Saturday 8/8/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2020, 08:04 AM

1/ST Race of the Week: Saturday's Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga

August 6, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 1 $300,000 BALLERINA STAKES AT SARATOGA
Saturday, August 8, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Travers Day at Saratoga features 5 stakes overall, headlined by the Midsummer Derby in Race 11. But the all-stakes Pick Five begins in Race 7 with the Grade 1 Ballerina, which may be the most appealing betting race of the group. Top national sprint fillies and mares from New York, Kentucky, Florida and California converge in a regional showdown.

Field Depth:
SERENGETI EMPRESS, BELLAFINA and defending champ COME DANCING all are Grade 1 winners. PINK SANDS is a Grade 2 winner, while COOKIE DOUGH and VICTIM OF LOVE have had success at the Grade 3 level. Mexican Group 1 winner LETRUSKA has a listed stakes victory in the US. This is a strong group.

Pace:
Expect a rapid and contended pace over the tough, 7-furlong trip. Regardless of sprint or route, SERENGETI EMPRESS is very fast from the rail, as is COOKIE DOUGH in the 2-hole and LETRUSKA from post 5. VICTIM OF LOVE figures to be pressing the issue as well. Look for BELLAFINA to get first run from mid-pack over the deeper closers COME DANCING and PINK SANDS. With this pace and distance, those off-the-pace have a solid chance.

Our Eyes:
COME DANCING and VICTIM OF LOVE exit a 1-2 finish in the Grade 3 Vagrancy in which the latter pulled a 27-1 upset while near the front throughout. Expect VICTIM OF LOVE to take more pace pressure here, and as the trip extends from 6-1/2 furlongs to 7 furlongs, those combining factors should shift the power to COME DANCING. Plus, COME DANCING is 2-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga, and has run some of her best BRIS late pace figures when going this very distance. At age 6, it's reasonable to wonder if she has the same acceleration as past years, however.

SERENGETI EMPRESS danced all the dances as a 3-year-old in 2019, winning the Kentucky Oaks before finishing on the board in races like the Acorn, Test at Saratoga, and the Breeders' Cup Distaff. She has raced 4 times this year, all in routes, and will turn back to the same trip as the Test. From the rail, expect Luis Saez to send her to her customary space at the front of the pack. SERENETI EMPRESS has won just 1 of 8 since capturing the Oaks, and that came on a sloppy track.

BELLAFINA was beaten favorite in SERENGETI EMPRESS' Kentucky Oaks score, and similarly to that one has just a single victory in her last 8 starts. Six times during that run she was favored, and lost 5 of those bids. She also finished behind SERENGETI EMPRESS in the Test over this track and distance in 2019. While Californian BELLAFINA has been popular at the windows, this might be the time she rises in price a bit, and the pace set-up should work in her favor. Let the price be your guide; she's appealing around 4-1 or more, but not trustworthy enough if less.

PINK SANDS might be the strongest closer in the group. The impeccably bred 5-year-old is by Tapit and out of Grade 1 Prioress winner Her Smile, third in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She was too close to a fast pace going 1-1/16 miles in the Grade 1 Phipps. Expect her to drop back and make one late run under Irad Ortiz Jr. in the Ballerina. Her 107 and 105 BRIS late pace figures in elongated, 1-turn races at Gulfstream this winter are the blueprint for her success. PINK SANDS has won over the track at Saratoga, taking a 6-1/2 furlong maiden sprint a few summers back.

COOKIE DOUGH was collared late in Gulfstream's Rampart over a 1-turn mile and has unmistakable speed. She got in front of SERENGETI EMPRESS last out in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn before tiring badly. She's trained with bullet works at Gulfstream and locally at Saratoga since that April 2-turn route. Expect her to come out breathing fire under John Velazquez and be a part of the pace.

