Friday 7/24/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:28 PM

Sean Murphy
Jul 24 '20, 7:05 PM in 3d
MLB | MIA vs PHI
Play on: UNDER 8½ -112

Friday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

With a starting pitching matchup of Sandy Alcantara against Aaron Nola I think a lot of bettors will look for reasons to back the 'over' in this season-opening N.L. East affair on Friday night. A deeper look has me looking to back the 'under' at Citizens Bank Park.

Sandy Alcantara will get the call for the Marlins. Command has certainly been an issue for Alcantara in his first two big league seasons, although last year was his first full season at this level, in which he made 32 starts, posting a respectable 3.88 ERA despite issuing nearly four walks per nine innings. Note that two years ago in a limited six-start stint, Alcantara issues over six walks per nine frames! I do look for him to take another step in the right direction this season and feel he can get off to a solid start against the Phillies on Friday night.

Aaron Nola counters for Philadelphia. He made a career-high 34 starts last season and took a bit of a step back following an incredible 2018 campaign, recording a 3.87 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2019. The fact is, Nola has turned in an impressive three-season run since 2017 and is certainly deserving of the Phils Opening Day nod here. Note that he worked at least into the seventh inning in all three starts against the Marlins last season.

We're being offered a fairly standard total of 8.5 here, slightly juiced to the 'under' at the time of writing. I would have had it pegged a half-run lower, and will take the advantage being offered here. Take the under (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:29 PM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: MIAMI/PHILADELPHIA UNDER the total of 8½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:29 PM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the NY Mets w/deGrom -137 over Atlanta

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:29 PM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Friday : PITTSBURGH/ST LOUIS OVER the total of 7½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:29 PM

Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Friday: KANSAS CITY/CLEVELAND OVER the total of 8½ runs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:29 PM

Weekly Bankroll Builder: July 24 Stronach 5 Play

July 22, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Back to battle with another Laurel Park-Gulfstream Park Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:23 ET) – 3upfm 16k N2L at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

We kick off a sequence that seems a bit more manageable than most with a bit of a scramble, so I’ll go three-deep, with #1 ECHO OF VICTORY (5-1) rating as my top pick, not only because she should be a decent price, but because she looks like the right fresh new face in a race there for the taking off her strong MCL win last time. You have to use #3 RAGTIME SUZY (5-1), who goes off the Sanchez-Salomon claim (21%), gets back to the turf, and cuts back, as there’s no doubt her grass form is much better than her main track form. I’ll also slide in #5 HALFINTHEWRAPPER (9-2), off a speedy 2nd on the main, since her lone turf run came against eons better than she meets here, and this outside attack post seems perfect for her style.

Pk5 A horses: 1,3,5 (listed in order of preference)

I’m not sold on #6 JUDI BLUE EYES (4-1), who would be a big underlay at this price and has had her chances, but she’s in the mix on paper and will run on, so she looks the definition of a backup.

Pk5 B horses: 6

Potential B add-ins: #8 Pins and Needles (10-1), #2 Princess Rosie (10-1), #4 Merry Maid (10-1), #10 Sunday Red (6-1)

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3upfm Fl-bred AOC (16k/N1X) at 1-mile

With a ton of pace signed on, which could directly impact several of the would-be contenders, I’ll be aggressive here and use only two, with #5 ALLUSTRA (8-1), who will be nowhere near this ML, looking good from off the pace after facing open foes in his last five. I guess the horse to beat is #7 R U LUCKY (2-1), though betting him anywhere near this ML would be a bad idea, but he stretched out to this trip and was a solid 3rd at the level last time, and his pressing style from this post will give him first run on the pick too.

