Service Plays Sunday 11/3/19

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Dwayne Connors
Top-End

1000 UNIT

Sunday Night Dead Mortal Lock

Patriots

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Chuck OBrien
5th Ever 100 Dime NFL Play of my Career

Browns

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Rooster's Moves

November 3, 2019 - 55670931

03-Nov-2019: 462 Miami+3.5-115 (1%)
03-Nov-2019: 464 Pitt-1.5 (1%)

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Midwest NFL Handicapping

TAMPA +6.5
CAR -3
MIAMI +3
PHIL -5


TENN +10.5/KC +10
MIAMI +9/SEA +.5
KC +10/INDY +7
CLEV +2/NE +3
WASH-BUFF OVER 33/
TENN-CAR OVER 37


OVER CAR/TENN 43
UNDER DEN FIRST HALF 20


Prop
Lamar Jackson UNDER 216 PASSING YARDS

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Sean Michaels
Top-Rated
100 DIME
Double-Digit
Blowout of the Year
Buffalo

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Ultra Sports 11/3

Ravens
Panthers
Colts

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Bob Valentino
Top-Rated
100 DIME
Lead Pipe Lock

Interconference Game of the Year

Packers

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Rocksolidsportspicks
steelers -1

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Las Vegas Pipeline

100 Patriots

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Bow Knows Spreads

Bears +4.5

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SkyBluePicks

Chicago Bears +5

Tampa Bay Bucs +4.5

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MTI

4.5-Star Titans +3.5 over PANTHERS The Titans have a good defense, as their opponent has scored on only 26.8% of their drives, which is fourth-best in the league. They also have a decent running attack. The Panthers are off a humiliating performance in San Francisco. This activates a play-AGAINST system for the Panthers.

Home teams off a loss in which they were not getting a TD or more and allowed more than four yards per play are 0-27 ATS vs a team that has a third down conversion rate of less than 41.4%, has allowed an average of fewer than 24 ppg and has rushed the ball more than 15 times per game. The SDQL text is:

H and p:L and oS(100*3DM) / oS(3DA)<41.4 and oA(ooints)<24 and p:line<7 and po:YPPL>4 and oA(rushes)>15 and date>=20181025

The Panthers themselves are 0-8 ATS (-8.19 ppg) as a favorite off a loss when they are facing a team that has a third down conversion percentage of less than 40. Despite being the favorite in each game, Carolina has lost each of the last six straight up.

The Panthers are now 4-3 on the season and this activates a neat record-based system that indicates to play against 4-3 teams that are a significant home favorite off a significant ATS loss and are facing a team with a decent rushing game. Specifically, home FG-plus favorites that are 4-3 on the season, did not win 13-plus games the previous regular season, and are off a 3-plus point ATS loss are 0-22 ATS against a team that has averaged at least 75 rushing yards per game. The SDQL text is:

H and line<=-3 and wins = 4 and losses = 3 and PRSW<13 and p:ats margin<=-3 and oA(RY)>75 and season >= 1996

This one cashed for us last week, as the Texans qualified against the Raiders.

Lastly for Carolina, we see that they are 0-12 ATS as a favorite on grass when they are off a road game and they are facing a team that has average fewer than 32 passes per game and fewer than five yards per rush. The SDQL is:

team=Panthers and F and surface=grass and p:A and oA(passes)<32 and oA(YPRA)<5 and date>=20051200

The Titans have won and covered two straight. In their last game, a 27-23 victory over the Buccaneers, they had 73 rushing yards, 77 penalty yards and benefitted from a 4-1 takeaway margin. The Titans 9-0 ATS on the road off a home game after a game in which they had a takeaway margin of at least plus two, are 5-0 ATS recently as a dog on grass after a SU and ATS win, covering by an average of 13.0 ppg.

Finally, the Titans are a character-revealing 5-0 ATS (+11.80 ppg) as a dog on grass when they are playing a team with a better record. Their last qualifying game was week ten from last season when they beat the Patriots 34-10 getting 6.5 points.

We are grabbing the significant points.

