Saturday 1-4-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and that means that bettors get to spend their usual amount of time handicapping NFL during the week, but narrowing down the research to just four games. That's quite critical in itself, but at the same time, just because it's the playoffs should you need to force a bet. Yes, you've got more time to dig into games, but if you don't find anything, you shouldn't be betting full units on plays you aren't fully comfortable with. Remember, if these matchups were held during a regular Sunday slate during the year, you might simply pass and move on to the next game. An important concept to keep in mind this time of year.

Nobody wants to read about how to pass on games in the sports betting market though, so let's see if we can find some significant angles for the games this weekend. The two AFC Wild Card games are up first, so that's where I'll begin.

Buffalo at Houston (4:35 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: Buffalo +2.5

A couple things to note off the top here, and that is, you probably want to buy this up to +3 for the best of the number, and with the juice currently sitting on the Houston side of things, it's not all that expensive. Secondly, thinking about the money-line (ML) with Buffalo is worth a look, but being safe is probably the better option for multiple reasons. Eventually this Bills run of not having won a playoff game since 1995 will be halted, and there is probably no better time then the present to do so.

However, I say taking the points is the better option because of one thing that speaks for backing Buffalo, but somewhat against taking the ML without some points already in your pocket. Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.

In this 12-team football tournament known as the NFL Playoffs, in the past five years, the team that's got the worst opponent 3rd down conversion percentage entering the playoffs – ie the defense can't get off the field – is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. That's the role the Houston Texans find themselves in this season with an absurd opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 48.51. Basically every other 3rd down gets converted by Houston opponents, and if you give a Bills offense that prefers to sustain (and capitalize) on long drives, a much better chance to do so, the Bills defense will make sure things look bleak for you the rest of the way.

The problem with that stat suggesting a ML play is the fact that the straight up (SU) record by these teams is actually 4-1 SU in these five games. That's a lot of narrow wins by home favorites in this spot, as their suspect 3rd down defense will always leave the backdoor cover open at worst, or forces said team to be playing uphill for the majority of the game and squeaking by with a late score.

Last year it was the Dallas Cowboys in this spot, and as -2.5 home favorites – the identical role Houston is currently in – a 24-22 SU win by Dallas was good enough to advance but not good enough for their backers. The 2017 postseason saw a similar story with the Saints winning SU but losing ATS by the hook in a five-point win over Carolina, while the 2015 Steelers pushed as small road favorites, and the 2014 Cowboys couldn't beat the Lions by enough margin.

This game landing on two points or less in a Houston win isn't the most likeliest of options, so I can understand a ML play on Buffalo only if you like the Bills, but a lot of funky things can happen in the playoffs and you can never have too many points because of it.

Buffalo's defense should be able to contain a Texans offense that runs quite hot and cold, and with the banged up playmaker bodies they have right now, asking them to be on the hotter side of that equation is tough. If Josh Allen wants to continue to take steps forward in his growth and development as a player, winning a playoff game now would be just that.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as the worst 3rd down team on offense – convert just 35.85% of their 3rd downs – but to do that and still be a 10-win team is impressive. It means that the defense keeps Buffalo in games no matter what, and against a Houston defense that gives up what they do on the “money down” the Bills offense should be able to get things running rather smoothly quite early.

Buffalo might end up being a rather 'popular' dog this weekend, but I'm more then fine with that being the case with these two teams involved.


Tennessee at New England (8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: New England Team Total Over 24.5

Tennessee sounds like they could be another underdog that becomes a popular choice, as the belief in New England continuing to reign over the AFC might be at an all time low. And really, it probably deserves to be given what the Patriots have put out their on the field since about November 1st. The schedule got tougher and better teams – teams with winning records – exposed New England.

Yet, while I would side with the overall idea that the Patriots reign atop this conference is over this year, I'm not so sure this is the game that we will see it happen. This year's New England team has the look of an aging champion who knows time is short and they know they'll likely fall but they won't go down without a fight. A home playoff game against a Titans team that's got a QB that Bill Belichick knows really well, is one of those “last stand” moments for the Patriots as those aging champions.

A glimpse into what was is all this Patriots team can provide their fans this year, and at home against Tennessee I believe that's the Patriots team we see. Because what do we see next from those aging champions? The youthful, upcoming alpha puts a beating on them as the torch doesn't get passed, but taken. Doesn't that sound like what may happen in Kansas City next week if New England wins this one at home?

If the Patriots are the ones who stand up and look like the dominant Pats of old here, getting 25 or more points should be attainable. In games against teams that made the playoffs this season, Tennessee gave up 27 points per game in the four games that mattered (excluding Week 17 vs Houston).

And if I'm wrong, and this is indeed the spot that the Patriots do fall, I doubt they go out with a whimper on their own field. As I touched on earlier, Belichick's got plenty of past game plans for facing Ryan Tannehill, and has got a good idea for what should likely work. Flip that knowledge into an early turnover or two, and the Patriots put up points.

Finally, as I touched on in a piece a few weeks ago when Buffalo was visiting New England in Week 16, you “don't tiptoe into Foxboro” if you expect to win, and a Titans win is going to have to likely come because Tennessee needs 28+ points to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's AFC Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5, 44), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Texans just won their fourth AFC South title under Bill O’Brien, but he was being heavily criticized as recently as last month before his team closed out with wins in four of five before tanking their meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee. If Houston fails to hold serve here, it would fall to 1-4 in playoff games under O’Brien, having advanced past “Wild Card” Weekend only once. The Texans handled a Raiders team forced to start current XFL first-rounder Connor Cook at QB in 2016 before suffering a 34-16 loss at the Patriots.