LETRUSKA rounds out the field, and while a longshot to win this, she's a very important cog in the engine. In 5 starts since coming north from Mexico, she's made the lead easily in all 5, on dirt and turf, at Gulfstream and Oaklawn. Her speed appears to translate, and it's very fast on early pace numbers. Expect her and jockey Ricardo Santana to make them all work a bit harder early.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: BELLAFINA struggles to deliver the knockout punch, but she's 15-for-15 in the superfecta lifetime in races at 1-1/16 miles or shorter ... and she gets a good pace set-up to hit the board again.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: PINK SANDS should not be any better than fourth choice in a 7-horse field and she should come flying late with every chance to pull the minor upset.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $70 win PINK SANDS. $15 exacta box PINK SANDS and COME DANCING.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2020, 08:13 PM

‘Tiz Could Cry ‘Uncle’ in Travers

August 6, 2020 | By Johnny D
Last Saturday, at Del Mar, the Bob Baffert-trained Thousand Words took control of the Shared Belief Stakes and never let go. In his wake was the highly regarded and heavily favored Honor A. P. This Saturday, on the opposite coast, at Saratoga, a similar scenario could play out when Baffert saddles talented-but-untested Uncle Chuck against top-ranked sophomore Tiz the Law.

Granted, Tiz the Law probably is a better colt than Honor A. P. And Uncle Chuck is way more inexperienced than Thousand Words. But if speed is the great equalizer, then Saturday’s Travers could be a real horserace.

Tiz the Law’s owners are a bunch of Saratoga Springs locals who desperately want to win the Travers—crown jewel of the Spa and a major international race. The colt has trained flawlessly for this challenge under the careful tutelage of veteran Barclay Tagg. In short, all systems are ‘go!’

Funny thing, though, about this racing game: Sometimes things are just too perfect.

There’s little reason on paper to suggest that upstart Uncle Chuck could knock off multiple Gr. 1 winner Tiz the Law. But that ‘little reason’ is what interests this horseplayer. No horse in the Travers has Uncle Chuck-level speed. Expect Baffert’s colt to go to the lead and dare Tiz the Law to come and catch him. From this chair it’s a strictly a two-horse race.

Over a strip of dirt in Saratoga Springs, NY—right where the homestretch unfurls and the ‘real running’ commences--Uncle Chuck will have the Travers lead. That’s when Tiz the Law will come calling. Then and there, on that patch of brown history, where so many heavy favorites have cried ‘Uncle!’ that they have a name for it: Graveyard of Champions. It’s where Man o’ War, Gallant Fox, Secretariat, American Pharoah and a host of other luminaries all have lost when they really weren’t supposed to.

Saturday then, for a baker’s dozen’s-worth of seconds, we will lose ourselves in a struggle between two extremely talented and well-honed athletes, as they give what they’ve got, whatever they’ve got, stride-for-stride to the wire. And, no matter the outcome, as we watch we will disappear into the moment, engrossed in the struggle and forgetting the trying first seven months of 2020.

Below is one horseplayer’s horse-by-horse analysis of the Travers Stakes, including analysis of the Saratoga late Pick 4:

1. First Line (Noda/Cohen) - 30/1

This son of First Samurai stretched out to one mile and one-eighth at Saratoga July 29, and won his first race in four starts by a neck at 12-1 odds. It’s an awfully big step up from a narrow maiden win to the Travers winner’s circle…even without fans in attendance. Previously low-profile trainer Orlando Noda is having a great Spa meeting and thinks this guy fits in here. Noda must know something we don’t. We know that Noda horses are running out of their skins and that First Line is fit and likes the track.

2. Country Grammer (Brown/Ortiz Jr.) - 6/1

Kelsey’s brother (sorry, couldn’t help it) outlasted Travers foe #7 Caracaro last out by a neck in the Gr. 3 Peter Pan over one mile and one-eighth at the Spa. That was his first win since breaking maiden second time out at Aqueduct in November. He usually is positioned about 6 lengths off the leaders and is asked to gradually close from there. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has two wins in as many tries with this son of Tonalist and has been riding ferociously at Saratoga. Distance shouldn’t be a hindrance to this colt as both of his dirt-surface losses were at a mile and one-sixteenth. Both wins, though, came at one mile and one-eighth. Trainer Chad Brown explained that Country Grammer did not like the Belmont surface, so toss that effort.

3. Uncle Chuck (Baffert/Saez) - 5/2

Would it surprise you Saturday evening if trainer Bob Baffert saddles the winner of a Gr. 1 sophomore stakes race? Didn’t think so. Love the way this guy gobbles up mounds of ground with huge, high-kneed action. He’s fast, athletic and has been drilled to perfection by possibly the greatest 3-year-old conditioner ever. Still, Uncle Chuck has only had 2 races and still could be a bit green—he doesn’t quite have lead changes down pat. No matter. He’s a runner and will provide #6 Tiz the Law with a stout challenge. The son of Uncle Mo broke maiden by 7 lengths first-out going a mile at Santa Anita and returned to triumph by 4 in the Gr. 3 Los Alamitos Derby at a mile and one-eighth over Thousand Words, who upset highly ranked Honor A.P. Saturday in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar. Some pedigree analysts suggest that one mile and one-quarter might not be ‘Chuck’s ideal distance (dam’s side is speedy), but they’re not always correct. Look for ‘Chuck to use speed as a deadly weapon in here.

