Saturday 1-4-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Jan 04 '20, 4:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Blues vs Golden Knights
Play on: Golden Knights -135 at Bovada

Free Pick on Golden Knights

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Jan 04 '20, 5:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Oregon vs Utah
Play on: Oregon -4½ -112 at betonline

I successfully played against the Ducks on Thursday. Here's an excerpt from that play:
"... The Ducks are indeed a very strong team and they've been playing well. However, in my opinion, the same can be said of the Buffaloes. They've won four straight and covered the last two of those. Last time out, they tied a school record with 17 3-pointers. Seven players scored in double-digits, the first time thats happened in more than five years. Also, the Buffs dished out 26 assists, their most in years. Keep in mind that Colorado returned nearly everyone from last year's team. The same group, essentially, which beat the Ducks (again) here last season. The Buffs allow 58.9 ppg at home while the Ducks allow 71.5 ppg on the road. Playing in the thin air (altitude) gives the Buffaloes a big advantage. Note that Oregon has never won here at Boulder and that the Ducks will face the Utes on the road, on Saturday. That Colorado/Utah road trip is always tough, generally considered to be the most difficult in the conference. The Buffs are looking for respect and a win here will get it. Look for them to find their way into the top 25 after ...."
Sure enough, the Ducks got hammered at Colorado. However, as you'll see by the writeup, I acknowledged that they are indeed a very good team. Utah isn't quite as tough a team/venue as Colorado, in my opinion. At least not for the Ducks, as they've had a lot more success here over the years. Angry after the loss at Boulder, I expect Oregon to bounce back with a big effort here. Consider laying the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Jan 04 '20, 7:00 PM in 8h
NCAA-B | UCLA vs Washington State
Play on: UCLA PK -109 at GTBets

UCLA vs Washington State
7:00 PM EST, January 4, 2020
5-Star Best Bet on the UCLA Bruins
After losing three consecutive games the Bruins bounced back with a huge 66-64 road win at the Washington Huskies and covered the spread as 8.5-point underdogs. They will be carrying that positive momentum into this game against the WSU Cougars, who are coming off a disappointing 65-56 home defeat at the hands of the USC Trojans and failed to cover the spread by as 3.5-point underdogs.
WSU shot just 28% form the field in their loss to USC and will not fid the scoring any easier against UCLA.
A Few Slam Dunks· The Cougars are just 2-13 ATS in games played in January over the last two seasons.
· The Cougars are just 5-14 ATS when facing a conference opponent in games played over the last two seasons.
· The Cougars are 1-8 ATS after a game committing eight or less turnovers in games played over the last two seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Jan 04 '20, 7:08 PM in 8h
NHL | Lightning vs Senators
Play on: Senators +195 at pinnacle

1* Free Sharp Play on Senators +195

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pro Computer Gambler

Jan 04 '20, 8:15 PM in 9h
NFL | Titans vs Patriots
Play on: Titans +5½ -110 at Mirage

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: 3rd down % defense system: Play on teams allowing a significantly less 3rd down completion percentage than what their opponents that they've faced(season to date averages) are allowing: These teams are 131-74-12 ATS 63.9% in database history. (20200104, 'Texans'), (20200104, 'Titans')
BONUS SYSTEM: Since 1989, teams off of 3 or more straight games with zero turnovers are 73-35-4 67.6% ATS. -- Active on the Saints this week
The Titans are 0-21 ATS (-11.17 ppg) when they are off a win and they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game.The Vikings are 13-0 ATS (+11.27 ppg) as a dog when their opponent is off two double-digit wins and they are not off a double-digit win.The Bills are 11-30 OU (-4.74 ppg) since Nov 10, 2013 as a road dog.The Titans are 9-1 OU (8.55 ppg) since Oct 20, 2019.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Jan 04 '20, 8:35 PM in 10h
NBA | Pistons vs Warriors
Play on: Warriors +3½ -110 at YouWager

