
Oklahoma State (+11, ML +320) at Iowa State, 34-27
Illinois (+9.5, ML +280) at Purdue, 24-6
Kentucky (+9.5, ML +300) vs. Missouri, 29-7
San Jose State (+9.5, ML +300) at Army, 34-29
Rutgers (+7.5, ML +260) vs. Liberty, 44-34

The largest favorites to cover
Clemson (-35) vs. Boston College, 59-7
Alabama (-32) vs. Arkansas, 48-7
Western Michigan (-27) vs. Bowling Green, 49-10
Northern Illinois (-22) vs. Akron, 49-9
Utah (-21) vs. California, 35-0

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)

-- SMU stayed unbeaten with a 34-31 victory Thursday night at Houston. The Mustangs entered with a 7-0 record on the 'over', but this game officially pushed at most shops. They're still 8-0 SU, and they will face off against Memphis in a nationally-televised game on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET. ... The Tigers almost made ABC's decision look like a bad one, as Tulsa had them on the ropes. The Golden Hurricanes were set up for the short, game-winning field goal and the upset as 9.5-point underdogs. However, the kicked shanked it left and disaster was averted for Memphis. Tulsa is 2-6 SU this season, but they've had several near-misses, including their OT loss at SMU after carrying a big lead into the fourth quarter. While they're on a four-game skid, they're 3-1 ATS during the span with the 'over' 3-1. ... South Florida rolled to a 45-20 win at East Carolina, as the Bulls have turned things around after a 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS start. They're 3-1 SU/ATS over the past four, and now just two wins from bowl eligibility. The 'over' is 4-1-1 in the past six for USF, too.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)

-- North Carolina held off rival Duke, getting an interception at the goal line in the final few seconds at Kenan. Officially the 20-17 decision was a push at most shops (see below). ... Miami-Florida picked up the road win at Pittsburgh by a 16-12, keeping Coastal chaos alive and well. The Hurricanes were without their leading rusher RB Deejay Dallas, and QB N'Kosi Perry wasn't close to 100 percent, but they got the win. Miami is 4-4 SU/ATS and the 'over/under' is 4-4. In other words, they're one of the hardest teams to figure. ... Virginia opened the season with a 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS record, but they are just 1-3 SU over their past four and 1-4 ATS across the past five outings. Louisville topped them 28-21, keeping the Cavaliers from attaining bowl eligibilty. The Cardinals are now 5-3 SU/ATS so far. ... Remember when everyone thought Clemson was done, or not one of the best teams in the country? They spanked Boston College by a 59-7 score, covering the largest spread in a BCS game this week, -35. The Tigers hit the 'over' themselves, too. Clemson has covered three in a row, and five of the past six.

BIG TEN

-- It was a sloppy day all over in the Big Ten, with torrentials rains in games in Ann Arbor, East Lansing and West Lafayette, among others. You have to love the fall and real football weather. Illinois continues to surprise, winning 24-6 on the road at Purdue, following up their surprising win over Wisconsin last week. The Illini are 4-4 SU, and they have covered three in a row. ... Minnesota posted the impressive 52-10 win over Maryland, improve to 8-0 SU for the first time since 1941. After starting out 0-2-1 ATS, the Golden Gophers have covered their past five in a row. All eyes are on their matchup with Penn State in two weeks. ... Speaking of the Nittany Lions, the battled the rain and slop, turning aside Michigan State by a 28-7 score. Surprisingly, this game nearly hit or at least pushed the total (42), but a scoreless fourth quarter splashed cold water on that, pun totally intended. ... Michigan annihilated rival Notre Dame in a driving rain for a good chunk of Saturday's game, winning 45-14. It is the last scheduled battle between these rivals until 2033. ... Last, but certainly not least, Ohio State steamrolled Wisconsin by a 38-7 count. The Badgers entered the day having yielded just 29 points in the first six games, but now they have allowed 62 total points in the past two weeks, losing consecutive games for the first time since 2016. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have won eight in a row to start, and they haven't allowed anyone to score more than two times in a single since the opener against FAU of all teams. Ohio State has covered seven in a row since that game against Lane Kiffin's Owls, too.

