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DR. CHUCK SUNDAY
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (821) Michigan State at (822) Purdue
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 136.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Purdue has not been the same ole Purdue for the most part since the end of December....despite a PATHETIC hiccup against Illinois. Today they host Sparty...who is becoming better by the game...back to the #1 we expected with Cash doing it all from the 1.
Purdue is back home and CAN score...where MSU isn't the best defense in the world, they are just great at whipping on teams lately and while I'd expect that again here....Painter will have his boys ready and while they aren't as good as the Final Four team from a year, they are still a very solid B1G team from the best conference in hoops and should be game for a great effort at home.
I like to back the defensive end in college hoops as much as anyone, but here we have the team with the best offensive efficiency at a 116, with Purdue not all that terrible at 105+....and a total that underestimates which end will dominate in my opinion....as both teams have a sub-90 defensive efficiency and Purdue that likes to run at a snail's pace....but not lately as much as the earliest parts of the season.
This bet is mostly about being a little off from my numbers and the added bonus of Purdue being extra game for their biggest game so far this year....in West Lafayette
Game: (835) Siena at (836) Manhattan
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 2:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Siena -135
View Analysis
Not the best price...but the price we must pay for a winner on a ML I would rank as a certain 5+% play today in MAAC-tion.
It is quite possible Manhattan, to this point, is the WORST .500 or better offense in the entire nation....with the only time they rank inside the top 200 overall in anyting on the offensive end is #191 at avoiding getting their shots blocked...at which they will be at a decent size disadvantage against the Saints today.
The Jaspers are playing their first home MAAC game after a bad loss on Friday at Fairfield, but following (somehow) road wins at Canisius and Niagara....before this big step up in class...albeit at home today. This combined with the fact Siena hasn't won a game on the road yet this season gets us this bargain line I have in the -3/4 for Siena at open in my numbers.
X factors today for our W will be the monster edge Siena will hold on the defensive glass....at 6th...yes, MAAC team ranked 6th at disallowing opponents second chances...largely led by Manny Camper, who is the reasoning for the ranking, himself in the top 25 nationally on the defensive boards...and along with his cohorts make up a lineup that....while potentially blasphemous in a mostly competitive league...may prohibit ANY of the starters for Manhattan to crack a top 5 (or 6) for Siena. If there was a player, like Tykei Greene is the guy...and his status for today is even in question....only furthering this potential insane mismatch today!
Get the line if you can get less than a bucket....I also like that play at -1.5 especially....-2 is solid and both would be 4% plays while the ML is at least a 5% play for certain!
BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (821) Michigan State at (822) Purdue
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 136.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Purdue has not been the same ole Purdue for the most part since the end of December....despite a PATHETIC hiccup against Illinois. Today they host Sparty...who is becoming better by the game...back to the #1 we expected with Cash doing it all from the 1.
Purdue is back home and CAN score...where MSU isn't the best defense in the world, they are just great at whipping on teams lately and while I'd expect that again here....Painter will have his boys ready and while they aren't as good as the Final Four team from a year, they are still a very solid B1G team from the best conference in hoops and should be game for a great effort at home.
I like to back the defensive end in college hoops as much as anyone, but here we have the team with the best offensive efficiency at a 116, with Purdue not all that terrible at 105+....and a total that underestimates which end will dominate in my opinion....as both teams have a sub-90 defensive efficiency and Purdue that likes to run at a snail's pace....but not lately as much as the earliest parts of the season.
This bet is mostly about being a little off from my numbers and the added bonus of Purdue being extra game for their biggest game so far this year....in West Lafayette
Game: (835) Siena at (836) Manhattan
Date/Time: Jan 12 2020 2:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Siena -135
View Analysis
Not the best price...but the price we must pay for a winner on a ML I would rank as a certain 5+% play today in MAAC-tion.
It is quite possible Manhattan, to this point, is the WORST .500 or better offense in the entire nation....with the only time they rank inside the top 200 overall in anyting on the offensive end is #191 at avoiding getting their shots blocked...at which they will be at a decent size disadvantage against the Saints today.
The Jaspers are playing their first home MAAC game after a bad loss on Friday at Fairfield, but following (somehow) road wins at Canisius and Niagara....before this big step up in class...albeit at home today. This combined with the fact Siena hasn't won a game on the road yet this season gets us this bargain line I have in the -3/4 for Siena at open in my numbers.
X factors today for our W will be the monster edge Siena will hold on the defensive glass....at 6th...yes, MAAC team ranked 6th at disallowing opponents second chances...largely led by Manny Camper, who is the reasoning for the ranking, himself in the top 25 nationally on the defensive boards...and along with his cohorts make up a lineup that....while potentially blasphemous in a mostly competitive league...may prohibit ANY of the starters for Manhattan to crack a top 5 (or 6) for Siena. If there was a player, like Tykei Greene is the guy...and his status for today is even in question....only furthering this potential insane mismatch today!
Get the line if you can get less than a bucket....I also like that play at -1.5 especially....-2 is solid and both would be 4% plays while the ML is at least a 5% play for certain!
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