Houston (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) lost to division rival Indianapolis 21-7 last year and fell 30-0 against the Chiefs back in ’15. To say there’s pressure on O’Brien to win this game is an understatement.

The same can be said about Deshaun Watson, once dubbed Michael Jordan by Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, his college coach. He’s a decided improvement on Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, the other Texans quarterbacks who have started under O’Brien. He’s better than Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, the other two quarterbacks who won playoff games under Gary Kubiak and have therefore done something Watson has yet to. The third-year quarterback is just 0-1 but accounted for a single touchdown in a duel against Andrew Luck, throwing an interception and completing just 29 of 49 passes in an awful home loss where Houston failed to score until the fourth quarter of a game it trailed 21-0 at the break.

O’Brien and Watson are tied together in the hot seat. They’re in a situation where disappointing the home base again as they managed to last year could lead to early boos and ultimately mitigate the edge the Texans are supposed to have in welcoming the Bills into town. While O’Brien, also the team’s general manager, has improved the talent level, he’s ramped up expectations. Conservative play-calling and questionable in-game decisions have tried fans’ patience. Watson remains in their good graces, but he’s turned the ball over more this season and didn’t take a decided step forward. This is a big day for him.

Buffalo (10-6, 9-6-1) isn’t under the same type of burden. Reaching the playoffs for the second time in his three seasons makes Sean McDermott the most successful head coach since Wade Phillips was let go in ’99, and he’s indeed the winningest coach Buffalo has had of the 10 (head and interim) that have served at the helm for the team this century. Buffalo hasn’t won a playoff game since 1995. Josh Allen will be making his first playoff start and is hoping to become the first Bills quarterback to throw a touchdown in the postseason since Doug Flutie did in a game he started against Dan Marino on Jan. 2, 1999. Yes, it’s been that long.

The Bills fell at Jacksonville 10-3 a couple of years ago and have to fear a similar ending considering that points have been hard to come by in their toughest contests. Second-year QB Josh Allen will be making his first career postseason start but went just 1-4 against playoff teams this season. Buffalo averaged 14.2 points in those games. Although veteran Frank Gore is in the mix, the Bills don’t have a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball to lean on as they hit the road. Leading rusher Devin Singletary is a rookie. Top receiver John Brown reached an NFC Championship game with Arizona in ’15 and hasn’t been back since.

Although the Texans’ defense has been vulnerable most of the season and has been taken advantage of in the red zone, the return of J.J Watt has the unit encouraged that it can perform their best when it matters most. Houston ranked 28th in total defense but gave up only four yards per rush as opposed to 5.34 without Watt, who obviously also makes the team’s pass rush all the more formidable in coming back from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27.

Allen has props of 219.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards available at Caesars. My expectation is that we’ll see him surpass the rushing prop because he’s certainly capable of putting up a big gainer or two on a scramble and often calls his own number on designed runs.

Buffalo would be favored at home given the spread in this contest, which is a nod to its superior defense. The Bills ranked third in yards allowed and gave up just 16.2 points per game. The Texans were 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite while Buffalo has yet to not cover a rod game this season (6-0-2 ATS), winning six of their eight outright. Watson threw for 26 touchdowns and 3,852 yards, while DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,165 receiving yards and seven touchdown passes. A prop on Hopkins going over 72.5 receiving yards is also attractive, as are any TD props involving tight end Jordan Akins.

Houston has won four of the last five meetings against the Bills, falling in Buffalo in 2015 but owning home victories in ’12, ’14 and most recently, last season. The Texans won 20-13 on Oct. 14, 2018, pulling away on a Jonathan Joseph pick-six of embattled former backup Nathan Peterman, who was in for Allen in the final quarter. Buffalo managed just 12 first downs and 229 total yards. Watson threw for just 177 yards and was picked off twice, but did hook up with Hopkins for a score.

The individual matchup between Hopkins and star Bills corner Tre’Davious White, a first-team All-Pro, should be this game’s most important. Houston’s x-factor will likely be RB Carlos Hyde, who will be tasked with keeping Watson and the offense in manageable passing situations as the workhorse. He topped the 100-yard mark in the big win in Tennessee in Week 15 that ultimately helped the Texans claim the division and will be key in keeping the Buffalo defense from being overly aggressive.

Wrapping up the AFC South entering Week 17 and being locked into the No. 4 seed allowed the Texans to rest starters last season, so they’re well-rested. While Watt is certain to play, O’Brien wasn’t as sure he’d have the services of No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who really makes the Texans offense far more dynamic when he’s been able to play. ESPN Stats & Info reports Houston’s QBR with him in the lineup is 75.2 with him and 59.8 without him while the team’s third-down conversion rate is 51.9 percent when he’s out there and way down at 32.9 when he’s been unavailable. Fuller has dealt with hamstring issues and now a groin injury that has him listed as a game-time decision.

Corners Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are questionable but should play. The Bills list DE Shaq Lawson, WR/KR Andre Roberts, RT Ty Nsekhe and CB Levi Wallace as questionable.

The ‘under’ went 12-4 in Bills games this season and favored the low side (9-7) in Houston games. For all “Total Talk” on Saturday’s AFC Wild Card games, read Chris David’s piece click here.