BIG 12

-- The Texas memes and snipes at Tom Herman were spreading like wildfire in the Twitterverse following their 37-27 loss at TCU. The Longhorns barely scraped by last week, and suddenly they're 5-3 SU and just 2-3 ATS over the past five outings. ... Texas Tech went to Kansas and lost in one of the strangest ways possible. In the closing seconds, Kansas lined up for the game-winning field goal. They had it blocked, and the Red Raiders attempted to return it. They subsequently fumbled, Kansas got the ball back with just :01 left on the clock, getting another chance at the field goal. They buried this time, and won 37-34 to move to 3-5 SU. Suddenly it's en vogue to back the Jayhawks, too, as they're a perfect 3-0 ATS over the past three with the 'over' 5-1 in the past six. ... Oklahoma State posted a 34-27 win on the road as 11-point underdogs against Iowa State. The Cowboys slapped the brakes on a two-game skid, and 0-2 ATS run, improving to 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS. ... Of course, the big story of the day was the win by Kansas State over Oklahoma, 48-41. The Wildcats improved to 5-3 SU/ATS, and tossed a monkey wrench into the CFP picture, allowing plenty of teams to shoehorn back into the conversation.

CONFERENCE USA

-- Florida Atlantic atoned for a loss last week by going to Old Dominion and throttling the Monarchs, 41-3. The Owls have now posted a 5-3 SU/ATS record, and they haven't failed to cover in back-to-back game this season. The Owls did lose their leading passer, QB Brian Robinson, and leading rusher, RB Malcolm Davidson, so that's something to watch going forward. ... Next up for FAU is a battle with Western Kentucky, a team which fell 26-23 at Marshall. Despite the loss, the Hilltoppers picked up their fifth consecutive cover. ... Middle Tennessee posted a surprising 50-17 victory against Florida International, snapping a three-game winning streak for the Golden Panthers.

MID-AMERICAN (MAC)

-- Western Michigan topped Bowling Green by a 49-10 count, easily covering a 27-point number. Under bettors weren't happy with this result, though (see below). ... Kent State fell at home to Miami-Ohio by a 23-16 score, as the Redhawks have won and covered consecutive games this season, and they're also 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four. ... Akron was blasted yet again, falling 49-0 at Northern Illinois. The Zips are now 0-8 SU/ATS on the season, the only team in FBS yet to cover this season. ... Buffalo topped Central Michigan by a 43-20 count as the 'over' connected. The Bulls have covered three in a row, too. ... Eastern Michigan slipped in overtime at Toledo, 37-34. The Eagles are now just 1-4 ATS across the past five outings.

MOUNTAIN WEST

-- San Diego State isn't wowing people with big offensive totals, but they keep on winning. They topped UNLV by a 20-17 score, moving to 7-1 SU/5-3 ATS with the 'under' also 7-1. ... San Jose State headed east and won another game on the road. They topped Arkansas earlier this season, and this weekend they stunned Army, 34-29. The Spartans are 4-4 SU this season, and an impressive 4-1-1 ATS over the past six outings. ... Air Force picked up a 31-7 win over Utah State, running the ball down their throats. The Falcons have won and covered a season-high three in a row heading into their non-conference rivalry game with Army next week. ... Hawaii returned to the mainland and oicked up the 45-31 victory in New Mexico. The Warriors improved to 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past three for Hawaii.

PAC-12

-- The best game of the day was easily the Washington State-Oregon battle in Eugene. It was a seesaw battle that lasted four hours and some change. Wazzu took a 35-34 lead with exactly one minute remaining, but QB Justin Herbert drove the Ducks down the field for the game-winning field goal as time expired, keeping the playoff hopes alive for the Ducks and the Pac-12. ... USC escaped with a 35-31 win at Colorado. The banged up Trojans earned the four-point win, their first on the road this season. They're also 1-3 ATS away from home. ... UCLA pulled off the 42-32 win over Arizona State, and they technically can still go to the conference title game if they win out. The Bruins have won and covered consecutive games for the first time this season, and the 'over' is 3-0 in the past three outings.

SOUTHEASTERN (SEC)

-- LSU held off Auburn by a 23-20 score. The Tigers have a huge battle at Alabama on Nov. 9. ... Speaking of 'Bama, it was no Tua and no problem for the Crimson Tide. They topped lowly Arkansas by a 48-7 score even without star signal caller Tua Tagovailoa (ankle). The Tide are 8-0 SU, but just 4-4 ATS this season and they have yet to cover in consecutive outings. ... Kentucky surprised Missouri in Lexington by a 29-7 count. The Tigers were in first place in the SEC East at one point, but they have dropped two in a row and failed to cover the past three. ... Tennessee topped South Carolina by a 41-21 score, covering for the third consecutive outing. The Vols have had a disastrous season, but they're 3-5 SU and still technically alive for a bowl berth if they can win three of the final four against UAB, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt.