4. Max Player (Rice/Rosario) - 6/1

Off from February until June, Max Player closed to finish third, beaten more than 5 lengths by #6 Tiz the Law in the Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes. Before that the son of Honor Code had won 2 of 3 races, including the Gr. 3 Withers at Aqueduct. He would appreciate some pace up front to compliment his closing style. A mile and one-quarter seems within his reach. Trainer Linda Rice has had Max Player training at Belmont for this and isn’t concerned at all about him handling the Spa surface because he’s shipped well twice before--to Parx and to Aqueduct. Rice also said that she expects jockey Joel Rosario to keep ‘Max closer to the early pace than they were in the Belmont.

5. Shivaree (Nicks/Alvarado) - 30/1

With 12 lifetime starts, this son of Awesome of Course is the most experienced runner in the field. He’s got 3 wins, all in a row at Gulfstream Park, capped by the ungraded Limehouse at 6 furlongs in January. Last out, he showed speed and faded going one mile and one-eighth in the Gr. 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland. Shivaree did manage to finish second to Tiz the Law at 80-1 in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby. He’s got some speed and should be part of the early pace. It’s doubtful, though, that he’ll be able to hang around at the finish this time.

6. Tiz the Law (Tagg/Franco) - 1/1

This son of Constitution is the number one ranked player in the 3-year-old ranks and is the current favorite to win the delayed 2020 Kentucky Derby. He’s won 5 of 6 starts, including 3 out of 3 this year and has 3 Grade 1 victories on his resume. He prefers to settle on the outside, just off the early pace and to attack leaders with a decisive crushing blow off the turn. He’s trained well for this race and, in fact, has developed a great deal since breaking maiden here at the Spa almost exactly a year ago. If there is any knock on him it could be that he really hasn’t been tested yet. That could mean one of two things: That he’s so good that no one can approach him in the stretch or that he hasn’t faced a really talented foe. Silver Prospector got the better of Tiz the Law in the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club by a mere three-quarters of a length and Finnick the Fierce split those two to be second by a head, but Tiz the Law had some trouble in the race. This colt has been managed expertly and done little wrong in his career. He’s even money to win and, from this vantage point, only #3 Uncle Chuck can possibly defeat him in the Travers.

7. Caracaro (Delgado/Castellano) - 10/1

Just 3 starts under this one’s belt—a maiden win and a runner-up effort at Gulfstream Park, followed by a neck loss to #2 Country Grammer in the Gr. 3 Peter Pan going one mile and one-eighth at the Spa—suggest that there may be more improvement in this guy. He’ll need it. This is a huge step up in competition for him. The good news is that he’s fit and hasn’t ever finished worse than second. He’s got a bit of speed, so he should be up near the early pace, in the clear on the outside. The question remains: How good is he?

8. South Bend (Mott/Ortiz) - 15/1

This son of Algorithms came out running to begin his career and won 3 consecutive races, including the ungraded Street Sense at Churchill. Since September, he’s started at least once each month except in December, April and July. He’s been close in a few stakes races—third in Dania Beach at GP; third in the Gr. 3 Palm Beach, second in the ungraded Cutler Bay at Gulfstream and second in the Gr. 3 Ohio Derby—but hasn’t been able to finish fast enough to win in his last 8 starts. He comes from well back and would appreciate a hot early pace to aid his cause. Trainer Mott and jockey Jose Ortiz always command respect. Another in-the-money finish seems likely.

Bottom Line: #6 Tiz the Law will take some beating, that’s for sure. #3 Uncle Chuck will go to the front and attempt to take this field wire-to-wire. He just might do it, too.

Saratoga Race 9—The Waya—Grade 3

There’s not much separating these mares from one another so late Pick 4 players will need to make some difficult decisions.

1. Mrs. Sippy faced some tough competition last season and mostly ran well. She’s been away since the BC Filly & Mare. Outstanding trainer Graham Motion currently is in an 0-11 Spa slump. This 5-yearold mare may need an outing before attempting to return her best form which may have been in ’18 as a 3-year-old.