Tennessee at New England (-5, 44.5), 8:15 pm ET, CBS

A pair of Bill Belichick’s proteges may ultimately wind up teaming to end the Tom Brady era in New England with a thud few could’ve seen coming.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was one of Brady’s favorite teammates and won three Super Bowls with the Patriots over an eight-year span as a player before going into coaching upon his retirement a decade ago, will bring a team that has won five of their last seven games into Foxboro for a “Wild Card Weekend” date Belichick wanted no part of.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning coach just saw his Patriots fall to his most recent defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who guided Miami to a stunning 27-24 upset at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. The talent disparity between both rosters dictated that the game should’ve never been close, yet the Dolphins led for most of Sunday afternoon before Tom Brady led a late rally that Ryan Fitzpatrick erased with one final flourish.

Instead of getting to rest up their ailing bodies while watching the Chiefs welcome in the scary-looking Titans, the Patriots fumbled away the AFC’s second seed and the bye that went along with it and will have to suit up against Tennessee to try and avoid elimination. A defense that had barely allowed 13 points per game suddenly looks vulnerable too since Miami receiver DeVante Parker dominated Stephon Gilmore, arguably the NFL’s top corner, to help seal New England’s demise.

The Titans not only have their passing game clicking behind Ryan Tannehill, who has teamed with rookie A.J. Brown to terrorize defenses over the past few weeks, they also can lean on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who came back after taking a week off to rest a hamstring injury and ran for 211 yards and three scores in a dominant Week 17 win in Houston. The Texans didn’t play starters last week, but the Titans still answered the bell and come in looking sound on both sides of the ball in a must-win game. Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL in 6.1 yards per play (6.1). Tannehill led the league averaging 9.59 yards per pass attempt and led the Titans to a 30.4 scoring average in his starts.

Beyond the fact that Vrabel played 17 playoff games under Belichick’s watch, giving him great insight to what he’s up against here, he’s also won the only meeting against his mentor as a head coach. The Patriots had won seven straight matchups with Tennessee prior to a 34-10 rout in Nashville on Nov. 11, 2018. Brady threw for 254 yards but failed to throw for a touchdown, while Henry ran for two scores and combined with backup Dion Lewis, a former Patriot, to run for 115 yards. Davis, who had a quiet injury-plagued ’19 regular season, caught seven passes for 125 yards. He’s healthy again.

Top receiver Julian Edelman finished with nine catches for 104 yards in that loss but has been limited to just 10 receptions over the past three weeks and has appeared hampered by a sore knee. There are also physical limitations to worry about as far as Brady is concerned. Although he’s ignored questions about what looks to be pretty obvious elbow discomfort, Brady has been noticeably flapping his arm and jogging in place to stay loose on the sideline.

Midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu hasn’t had the impact the team expected and rookies N’Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers are about to learn that playoff football ramps up the intensity to another level. New England scored over 30 points only once over its last nine games, though it did average 27.3 over its past three games.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards in his 20th season but threw for just one 300-yard game since mid-October. He threw for one or fewer touchdowns in half his games. Brady’s completion percentage (60.8%) was its lowest since ’13 and his passer rating ranked 27th in the regular season (88.0), its lowest since he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the ‘08 opener. I’d back the ‘under’ on a passing yards (257.5) prop featuring the legend.

Despite the fact most bettors are likely to tie their fortunes to Brady’s right arm for at least one last time in a home playoff game that might his last as a Patriot, oddsmakers didn’t even set the opening line at six or more points in the matchup against the No. 6 seed. The Westgate Superbook installed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite, but that figure was bet down to 4.5 points before climbing back up.

Tannehill is 0-6 in his career at Gillette Stadium, playing victim in New England’s dominance over the Dolphins, so it’s ironic that a Miami win made Foxborough the setting for his first career playoff start instead of Kansas City. While Patrick Mahomes is still feeling his way out through this playoff thing, the 42-year-old Brady will be making his 41st postseason start. Opposing Vrabel in his first playoff game as head coach is Belichick, who is 31-11 in his career (22-19-1 ATS).

Tennessee topped 400 yards six times this season for the first time since 1991. They finished with 5,805 yards of net offense, fourth-highest in team history. Most of New England’s injury-related question marks entering this game lie on the defensive end with CB Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, safety Terrance Brooks and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ja’Whuan Bentley all listed as ‘questionable.’ Edelman will also don that tag but should play. The Titans list WR Adam Humphries as out but will have tackle Adoree Jackson and tackle Jack Conklin in the mix. Backup WRs Kalif Raymond and Cody Hollister, as is safety Dane Cruikshank due to illness.

Road teams are 8-0 against the spread over the past two seasons on “Wild Card Weekend,” winning outright five times. Be aware that the forecast calls for a wet, windy night. Temperatures should reside in the 40s and scattered showers are expected throughout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB


Saturday, January 4

Tennessee adds 18-year old PG Vescovi from Uruguay today; he is expected to play about half the game. LSU won three of last four games with the Vols, but lost last two visits to Knoxville, by 16-23 points. Tigers lost two of last three games; they’re 0-2 in road games, losing by hoop at both VCU/USC. LSU is experience team #327 that is 8-4 vs schedule #169; they’re making 59.3% of their 2’s (#2). Tennessee lost three of its last four games after a 7-1 start; they’re experience team #180 that is 8-4 vs schedule #121- they have #20 eFG% defense.