Pk5 A horses: 5,7

The expected hot pace, and the fact a few of the perceived contenders want to be part of it, makes me want to go it alone on the top line, so there will be no backups here.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #6 Ingreido (3-1), #3 So Long Chuck (4-1)

Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3up 25k SOC at 1-mile (turf)

Another race where I think the win threats are easily identifiable, and I’m hoping #1 START WITH YES (9-2) gets brave off the Robb claim (24%) off a slew of sprints, as the lead is there for the taking, he’s certainly bred for this trip, and new rider Perez is a robust 26% for the barn. Obviously #4 SOMEKINDOFMAGICIAN (5-2) is the one to beat, as he’s proven routing, is tactical, and was just a close 2nd at the level, though his margin for error is a bit smaller than his off odds will suggest. Don’t sleep on #6 DHARMASTER (5-1), who predictably chased and tired to 5th behind ‘Magician last time, but that came off a 13-month layoff, so he’ll be a lot tighter here, especially since Trombetta is 25% second-off a long layoff.

Pk5 A horses: 1,4,6

I like the top trio I have and the rest seem a bit suspect, so I’ll go it alone, especially since my next pick, #2 Closer Look (5-1), has no speed and may regress off the big 3rd behind ‘Magician last time.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #2 Closer Look (5-1)

Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3upfm 12.5k N2L at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

In what looks like the biggest spread race of the sequence, I’m using a total of seven, with five on the top line, led by a price with #2 LADY PARADISE (10-1), who should be up close throughout off the long break for a D’Angelo barn that is 2-for-10 off extended layoffs, 3-for-13 (23%) with Panici, and this miss was a fast 3rd (for this group) when last seen on the turf. The trio of #10 ZIP IT JESS (7-2), #11 DINNER AT FIVE (2-1), and #4 GRAN DIAMOND (9-2) would be no surprise, but none of them inspire either, so I’d be hesitant on leaning too heavily on any of them. (As an aside, there’s just no way ‘Dinner can be 2-1 off a slow, all-out MCL win, so don’t just look casually and this she’s a single candidate). Lastly, I’ll toss in longshot #5 FLAMING LADY (20-1), who drops in half off a decent 6th in her turf debut, and she won’t have to run that much faster to play with, or even beat, this crew.

Pk5 A horses: 2,10,11,4,5

I could easily have put #3 PRINCESS AVRIL (10-1) and #12 R SEA SMOKE (5-1) up above, but the former wasn’t all that good facing winners last time, while the latter drew poorly and may need pace help on the drop, so I’ll limit their use to supporting actresses.

Pk5 B horses: 3,12

Potential B add-ins: #7 Dancingwithjimmieb (15-1)

Leg 5: Laurel Park R10 (4:33 ET) – 3up 12.5k claimer at 1 1/16 miles (turf)

If Leg 4 was the definite spread, then Leg 5 is the definite single, as #6 CHOCOLATE RIDE (8-5) just lays over a very modest field, especially since his biggest rival, #13 Jag (4-1) is on the AE list, as his four starts since going to Russell are simply better than anything this group has done in quite some time.

Pk5 A horses: 6

Should Jag draw in, then he could be used as a backup, since he drops in class and fits on figures, but even so, this post would do him no favors, as he’ll be wide every step of the way. As for the rest, no one inspires nearly enough to be worth inclusion.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #12 Posterity (9-2), #8 Bondurant (6-1)

The tickets:

Main Ticket: 1,3,5 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 2,10,11,4,5 with 6 = $90
Leg 1 B Backup: 6 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 2,10,11,4,5 with 6 = $30
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,3,5 with 5,7 with 1,4,6 with 3,12 with 6 = $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:30 PM

Ricky Tran
Jul 24 '20, 8:10 PM in 1d
MLB | MIN vs CWS
Play on: UNDER 8½ -114

Ricky's Free play on Under 8.5.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- The White Sox have gone under in four straight home games.

- These teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last seven meetings.

- Berrios was 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts at US Cellular Field last year.