SUN BELT

-- Georgia Southern topped New Mexico State 41-7, as total bettors were feeling some fourth-quarter pain in this one (see below). ... Georgia State managed an impressive 52-33 win over Troy, moving to 6-2 SU and 5-1-2 ATS. The Panthers are now bowl eligible, too. ... Appalachian State earned the 30-3 win at South Alabama, keeping their hopes alive for that New Year's Day bowl game. The 'under' has cashed in three in a row for the Mountaineers, but they're four-game cover streak came to a close, just barely - by a half-point.

Bad Beats

-- Duke drove inside the 2-yard line and could have won outright. A trick play inside the 2-yard line in the final seconds was thwarted at the goal line, killing those holding a Blue Devils side ticket and a moneyline ticket.

-- New Mexico was trailing 45-17 with five minutes to go and a total of 71. They scored two touchdowns without a minute, closing to 45-31 and pushing the total over.

-- New Mexico State was down 41-7 through three quarters wit ha total of 53.5. That's exactly how the game ended, so if you had an over ticket it's not necessarily a bad beat as it is bad luck, but anyway...this happened twice on the day.

-- In the MAC, Western Michigan was up 49-10 through three quarters with a total of 65.5 in the game against Bowling Green. After a scoreless fourth quarter, that's how things ended, too. Ugly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 9
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the ninth big weekend of the college football season to close October.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Toledo (-2½) 37, Eastern Michigan 34: This MAC contest had major momentum swings going from 10-0 to 10-10 by halftime before Toledo scored three touchdowns in the first six minutes of the third quarter to lead 31-10. Eastern Michigan would take over the game with three consecutive touchdowns, the third of which tied the game with 2:35 to go. Toledo fumbled deep in its own territory on the next possession to seemingly hand the Eagles the game but the Eagles would miss a 33-yard field goal. Going first in overtime Eastern Michigan would settle for another field goal and made it but on a 3rd-and-10 Toledo would find the end zone for the win and narrow cover.

Southern Miss (-10) 20, Rice 6: Rice got on the board with a touchdown with six minutes to go in the third quarter to trail by only seven after missing the PAT. The Owls wound up with only 139 yards in the game but were in position to cover with Southern Miss missing a field goal in the fourth that would have put the Golden Eagles up by 10. Looking to run the clock out Southern Miss converted a 3rd down near midfield and Rice called timeout with 1:24 remaining. The Owls got a stop on 1st down but on 2nd down Kevin Perkins broke through for 38 yards and a touchdown, slipping past the spread with 32 seconds to go.

Hawai’i (-10) 45, New Mexico 31: The outcome in Albuquerque was not in doubt for long with a 35-3 halftime lead for the Warriors. New Mexico broke a 67-yard run in the third quarter to find the end zone but Hawai’i added 10 more points to lead 45-10 with nine minutes remaining. New Mexico would score three consecutive touchdowns to become a late backdoor cover threat and they had the ball back with more than three minutes to go. The offense moved the ball and had a new set of downs at the Hawai’i 28-yard-line with a score looking inevitable, but an interception would save Warriors backers with 2:25 to go.

Marshall (-3½) 26, Western Kentucky 23: The line on this game fell throughout the week but Marshall took command early up 23-7 with a field goal midway through the third quarter. Western Kentucky would score near the end of the third to climb within 10 but missed on the PAT. The Hilltoppers quickly were a threat to score again but settled for a short field goal from 1st-and-goal. Up seven Marshall stalled near midfield and had to punt and Ty Storey led Western Kentucky quickly down the field, tying the game at the 6:19 mark. After an exchange of punts, overtime looked likely as a dormant Marshall offense had just over a minute to work with but the Herd inched their way down the field going 51 yards in 10 plays to have a late shot, with kicker Justin Rohrwasser winning the game after an icing attempt by hitting from 53 yards, though those on the favorite were hoping for overtime.

Appalachian State (-28) 30, South Alabama 3: The Mountaineers couldn’t have been much more in control of this game but through three quarters the lead was just 23-0 on a spread that was as low as -24½ early in the week and climbed to close at -28. With just over five minutes remaining South Alabama would hit a field goal to avoid the shutout and seemingly secure the underdog cover but about a minute later Appalachian State broke a 67-yard touchdown run to get there for early week wagers on the Mountaineers.

