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Kyle Marley
Corey Anderson -200 vs. Jan Blachowicz +170: Anderson via unanimous decision
This is a rematch of a fight Anderson dominated for a unanimous decision. This should come down to whether Anderson's chin can hold up. If so, I expect the same outcome. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he should have no issue winning rounds against Blachowicz with his wrestling. He was 4-for-4 on takedowns in their first fight and now he has a possible title shot on the line with a win. He also can hang on the feet, but his biggest issue is his chin and Blachowicz has power. If Blachowicz doesn't get the knockout, I don't see how he gets his hand raised.
Michel Pereira -155 vs. Diego Sanchez +135: Pereira via TKO
Pereira looks to be a knockout-or-bust type fighter, while Sanchez is toward the end of his career. I think the most likely outcome is a Pereira knockout and that is what I am picking. However, if he doesn't get it, Sanchez can grind him out and possibly even out-strike him over the course of three rounds. Not sure I would want to lay the juice here, but I think Pereira takes him out early.
Devin Clark -310 vs. Dequan Townsend +255: Clark via unanimous decision
Townsend is coming off a loss just a couple weeks ago and this is another bad matchup for him. Aside from a knockout, I don't see how Townsend wins. Clark has more power, throws more volume and is a way better wrestler. I think Clark uses his wrestling to grind out a 30-27 decision.
Montana De La Rosa -165 vs. Mara Romero Borella +145: Borella via split decision
This is a close one, but I think De La Rosa is the better grappler and Borella is the better striker. I think De La Rosa can keep rounds close on the feet and use her wrestling to try and steal rounds, but she isn't a great wrestler. I wouldn't want to rely on her having to get the fight to the mat. I think she probably wins this fight the majority of the time, but it might be a dog-or-pass pass situation. I might change my pick on this later in the week, but right now I will take the underdog in a close fight.
Brok Weaver -280 vs. Kazula Vargas +240: Weaver via unanimous decision
I have a new rule, for now anyway, to stay away from betting favorites in their UFC debuts. So, I will be staying away from Weaver, but I think he gets the job done. He is the better fighter everywhere and can win this fight with his boxing or grappling. I would say the one edge Vargas has is power, so he should be looking for a knockout.
Lando Vannata -115 vs. Yancy Medeiros -105: Vannata via TKO
These guys like to throw down and this could be the Fight of the Night. Medeiros is going to be the bigger, longer guy and that could cause Vannata issues on the feet. I think Vannata is more well-rounded and more dangerous. This is a close fight, but I would give Vannata slightly better than a 50-50 chance, so he is my pick and if he becomes an underdog I would be interested in a play.
Tim Means -255 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +215: Means via TKO
Rodriguez is making his UFC debut at 33 years old and this looks like a rough matchup. He will be the younger fighter, looks to be the guy with more power and he can fight at a high pace. I just think he is too hittable and not technical enough for a guy like Means, and I think Means makes this a dirty fight and possibly finishes late.
Nathaniel Wood -155 vs. John Dodson +135: Wood via unanimous decision
Wood is the up-and-coming prospect and Dodson is the proven veteran. This will be Wood's toughest fight to date, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere. Dodson used to have a lot of power, but he hasn't knocked anyone out in almost four years and he has been way too inactive in fights lately. Wood looks like he could be a serious contender and I expect him to be the fighter throwing more volume, landing the harder shots and the one more likely to land takedowns.
Scott Holtzman -130 vs. Jim Miller +110: Holtzman via unanimous decision
I think Holtzman is the better overall striker with a higher pace, more power and the better chin. I also think he is the better wrestler. Miller is the better grappler and more likely to get a submission. I don't see Holzman dominating, but I think he wins this fight more often than he loses. I will take him to win at least two of the three rounds.
Ray Borg -145 vs. Rogerio Bontorin +125: Bontorin by split decision
This should be a fun one between an up-and-coming prospect in Bontorin and a veteran in Borg. I think Bontorin is going to be the better striker and more dangerous on the feet. I think Borg is the better grappler and I expect this fight to include a decent amount of grappling. If Borg can land takedowns, he can win rounds with top control and possibly lock up a submission. I don't see him having much success on the feet, and we could see Bontorin land takedowns of his own. I think this is going to be a dog-or-pass fight for me, so I will take Bontorin as my pick.
Merab Dvalishvili -165 vs. Casey Kenney +145: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
I am looking forward to this one. Both guys have impressed me in their UFC fights and we should see some good grappling. Dvalishvili sets a crazy pace and I don't see that changing. I think he is the better wrestler and I expect him to get Kenney down multiple times. I think Kenney is the better striker of the and he is a good wrestler-grappler as well. He could have success there. I think Dvalishvili's pace and wrestling will be the difference. He lands 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and Kenney has been taken down 10 times in his two UFC fights.
Macy Chiasson vs. Shanna Young (odds unavailable): Chiasson via submission
This was originally going to be Chiasson vs Nicco Montano, but Montano pulled out Monday and Young accepted the fight on four days' notice. Chiasson didn't look good at all in her last fight, but she definitely has potential and I think she is the better fighter everywhere. There is no line on this fight yet, but I think Chiasson will be a big favorite and I think she could finish on the feet or the ground.
Raulian Paiva -210 vs. Mark De La Rosa +175: Paiva via unanimous decision
I think Paiva is the better fighter everywhere and, aside from getting submitted, I don't see him losing. De La Rosa is solid on the ground, but he isn't a good wrestler. I think Paiva will dictate where this fight takes place and I will take Paiva to win a pretty clear decision.
