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Monday 8/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Handed you another free play NBA totals winner on the Blazers-Celtics Over the total, so why not hand you another totals winner on the Pacers-Wizards Over the total late this afternoon inside the Orlando bubble.
The Wizards are just playing out the string of regular season games, so I don't expect them to be playing too much defense at all. To illustrate my point, Washington has allowed 125 and 118 points in going 0-2 in this reboot.
Their pair of games have split in the Over/Under department, as for the season they are allowing nearly 120 points per game!
The Pacers looked impressive, especially T.J. Warren who scored 53 points in Indy's restart opening game win over the 76ers. The game landed Over the total to make it 4 in a row now for Indiana Over the posted price.
The Over is now 6-1 overall for Indiana's last 7 games played.
Warren comes to the rescue again for the short-handed Pacers as they find little issue scoring on the defenseless Wizards.
Indiana-Washington Over the total.
Damn, that hurt! Jon Lester goes out and does his job, but the Cubs could only muster 2 runs and when you have a Run Line release, unless you shut out the other team 2 runs isn't going to cut it.
It sure did not on Sunday and now I am left holding a bag of crap as the skid has hit 4 days in a row.
Not where I want to be, but I am not going to let yesterday's end result affect today's research.
I have to find a winner plain and simple.
The last few days have stunk, no sugar-coating it.
Tonight I am all set to find the winner that has been eluding me and get things going back in my direction.
Missed with Sunday’s complimentary selection on the Indians, snapping a three-day free-play winning streak. Back to the diamond for Monday’s freebie, as I’m banking on the Braves to complete a sweep of their four-day, wrap-around weekend series against the Mets.
It’s not often that you catch plus money with a team that’s riding a five-game winning streak (all at home), a team that’s beaten today’s opponent five consecutive times and a team that’s handing the ball to its ace. But such is the case here, as Atlanta (7-3 and winners of 5 in a row) is a slight home underdog to New York (3-7 and losers of 5 in a row).
Why are the Braves being shorted by the oddsmakers? Because they’re facing Mets ace (and two-time defending NL Cy Young winner) Jacob deGrom. I’m obviously not going to try to diminish deGrom’s skills — after all, he beat the Braves 1-0 on Opening Day, allowing a single hit and walk while striking out eight over five innings. That marked the fourth consecutive start since mid-September of last season that deGrom didn’t allow a run — a stretch that spanned 26 innings during which he gave up a combined 10 hits and two walks while striking out 32. Although deGrom’s scoreless string came to an end Wednesday in Boston, he still pitched great (two runs on three hits in six innings), but the Mets fell 6-5.
The right-hander also has been dominant against the Braves over the past two-plus seasons: In 10 starts dating to May 2, 2018, deGrom has posted a 1.79 ERA with 87 strikeouts and 12 walks in 65 1/3 innings.
Now here comes the “however” … HOWEVER, even including the 1-0 win 10 days ago in New York, the Mets are just 3-7 in deGrom’s last 10 starts vs. the Braves, including 1-3 in Atlanta. Not surprisingly, the reason the Mets have failed miserably to convert deGrom’s dominance into victories is a lack of run support: They scored three runs or fewer in nine of those 10 games, including two runs or less six times!
Well, sure enough, if you strip away Friday’s 10-run outburst in Atlanta (when New York blew a massive lead and fell 11-10), the Mets have tallied a whopping six runs in the other five games against the Braves this season. That includes losses of 14-1 (last Sunday), 7-1 (Saturday) and 4-0 (yesterday).
I certainly don’t expect New York to snap out of its offensive funk here against Braves right-hander Mike Soroka, who matched deGrom pitch for pitch in that 1-0 game July 24 but took a no-decision. Soroka rebounded with a victory over the Rays on Wednesday (allowing two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings), and he comes into this one with sensational career numbers against New York: 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts with a 25-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Bottom line: With deGrom, the Mets definitely have the edge on the mound tonight — but it’s not a HUGE edge. And in every other department, Atlanta is vastly superior and thus worthy of a shot at a plus-money price.
Monday's freebie on the Yankees and Phillies Over the total.
Yes, I know Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees and he is capable of pitching a no-hitter any time he steps on the rubber, but this totals release is more about the Yankees bats doing damage to Jake Arrieta and the Phillies pitching staff.
Philly has been idle since July 26th and I have a feeling they are going to get run over here by a New York attack fresh off scoring 19 runs in their 3 game sweep of the Boston Red Sox.