North Carolina (-3) 20, Duke 17: North Carolina led 14-3 early in the third quarter after a four-play touchdown drive out of halftime. Duke scored two touchdowns in 20 seconds of game clock in the middle of the third aided by an interception to suddenly take the lead. The eventful third quarter continued with a tying field goal from the Tar Heels before a run of five consecutive punts with only one combined first down. North Carolina would go in front with a 40-yard field goal at the 7:00 minute mark, right even with the closing spread though much of the week UNC was at -3½. Duke couldn’t answer and it appeared the Tar Heels would put the game away after they converted a 4th down in the red zone and had 1st-and-goal. On the next play a fumble was recovered by Duke and Quentin Harris would lead an epic late drive that included two fourth downs. Duke eventually had 1st-and-goal at the 3 in the final minute and inched closer with a pass interference call. The clock wound down to just 18 seconds before an inexplicable trick play went horribly wrong for Duke as after a handoff Deon Jackson leaped into the air and attempted a pass that went right to a pair of Tar Heel defenders, intercepted by former quarterback Chazz Surratt.

Navy (-5) 41, Tulane 38: Navy stormed out to a 24-0 lead and still led 31-14 at halftime. Tulane made some adjustments and benefited from good field position to add two touchdowns in the third quarter to get back in the game, trailing by only three. With 10 minutes to go Tulane tied the game with a field goal with Navy held to nine net yards on its first three second half drives. The Midshipmen made a bold decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 34 and got it and then converted another 4th-and-1 a few plays later still on their own side of the 50. Two plays later Navy was in the end zone and back up by seven with about five minutes remaining. Tulane converted its own 4th down on a 12-play 77-yard drive to tie the game with about a minute to go. Not known for big plays or quick scores Navy was able to get into field goal range and Bijan Nichols was good from 48 for the win, though Tulane held the underdog cover.

Miami, FL (+4½) 16, Pittsburgh 12: The Panthers had a severe production edge in this game but had three turnovers and settled for three field goals as Miami led 10-9 through three quarters with Miami’s scoring drives coming on 30 and 17 yards respectively. Pittsburgh was in position to take the lead midway through the fourth quarter but back-to-back penalties pushed the Panthers from the 1-yard-line to the 11 and they kicked the field goal to go up by just two. Getting the ball back with fewer than four minutes remaining a Miami offense that had produced 154 net yards in the game didn’t seem like a great threat for a game-winning drive but a 4th down was converted near midfield and Jarren Williams hit K.J. Osborn for a 32-yard touchdown with 58 seconds to go.

Charlotte (+3½) 39, North Texas 38: The Mean Green led by 14 entering the fourth quarter but Charlotte would hit a big play to climb within eight and failed going for two. The 49ers would block a North Texas field goal attempt with just over six minutes to go to stay in the game and they quickly added another touchdown but again were unable to come up with the conversion. On its next drive North Texas kicker Ethan Mooney hit from 51 to push the lead to five with just over a minute remaining, a huge kick for those involved on the spread. It wound up not mattering however as Charlotte’s offense again wouldn’t be stopped, going the distance and finding the end zone with 18 seconds to go for the win.

LSU (-12½) 23, Auburn 20: LSU led just 16-13 through three quarters despite a substantial production edge, missing a few opportunities to get ahead further in the third quarter. An 11-play drive that was completed early in the fourth quarter put LSU up by 10 before six consecutive punts as LSU was unable to pull away. Auburn would add a late touchdown for get within three despite a 508-287 yardage edge for LSU.

Memphis (-9½) 42, Tulsa 41: Memphis led 14-0 quickly in this game and still was ahead 35-24 late in the third quarter. Tulsa would rally however with a touchdown late in the third, a quick Memphis punt, and a 14-play, 85-yard touchdown drive that put the Hurricane in front. Memphis would fumble to hand the ball right back but Tulsa had to settle for a field goal to lead by six. A nice kickoff return put the Tigers in good field position and three plays later Memphis was back in front by one. Tulsa delivered a great final drive but kicker Jacob Rainey missed from only 29 yards as the Tigers escaped to set-up next week’s big AAC West showdown with SMU.