Corey Anderson -200 vs. Jan Blachowicz +170: Anderson via unanimous decision
This is a rematch of a fight Anderson dominated for a unanimous decision. This should come down to whether Anderson's chin can hold up. If so, I expect the same outcome. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he should have no issue winning rounds against Blachowicz with his wrestling. He was 4-for-4 on takedowns in their first fight and now he has a possible title shot on the line with a win. He also can hang on the feet, but his biggest issue is his chin and Blachowicz has power. If Blachowicz doesn't get the knockout, I don't see how he gets his hand raised.
Michel Pereira -155 vs. Diego Sanchez +135: Pereira via TKO
Pereira looks to be a knockout-or-bust type fighter, while Sanchez is toward the end of his career. I think the most likely outcome is a Pereira knockout and that is what I am picking. However, if he doesn't get it, Sanchez can grind him out and possibly even out-strike him over the course of three rounds. Not sure I would want to lay the juice here, but I think Pereira takes him out early.
Devin Clark -310 vs. Dequan Townsend +255: Clark via unanimous decision
Townsend is coming off a loss just a couple weeks ago and this is another bad matchup for him. Aside from a knockout, I don't see how Townsend wins. Clark has more power, throws more volume and is a way better wrestler. I think Clark uses his wrestling to grind out a 30-27 decision.
Montana De La Rosa -165 vs. Mara Romero Borella +145: Borella via split decision
This is a close one, but I think De La Rosa is the better grappler and Borella is the better striker. I think De La Rosa can keep rounds close on the feet and use her wrestling to try and steal rounds, but she isn't a great wrestler. I wouldn't want to rely on her having to get the fight to the mat. I think she probably wins this fight the majority of the time, but it might be a dog-or-pass pass situation. I might change my pick on this later in the week, but right now I will take the underdog in a close fight.
Brok Weaver -280 vs. Kazula Vargas +240: Weaver via unanimous decision
I have a new rule, for now anyway, to stay away from betting favorites in their UFC debuts. So, I will be staying away from Weaver, but I think he gets the job done. He is the better fighter everywhere and can win this fight with his boxing or grappling. I would say the one edge Vargas has is power, so he should be looking for a knockout.
Lando Vannata -115 vs. Yancy Medeiros -105: Vannata via TKO
These guys like to throw down and this could be the Fight of the Night. Medeiros is going to be the bigger, longer guy and that could cause Vannata issues on the feet. I think Vannata is more well-rounded and more dangerous. This is a close fight, but I would give Vannata slightly better than a 50-50 chance, so he is my pick and if he becomes an underdog I would be interested in a play.
Tim Means -255 vs. Daniel Rodriguez +215: Means via TKO
Rodriguez is making his UFC debut at 33 years old and this looks like a rough matchup. He will be the younger fighter, looks to be the guy with more power and he can fight at a high pace. I just think he is too hittable and not technical enough for a guy like Means, and I think Means makes this a dirty fight and possibly finishes late.
Nathaniel Wood -155 vs. John Dodson +135: Wood via unanimous decision
Wood is the up-and-coming prospect and Dodson is the proven veteran. This will be Wood's toughest fight to date, but I think he is the better fighter everywhere. Dodson used to have a lot of power, but he hasn't knocked anyone out in almost four years and he has been way too inactive in fights lately. Wood looks like he could be a serious contender and I expect him to be the fighter throwing more volume, landing the harder shots and the one more likely to land takedowns.
Scott Holtzman -130 vs. Jim Miller +110: Holtzman via unanimous decision
I think Holtzman is the better overall striker with a higher pace, more power and the better chin. I also think he is the better wrestler. Miller is the better grappler and more likely to get a submission. I don't see Holzman dominating, but I think he wins this fight more often than he loses. I will take him to win at least two of the three rounds.
Ray Borg -145 vs. Rogerio Bontorin +125: Bontorin by split decision
This should be a fun one between an up-and-coming prospect in Bontorin and a veteran in Borg. I think Bontorin is going to be the better striker and more dangerous on the feet. I think Borg is the better grappler and I expect this fight to include a decent amount of grappling. If Borg can land takedowns, he can win rounds with top control and possibly lock up a submission. I don't see him having much success on the feet, and we could see Bontorin land takedowns of his own. I think this is going to be a dog-or-pass fight for me, so I will take Bontorin as my pick.
Merab Dvalishvili -165 vs. Casey Kenney +145: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
I am looking forward to this one. Both guys have impressed me in their UFC fights and we should see some good grappling. Dvalishvili sets a crazy pace and I don't see that changing. I think he is the better wrestler and I expect him to get Kenney down multiple times. I think Kenney is the better striker of the and he is a good wrestler-grappler as well. He could have success there. I think Dvalishvili's pace and wrestling will be the difference. He lands 6.75 takedowns per 15 minutes and Kenney has been taken down 10 times in his two UFC fights.
Macy Chiasson vs. Shanna Young (odds unavailable): Chiasson via submission
This was originally going to be Chiasson vs Nicco Montano, but Montano pulled out Monday and Young accepted the fight on four days' notice. Chiasson didn't look good at all in her last fight, but she definitely has potential and I think she is the better fighter everywhere. There is no line on this fight yet, but I think Chiasson will be a big favorite and I think she could finish on the feet or the ground.
Raulian Paiva -210 vs. Mark De La Rosa +175: Paiva via unanimous decision
I think Paiva is the better fighter everywhere and, aside from getting submitted, I don't see him losing. De La Rosa is solid on the ground, but he isn't a good wrestler. I think Paiva will dictate where this fight takes place and I will take Paiva to win a pretty clear decision.
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