1* NBA Free Pick on Golden State Warriors +3½
I really like the spot and the value with Golden State as a small home dog against the Pistons. While the Warriors have lost 3 straight after rolling together a 4-game winning streak, the last two came on the road.
Warriors are 4-1 in their last 5 at home with the only loss coming to a really good Mavs team. Detroit should not be favored here. Pistons are down Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Blake Griffin and Markieff Morris.
They are also playing their 4th straight game on the road and have lost each of first 3 on their 6-game trip by 14 or more. Not to mention this is the first game of a back-to-back set with a much bigger game on deck Sunday against the Lakers.
Detroit is 5-16-1 ATS last 22 road games, 1-8 ATS last 9 games overall and 0-6 ATS last 6 when playing on just 1 day of rest. Warriors are 4-1 ATS last 5 games vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take Golden State!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jan 04 '20, 8:35 PM in 10h
NBA | Spurs vs Bucks
Play on: Spurs +12 -104 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: San Antonio Spurs +12
The San Antonio Spurs have been awesome following a loss here of late. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss. I think there’s great value with the Spurs catching 12 points from the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
The Bucks struggled to put away the Timberwolves in a fortunate 106-104 win as 18-point home favorites last time out. It’s a Bucks team that is now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Oddsmakers are forced to set their numbers higher than they should be knowing that the betting public is going to back them blindly.
Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (San Antonio) - I in non-conference games, a well-rested team playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Bet the Spurs Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Jan 04 '20, 10:00 PM in 11h
NCAA-B | San Diego State vs Utah State
Play on: San Diego State +2½ -104 at pinnacle

** Featured Free Play **
The NCAAB Comp play is on San Diego St +2 at 10:35 eastern. The Aztecs are undefeated this season have have tournament knockout revenge on a Utah St team they have beaten 11 of 13. The Aztecs are 12-1 after allowing 60 or less in 3 straight games and 6-0 vs winning teams, as well as having a top 10 defense. Utah St is 1-5 when the total is 130-140 and has failed to cover 5 of 6 if they won 3 of the last 4 as well as going 1-3 vs teams that allow less than 64 points per game. Take the points with SD.ST. RV- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jan 04 '20, 10:08 PM in 11h
NHL | Rangers vs Canucks
Play on: Rangers +140 at sportsbook

1* Free Play on Rangers +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita Park

Santa Anita Park - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta /$2 Rolling Double $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 3-4-5) $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super High 5
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 12:30
FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. MIKE OPERATOR is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MIKE OPERATOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SILVER FURY: Horse has a TrackMast er "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROYAL RANGER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surf ace.
3	MIKE OPERATOR	9/5	7/2
5	SILVER FURY	3/1	9/2
2	ROYAL RANGER	2/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MY JOURNEY	4	7/2	Front-runner	77	62	102.4	58.8	49.8
2	ROYAL RANGER	2	2/1	Front-runner	84	75	60.7	71.1	65.6
3	MIKE OPERATOR	3	9/5	Stalker	83	75	77.6	76.2	71.7
5	SILVER FURY	5	3/1	Trailer	88	78	71.1	75.0	73.0
8	WILD CAT CANYON	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	58	66.2	53.4	43.4
7	CREEDS REVENGE	7	50/1	Alternator/Non-contender	46	45	54.8	29.8	15.3
6	J C'S HENRIETTA	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	26.5	41.7	30.2
1	STRONG RULER	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	22.8	40.8	28.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne

Hawthorne - Race 6	$1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / $1 Daily Double
SO $13,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 3:25P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2019 - 2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $13,500. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. HEY HEY is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * IMA LITTLE KITTEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TOKEN VOW: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. JE SUIS BELLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. COUNTRY ASSETS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's th ird or fourth start after a layoff. DONTOUCHTHATDIAL: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
3	IMA LITTLE KITTEN	5/1	5/1
6	TOKEN VOW	2/1	7/1
7	JE SUIS BELLE	10/1	8/1
4	COUNTRY ASSETS	6/1	8/1
9	DONTOUCHTHATDIAL	9/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	JE SUIS BELLE	7	10/1	Front-runner	83	74	95.8	65.0	55.0
1	LADY EXPRESS	1	15/1	Front-runner	79	75	78.4	61.6	50.1
5	HEY HEY	5	12/1	Stalker	76	63	75.6	59.4	44.4
9	DONTOUCHTHATDIAL	9	9/2	Trailer	66	76	52.1	69.6	60.6
2	CHAINMAIL	2	10/1	Trailer	80	64	50.2	55.0	40.5
4	COUNTRY ASSETS	4	6/1	Trailer	86	70	49.0	70.6	62.1
3	IMA LITTLE KITTEN	3	5/1	Trailer	88	78	46.6	76.8	70.8
6	TOKEN VOW	6	2/1	Trailer	82	74	33.4	73.6	65.1
8	BONITA SPRINGS	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	75	51.4	66.3	61.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $5300 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ECE MATEO 20/1
# 4 LRH FAST AS OAK 4/1
# 8 EYESA ZOOMIN FOR BUX 3/1

ECE MATEO is the strongest bet in this race especially at 20/1. Should be given a chance based on the decent speed figure recorded in the last affair. This animal could surprise this bunch at a solid price. Will make a good showing versus this lot. LRH FAST AS OAK - Must be considered based on the very good speed figure recorded in the last contest. Is a solid contender based on numbers put up lately under today's conditions. EYESA ZOOMIN FOR BUX - Has decent Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Could beat this field given the 73 speed figure recorded in her last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #10 - Post: 4:51pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#6 JACOBS FLYER (ML=3/1)
#5 OHMYMY OHMYYES (ML=6/1)


JACOBS FLYER - After a pair of sprints, he's routing today, which is probably what this gelding wants to do. OHMYMY OHMYYES - Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't finish in the money, but made a nice move down the stretch making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. Past Performances show this pony with three improving speed figures. Murrill should be on a live one in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MISS YOU JO (ML=5/2), #1 MY CLASSIC BOWTIE (ML=5/1), #3 B RASEN (ML=6/1),

MISS YOU JO - You always figure that this animal has a shot to be victorious, but he falters most every time. MY CLASSIC BOWTIE - Finished sixth last time out. Would have to perk up to land in the top three today. Garnered a substandard speed fig last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on Dec 13th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. B RASEN - Didn't finish in the money on November 23rd at Delta Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. When checking today's class rating, he will have to record a much better speed figure than in the last race to compete in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 JACOBS FLYER is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29600 Class Rating: 62

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 SKYTOWN CAT 2/1
# 2 REALLY RED 20/1
# 4 MACADOOOO KID 3/1

I give my vote to SKYTOWN CAT here. This gelding is a key contender based on his earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Could beat this field given the 61 speed rating posted in his last outing. The average class fig alone makes this entrant a key contender. REALLY RED - This gelding could improve with second time Lasix. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the front end recently. MACADOOOO KID - Trainer boasts sharp win numbers at this distance and surface. With a strong 54 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:01pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#10 LION AND THE WOLF (ML=4/1)
#9 SWEET BLAME (ML=3/1)


LION AND THE WOLF - The Dec 14th affair at Parx Racing was at a class level of (83). Dropping down the class scale a significant amount, so she should be in a good spot. Entered a Starter Allowance race at Parx Racing last race out and raced in the slop finishing ninth. Will do better in today's race. SWEET BLAME - With a big class drop in class figure points from her December 17th race at Parx Racing. Based on that information, I will give this one the advantage. Ran a lackluster race at Parx Racing last time around the track. Racing on a fast track puts this filly at the top of my contenders roll call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BUCKS SOME (ML=9/5), #4 GLOWING STAR (ML=6/1),

BUCKS SOME - Hasn't been winning of late when made the favorite. Take a look at her record. Last effort was too good. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'bounce' this time. GLOWING STAR - On a downward spiraling sequence. Speed figs keep declining.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 LION AND THE WOLF is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip