Service Plays Saturday 3/7/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GOODFELLA

CBB CONF. T.O.Y.

Oregon/Stanford over 133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From TheSwami
10 Top Side Play [569] Atlanta Hawks
Silky Sullivan Sat Mar 7th, 2020 8:05pm EST

[Calidreaming]

Big Al CBB late pick on San Fran

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets

NCAA Basketball: Belmont -3 @ 1.909/-110 (3 Units)
NCAA Basketball: Oregon -7.5 @ 1.862/-116 (3 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC 248

Israel Adesanya (-275) vs. Yoel Romero (+235): Adesanya via unanimous decision

I think Adesanya might be the best striker in the UFC. Yoel Romero is getting up in age at 42, but he is still one of the scariest fighters in the UFC. Adesanya is 4 inches taller, has a 7-inch reach edge and a huge advantage on the feet, aside from power. If this fight stays standing, Romero's only path to the win would be a knockout. Romero will have the wrestling advantage as well, so his other path to victory would be to mix in takedowns and land heavy ground-and-pound. With his power, he is a live underdog iand I wouldn't be shocked at all if he gets a knockout. I am going to pick Adesanya though. I think he will keep this fight at range, stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and I think he picks Romero apart on the feet. He either wins a decision or gets a knockout himself.

Weili Zhang (-180) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+160): Zhang via TKO

I think the betting line is about right. I think Jedrzejczyk is the more technical striker and she will be the one throwing more volume. However, Zhang has way more power and she would be the one that is looking to mix in takedowns. Zhang throws high volume as well, so I expect a high-paced fight that either Zhang wins inside the distance or it goes to a close decision. Zhang has more ways to win this but, if I knew this fight would go all 25 minutes, I think it would be a dog-or-pass fight and closer to 50-50.

Beniel Dariush (-165) vs. Drakkar Klose (+145): Dariush via unanimous decision

I see this fight being very close on the feet but, Dariush having the advantage on the ground if he can get it there. I think both guys will have their moments in striking, but I think Dariush will have some success with takedowns. Klose might be more hesitant on the feet with the threat of Dariush's ground game. If Dariush can get takedowns, he could find a submission or use his top control to try winning rounds or stealing close rounds, and that is why I will take him to win this fight.

Li Jingliang (-165) vs. Neil Magny (+145): Jingliang via TKO

I like Jingliang in this one. I think he is the better striker and has more finishing power as well. I would give the grappling edge to Magny, but I think Jingliang is the better wrestler and can control where this fight takes place. Magny also has crazy cardio and picks up the pace as the fight goes on, but I don't see Jingliang tiring out.

Alex Oliveira (-145) vs. Max Griffin (+125): Oliveira via unanimous decision

This is a close one, but I think the line is right, especially with Oliveira looking to end a four-fight losing streak and possibly keep his job. This should be close on the feet and I would say Griffin is more technical, but Oliveira is wild and more likely to get a knockout. I think Oliveira will have some success with takedowns as well, and that is what gives him the edge in this fight. He could finish on the feet or the ground, but Griffin is tough, so I think this goes all three rounds.

Sean O'Malley (-380) vs Jose Quinonez (+315): O'Malley via TKO

I think this is a setup fight for O'Malley to get a win and, if this fight stays on the feet, it could be an impressive one. He likes to throw a lot of flashy strikes and he is a high-volume striker as well. I think he picks Quinonez apart on the feet and, if he is taken down, he will throw up submissions off his back. I think Quinonez could have success with takedowns, but I don't know that he is safe even if he gets them. I am going to take O'Malley to get a finish.

Mark Madsen (-220) vs. Austin Hubbard (+180): Madsen via TKO

Madsen is an Olympic wrestler and he has serious power for the lightweight division. I think Hubbard is the better striker, but he doesn't have a ton of power, so his best chance would be to tire Madsen out early and try to win the striking battle. Madsen's wrestling is too good to not work against Hubbard, and I don't see him slowing down enough for Hubbard to stuff takedowns or cause him to empty his gas tank. I think the takedowns will be there whenever Madsen wants them, and he finishes this fight on the ground with a submission or a knockout.

Rodolfo Vieira (-800) vs. Saparbek Safarov (+550): Vieira via submission

This is knockout or bust for Safarov. Vieira is the biggest favorite on the card and he might only need one takedown to finish this fight. He will have a massive edge on the ground, and I think he will look for takedowns early and often. He finishes this fight with a submission in round 1.

Deron Winn (-145) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+125): Meerschaert via submission

Winn's biggest advantage is going to be his wrestling and overhand right. However, Meerschaert is the most dangerous on the ground, so I am not sure he will even want to take it there, and Meerschaert is 7 inches taller with a 7-inch reach advantage so he will look to jab and kick and stay at range to avoid the knockout punch. If this fight hits the ground, Meerschaert is live for a submission from the bottom and, if he can get takedowns himself, or a reversal, I think Winn could be in big trouble. I think his size advantage on the feet can help him win striking exchanges as well, so I am going to pick him to get the upset.

Polyana Viana (-115) vs. Emily Whitmire (-105): Viana via submission

It's hard to trust either of these fighters, but I give the edge to Viana. I think she will be the one throwing more volume on the feet and I like her grappling more as well. She is 0-3 in the UFC, and Whitmire is fighting in her hometown. If this goes to a decision, it could be close, and the crowd will be cheering for Whitmire. Either one could get a submission as well, but I favor Viana on the ground and I'll take her to get the submission.

Jamall Emmers (-165) vs. Giga Chikadze (+145): Emmers via unanimous decision

Both guys had their original fights canceled and are fighting each other on short notice. Emmers has two big wins on the regional scene over Alexander Hernandez and one of my favorite prospects, Cory Sandhagen. He is a great wrestler and should have a big edge there. His issue is that he likes to strike, and he is a bit chinny, and Giga is a great kickboxer. I think Emmers should have an easy path to victory if he looks to wrestle early and often, I just am not confident that's what he looks to do. He has power, but a striking battle is way riskier, and he could be knocked out. With this being his UFC debut, I would hope he plays it safe and takes this fight to the ground. I will take him to win with either a submission or a unanimous decision.

Danaa Batgerel (-135) vs. Guido Cannetti (+115): Cannetti via split decision

I give Batgerel the striking edge, but the grappling edge goes to Cannetti. I am not impressed with either guy, but I think this is a dog-or-pass fight on the betting line. I think Cannetti could win rounds with takedowns and top-control time. I don't think I would want to trust him with my money, but the ground is his path to victory and I think he will look to get it there early.