Thursday 8/6/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:02 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #1

#3 Love Code	Price player was a meek 7th on debut for Rice, who is only about 8% with firsters, and now goes off the claim for Magner, who doesn't reach for them often, which says he liked what he saw her, and the drop in class, and the fact he goes turf-to-dirt, against a field there for the taking, says you better take notice; upset special.
#5 Warfront Fighter	Logical sort close two-back then pressed for the lead and was 4th last time when blinkers were added, so there's versatility here, which will help his chances, as will this outside attack post, plus he makes the third start of his form cycle, runs with the hood for the second time, and should offer a hint of value too; major player.
#4 Macho Jack	Stiff ML favorite was a good 2nd against much better last time at Keeneland, but that was in October, he hasn't been seen since, goes from Lynch to Rodriguez, and drops stiffly in class from 50k to 20k, so there are some real question marks here, at a short price, which means others entice a lot more; tread very lightly in this corner.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 3, and Magner knows what he's doing, so this move to the dirt might have a purpose, on a runner who should improve off the debut, and catches a field seemingly there for the taking, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win in the 8-1 range would knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #7

#4 Hungry Kitten	Homebred really moved forward in her dominant win against N1X foes last time, and while this is a step up in class, she has the look of the now horse, and one who had the light bulb go on last time, and it's not like this group is any great shakes; call right back.
#8 Mighty Scarlett	Tactical miss enters off a very good 2nd in a solid N2X, and a repeat of that would make her tough here, but this wide draw did her no favors, she will be overbet as well, and off such a big run, you wonder if she has some regression in her today; still, plenty scary.
#3 Dyna Passer	ML favorite was a decent 4th in a small Bel stakes going longer last time, so the drop in class and cutback will both conceivably help here, though she's no faster than anyone else here, has no real upside off 12 starts, and is another who will be ovebret; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The risk-reward will be there on the 4, as she enters off a rousing win that suggests she can play with this tougher group, and therefore anything remotely close to that 5-1 ML would warrant a play in all the slots, though you can get some added value by using her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since there's no one here to be scared off, and she might be poised to run right by this group in the lane like she did to the one last time.

Saratoga - Race #9

#6 Catorat	Price player had a very tough trip off the long layoff last time yet was still a close 5th, should only improve off that return from that over 10-month layoff, and meets a heavy favorite taking what could be a very dicey class drop; look out.
#5 Elusive Ruler	Aforementioned heavy favorite was running competitive enough in the N1X ranks and now dips in for 40k, and while it's impossible to know what goes on behind the scenes, this drop is an odd one, especially at this price; backwheel time.
#10 Swordsman	Dangerous sort hasn't been out since 2/19, so he may need this, but he's also a first-time gelding, and, more importantly, goes for Clement (19% off this long break) and Rosario, who have been printing money here this meet; do not ignore.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML is plenty of value on the 6, especially with the question marks surrounding the two favorites, so play him in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he may get overlooked, and budget players surely won't be able to cover him, which means a win would play a lot longer than his tote odds might suggest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 Hall Pass	Will need all of the pace to show up if he's going to have any chance here, but his finishing style might suit this spot well as he makes his third start off the bench.
#2 Bullets Child	Early burner only knows one way to go, and that's as fast as he can for as long as he can. The one to catch, but there are some other forward elements signed on in here.
#4 Fortunate Friends	Should get a good run of things from close range while Bullets Child and Uplifting battle it out early. First jump gets him home?
Race Summary	Hall Pass might offer a fair price with a potential quick pace in front of him, and he stepped forward nicely last out in that second try off the layoff.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#5 Somekindofmagician	Doesn't win often, but he's a reliable finishing type bringing good recent form to this. He fired fresh off the layoff when just missing last out, and something similar keeps him in the mix today.
#6 Mr. d'Angelo	No doubt the one to beat with a restricted stakes win to his credit last year, and he should be rolling late with a useful comeback under his belt.
#3 Railmaster	Only interested in this guy way underneath as he removes blinkers for this and might get a bit more relaxed type of trip. Second off the break offers some room to improve.
Race Summary	Somekindofmagician can move forward off the solid run last time out, and he can get a fairly significant jump on Mr. d'Angelo while offering a better price.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#2 My Friends Beer	Slight cutback might work in his favor to allow his finishing kick to bring a bit more punch, and there might be just enough pace in here to set things up for him.
#3 Prodigious Bay	Speedy player has a high ceiling but is going to have to hustle to find the front while cutting back today. He doesn't tend to finish with much enthusiasm, so a short price would be unappealing.
#1 Karan's Notion	Rolled a softer group last time out, and he's going to have to go for it early from the fence. Not impossible, but the price likely won't reflect the risk.
Race Summary	My Friends Beer can get a good run of things if a fair pace develops, and the price will probably be fair