Aaron Judge is leading the attack and has homered in 5 straight games for the Bronx Bombers who have played 3 of their last 5 games Over the projected total.
Arrieta will finally get his first start of 2020 and each of his last 4 starts last season all played Over the total. He is 4-3 for his career against the Yankees with an ERA near 4.
We head to the ice for my free winner on Monday night, as I'm 9-4 with my complimentary NHL releases this season. And tonight I love the total in the late Western Conference seeding qualifier between the Chicago Blackhawks and Edmonton Oilers.
We saw the Blackhawks exhibit plenty of offense behind stellar leadership from their veterans. People seem to forget about those three Stanley Cups they have this century, and the tradition behind this organization. Chicago sure looked as if it felt the disrespect in everyone assuming the Oilers would be a cinch in this series, considering the Western Conference hub is in their city.
But just like in March with college basktball, we saw the 12-seeds topple the 5-seeds in the first game of the five-game series, the Blackhawks beating Edmonton, and in the Eastern Conference, the Montreal Canadiens taking out the Pittsburgh Penguins.
On to Game 2 of the best-of-five series.
And the Oilers have to respond with their best weapons, that being the most deadly linemates in the league, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, who ranked first and second, respectively, in NHL scoring this season.
Draisaitl (2019-20) and McDavid (2016-17 & 2017-18) have combined to win the Art Ross Trophy in three of the last four seasons, so it's no wonder they combined for six points in Game 1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also chipped in with three points, making it nine of 12 points in the game from three players.
Edmonton has more weapons than that, and it'll need to utilize them if Chicago carries momentum over from its 6-goal game into this one. The Blackhawks had eight players register at least one point, led by Dominik Kubalik's five (2 goals, 3 assists). And of the eight, Alex Debrincat had a goose egg. I'm thinking he's good for at least 1 and 1 tonight.
It's also important to note both teams had three power play goals, and special teams will again be key in driving the number high in this one.
Let's play Game 2 Over the posted total, as they'll come close to another double-digit night.
Aug 03 '20, 7:05 PM in 7h
MLB | Phillies vs Yankees
Play on: Phillies +270 at Mirage
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Monday Free Pick Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET - There is simply too much value here to ignore. Yes the Phillies are off a layoff and now have to face an ace pitcher in Cole. However, to be nearly a 3 to 1 underdog in this spot makes Philadelphia worthy of considering for a small investment in this one. The Phillies are managed by Joe Girardi who played some of his career with the Yankees plus managed them as well as recently as 2017. You know he really wants this game tonight. While the Phillies can't wait to get back onto the field after facing the Marlins amidst their covid-19 outbreak, the Yankees could get caught here still celebrating their huge win last night. Down 7-6 heading to bottom of the 8th against their long-time rival, the Red Sox, the Yankees rallied and ended up winning the game 9-7 courtesy of a 2 out 2 run bomb from Judge. A big game win and a big series win for the Yankees and they could be flat here. Then you look at this Phillies lineup and they have some big sticks in it and plus they have a true "gamer" in Jake Arrieta on the mound. Veteran starting pitcher, solid lineup, and catching the Yankees at the right time for an upset plus getting a very big underdog money line here...it all adds up to a nice spot for taking a "flyer" on the road dog in this one. Free Pick PHILADELPHIA
Aug 03 '20, 7:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Mets vs Braves
Play on: Mets -124 at betonline
** Monday Featured Free Play **
The MLB Comp play is on the NY. Mets at 7:10 eastern. The Mets have Degrom going and they are 19-7 as a road favorite dating to last season. The Braves counter with Soroka but have lost 4 of 5 as a dog and 5 of 7 on Mondays dating to last year. To tie in a nice league wide system we see that road favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a road dog loss where they scored 2 or less runs and had 10+ hits are 16-3 since 2004 vs an opponent off a home favored win by 2 or more runs. The Mets have been stranding runners all series and will look to avoid the sweep here. Make it the Mets. For the MLB Comp Play we will back the NY. Mets. RV- GC Sports.
Aug 03 '20, 8:05 PM in 8h
NBA | Spurs vs 76ers
Play on: Spurs +7 -105 at pinnacle
Spurs +7 (-105)
The 76ers have struggled to open the season. It has been highlighted with teammates arguing with each other during a game.
The Spurs are 2-0 in the bubble and look to stay hot. The 76ers are talented, but have failed to put everything together. If they limit Embiid's numbers, the Spurs will keep this one close.
Don't believe the 76ers are fine tuned enough to win by many in this one.
Take the Spurs spread in this one.
Good Luck, Cappers Club
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