Oklahoma State lost three of last four games with Texas Tech, losing last two visits to Lubbock, by 4-5 points. Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games. Tech won its last four games, is experience team #294 that is 9-3 vs schedule #298; Red Raiders lost three of four top 100 games, but the win is over Louisville; Tech forces turnovers 23% of time (#42). Oklahoma State lost three of its last five games after a 7-0 start; Cowboys are experience team #92 that is 9-3 vs schedule #51- they’re 4-3 in top 100 games, 2-0 in true road games (Charleston/Houston).

Home side won last six Maryland-Indiana games; Hoosiers lost their last three trips here, by 2-3-3 points. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Indiana is #281 experience team that is 11-2 vs schedule #160, losing by 20 at Wisconsin (only true road game), by 7 at home to Arkansas; they’re #2 team in country at getting to foul line, are top 20 rebounding team. Maryland lost two of last three games after a 10-0 start; they’re experience team #298 that is 11-2 vs schedule #48- Terrapins won six of eight top 100 games.

Louisville-Florida State split their last six meetings; teams split couple games in Yum! Center. Seminoles won their last five games; they’re experience team #275 that is 12-2 vs schedule #91, with losses at Pitt/Indiana- they have a road win at Florida. FSU is tallest team in country; they force turnovers 26.5% of time (#4). Louisville split its last four games after a 9-0 start; Cardinals are experience team #21 that is 11-2 vs schedule #163, losing last game to Kentucky in OT. Louisville has #5 eFG% defense without forcing TO’s; opponents shoot 41.2% inside arc (#10).

Villanova won four of its last five games with Marquette, but lost two of last three visits to Milwaukee, losing by point here LY. Villanova won its last six games, beating Kansas/Xavier in last two; they’re experience team #331 that is 10-2 vs schedule #55, losing their only true road game outside of Philly by 25 at Ohio State. Wildcats are shooting 35.5% on arc (#84), getting 36.5% of their points on arc (#60). Marquette won five of last six games, losing at Creighton by 17 last game; they’re experience team #53 that is 10-3 vs schedule #65.

Duke-Miami split their last ten meetings; Blue Devils won last two, by 8-30 points. Duke lost three of last five visits to South Beach. Duke won its last six games, winning first two ACC tilts, by 14-39 points; they’re experience team #338 that is 12-1 vs schedule #87, with only loss at home to SF Austin- they’ve got true road wins at Michigan St/Va Tech. Miami won its last five games, winning last game in OT at Clemson; Hurricanes are experience team #163 that is 9-3 vs schedule #42- they’re making 38.9% of their 3’s (#15).

Kansas won six of last seven games with West Virginia, beating WVU in last two Big X tourneys; Mountaineers are 0-7 in Lawrence in Big X play (2-4-1 ATS). West Virginia won its last four games, is experience team #296 that is 11-1 vs schedule #46; Mountaineers’ only loss was by hoop at St John’s. WVU beat Ohio State in its last game; they have #2 eFG% defense in country. Kansas won nine of last ten games; they’re experience team #232 that is 9-2 vs schedule #6, with losses to Duke/Villanova by total of 3 points. Kansas has #3 eFG% inn country.

Wichita State won its last six games, winning AAC opener Wednesday, now they venture into Power 5 territory. Shockers are experience team #335 that is 12-1 vs schedule #270, with only loss by 12 to West Virginia on a neutral floor, Wichita’s only loss in four top 100 games- they force turnovers 22.8% of time (#44). Ole Miss won its last four games, all vs stiffs; they’re experience team #261 that is 9-3 vs schedule #337, losing three of four top 100 games, with only win by hoop over Penn State. Rebels lost their only true road game, by 21 at Memphis.

Oregon won 12 of last 13 games with Utah, winning last four tips to SLC; they beat Utes in four of last five Pac-12 tourneys. Ducks won five of last six games but lost Pac-12 opener at Colorado Thursday; they’re experience team #197 that is 11-3 vs schedule #27, 4-3 vs top 100 teams. Oregon is making 40.1% of its 3’s (#8); they split two true road games, winning at Michigan i OT. Utah won six of its last seven games; they’re experience team #351 that is 10-3 vs schedule #132, winning five of six top 100 games, including a win over Kentucky.

Wofford beat NC-Greensboro three times LY, by 29-30-2 points, after losing previous five games in series; these teams met in last three SoCon tourneys. UNCG won eight of its last nine games, with only loss at buzzer to NC State; Spartans are experience team #145 that is 10-3 vs schedule #279, winning three of four true road games (lost by 12 at Kansas). Wofford lost SoCon opener by point at ETSU Wednesday; Terriers are experience team #71 that is 6-6 vs schedule #97, losing four of five top 100 games, but the one win was over North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

Baylor won seven of last eight games with Texas, winning last three series games played here, by 1-9-15 points. Longhorns won six of last seven games; they’re experience team #268 that is 10-2 vs schedule #250, with losses by 16-22 points to Georgetown/Providence- their best win was by 4 at Purdue. Texas forces turnovers 23% of time (#39). Baylor won its last nine games since its 67-64 loss to Washington in Alaska; Bears are experience team #126 that is 10-1 vs schedule #228- they’ve got three top 100 wins, are forcing turnovers 24% of time (#24).