Kansas (+6½) 37, Texas Tech 34: Texas Tech led 27-14 late in the third quarter but Kansas would connect for a 65-yard touchdown, getting within seven after the PAT was blocked. The Jayhawks hit another big play in the fourth quarter with a 70-yard pass play to tie the game. Texas Tech answered just a few plays later with a long strike of its own to go back up by seven, just past the common spread. After a pair of punts Kansas delivered a 10-play touchdown drive to tie the game with about five minutes to go and the Jayhawks would force a quick punt on defense. Carter Stanley led an effective drive that chewed up the remaining time and Kansas lined up for a field goal with 13 seconds to go. The kick was blocked and recovered by Texas Tech but fumbled back to Kansas on an ill-advised lateral attempt. Two seconds remained on the clock and with the change of possession it was first down and Kansas kicked in the game-winner on the retry.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

303GA SOUTHERN -304 APPALACHIAN ST
APPALACHIAN ST is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GA SOUTHERN (4 - 3) at APPALACHIAN ST (7 - 0) - 10/31/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-1 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W VIRGINIA (3 - 4) at BAYLOR (7 - 0) - 10/31/2019, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BAYLOR is 1-1 against the spread versus W VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
W VIRGINIA is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, October 31

West Virginia @ Baylor
West Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of West Virginia's last 5 games
West Virginia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baylor
Baylor
Baylor is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baylor is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games when playing Appalachian State
Georgia Southern is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 10

Thursday’s games
Appalachian State is 7-0 with a win at North Carolina; they outscored last three opponents 99-17, running ball for 615 yards in last two games. Mountaineers are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 2-1 TY. Georgia Southern won first three Sun Belt games, winning twice by 3 points; Eagles ran ball for 1,020 yards in those three games. Under Lunsford, GSU is 2-1 as a road underdog, 1-1 TY. ASU (-10) got upset 34-14 at Georgia Southern LY, its first loss in last four series games; Eagles lost their last two visits to ASU 27-6/31-13. Favorites covered four of five series games.

7-0 Baylor has Big X home wins by 2-3 points; they threw ball for 664 yards in last two games. Under Rhule, Bears are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1 TY. West Virginia lost its last three games, allowing 132 points while running for only 62.7 yards/game. Mountaineers are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-2 TY; they lost two of three road games, winning 29-24 (-4.5) at Kansas. Four of their last five games went over the total. WVU won last three series games, scoring 96 points in last two meetings; home side won six of seven series games- WVU lost two of three visits to Waco, Underdogs are 4-3 ATS in series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, October 31

West Virginia @ Baylor

Game 305-306
October 31, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
88.216
Baylor
100.732
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baylor
by 12 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baylor
by 18
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
West Virginia
(+18); Over

Georgia Southern @ Appalachian St

Game 303-304
October 31, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
81.357
Appalachian St
94.016
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 12 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 15 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Southern
(+15 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football Week 10 opening odds and early action: Bettors hit Georgia first vs Florida
Patrick Everson

Georgia can't afford another loss, and neither can Florida in a Week 10 neutral-site clash at Jacksonville. The Bulldogs opened 3.5-point favorites, then moved to -4 on some early action.

Week 10 is the last one to make an impression on the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season. We check in on opening odds and early action for a quartet of key games, with insights from Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.

No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 Florida Gators (+3.5)

Georgia put itself in a must-win position for this game by severely stubbing its toe in Week 7, losing outright at South Carolina as 20.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) rebounded by blanking Kentucky 21-0 as 23.5-point Week 8 favorites, then had a bye in Week 9.

Florida’s lone loss also came in Week 7, though in much more respectable fashion at Louisiana State, where it stuck around throughout before succumbing late, 42-28. The Gators (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) then did what Georgia couldn’t, winning at South Carolina 38-27 as 3.5-point Week 8 faves. Florida also had a bye in Week 9.

Per usual, Jacksonville’s TIAA Bank Field hosts this neutral-site game, long dubbed the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

“This is obviously the biggest game of the week and a de facto play-in for the SEC title game,” Chaprales said, before noting the line uptick to Bulldogs -4. “The first move was toward Georgia, but we’re expecting smart money to take the points with Florida. It should be good two-way action, regardless.”

By Monday night, Florida bettors had more points to take, as the line shot to Georgia -6. PointsBet USA's trading team said sharp Bulldogs action and market movement led to the big adjustment.

No. 8 Oregon Ducks at Southern California Trojans (+4.5)

Oregon is the Pac-12’s best hope for a CFP bid, with its lone loss a quality one in a neutral-site Week 1 setback against Auburn. But the Ducks (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) barely stayed in that playoff conversation in Week 9, needing a final-seconds field goal to beat Washington State 37-35 laying 14 points at home.

Likewise, Southern Cal was a double-digit Week 9 favorite and barely got the job done. The Trojans (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) were giving 10.5 points at Colorado on Friday night and trailed much of the game, but nabbed the 35-31 win on a late touchdown.

“A potential preview of the Pac-12 championship game, neither of these teams impressed in victory as double-digit chalk this past weekend,” Chaprales said. “That said, we’ve seen more Oregon interest this year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number grow.”