2. Beau Belle seems to be the only speed in a paceless marathon. That’s reason enough to keep her in the mix. She also has 2 wins in 3 tries at Saratoga and both were over ‘yielding’ turf. Don’t expect ‘yielding’ conditions Saturday but, as a result of recent storms, there should be some give in the ground she might enjoy. Use her on the pace at a price.

4. My Sister Nat is that rare Chad Brown-trained European import that hasn’t blossomed in the US. The 5-year-old is winless in 5 stateside races. She has been close, second twice, and Jose Ortiz has gotten to know her, so a win may be just around the corner. Also, her Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start, always a good sign.

5. Olympic Games has a pair of seconds in two recent starts. Her jockey and trainer are hot—Irad Ortiz and Christophe Clement—and they are successful together 21% in over 500 races, according to Thoro-Graph stats. She’s a still developing 4-year-old with 3 wins in 8 starts. Lots to like. She also should race from just off the pace, closer than some of the other contenders. Last out, she finished one and one-half lengths in front of #2 Beau Belle in the River Memories at Belmont July 12. She’ll be on our tickets.

7. Fool’s Gold is the Gr. 3 Waya defending champ and hails from the Chad Brown stable. She had a prep race for this last out and a return to last summer’s form makes her a factor in here. Also note that when she won this race last year, she stalked a pacesetter in second, opened up and just held on. A similar trip would work nicely in here.

Saratoga Race 10—The Test

The main handicapping question in here is obvious: Can Gamine repeat her incredible performance in the Acorn last out? By anyone’s ciphering the race was off the charts. Sometimes that’s not the best scenario for a 3-year-old filly. They are much more likely to react to huge efforts than colts are. Still, the sight of her romping home by more than 15 lengths through the Belmont stretch is difficult to ignore.

2. Perfect Alibi would need to run much faster than ever before to win this race and that’s unlikely. She was beaten 31 lengths by #5 Gamine last out. Still, note that she is 2 for 2 at Saratoga—Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes victories.

5. Gamine is the most obvious winner on the card. She exploded to win by more than 15 lengths last out in fast time. She’s got speed, is unbeaten and is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Hall of Fame jockey and Saratoga stalwart John Velazquez. What’s not to like? The only knock against her could be that she ran way too fast in her last race and that that performance may set her back physically. Her subsequent works have been solid, so there’s no clue there. Pick 4 players must consider that if she and Tiz the Law win, the sequence will not pay very much.

6. Venetian Harbor has speed and attempts to get her to carry that swiftness over more ground have not been completely successful. She shortens up in here, is drawn outside #5 Gamine and could pressure her a bit in the early going. She’s been favored in all 5 of her previous races—that streak ends Saturday. How much heat can she apply to #5 Gamine early? Will that matter? And if #5 Gamine does crack, will Venetian Harbor have enough left in the tank to carry on or will some other filly close to win the race? This game’s never easy…or, is it?

Saratoga Race 11—The Travers—Grade 1

See analysis above.

Saratoga Race 12—Maiden Special Weight—Fillies and Mares, Foaled in New York

Close out the late Pick 4 with this grab-bag sprint for state-bred maiden fillies and mares. There are a few ways to go in here and no single place to hang your hat.

2. Monificent didn’t fire first out in a turf race and returned to split the field in a dirt try at 30-1. So, why does trainer Bruce Levine employ the services of Jose Ortiz? They do well together-- 21% over 240 mounts--according to Thoro-Graph stats. The filly did show a bit of speed from the rail last out and returns in just two weeks. A reach, but interesting.

3. Blitchton Lady is the only 4-year-old in the field. She closed well last out over a sloppy track at 27-1. Her figure fits, but was it the slop that moved her up?

5. Misty Taste makes her first start for trainer Kelly Breen. She formerly raced poorly twice at Monmouth for Jason Servis. Irad Ortiz will ride and Breen combines with the top jock at a 15% clip from 48 mounts. She has two Spa bullets in her workout holster for this—both half mile breezes.

6. Sweat Sneak has done little in three starts and would be an easy toss. However, those starts came against ‘open’ maiden company at Ellis Park, Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. Two of those races were on turf. What’s also interesting is that her Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start. She’s been working at Churchill and has one good five furlong move in :59 4/5. She’s a wild card and should be a decent price off her form.

7. Tiny Magoo has raced for a state-bred $40k maiden tag twice, failing last out at even money. Her first out fits well in her figure-wise and she had trouble in her last. In a wide-open race she can be used.