Arizona hasn’t played in two weeks; they lost three of last four games, after a 9-0 start; Wildcats are experience team #291 that is 10-3 vs schedule #125, splitting six top 100 games. Wildcats got swept by Arizona State LY, after winning previous five series games; ASU lost eight of its last nine tips to Tempe, winning 72-64 here LY. Sun Devils lost two of last three games, are 9-4 vs schedule #90; they’re experience team #193 that lost four of six top 100 games, with best wins over Georgia/St John’s. ASU is forcing turnovers 23% of time (#40).

San Diego State lost its last two games with Utah State, after winning 11 in a row over the Aggies; Aztecs won three of last four trips to Logan, losing 70-54 here LY. SD State is experience team #72 that is 12-0 vs schedule #224, winning first three MW games, by 22-2-9 points; they’ve got true road wins, at BYU/Colorado State. Aztecs have #7 eFG% in country. Utah State is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 7-0 start; they lost by 17 at UNLV Wednesday. Aggies are experience team #136 that is 11-3 vs schedule #186, 2-3 vs top 100 teams (beat LSU/Florida).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

501MEMPHIS -502 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 40-75 ATS (-42.5 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1996.

503TORONTO -504 BROOKLYN
TORONTO is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less in the last 3 seasons.

505UTAH -506 ORLANDO
ORLANDO is 174-223 ATS (-71.3 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game since 1996.

509INDIANA -510 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.

511BOSTON -512 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after a loss by 6 points or less in the current season.

513DENVER -514 WASHINGTON
DENVER is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 120 points or more in the last 3 seasons.

515CHARLOTTE -516 DALLAS
DALLAS are 14-2 ATS (11.8 Units) after playing a home game in the current season.

517SAN ANTONIO -518 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game in the current season.

519DETROIT -520 GOLDEN STATE
DETROIT is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

521NEW ORLEANS -522 SACRAMENTO
NEW ORLEANS are 77-46 ATS (26.4 Units) in road games in January games since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 4

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MEMPHIS (13 - 22) at LA CLIPPERS (25 - 11) - 1/4/2020, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 5-3 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 6-3 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (23 - 12) at BROOKLYN (16 - 17) - 1/4/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 5-4 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-1 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (22 - 12) at ORLANDO (15 - 19) - 1/4/2020, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-1 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (19 - 15) at CLEVELAND (10 - 24) - 1/4/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 92-122 ATS (-42.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in January games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 27-42 ATS (-19.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 54-73 ATS (-26.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 37-50 ATS (-18.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (22 - 13) at ATLANTA (7 - 27) - 1/4/2020, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 6-4 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 9-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON (23 - 8) at CHICAGO (13 - 22) - 1/4/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (24 - 10) at WASHINGTON (10 - 23) - 1/4/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (14 - 23) at DALLAS (22 - 12) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 55-87 ATS (-40.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 193-244 ATS (-75.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
CHARLOTTE is 37-54 ATS (-22.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 66-48 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (14 - 19) at MILWAUKEE (31 - 5) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 78-52 ATS (+20.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 62-43 ATS (+14.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 68-47 ATS (+16.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 59-41 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 368-307 ATS (+30.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 226-163 ATS (+46.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 289-344 ATS (-89.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 79-124 ATS (-57.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 3-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (12 - 23) at GOLDEN STATE (9 - 27) - 1/4/2020, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-0 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 23) at SACRAMENTO (13 - 22) - 1/4/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 4

Grizzlies-Clippers
Memphis lost five of its last eight games; they’e 4-1-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog. Five of their last six games went over. Clippers won thee of their last four games; they’re 5-2 ATS in last seven home games. Over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

Grizzlies lost six of last seven games with the Clippers (2-5 ATS); they’re 1-3 ATS in last four series games played here. Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Raptors-Nets
Toronto lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-5-1 ATS in last nine road games. Four of their last five road games went under. Brooklyn lost its last four games; they’re 4-6 ATS as a home favorite. Four of their last six games went over.

Raptors won nine of its last ten games with the Nets; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Brooklyn. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Jazz-Magic
Utah won nine of its last ten games; they’re 6-4 ATS as a road favorite. Over is 8-5 in their last 13 games. Orlando won four of its last six games; they’re 2-4-1 ATS as a home underdog. Under is 5-1 in their last six home games.

Jazz won six of last seven games with Orlando; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Magic Kingdom. Three of last four series games went under.

Thunder–Cavaliers
Oklahoma City won eight of its last nine games; they covered seven of last eight road games. OKC’s last five games went under the total. Cleveland lost three of its last four games; they covered four of last five home games. Under is 4-2 in their last six home games.

Thunder won four of last five games wth the Cavaliers; they’re 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Cleveland. Under is 6-4 in last ten series games.

Pacers-Hawks
Indiana lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-4 ATS n last six road games. Pacers’ last five games all went over. Atlanta lost 11 of its last 12 games; they’re 8-6 ATS as a home underdog. Hawks’ last four games stayed under the total.

Pacers won their last seven games with the Hawks; they covered four of their last five visits to Indiana. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Celtics-Bulls
Boston won seven of its last eight games; they’re 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. Celtics’ last three games went under. Chicago lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-6 ATS as a home underdog. Under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Celtics won/covered eight of last ten games with the Bulls; they’re 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Chicago. Under is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Nuggets-Wizards
Denver won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re 4-5-1 ATS as a road favorite. Over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Washington lost four of its last five games; they’re 1-4-1 ATS in last six games as a home underdog. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.

Road team won five of last six Denver-Washington games; Nuggets are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Washington. Last five series games went under.