No. 14 Southern Methodist Mustangs at No. 23 Memphis Tigers (-3.5)

Southern Methodist is in the rare air of perfection, sitting at 8-0 SU and a solid 6-2 ATS through nine weeks. The Mustangs got all they could handle at Houston last Thursday, hanging on for a 34-31 victory as 12-point road favorites.

Memphis is also having a solid year in the American Athletic Conference, at 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS). Much like SMU, though, the Tigers got a tough Week 9 road test, scoring a touchdown with 4:26 remaining to snare a 42-41 victory over Tulsa as 10-point faves.

“All quiet so far, but given that both teams have overachieved relative to market expectations, and this is a nationally televised prime-time game, it will be interesting to see how the public gets involved,” Chaprales said.

By Monday afternoon, someone got involved, as the line jumped to Memphis -4.5, and by Monday night, the Tigers were up to -5.5.

No. 10 Utah Utes at Washington Huskies (+2)

Utah is a longer shot to make the CFP, but a win this week would certainly help keep it in the conversation. The Utes (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) won and cashed their last four outings, including a 35-0 bashing of California as 21-point home favorites in Week 9.

Washington was thought to be a preseason CFP contender, but already has three losses. In Week 8, the Huskies (5-3 SU and ATS) held a 28-14 lead over Oregon early in the third quarter, but gave it back in a 35-31 loss catching 3 points at home. Washington had a bye in Week 9.

“We opened Utah -2 and took a few bets at that number, and then a bit more following an initial move to 2.5, pushing it up to 3. That figures to be the resistance point,” Chaprales said.

As it turned out, 3 wasn’t quite the resistance point. PointsBet USA moved Utah to -3.5 by Monday afternoon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 10 Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 31

Matchup Skinny
Edge

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at APP STATE...App State 5-2 vs. line TY, now 18-5-1 vs. spread since late 2017. GSU on a bit of an uptick too (4-0-1 vs. line last 5). App has won SU last five meetings, covering four. Mounties 10-1 vs. spread last 11 away form Boone.
App State, based on team and series trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at BAYLOR...WVU beginning to struggle, no wins or covers last three TY. Bears are 7-0 SU but only 4-3 vs. line, Rhule 1-3 laying DD in 2019. Rhule just 2-7 as Waco chalk since 2017 (1-2 TY).
Slight to West Virginia, based on extended trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

West Virginia at Baylor
Joe Nelson

Thursday night college football moves to the Big XII this week, a conference that was in the spotlight last week for a few notable upsets.

Baylor sits on top of the standings with an undefeated record and this will be the first chance for a national audience to view the Bears as they host West Virginia in prime time Halloween night.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears
Venue: At McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 31, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Baylor -17½, Over/Under 57
Last Meeting: 2018, at West Virginia (-14½) 58, Baylor 14

There has been good reason that Baylor hasn’t climbed too high in the national rankings despite a perfect start out of the Big XII, now 7-0 and ranked #12. The Bears played an incredible weak non-conference slate and even struggled in an eight-point win at Rice. Baylor narrowly slipped by Iowa State in the conference opener while also having just a three-point escape hosting Texas Tech but the road wins have been impressive with convincing results at Kansas State and at Oklahoma State. Both of those teams helped Baylor with upsets in the Big XII picture last week as the Bears are all alone on top of the standings.

Baylor is a heavy favorite this week but then will face a tough gauntlet in November playing TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas in succession before closing at Kansas. Next week’s game in Fort Worth will be a difficult road game but Oklahoma and Texas are visiting Waco. The Sooners are 4-1 in Big XII play but Baylor is in a great position to finish in the top two in the Big XII for a championship game spot with every other team in the conference with at least two losses and the Bears with wins over two of the remaining four two-loss teams.

Charlie Brewer has been a steady quarterback for Baylor with 66 percent completions and 9.5 yards per attempt. He has only three interceptions in nearly 200 attempts. Baylor has posted an average of more than 200 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry this season for good offensive balance. Baylor is in the third season under Matt Rhule who stepped into a mess in 2017 and went 1-11 before last season’s turnaround to 7-6.

The defense will be what separates Baylor in the Big XII should they stay in contention, allowing just 19.1 points per game overall and just 22.5 points per game in conference play in a league not known for quality defense. Baylor is 23rd nationally in yards per play allowed with good numbers against both the run and the pass. The Baylor schedule checks in ranking 73rd nationally by Sagarin compared to the 8th ranked slate for West Virginia as there are concerns about whether the Bears will be able to keep this pace going in November.

West Virginia was a serious Big XII and national contender much of last season, reaching 8-1 before losing the final two Big XII games narrowly to miss out on the Big XII Championship game. West Virginia lost to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl last December with star quarterback Will Grier opting not to play and then head coach Dana Holgorsen surprised many by departing for Houston after eight relatively successful seasons.

Neal Brown doesn’t have direct West Virginia ties but he did coach at Texas Tech for three years while also spending two years at Kentucky before becoming a head coach at Troy in 2015. He went 35-16 in four seasons at Troy including two 10-win seasons and an 11-2 2017 season, with three consecutive bowl wins as well. It was clear he was stepping into a bit of a rebuild with heavy personnel losses from last season for West Virginia and at 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the Big XII a winning season will be a surprise through the remaining schedule.

West Virginia has been outscored 156-88 in Big XII play with the only win narrowly at Kansas. The Mountaineers did beat NC State in non-conference play and have already played Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma, the three teams most considered the top conference contenders ahead of the season.

Replacing Will Grier was going to be a challenge and junior quarterback Austin Kendall has adequate numbers for the Mountaineers though with a low 6.4 yards per attempt average and seven interceptions. He played minimally in the Iowa State game but was back for the team’s most recent game, a 52-14 loss at Oklahoma. Running the ball has been a challenge for the offense as Kennedy McKoy leads the team with only 188 rushing yards through seven games with the team averaging fewer than 100 yards per game on 3.1 yards per carry, 118th nationally.

Next on the schedule is a home game with Texas Tech for the Mountaineers, arguably the most favorable remaining opportunity on the season with three of the final five on the road. Baylor is at TCU next Saturday as while winning this week may not provide much of a boost in the rankings, the Bears will have an opportunity to get more attention in the coming weeks and potentially keep national playoff sleeper hopes alive. Cool windy conditions are possible for Thursday night which presumably would favor the home favorite’s superior rushing attack.

Last season:

Off a bye week and a close road loss in Austin Baylor went to Morgantown last October on a Thursday night vs. the #13 Mountaineers and fell behind 41-0 by halftime. The Bears would score twice in the third quarter to save some face but the 58-14 final was a convincing result for a West Virginia squad that entered the game off a bye week and the season’s first loss in the previous game at Iowa State. West Virginia had a 568-287 yardage edge and a 4-0 turnover edge. Quarterback Charlie Brewer had a terrible start and left the game early after just one completion while Will Grier kept his name in the Heisman race with a big game.

Series History:

West Virginia is 5-2 S/U but 2-5 ATS in this series since joining the Big XII in 2012. Baylor has covered in all three home meetings in the series with two S/U wins though West Virginia has won S/U in the past three meetings in this series including the 2017 meeting in Waco. Eight is the smallest spread in the seven meetings in this series with six spreads of 12 or more over the years with heavy favorite prices in both directions.

Historical Trends for Baylor:

Baylor is 24-19 as a home favorite since 2011 but the Bears had a huge run in that role from 2011 to 2014 and are only 10-17 ATS since 2015. Since 2011 Baylor is 27-22 as a double-digit favorite but is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 instances since October 2015. Matt Rhule is a bit of an ATS legend with a 35-16 ATS mark in his four seasons at Temple and he is 16-16 ATS at Baylor since 2017 even with a rough start in a very difficult transition.

Historical Trends for West Virginia:

Since 1980 West Virginia is 48-38-1 ATS as a road underdog but only 5-9 ATS since 2012, the year the program joined the Big XII. West Virginia has just two outright road underdog wins in conference play since joining the Big XII. West Virginia has gone 3-4 ATS with one S/U upset (at home) as an underdog of 17 or more points since 2012. In four seasons at Troy Neal Brown posted a 27-21-3 ATS record going 9-3-2 ATS as an underdog and 17-6-2 ATS in road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Monty Andrews


MONEY MARTINEZ

Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez is inching closer to a return. Martinez has missed the Cornhuskers' previous two games with a left knee injury suffered against Northwestern but told reporters Tuesday that he "expects to go" this weekend versus the Purdue Boilermakers.

Martinez will be looking to rebound from what has been a rough season, at least through the air. He has completed just 60.6 percent of his passes to date with seven touchdowns and five interceptions but has added 341 yards and three scores on the ground. Nebraska has lost both games in Martinez's absence.

