Service Plays Sunday 12/1/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (CBB Play of the Day 10-4 last 14) - Yale -1.5

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Vegas Snergy

Arizona +4

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Jeff Ma

redskins
Texans

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GoodFella

2* Two Team money-line parlay (-140)
Ravens money-line to Panthers money-line

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Warren Sharp Totals
473 New England Patriots first half Over 22.5 (0.75 units)
Jimmy Garoppolo under 244.5 passing yards risking 0.5 units

[philinnyc]

Big Al

division total of year

Colts/Titans Over

This is wrong. Big Al's division total of the year is on the OVER on Steelers/Browns

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CleInsiderSports

NFL
Cindy +3
Philly -10.5
Ari +3

NBA
Knicks +7.5

NCAABB
Montana +10

NHL
Canucks ML -130

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Tony Bruno -

Ravens , packers , eagles & chiefs

[citybeat]

Dwayne Bryant

• STRONGEST NFL PLAY OF THE SEASON
  Game: (459) Philadelphia Eagles at (460) Miami Dolphins
  Date/Time: Dec 1 2019 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Philadelphia Eagles -10.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  1 PM ET -- NFL
  
  459 Philadelphia Eagles
  460 Miami Dolphins
  
  PLAY = #459 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -10 (-110)
  
  BET SIZE = 5%
  
  5% play at -11 or less
  4% play at -11.5 to -12.5
  3% play at -13 to -13.5
  No play at worse than -13.5
  
  PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean bet all the money you have. It also does NOT mean bet money you don't have. It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one. BE SMART! BET SMART!
  
  Very uncharacteristic for me to lay more than a TD in the NFL, especially on the road. But, it's the obvious plays that have been winning in the NFL over the last few years.
  
  Philly has been decimated by injuries. Early in the season it was the defense (particularly the secondary) that was ravaged with injuries. Lately, it's been the offensive side of the ball. But, the Birds will get back receivers Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor & tackle Lane Johnson for this game.
  
  The Eagles have lost two straight. Both were at home, to the Patriots and Seahawks. The aforementioned injuries played a factor. But with the Eagles getting healthier & coming off back-to-back losses, Miami is the perfect opponent to take their frustrations out on.
  
  The Eagles are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS under head coach Doug Pederson when coming off exactly two losses, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since the start of last season. The Eagles averaged 31 points and a 12.25-point victory margin in those four games. They won and covered all three on the road in that role, winning by scores of 34-13, 34-27 (as a dog at Green Bay in Week 4), and 31-13 at Buffalo in Week 8 (a 5% Winner for us).
  
  Miami has been a punching bag for good teams all season. In fact, Miami is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS versus teams whose regular season win line was greater than 8 (like the Eagles). The average score in those six games was Opponent 38.5, Miami 10.7. The only cover was a 27-14 loss as a 14-point dog at Pittsburgh and their backup QB.
  
  According to Football Outsiders, Miami owns the NFL's worst offensive line, while the Eagles own the league's #3 defensive line. That insane mismatch is going to be the difference in this game. When the Eagles get a decent lead and Miami has to throw (and the Eagles know they're going to throw), this should get U-G-L-Y.
  
  The Eagles, despite all the injuries and struggles, can tie Dallas for first place in the NFC East (or is it "Least"?) with a win here. And they know they have an easier remaining schedule than the Cowboys. Expect the Eagles to once again get up off the mat and deliver a knockout punch in this one. I'm calling it Eagles 34, Dolphins 10.
  
  PLAY PHILADELPHIA.
  

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Platinum Sports Investing

Bet to WIN .5%
Denver +3.5 - Why, I know some of you are going to be like...what the hell Tod, they stink. Yes they are not great but there is a big mismatch here with the Denver Rush attach vs a soft LA Rush defense. Denver doesn't win but before last week, they had covered 3 straight. As it turns out the Bills are pretty damn good on defense as the cowboys found out on Thanksgiving. The line is ideal and Denver fits a model with a consistent 62% covers so I'm not backing down despite our recent awful results. I know in my heart that 5 years of 60% + in the NFL is worth believing in so we are playing this.

Giants +6.5 - Even more of an UGH than the Denver play I'm sure. However, Green bay can't stop the run. At all. This should set up for a nice game for Barkley which will also open up play action for Jones. Now, the bad news is that the Giants can't stop the pass. They're bad at it. 29th in the league. However, the amount of sharp hits on the Giants, combined with their likely ability to eat clock means I'm sitcking to my guns in another historical 60% cover situation.

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From Northcoast group of handicappers:

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Hot Shot Sports

NBA
3* #525/526 Washington/LA Clippers OVER 238

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This is wrong. Big Al's division total of the year is on the OVER on Steelers/Browns

Thanks for the correction

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Youngstown Connection

Date: Sunday December 1, 2019

NFL Play #1

#451 Green Bay -6 1PM Eastern

Line from Wagerweb

Line as of 1150PM Eastern 11/30/19

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Midwest NFL Handicapping

PHIL -10.5
TENN -1
PITT +3 (Buy Hook)
CINCI +3
NE -2.5 (Buy Hook)
SEA ML


KC -5/UNDER 49.5
GB -.5/CAR -4.5
BALT +1.5/NE +3
INDY +7/CINCI +9
ARIZ +8.5/OAK +16.5
PITT +8/CAR -4.5


Over/Under
INDY/TENN OVER 42
KC/OAK UNDER 49.5
NE/HOU Over 46


Prop
Zach Ertz OVER 6 Rec

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (1st NFL 5* This Year)

Houston