Hornets-Mavericks
Charlotte lost six of its last seven games; they’re 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games went over. Dallas split its last 12 games; they’re 1-3 ATS in last four games as a home favorite. Over is 6-4-1 in their last 11 home games.

Hornets lost three of last four games with the Mavericks; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Dallas. Under is 7-3 in last seven series games.

Spurs-Bucks
San Antonio split its last ten games; they’re 3-5 ATS as a road underdog. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Milwaukee won 25 of its last 27 games; they’re 8-3 ATS in last 11 home games. Bucks’ last four games went under.

Spurs lost four of last five games with the Bucks; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Milwaukee. Four of last five series games went over.

Pistons-Warriors
Detroit lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 0-4 ATS in last four road games. Five of their last six games went over. Golden State lost its last three games; they won/covered four of their last five home games. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.

Pistons lost seven of last ten games with Golden State; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to the Bay Area. Four of last six series games went over.

Pelicans-Kings
New Orleans won five of its last seven games; they covered five of their last six road games. Under is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Sacramento lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 1-7 ATS in last eight home games. Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Pelicans won four of last five games with the Kings; they’re 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Sacramento. Seven of last eight series games went over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, January 4

Trend Report

Memphis @ LA Clippers
Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Memphis
LA Clippers is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home

Toronto @ Brooklyn
Toronto
Toronto is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Brooklyn
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Utah @ Orlando
Utah
Utah is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Utah is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games at home

Oklahoma City @ Cleveland
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

Indiana @ Atlanta
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Denver @ Washington
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

Boston @ Chicago
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games when playing Boston

San Antonio @ Milwaukee
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Milwaukee is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games

Detroit @ Golden State
Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Golden State
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games at home

Charlotte @ Dallas
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Charlotte's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
Dallas is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Charlotte

New Orleans @ Sacramento
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing Sacramento
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Sacramento's last 8 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


BUDDING AT THE RIGHT TIME

The last time the Maple Leafs played the New York Islanders, they were in the middle of what would be a season-high six-game losing streak and were coached by Mike Babcock. Well, Babcock is out and the Leafs have gone 14-5 SU since the end of that losing streak and lead the league in scoring, putting up 4.06 goals per game.

The Buds have put up five or more goals in five of their last eight games and lead the league in scoring chances for and high-danger shooting percentage since mid-December. The Leafs could especially do some damage with the man advantage.

Under new coach Sheldon Keefe, Toronto has the best scoring powerplay at 36.8 percent while the Islanders sit in the middle of the league in penalty killing at 79 percent. We are taking the Leafs -1.5 as the Islanders have lost by more than a goal in six of their last eight defeats.


GOALS GALORE VS. RAGS

Saturday night pits the West’s best over the last five games against the team with the highest expected goals against since mid-December. The Rangers will continue their West Coast road trip — three games in five nights — as they take on the surging Canucks in Vancouver on Saturday night.

The Rangers have given up five goals or more in three of their last six thanks to giving up the second-most scoring chances since December 20. No team has given up more goals per game over its last 10 games (4.10) as only two other teams have a worse save percentage over that stretch.

With Vancouver averaging four goals a game since December 20, Saturday night’s game gives bettors a great opportunity to bet with a hot team versus one of the league’s most struggling. We are taking the Cancucks’ team total of 3.5 and smashing the Over.


FINISHING UP THE WEEKEND

After the final game of NFL Wild-Card weekend on Sunday, the sports action doesn’t stop as the Nashville Predators will play the second game of a back-to-back in California and take on the Anaheim Ducks at 10 p.m. ET. The Preds could be without their No. 2 scorer and second-most used player in defenseman Ryan Ellis who was knocked out of Wednesday’s Winter Classic by an elbow to the head.

Nashville has been weak defensively since returning from the break having allowed 15 goals in three games and having allowed five powerplay goals in eight chances since Boxing day. Not having Ellis is a huge loss as the blueliner was playing on the first penalty-kill unit.

The home team has won the last six matchups and Ducks goalie John Gibson has a 2.52 goals against at home compared to a 3.52 GAA on the road. We are backing the home team in what should be decent odds for the West’s No. 14 team. Take the Ducks ML.


GOALIE PROFILE: JONATHAN BERNIER, DETROIT RED WINGS

There aren’t a lot of nice things to say about the Detroit Red Wings this year as they sit in the league’s basement with 23 points in 41 games, but since coming back from the break, the Wings are 3-0 ATS thanks to two strong games from goalie Jonathan Bernier.

Bernier is 3-2 in his last five starts and is coming off a 2-0 shutout of the Sharks on Tuesday. The Wings’ goalie will face the league’s 9th lowest-scoring team in the Dallas Stars on Friday and should be big underdogs as Detroit has just one win in its last seven road games.

Look to take the Under 5.5 as Bernier is 0-3 O/U in his last three road games and Dallas is 2-7 O/U in its last seven games at home. The Wings at +1.5 is also paying +100.


INJURY UPDATE: F JEFF SKINNER, BUFFALO SABRES

Since forward Jeff Skinner hit the I.R three games ago, the Buffalo Sabres are 1-2 SU and will finish a three-game homestand versus the Florida Panthers on Saturday afternoon. Without their fourth-best goal scorer and second-line forward, the Sabres have put up just nine goals in their last four games.

The scoring struggles have also spread to the team’s powerplay as it is 0-for-11 since Christmas. Buffalo will look to get back to its average of 3.10 goals per game against Florida on Saturday afternoon. We like fading teams who are squeezing the stick too tight and will look to take the Under on Buffalo’s team total of 2.5.
The best teams to bet on this decade: Against the spread, money teams and Over/Under bets


HAT TRICK TRENDS

• Favorites have covered the Puck Line at just 29 percent since the break going 13-32. Home favorites have done slightly better than road favorites ATS as the less traveled teams went 9-20 (31%) ATS while road favs went 4-12 (25%) since Christmas.
• The Washington Capitals have the best out-of-conference record in the NHL. The Eastern Conference Capitals are 11-2-4 versus the West and will face the San Jose Sharks on Sunday who Washington has scored at least five times in all three of its last matchups.
• Empty-net goals are a big part of hitting Puck Lines. Losing a plus-money bet because a team can’t put it in the empty cage is heartbreaking. Over the course of the season, the Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, St. Louis Blues and Pittsburgh Penguins all have at least 10 empty-net goals. Conversely, the Edmonton Oilers (2) and Tampa Bay Lightning (3) are at the bottom of the league in this category.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1SAN JOSE -2 COLUMBUS
SAN JOSE is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games after allowing 2 goals or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

3EDMONTON -4 BOSTON
BOSTON is 39-41 ATS (-18.4 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances over the last 2 seasons.

5WINNIPEG -6 MINNESOTA
WINNIPEG is 8-1 ATS (11.3 Units) in road games against excellent power play teams- scoring on >17.5% of their chances in the current season.

7ST LOUIS -8 VEGAS
ST LOUIS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) when playing their 4th game in 7 days in the current season.

9COLORADO -10 NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY is 1-10 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games against good offensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the current season.

11TAMPA BAY -12 OTTAWA
OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (6.8 Units) in home games when playing their 4th game in 7 days in the current season.

13FLORIDA -14 BUFFALO
BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games in the current season.

15NY ISLANDERS -16 TORONTO
NY ISLANDERS are 18-3 ATS (17 Units) against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game in the current season.

17PITTSBURGH -18 MONTREAL
PITTSBURGH is 12-20 ATS (-18.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

19PHILADELPHIA -20 ARIZONA
PHILADELPHIA is 21-14 ATS (11.9 Units) in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances in the 2nd half of the year in the last 3 seasons.

21NY RANGERS -22 VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER is 31-25 ATS (17 Units) against excellent power play teams - scoring on > 19% of their chances over the last 2 seasons.

23NASHVILLE -24 LOS ANGELES
NASHVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, January 4

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SAN JOSE (18-21-0-3, 39 pts.) at COLUMBUS (19-14-0-8, 46 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 74-70 ATS (-19.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE is 4-12 ATS (+16.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
SAN JOSE is 20-29 ATS (-19.3 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBUS is 3-1 (+2.5 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
COLUMBUS is 3-1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.9 Units)

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EDMONTON (21-17-0-5, 47 pts.) at BOSTON (24-7-0-11, 59 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 1:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.8 Units)

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WINNIPEG (22-16-0-3, 47 pts.) at MINNESOTA (19-17-0-5, 43 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 2:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 10-3 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-1 ATS (+7.3 Units) on Saturday games this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
WINNIPEG is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game this season.
WINNIPEG is 14-4 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 ATS (-19.1 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-12 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-33 ATS (-22.7 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-40 ATS (+63.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 9-7 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 9-7-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.3 Units)

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ST LOUIS (26-10-0-6, 58 pts.) at VEGAS (23-15-0-6, 52 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 87-63 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 46-26 ATS (+11.6 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 53-32 ATS (+18.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 28-14 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 69-64 ATS (+1.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 4-10 ATS (-11.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-2 (+2.9 Units) against the spread versus VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 5-2-0 straight up against VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.0 Units)

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COLORADO (24-13-0-4, 52 pts.) at NEW JERSEY (15-19-0-6, 36 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 12-5 ATS (+17.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is 6 or more this season.
COLORADO is 6-1 ATS (+7.2 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 4-12 ATS (+18.0 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 3-2 (+1.1 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
COLORADO is 3-2-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.8 Units)

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TAMPA BAY (22-13-0-4, 48 pts.) at OTTAWA (16-20-0-5, 37 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-8 ATS (-10.4 Units) on Saturday games this season.
OTTAWA is 28-27 ATS (+69.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 11-7 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 10-8 ATS (+22.9 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
TAMPA BAY is 15-2 ATS (+11.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-5 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-6 (+3.2 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 6-4-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+5.4 Units)

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FLORIDA (21-14-0-5, 47 pts.) at BUFFALO (18-17-0-7, 43 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 305-291 ATS (+638.9 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
FLORIDA is 126-136 ATS (+298.4 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent since 1996.
BUFFALO is 13-30 ATS (+57.0 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 7-3 (+3.0 Units) against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 7-3-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

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NY ISLANDERS (25-11-0-3, 53 pts.) at TORONTO (23-14-0-5, 51 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY ISLANDERS are 25-14 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
NY ISLANDERS are 22-10 ATS (+11.3 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 30-16 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NY ISLANDERS are 99-109 ATS (+244.7 Units) in road games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game since 1996.
NY ISLANDERS are 10-4 ATS (+14.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 32-28 ATS (-9.6 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-10 ATS (-13.3 Units) in home games in January games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 24-27 ATS (-18.5 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 102-111 ATS (-52.9 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1996.
TORONTO is 160-159 ATS (-88.3 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-3-0 straight up against NY ISLANDERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