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#5 INNER PEACE	Determinedly chased odds-on repeater, can turn tables.
#6 DARK POOL	Seeks three in a row at this level since the claim.
#3 GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE	In range of top pair while first-over but couldn’t keep up.
Race Summary	The main contenders reunite after squaring off a week ago. Inner Peace willingly pursued repeat winner Dark Pool around the track, starts inside of that rival today and will offer better value. Play 5-3 and 5-6 exactas.

Hoosier Park - Race #1

#2 PREMIER DELAINEY	Packs late wallop, back with own kind, gets the call.
#4 HIRED LUCK	Steps up off of win, can control pace again.
#5 I LIKE YOUR TAILOR	Rallied to win the last two times Oosting piloted.
Race Summary	Premier Delaney showed late interest in sire stakes last week after she rallied from the clouds and blew past the favorite to win in her race prior. She should get ample pace flow tonight, so play 2-4 and 2-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #11

#9 FULL VIEW	Rallied wide, flattened out late, use in all gimmicks at big price.
#7 GONNAHAVEONEMORE	Second to 3-to-5 winner through :56 back half.
#1 BETTOR IN CASH	Rallied into torrid pace to finish second, won half of starts.
Race Summary	Trying a longshot exacta box of 1-7-9. Full View gets top billing after he rallied wide from the far turn to mid-stretch before flattening out. He draws post 9, but he’s a big price and gets plenty of pace to run at.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:05 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 Assume Control	Ran an even third at this level last out in a much-improved effort and can benefit from a good pace here; likely to be dismissed at a good price.
#8 Thisismytime	Has the speed to be in the mix throughout as she stretches out to a mile; could be the one to catch.
#1 Bimini	Was second at this level in her first off the claim by Negrete; in her best form.
Race Summary	Assume Control will get a favorable pace setup and continued improvement could put her into the winner's circle.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#6 Tizzarunner	Was fourth in a much better spot last time and can roll from the back of the pace for the win.
#8 Stirling Drive	Tired after forcing the issue last time and can be a factor with a relaxed trip; talented enough to be a big player.
#9 Harbour Master	Was second in the Mecke following a win at this level two back; has the class to be a factor.
Race Summary	Tizzrunner get a favorable pace in front of him and improvement off his last race can bring a victory.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#7 Starship Apollo	Was fourth and claimed at this level last time out by the Gonzalez stable; is an 11-time winner over this strip and is well-spotted in this one.
#1 Tip Sheet	Tired last time and dropped to the bottom class rung; has a decent late move when he fires.
#2 Karen's Cove	Was second in his last two races and was on the board in his lave five; was claimed in his last one by Crichton and can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary	Starship Apollo seeks his first win since February and is set to get back to winning form; forced the issue last time and has a better chance today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:07 AM

Jack Brayman

My free play for Thursday is the Minnesota Twins on the road, laying the run line to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Since every MLB wager on a run line or total usually auto-lists pitchers, I want you to be sure you're listing just ONE pitcher specifically on your ticket when making this play, and that is Kenta Maeda. If he is not the pitcher of record when making your play, disregard this play. And if Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker is scratched, YOU HAVE TO RE-WAGER the game, and be sure Maeda is listed again. This play will stand no matter who goes for the Pirates as long as Maeda is throwing for Minnesota.

You have to admit, Maeda (2-0, 1.64) has been awfully impressive in his first two starts for the Twins. I would have loved to see him fire a no-no against Cleveland on Saturday, as he was dominant and damn-near untouchable in allowing just one hit, no earned runs and striking out six over six innings.