9. Bankers Beast split the field in July at this level on turf. Trainer Mike Stidham is an excellent 21% second time out with this kind, according to Thoro-Graph. He’s also just 5% at Saratoga from 39 starters.

Bottom Line: This Pick 4 is tricky because it really hinges on how you feel about two strong favorites: #5 Gamine in the Test and #6 Tiz the Law in the Travers. If you like both of them to win, you probably shouldn’t play this Pick 4.

On the other hand, if you sense weakness in one or both of those favorites, you could end up making decent money without spending a lot—especially, if you go against both heavy favorites and they both lose. That’s unlikely, but not unprecedented.

Here’s a ticket that takes a stand against both heavy favorites--just in case the racing gods are in a silly Saturday mood. We’re looking for Gamine to react off her powerful last race and for Uncle Chuck to survive over Tiz the Law.

Suggested Saratoga $.50 Late Pick 4 ($45 total)

Race 9: 2, 5, 7
Race 10: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
Race 11: 3
Race 12: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9

Take care of each other. Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2020, 08:13 PM

Eddie Olczyk's Travers Day Spot Plays

August 6, 2020

Saratoga's Travers Stakes (Race 11) runs through the obvious favorites #6 Tiz the Law and #3 Uncle Chuck. I’ll try to get #2 Country Grammer to split them in some trifecta plays, hoping to net a $20-type return. Here are a few of the most appealing plays on the undercard.

Race 1

#1A Chocolate Bar (8-1 morning line)

He exited a live maiden race two starts back at Churchill where the winner won right back at Ellis Park in an allowance race. Forget his last Keeneland start from a bad post where he was a speed and fade-type. He needs to rate a little bit because there’s pace in this race to run into. Chocolate Bar appeals around 5-1 as part of an entry.

Race 3

#4 Ava K’s Girl (5-1 morning line)

In a race with plenty of early speed to stalk, expect jockey Manny Franco to follow the pace of #1 Violent Point and #3 Risky Mischief by saving ground and making one run down the lane. Ava K’s Girl is proven at the Spa, and I’m targeting about 6-1 odds.

Race 7

#6 Pink Sands (10-1 morning line)

Late-running Pink Sands will just let the inside speed of #1 Serengeti Empress and #2 Cookie Dough knock heads and hope the pace collapses. The race sets up for a finisher and Pink Sands should be running late. An 8-1 price would be nice.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2020, 11:57 PM

Red Dog Sports

Aug 08 '20, 11:30 AM in 10h
Soccer | FC Rostov vs Tambov
Play on: FC Rostov -112 at betonline

FC Rostov 2
Tambov 1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2020, 11:58 PM

Steve Janus

Aug 08 '20, 1:00 PM in 12h
Soccer | Cercle Brugge vs St. Liege
Play on: St. Liege -238 at betonline

1* Free Sharp Play on St. Liege -238

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2020, 11:58 PM

Rob Vinciletti

Aug 08 '20, 7:05 PM in 18h
MLB | Twins vs Royals
Play on: Twins -158 at 5Dimes

$$ Saturday Featured Free Play $$
The MLB Comp play for Saturday is on the Minnesota Twins at 7:05 eastern. The Twins are 14-2 as a road favorite of 140 or more and fit a 41-14 system based on last nights loss. Odorizzi goes for the Twins and he has won 4 straight as a road favorite. KC is 2-6 off a home dog win and has Duffy making his first home start taking on a Minny team that is 8-1 on the road if they scored 2 or less on the road in their last game. Look for Minnesota to get the win. For the MLB Comp play. Play on the Twins. RV- GC Sports.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:37 AM

ANDY LANG

Event: (7519) Martin Truex Jr at (7520) Kyle Busch
Sport/League: MOT
Date/Time: August 8, 2020 4PM EDT
Play: Martin Truex Jr 0.0 (-145)

The fade Kyle Busch tour continues as we cash another ticket against him last week when his car again couldn't get the setup right again and he blew a tire and wrecked into the wall. When gambling in NASCAR, you can hit some streaks by fading a driver who can't get it together and goes into a funk, or by hitting a guy who's in a hot streak, and in this matchup we get a guy in a funk, and a guy who might be starting one of his hot streaks. Kyle is struggling and only has 1 stage win since the restart, and Truex has averaged a top 3 finish the last 2 races showing me Truex is ready to rip off a string of good finishes. We've also seen a trend with Truex where he can get the setup right on his car during this stretch of no practices on tracks he likes, and he likes Michigan. Combined in both races last year at Michigan he averages the highest finishing position at 3.5, and Kyle has been open that the lack of practice has really hurt him since the restart. Michigan is a tough track to set up for, it's big with huge banked turns, so if Kyle and his team have struggled at other tracks setting the car up, this track might prove as difficult as ever. I'll happily take the driver with the momentum over the driver with the struggles.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:37 AM

GIANNI THE GREEK

Event: (24341) Justin Jaynes at (24342) Gavin Tucker
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: August 8, 2020 11PM EDT
Play: Gavin Tucker -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:37 AM

Kyle Marley

Tim Means by TKO (+400)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:37 AM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Orioles @ Nationals
TIME: 6:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:38 AM

Totals4U

Saturday's Free Selection: Baltimore/Washington under 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:38 AM

#1 Sports

Saturday's Free Play: Minnesota Twins - 170

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:38 AM

Lou Finocchiaro (GambLou)

Derrick Lewis -180

“I rarely take the favorite, but there’s value on Lewis at that price. The public seems to think Oleinik is going to be able to run around and buy enough time to tire the big man out, drag him to the floor and submit him.

“But the Russian is the much smaller man, well older (at 43) and, to top it all off, he has a glass jaw. He’s in there fighting the fourth-ranked heavyweight, a huge, powerful man who only has one trick, and that’s to hit you and knock you out.”

Finocchiaro also is banking on the bout to go under 1½ rounds (-110). He expects Lewis to end it quickly.

“I believe Lewis is going to rush right out there and try to knock Oleinik out. With two huge men in the smaller cage, engagement is going to be more prevalent because of the lack of space.”

Here are Finocchiaro’s other two best bets:

Holtzman (+165) over Dariush

Finocchiaro said his best bet on the card is Scott Holtzman over Beneil Dariush in a lightweight fight on the main card.

“Holtzman is an ex-hockey player who’s tough as nails, very athletic and really improving as a striker. In every UFC fight he’s had, he’s never been finished. Like Lewis, Holtzman must keep it on his feet. If Dariush gets it to the floor, he’ll have the advantage. But it’s my estimation that Holtzman is too strong and his footwork and striking are too refined.

Jaynes (+106) over Tucker

Justin Jaynes knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into his UFC debut in June. Finocchiaro likes Jaynes to make it two wins in a row against Gavin Tucker in their featherweight fight on the preliminary card.

“Tucker has been very inactive with three fights the last three years. He has a tendency to get hit. His success has been against relatively mediocre competition. Jaynes is the taller fighter, longer fighter and I believe the more explosive fighter. He’s coming off that impressive debut win and has got the momentum as well.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2020, 06:38 AM

MMA expert Casey Olson

MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

#4 DERRICK LEWIS 23-7 VS #10 ALEXEY OLEINIK 59-13-1

This will be an amazing sight to see. We have one of the most exciting knockout artists against one of the most technical grapplers in the sport and at heavyweight! Derrick Lewis, the former title contender, is coming in off of two consecutive wins, looking to stay the course and position himself for another future title shot once we get out of the log jam at the top of the division. Oleinik has professional fights across four decades, and dare I say he’s looked better than ever in his last two fights? Oleinik is still in great shape despite being 73 fights into his career. He also has a consecutive win streak, most recently knocking off Fabricio Werdum and Maurice Greene. With a win Saturday night, the “Boa Constrictor” shakes up the division in a big way.

On the feet, Oleinik is going to be in trouble against Lewis. He’s very hittable and has been known to take some damage to get inside to implement his submission work. This will cause some issues with the heavy shots from Lewis coming his way. He gets hit clean even once, and I could see him turtle up, which would secure Lewis a TKO. With five rounds to work, if he can avoid the grappling, he should wear down the 43-year-old Oleinik across the 25 minutes, eventually causing an error ending Oleinik’s night.

