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Game: (653) UMKC at (654) UT Rio Grande Valley
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 138.0 (-109)
View Analysis
8 PM ET -- College Basketball
653 UMKC
654 UT Rio Grande Valley
PLAY --> OVER 138
BET SIZE --> 3%
My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Game: (619) Tennessee State at (620) Tennessee Martin
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 8:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 153.0 (-110)
View Analysis
8:30 PM ET -- College Basketball
619 Tennessee State
620 Tennessee Martin
PLAY --> UNDER 153
BET SIZE --> 3%
My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
FINNs NBA ROAD WARRIOR of the DAY
Game: (505) Portland Trail Blazers at (506) Minnesota T\\\'wolves
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 8:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -115
View Analysis
PLAY: Portland Trail Blazers -115 (money-line play) If you do not have money-line options then PortlanD is currently -1.5 at most Vegas and Offshore shops.
4% confidence rating
(505) Portland Trail Blazers at (506) Minnesota T'wolves
The Wolves are a defensive disaster. And as long as Towns continues to miss game to his current Knee ailment this Minnesota squad can not keep up offensively and show no signs of understanding Webster's definition of defense.
I waited to administer a confidence rating to this game because I wanted definitive evidence or an announcement that Towns is in fac not play. In addition I wanted to feel confident that Whiteside was starting. In a situation where the Blazers had Whiteside dressed and active in combination with Towns inactive this 4% play rating would move into the Big Ticket container, as a 5% release.
Portland with or without Whiteside has an extremely high porbability of winning. And jumping the current number of -1 or -2, preferably the money-line of -120 or less being better, is a solid investment in tonight's short slate of events.
The backcourt of the Blazers is dominatingly better than that of the Wolves and wiithout Towns the Blazers will score at will both inside and out and likely register at least 20 fast break points against the hapless Timberwolves.
PORTLANT TRAIL BLAZERS -115
Game: (501) Cleveland Cavaliers at (502) Detroit Pistons
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 7:05 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers 7.0 (-109)
View Analysis
Pistons back home after a long terrible road trip....but one that DID end with a semi-crazy comeback win in Cleveland against these same Cavs on Tuesday night. Pistons aren't getting any of the missing pieces back from the road trip...meaning Morris and Kennard and of course Blake still out...but Love and Thompson playing and I called the bluff the line was wrong the other night and tonight WOULD NOT be 9.5 or 10.
Cavs might win this damn game as well...but considering the spot it is amazing VALUE getting nearly 4 more full points for rapid revenge...and the drama surrounding Beilein can be ignored for the most part...
Game: (507) Houston Rockets at (508) Oklahoma City Thunder
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 9:35 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Houston Rockets -2.0 (-110)
View Analysis
I actually HATE the spot OKC is in tonight and despite the Rockets B2B after ATL last night shouldn't be all that bad...Beard had 22 in the 1st quarter and with Russ back tonight in the old stomping grounds and the Rockets mostly healthy this should be a game they can catch the Thunder a little sleepy off a 4 game roadie of which they covered all and 3 before that!
Small price to pay with the Thunder on a 1st home game back and maybe still no
Game: (629) Arkansas Little Rock at (630) Troy
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 139.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Little Rock's star Markquis Nowell left the last game and can't be fully healthy no matter his status tonight....Sun Belt showdown and Troy at home and a favorite flip....uh yeah let's get down on some Under....quickly before it drops more!
Finn
Game: (631) Memphis at (632) Wichita State
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Wichita State -5.5 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Witchita State Shockers -5.5 (good to -8)
4% confidence rating
(631) Memphis at (632) Wichita State
Wichita State has performed in and through a November to January non-conference schedule as good as can be expected. Better-than, all things being equal.
This American Athletic Conference contest finds the Shockers in terrific spot. A situational play against a highly regarded Finn Factor squad in November, this being Memphis, but with a Weisman in the paint. No Weisman and the Tigers will be subject to due diligence each and everytime they take the hardwood.
The Shockers have won seven straight at home. The league opener in Do-Dah saw the Wheat-Eaters playing exciting basketball. I personally had WSU being competitive this season but situationally believed they would offer little value because of their mid-major public perception.
HC Gregg Marshall called tonight a “big boy basketball” game. Marshall knows that he men have to be at their best each and every night to beat quality opponents. The Tigers are a quality troupe but without their big man in the paint they are suspect getting small numbers playing the role of visitor in league play.
WSU is lead by a group of young players. WSU's trio of top scorers are not yet Seniors. And Memphis are spring chickens compared to most of the league’s rosters. Memphis is, are if you will, a group of freshmen and sophomores. Memphis met a quality program in their last game, and fell, by a 65-62 defeat against Georgia on Saturday -- in Memphis nonetheless.
Bottom line in this contest is that Memphis is young and have been overwhelmed in close games away from the Mississippi River they call home. Freshman forward Precious Achiuwa has been one of the primary contenders in the paint since Weisman decided to put his cards in the NBA pot. The young swing has three straight double-doubles, averaging 17.3 points and 11.7 rebounds in that span, and seventh this season. Wichita State junior F Trey Wade is a quite All-Conference type averaging 8.8 points and a team-high 6.8 rebounds per contest.
WSU is working hard for quality shots and the practice has paid off. Shockers freshman Tyson Etienne (34) and sophomore Erik Stevenson (30)were money in the team win over the Rebels.
Without Weisman this Tigers group needs to be stellar on the defensive side of the floor... to win...The Tigers rank second in the nation in field goal percentage defense (35.2). The issue for the Tigers is that as good as Wichita State has been offensively they are one of the best defensive teams that Memphis will face the rest of the season.
Shockers were a Memphis team that figures to scuffle with the venue, the Shockers fan base and with their shot.
WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS -5.5
FINNs WCC GAME of the DAY
Game: (677) Santa Clara at (678) San Francisco
Date/Time: Jan 9 2020 11:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco -6.0 (-105)
View Analysis
PLAY: San Fran Dons -6 (good to -8)
4% confidence rating
(677) Santa Clara at (678) San Francisco
The Santa Clara start to the season has kept this handicap to less than a touchdown tonight in the Bay Area. In addition to the Broncos 14-2 record the Dons have lost three straight. Those trio of contests were versus Harvard in overtime, a technically strong St Mary's and their last was at Portland (who was coming off a loss to Gonzaga. But a loss that was much closer than the 85-72 final score. Jumping off course to the guts of this tilt do not sleep on the Portland Pilots. The 9-8 Pilots are being overlooked, even by the likes of KenPom
Santa Clara played a cupcake non-con slate which is the variable that makes their 14-2 mark smoke and mirrors.
When February rolls around it will be the Dons who are challenging for one of the top seeds in the West Coast Conference along with Mary and the Zags... not the Clara Broncos
SAN FRAN. -6.5
SANTA CLARA @ SAN FRAN. | 1/09 | 11:00 PM EST
6:22 PM
When these squads met less than a year ago, the Dons were 14-point favorites. Since San Francisco has failed to cover its last five games, bettors have a nice discount. Look for the Dons to bounce back nicely from their three-game losing streak.
12-9 IN LAST 21 CBB ATS PICKS | +190 GONZAGA -15.5
GONZAGA @ SAN DIEGO | 1/09 | 10:00 PM EST
6:18 PM
For the first time in a very long period, Gonzaga has covered just once in its last five contests. Usually an outlier in covering, the team has been struggling in that regard despite winning eight in a row. A statement victory is right around the corner, and who better to post it against than a San Diego team that has lost each of the last 10 matchups by an average of 22.6 points.
12-9 IN LAST 21 CBB ATS PICKS | +190
CLEVELAND +7.5
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT | 1/09 | 7:00 PM EST
6:10 PM
I think the Cavaliers will play inspired ball after coach John Beilein gave an emotional apology after his “slugs” comment. The players seemed to take his apology in stride and believe his allegiance to the team. Look for a committed young Cleveland team to rally within and play a very good game.
14-5 IN LAST 19 NBA PICKS | +851
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