The verdict: look for runs to be hard to come by here in a battle of aces.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:30 PM

Jimmy Boyd
Jul 24 '20, 9:10 PM in 1d
MLB | SEA vs HOU
Play on: OVER 7½ -115

1* Free Pick on Mariners/Astros over 7½ -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:30 PM

Red Dog Sports
Jul 24 '20, 3:00 PM in 20h
Soccer | Cittadella vs Chievo
Play on: Draw +210 at YouWager

Draw +210

Chievo 1

Cittadella 1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:30 PM

Dave Cokin

Event: (973) Arizona Diamondbacks at (974) San Diego Padres
Sport/League: MLB
Date/Time: July 24, 2020 9PM EDT
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-105)

Bumgarner and Paddack the starters here. Both guys project as being very tough first time through the order, which is the name of the game when trying to garner an early inning O/U advantage. Paddack in particular was a terror in early innings last season, and while MadBum didn't have a great season, he was tough early in most games. I also like the fact this game is starting at about 6:10 Pacific time, and that late afternoon sun can be hell on hitters. Good spot to grab a F5 Under between the Snakes and Friars.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:31 PM

NSA THE LEGEND!

Friday, July 24th 2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Detroit @ Cincinnati
TIME: 6:10 PM EST
PICK: OVER 8.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:31 PM

Rob Vinciletti
Jul 24 '20, 4:10 PM in 19h
MLB | Braves vs Mets
Play on: Mets -139 at YouWager

** Friday Featured Free Play **

The MLB Comp Play for Friday is on the NY. Mets. Game 952 at 4:10 eastern. The Mets are the best opening day team winning 38 of the last 50 and all 4 vs the Braves. Nice Historical data. However the biggest reasons we like the Mets chances is they they fit 2 league Wide systems. One is to play on game 1 home favorites who had a worse record than their opponent last year. These teams are 39-19 long term. Also home favorites from -125-175 are a nice 48-16 with a nice return on investment. The Mets have the Degrominator on the Mound and he threw a side session on Tuesday and the back is good to go. The Mets have dropped 7 of his 8 starts at home vs the Braves and that has to turn around at some point since Jakes numbers v the Braves are solid. The Braves were swept here in September and Soroka has lost 4 of his last 5 road starts. We will back the Mets today. Rob V- GC Sports

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-23-2020, 10:31 PM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Cincinnati w/Gray -170 over Detroit

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-24-2020, 05:22 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 24, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has 13-races set to roll tonight and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 10. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-OK Galahad (2-1)-Makes 3rd start for Petrelli barn and raced better versus $6k claimers in last and now drops. Leonard steers again, will have options from this post and is a major threat.
6-Major Jesse (15-1)-Only 3 for the last 55 and 1-23 in Stickney. Will put on the ticket with the driver change to Seekman and the drop. Could catch the speed if within striking range and the pace is honest.

Race 11

7-Crankin' It Up (8-1)-Took the scenic route in needed race for new barn. Makes 2nd start since 10/12 and will look for better. Hasn't won at Haw but did show good speed at the Mea last year. 10-year-old could be a threat if ready for a big try.
8-Sheriff Coffey (12-1)-Comes off a tough trip and is in a better spot versus this field. Should offer a big price and could leave for a good seat and stay in the hunt.
9-Fox Valley Triton (2-1)-Winner of >$107k in '19 seems an obvious choice. Drops into a soft spot and many will likely single as Leonard takes the lines. Winless in '20 and hasn't finished miles, needs more especially from post 9.

Race 12

1-Terror Of The Nite (5/2)-May have found a spot to capture 2nd win of the year. Smolin takes a seat and from the rail he should keep the 9-year-old in play.
6-Annihilator (7/2)-Warren chooses over #2 who he won with last week. Makes 4th local start and should like the company. Using and drops to a spot to shine.

Race 13

3-Bettor's Promise (9/2)-Gets post relief and this field doesn't have a real standout. Leonard sticks and will look for a strong try with this post draw.
4-Ricky Bobbie (20-1)-Wasn't Leonard's choice but best to not let the program odds scare you away. Bell needs to provide a good steer and can compete if put in play early on.
5-Dash Of Danger (7/2)-Was bet down to 4/5 versus NW $1500, had a dull effort and now bumps up. This is a tough race and will include but doesn't offer any value at the program odds. Ridge Warren takes the lines on Husted trainee.
6-Shark Play (3-1) -Sometimes HoP speed doesn't hold true on the Haw oval, but if so this 4-year-old is a player. Should like the company and has posted a 150.3 race time in Indiana this year.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6/7,8,9/1,6/3,4,5,6
Total Bet=$24