The Boilermakers are dealing with major injury absences of their own on offense and, while Martinez is having an uneven season, the offense is averaging 31.8 points with him and 19 points without him. We like visiting Nebraska to cover as 3-point road chalk.


WORK FOR WHITLOW?

Now that he's shaken off the rust, JaTarvious Whitlow is no doubt ready to carry more of the load for the Auburn Tigers, but it won't happen right away.

Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is suggesting that Whitlow isn't quite at full strength yet, and will likely see limited action against the Ole Miss Rebels this weekend. Whitlow returned from left knee surgery last week and had three carries for eight yards out of the Wildcat in a loss to LSU. Expect to see a few more snaps for Whitlow, who has 553 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 113 carries for Auburn this season.

Even a little more Whitlow is a great thing for an Auburn offense that has scored 20 or fewer points in two of its past three games. With the Tigers’ running game strengthened and Ole Miss terrible versus the pass, we like the Over 37.5 points on Auburn’s team total.


JARREN’S JOB

The Miami Hurricanes' starting quarterback battle appears to have taken another turn. Jarren Williams took the first-team snaps during Tuesday's practice, suggesting he has the upper hand over N'Kosi Perry in the battle for the starting job against rival Florida State this Saturday.

Williams entered last week's game against Pittsburgh after Perry struggled and promptly led the Hurricanes on the game-winning drive. Williams started the first five games of the season before suffering a shoulder injury, resulting in Perry taking over the starting role and performing admirably in Williams' absence.

This ACC rivalry has all the makings of a close game. The Hurricanes pulled out a 28-27 win in last year's meeting, and all three of their true road games in 2019 have been decided by four points or fewer. We suggest taking the 1-6 margin of victory on either side, which is priced at Miami +375 and FU +350.


PERKINS PROBLEM

Virginia quarterback Bryce Perkins is hopeful of a return to action against host North Carolina Saturday. Perkins suffered a knee injury in last week's 28-21 loss to Louisville and was noticeably less than 100 percent by the end of the game.

Perkins told reporters his knee is feeling much better and is expecting to take the field this weekend. He struggled against the Cardinals (24 of 41, 233 yards, one TD, one INT) and has thrown just one touchdown pass over his previous three games. The senior signal-caller has added 119 rush attempts for 275 yards and five scores on the ground.

We have a hard time believing Perkins will be fully healthy by the weekend, and with North Carolina on quite a roll (3-1 ATS in the past four), the Tar Heels are looking like a strong cover play at -2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

Plenty of Under trends I am going to spell out for you right here, but perhaps the biggest factor in why I am playing the Under in this Sun Belt game between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State is the weather. It is not supposed to be pretty tonight in Boone, North Carolina tonight as there is rain expected and the temperatures are also expected to drop and drop in a hurry with blustery conditions developing as this game progresses.


I think the weather is going to contribute to an Under between the Eagles and the Mountaineers.


Georgia Southern has played 2 of their last 3 games Under the total, including their last road game which took a pair of overtimes to decide at South Alabama.


Appalachian State has seen the Under cash in each of their last 3 games, as they have allowed just 17 points to be scored on them in wins over U.L. Lafayette, U.L. Monroe and last weekend against South Alabama. The Mountaineers are also now Under in 5 of their last 6 conference games, and in 5 of their last 6 games contested in the month of October.


Last year's series meeting did land Over the total in a 34-14 win by Georgia Southern at home, but the previous 4 series meetings between the schools had all held Under the total.


With the rain playing a major factor tonight, look for this year's series meeting to revert back to the established Under trend.


Make it a 5-1 series Under trend as this one holds low.

3* GEORGIA SOUTHERN-APPALACHIAN STATE UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 31 '19, 9:00 AM in 32m
Tennis | A De Minaur vs Stefano Tsitsipas
Play on: A De Minaur +140 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on A De Minaur +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 31 '19, 8:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State
Play on: Georgia Southern +18½ -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Georgia Southern +18½ -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Oct 31 '19, 8:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-F | Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State
Play on: Georgia Southern +15½ -110 at Mirage

The College Football comp play is on Georgia Southern +15 At 8 Eastern. GA. Southern will look to control the clock with the run game here tonight and they have covered 15 of 21 off a win of 20 or more and 7 of 9 after allowing less than 15 yards passing. Appalachian St is undefeated and falls into a system we use that plays against undefeated teams in week 6 or later if they are favored between 7 and 20 points and are taking on a team that is off a win and has revenge with a win percentage between .400 and .860. Appalachian St win but GA. Southern gets the cover. For the College free pick. Take the 15 with GA. Southern. RV- GC Sports