The right-hander has had a good command of his arsenal, mixing in pitches accordingly while striking out 12 over his first 11 innings of work this season.

Look for him to neutralize the Pirates early in this one, and lead the Twins to a win.

2* TWINS RUN LINE

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:08 AM

Chris Jordan

My complimentary winner for Thursday is a matinee special in Denver, where I'm playing the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. I know there is no overnight line on the game, but I'm not concerned with that and will advise you accordingly.

First of all, if you're being offered a price higher than -1.45, play this game on the run line.

Second, I want the pitcher of record in any case to be Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland (2-0, 1.50).

Something about pitching in his hometown has always been special for Freeland, a Denver-native. He is 10-2 in 15 starts at Coors Field, with a 2.40 ERA and looked fantastic in his home debut for 2020, keeping the Padres off the scoreboard for six innings while scattering two hits and striking out four.

Colorado has made it no secret it is excited for his progression this season, as he's tinkered with his delivery and enhanced his changeup in the repertoire.

With plenty of confidence on the hill now, and a successful start to the season, I like Freeland to keep the Giants at bay and lead Colorado to the win.

5* ROCKIES

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:08 AM

Jimmy Boyd
Aug 06 '20, 6:00 AM in 1d
PGA | Brendan Steele vs Erik Van Rooyen
Play on: Erik Van Rooyen -115 at 5dimes

1* Free Pick on Erik Van Rooyen -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:08 AM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Cubs @ Royals
TIME: 7:15 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:08 AM

VEGASSI
THURSDAY 8/6/2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Reds @ Indians
TIME: 6:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:09 AM

Hunter Price

Aug 06 '20, 11:30 AM in 4h
Soccer | FC Lahti vs HJK Helsinki
Play on: HJK Helsinki -415 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on HJK Helsinki -415

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:10 AM

Bobby Conn

Aug 06 '20, 4:45 PM in 9h
PGA | Jon Rahm vs Bryson DeChambeau
Play on: Jon Rahm -120 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Jon Rahm -120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:10 AM

Steve Janus

Aug 06 '20, 4:45 PM in 9h
PGA | Bryson DeChambeau vs Adam Scott
Play on: Adam Scott +130 at 5Dimes

1* Free Sharp Play on Adam Scott +130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 06:10 AM

Ricky Tran

Aug 06 '20, 10:38 PM in 15h
NHL | Flames vs Jets
Play on: UNDER 5½ -125

Ricky's 8* play on under 5.5
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The under is 4-1-1 in the Jets last six games as an underdog.
- The under is 3-1-1 in the Flames last five games as a favorite.
- The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The verdict: This looks like another inflated total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 07:45 AM

MLB public betting, line movement for August 6
Patrick Everson

Aaron Judge has been on fire so far in the shortened season, with seven homers through 11 games. Judge and the Yankees are -151 favorites against the Phillies on Thursday night.

MLB betting odds hit the board and drew some early dollars for Thursday’s matchups. The Yankees wrap up their four-game home set against the Phillies, while the defending American League champion Astros aim to avoid falling back to .500.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contests.

MLB line movement

Aaron Judge has already pounded out seven home runs through 11 games, helping the Yankees to a 9-2 start, including a split of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Phillies. New York opened -155 at Caesars books for a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch, with Philadelphia +145 late Wednesday evening, and the line moved to -151/+141 within a few minutes.

The Astros gave up two touchdowns Wednesday in absorbing a 14-7 shelling from the Diamondbacks. For Thursday’s 7:07 p.m. ET start, Houston opened -133 and dropped to -123 within about an hour Wednesday night, with Arizona +113. And the always-popular Cubs, out of the gate with a 9-2 record, opened -170 and dialed back a tick to -166 against the struggling Royals (+153) in another 7:07 p.m. ET game.

MLB public betting

In the Consensus, no team is getting more early love than the Cubs, landing 85 percent of the picks against the Royals. But the Yankees aren’t far behind at 82 percent against the Phillies.

Thursday 8/6/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 8/6/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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