MTis FORECAST: Titans 17 PANTHERS 16

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MTI

4.5-Star Redskins +9.5 over BILLS In their first five games of the season, when Jay Gruden was their head coach, the Redskins allowed: 32, 31, 31, 24, and 33 points. In their three games under Bill Callahan, Washington has allowed 16, 9 and 19 points respectively. We are grabbing the big number.

Buffalo is off a 31-13 home loss to the Eagles to drop them to 5-2 on the season. The Bills other loss was also at home, as they are 2-2 at home this season and 3-0 on the road. This activates an interesting system that has been perfect since 2008. Home favorites over a non-divisional opponent that won their last two road games are 0-23 ATS with more than three days rest when they are off a loss in which they had fewer than 475 yards of offense and allowed fewer than six passing TDs. The SDQL text is:

HF and NDIV and p:L and po:PTD<6 and p:TY<475 and tS(W@A,N=2)=2 and rest>3 and date>=20080000

In short, home favorite that have won on the road have been overrated by the linesmakers. This one has been active three times this season and we cashed every one of them. Fitting in perfectly here is the fact that the Bills are 0-7 ATS (-10.57 ppg) vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a game as a favorite and they won their last two road games.

The Bills have not recovered well after a loss like they had last week, going 0-12 ATS (-11.96 ppg) off a loss as a home favorite in which they allowed at least five third-down conversions.

In addition, Buffalo is 0-7 ATS (-8.29 ppg) as a favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they are off a double-digit loss in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average and 0-7 ATS (-15.00 ppg) when the total is at least five points lower than it was in their last game and they were a home favorite in their last game.

The Redskins have been able to hang within the number vs good defensive teams. Washington is a perfect 12-0 ATS (+8.83 ppg) as a dog vs a team that is forcing more than 5.9 punts per game.

Washington has not gone over their team total for three straight games, but this is actually a play-ON spot for them, as they are 7-0 ATS as a dog when they are off three consecutive games with a negative DPS.

The Bills are not worried at all about the Redskins scoring a lot of points here. They will orchestrate a battle of field position and wait for the Redskins to make a mistake on offense. In a game like this, 9.5 points is huge.

Since 2015, there has been only one other game in the NFL with an OU line of less than 37. The Jaguars were a 6.5 point favorite over the Redskins and the Jaguars won 16-13. We expect a similar score here.

MTis FORECAST: BILLS 16 Redskins 13

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MTI

4.5-Star Packers at Chargers UNDER 48.5 We have a THREE career-perfect, key-player indicators that point to the UNDER here. First of all, the Packers are 0-11 OU (-9.86 ppg) since Jamaal Williams was drafted in 2017 after a road game in which he didn't have a 20+ yard reception. The SDQL text is:

team=Packers and Jamaal Williams:longest reception<20 and p:COMP<30 and p:A and season >=2017

Second, the Packers signed Geronimo Allison in 2016 and since then Green Bay is 0-7 OU (-9.86 ppg) after a road win by more than a field goal in which he had fewer than two receptions. The SDQL text is:

team=Packers and Geronimo Allison:receptions<3 and p:AW and p:margin>3 and season >=2016

Lastly, the Chargers signed Austin Ekeler as an undrafted free agent in 2017. Since then, the Chargers are 0-12 OU off a road game in which he rushed for fewer than 25 yards. The SDQL text is:

team=Chargers and Austin Ekeler:rushing yards<25 and p:A and season >= 2017

Green Bay also qualifies for a league-wide, multi-season system. It reads, Teams are 0-20 OU (-9.20 ppg) as a road favorite after a game as a road favorite in which a game in which they failed on at least one goal-to-go attempt. The SDQL is a straightforward:

AF and p:AF and p:GTGF>0 and date >= 20151200

Finally, the Chargers are 0-14 OU (-12.38 ppg) as a home dog off a game as a dog in which their passing yards to rushing yards ratio was at least 2.25 and they had a completion percentage of better than 58.5. The SDQL for this one is:

team=Chargers and HD and p and p:PY/p:RY>2.25 and p:CP>58.5

We make the UNDER the play.

MTis FORECAST: Packers 23 CHARGERS 16

[Buckeyefan80]

Lang 100 dimes on Tenn