On the other hand, Lewis has been known to be a slow starter and let his opponents into fights before ultimately landing a big shot. His last two wins were razor close and against grapplers Ilar Litifi and Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis was taken down three times in each of those fights, yet was able to do enough on the feet to sway the judges. (Note going into this fight, Lewis has a 53% takedown defense) In my opinion, Oleinik is more of a threat on the mat than these two former opponents, so things could get very interesting if this one gets down to the mat. The Oleinik line continues to get hit, moving Lewis more and more in the direction I like to see by fight time. I have taken a position on the under 1.5 rounds as of write up at plus money. I believe with two very contrasting styles, we could see a very cautious chess match between the two, though the small cage will eventually force the engagement between the two. We will see one of two finishes in this one, in a fight that highly likely should end early. Lewis looks to be a great shape, and I know the guy above him in the ranks has been chirping his way a bit for taking this so-called “easy fight.”

Nothing easy about facing a guy with 59 victories and 46 of them by way of submission as a pro, though. I anticipate we see Lewis looking to score earlier than we have in the recent past. If we look into Oleinik’s last four fights, he was finished in one round by Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. After taking punishment and almost gassing after one round, beat a very green Maurice Greene (no pun intended), and most recently edged out a split decision against the shell of Fabricio Werdum, who was coming back after a two-year layoff and out of shape. Oleinik has four losses under the UFC banner, and three are by way of KO. On the other hand, Lewis has only lost via submission once, and that was to a former double champ, Daniel Cormier. That’s a big neck to get your hands around.

PREDICTIONS

- OLEINIK/LEWIS U1.5 ROUNDS +100
- DERRICK LEWIS -200 (look via TKO/KO -135)

OTHER WAGERS

MAKI PITOLO 13-5 VS DARREN STEWART 11-5

“Coconut Bombz" vs. "The Dentist." You know what that means. Maki Pitolo has looked good at 185, but this will be a step up in competition for him. Darren Stewart is a lackluster 3-3 outside of the UK, but this is his to lose, in my opinion, and I don’t think he will. Stewart has proven his durability and will be able to stand up with Pitolo and make this one war. He’ll also have more speed and power, and just might be able to finish Pitolo. Pitolo is coming off of a TKO win against Charles Byrd in June, where Byrd was set to retire post-fight. Byrd gave a great effort for one round then was pretty much ready to call it a day. Stewart won’t be doing the same. Expect a war.

PREDICTION: DARREN STEWART -155

#14 BENEIL DARIUSH 18-4-1 VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN 14-3

No bathroom break fight here—tons of skill in this one. Dariush looks to be back on track with four wins in a row, including finishes in his last three against some tough opponents. Holtzman is tough himself, and has never been finished in 17 fights, and is coming in to probably his toughest test to date. Dariush just has more ways to win here. I believe he’s more technical everywhere, coupled with some power, as we saw against Drakkar Klose in March, resulting in a first-time knockout. Holtzman is getting up there in age (36) but always comes in ready, in shape, and ready to go to war. He has one path to victory here, and it via KO. I got Dariush.

PREDICTION: BENEIL DARIUSH -160

YOUSSEF ZALAL 9-2 VS PETER BARRETT 11-3

Peter Barrett is making his UFC debut here and coming down from 155 to take on Youssef Zalal, who’s been very busy this year (3rd fight scheduled in 2020). Zalal is a very young prospect and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Barrett has been inactive for the last year, with two fights being canceled this year, and is finally getting his much-anticipated shot under the bright lights. Zalal should be better everywhere. Barrett’s strength is on the feet with his striking, so I expect Zalal to do what we didn't see against Jordan Griffin in his last match, and that is taking this one to the mat to expose Barrett’s limited grappling ability. Zalal is great with the chokes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get another one here.

PREDICTION: ZALAL via SUB +400

FULL MAIN CARD & PRELIM PREDICTIONS

DERRICK LEWIS defeats ALEXEY OLEINIK
OMARI AKHMEDOV defeats CHRIS WEIDMAN
DARREN STEWART defeats MAKI PITOLO
JULIJA STOLIARENKO defeats YANA KUNITSKAYA
BENEIL DARIUSH defeats SCOTT HOLTZMAN
KEVIN HOLLAND defeats JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
LAUREANO STAROPOLI defeats TIM MEANS
NASRAT HAQPARAST defeats ALEX MUNOZ
WELLINGTON TURMAN defeats ANDREW SANCHEZ
JUSTIN JAYNES defeats GAVIN TUCKER
YOUSSEF ZALAL defeats PETER BARRETT
IRWIN RIVERA defeats ALI AL QAISI

UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET SUMMARY

Fight card predictions overall: 229-128-7 (65%)

Targeted matchups (wagers): 90-39-3 (70%)

Saturday 8/8/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 8/8/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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