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PITTSBURGH (24-11-0-5, 53 pts.) at MONTREAL (18-17-0-6, 42 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 25-32 ATS (-21.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 15-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MONTREAL is 7-12 ATS (-6.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 6 or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-4 (+0.8 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-3-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.9 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (22-14-0-5, 49 pts.) at ARIZONA (23-16-0-4, 50 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 29-28 ATS (+58.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-10 ATS (-9.4 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.0 Units)

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NY RANGERS (19-17-0-4, 42 pts.) at VANCOUVER (22-15-0-4, 48 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 15-10 ATS (+29.0 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
NY RANGERS are 138-138 ATS (+300.6 Units) in road games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 253-258 ATS (-154.6 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
VANCOUVER is 406-391 ATS (-104.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY RANGERS is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 3-2-0 straight up against VANCOUVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.9 Units)

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NASHVILLE (18-15-0-6, 42 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (17-21-0-4, 38 pts.) - 1/4/2020, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NASHVILLE is 18-21 ATS (-13.2 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 4-9 ATS (-9.7 Units) on Saturday games this season.
NASHVILLE is 48-93 ATS (+150.1 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NASHVILLE is 18-22 ATS (-16.3 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 6-12 ATS (-14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NASHVILLE is 296-235 ATS (+25.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 172-179 ATS (-20.0 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 69-81 ATS (-47.5 Units) in home games in January games since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 216-274 ATS (-99.4 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 114-120 ATS (-64.1 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 132-141 ATS (-74.1 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 6-1 (+4.7 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 6-1-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, January 4

Trend Report

Edmonton @ Boston
Edmonton
Edmonton is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Boston
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Edmonton

San Jose @ Columbus
San Jose
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose's last 6 games on the road
Columbus
Columbus is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing San Jose

Florida @ Buffalo
Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games
Florida is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Winnipeg @ Minnesota
Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

St. Louis @ Vegas
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vegas
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vegas
Vegas
Vegas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas's last 5 games

Pittsburgh @ Montreal
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home

Colorado @ New Jersey
Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Ottawa
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing Ottawa
Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Ottawa's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Ottawa's last 7 games at home

NY Islanders @ Toronto
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Islanders's last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 12 games when playing at home against NY Islanders

Philadelphia @ Arizona
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

NY Rangers @ Vancouver
NY Rangers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Rangers's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Rangers's last 6 games on the road
Vancouver
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Nashville @ Los Angeles
Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Nashville's last 8 games
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Southern Miss +7 -106 at BMaker

Southern Miss +7
On Saturday January 4th we get the old "Battle of the Bell" matchup once again as the Southern Miss Golden Eagles 7-5 (6-6 ATS) take on the Tulane Green Wave 6-6 (8-4 ATS) in the 2020 Armed Forces Bowl. The Green Wave are -7 point favorites and the over/under has settled in at 56.5. This one kicks off at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth at 11:30 a.m. ET.
It wasn't a banner year for the Green Wave. They were hoping to challenge for the AAC title after a strong start to the 2019 schedule, but that just didn't materialize in 2019. They averaged 33PPG at the beginning of the season but the offense struggled down the stretch and they only managed 24PPG. Last game out Tulane lost 37-20 to SMU.
As for the Golden Eagles they did a great job on defense in 2019 limiting teams to 17PPG or less. They do especially well vs. the run. (Which we know Tulane will focus on, as its the best part of their offense. (11th in the nation) The Eagles are 14th in the country in run defense (111YPG). In their last game out the Eagles lost 34-17 to FAU.
My money is on the fact that this will be a closely contested game. These two teams are going to slow down the pace, run the ball and trade punches. That favors the Golden Eagles keeping the score close in my opinion.
Some trends to consider. Tulane are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Southern Miss, are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Southern Miss, and are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games this season. Head to head the Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings head to head.
I'm not sure why Tulane is a -7 point favorite in this one after dropping 5 of their last 6 matchups straight up. Tulane has dropped six consecutive meetings with Southern Miss and 9 of their last 10. Wrong team is favored here.
Take Southern Miss.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* FREE NCAAF ATS Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Tulane -7 -110 at Mirage

1* on Tulane -7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Jan 04 '20, 11:30 AM in 1h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Southern Miss
Play on: Tulane -7 -110 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Tulane -7 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Jan 04 '20, 2:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Villanova vs Marquette
Play on: Marquette -1 -108 at pinnacle

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Marquette -1)
I'll take my chances here with Marquette at home against No. 10 Villanova. The fact that the Golden Eagles are favored in this game really says it all. Not only are the Wildcats a Top 10 team, but Marquette just got annihilated at Creighton 92-75 in their last game. The betting public won't be able to resist themselves when it comes to backing Villanova as a dog.
Thing is, the Wildcats have not looked good in their two true road games this season. They got absolutely destroyed in an early game at Ohio State by a score of 76-51. They then had to hold on for a 78-66 win at St. Joseph's who is currently 3-10 on the season.
Marquette is going to lay some eggs on the road and they have a history under Wojciechowski of losing bad when they do lose. I expect a different looking team here at home, where the Golden Eagles are 7-0 this season. Marquette runs a ton of pick and roll offense with stark Markus Howard and Villanova is a mere 339th in pick and roll defense.
Wildcats are 1-7-1 ATS last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Give me the Golden Eagles -1!