Monday 8/17/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 06:04 AM

KEVIN DOLAN

Event: Tianjin Teda at Hebei CFFC
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: August 17, 2020 8AM EDT
Play: Hebei CFFC ML (-119)

PLAY: HEBEI CFFC ML -118

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 06:04 AM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE NHL PICKS
Bruins @ Hurricanes
TIME: 8:00 PM EST
PICK: Bruins -127

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 06:42 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Finger Lakes - Race #2

#1 Blue Skies Forever	Bel invader was facing tons better on the big circuit, and while he was getting beat up, his figures play here, there's pace too, and he could offer a hint of value as well; mows them all down.
#5 Preternatural	Class riser turned the Bel-to-FL last time, when he improved in his first for Conway, but the waters are deeper here, he owns no major edge on paper, and will be overbet too; tying to beat.
#7 Shanghai Noon	Closer was a decent 3rd in the slop last time and is another who should appreciate what looks like an honest pace here, and he goes for Acquilano, who is having a harp meet; worth a look.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML seems like plenty of value on the 1, who will relish the class drop, and the race flow too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk4 as well, as a win in his FL return would add plenty of value to the sequence.

Finger Lakes - Race #5

#5 Escape to the Moon	Price player was a useful 4th in his return last time, should only build off that, and if he gets back to those runs that ended 2019, he'll have a huge say here; upset special.
#7 Stone Heart	The one to beat was in too tough off the layoff, so the drop, and that tightener, should have him primed here, and those first six for Lecesse were heday stuff; figures tough.
#3 For Good Reason	Versatile sort has run well from on and just off the pace, has been working well for this return, and goes for a Barrow barn that is a solid 16% off this long break; in the mix.
Race Summary	There's no reason the 5 should be 6-1, but even 4-1 or so makes him playable, especially since he goes second-off the layoff and figures a much tighter runner here, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, as he fits nicely with a group like this, and won't have to improve much to have a big say here.

Finger Lakes - Race #6

#1 What the Luck	The speed dueled then held to be 2nd in his local bow, now goes to Conway, who is 29% with newcomers, and the hood added says he's a Lone F here; come and catch the pick.
#5 Bustin to Be Loved	Stiff class dropper will really like this easier group, as he's never been in this light, but his lack of early speed and expected underlaid price aren't an enticing combo; second-best.
#6 Mrs Robin E	Jeremiah runner will be bet hard off the fast neck 2nd when last seen, but thatwas in November, so he could need this, for a barn just 11% off the extended layoff; tabbing today.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there doesn't look like there's a lot here to keep the pick from making the front and setting his own tempo, especially with the hood going on, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as he looks poised to drag this group around the track.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 06:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #2

#8 Coach Machen	Looks like this race is very much there for the taking, and this filly turned in a nice effort in her turf debut last out. She'll add Lasix today while trying two turns -- something she's bred to handle.
#6 West Virginia Pam	Has really put things together with that form reversal for the new team, and a repeat her only turf try at Belterra would make her tough here.
#5 Treasured Bond	Recent form is decent enough, but not completely sure she's going to thrive over the new footing. Can't count her out entirely, but thinking she'll find a couple of these too good for her.
Race Summary	Coach Machen took to the turf nicely last out and will try to handle the added ground, and this is a very soft spot even for the WV-bred level.

Mountaineer - Race #6

#7 Kings Highway	Steps up to face winners for the first time, but he does so off a trio of pretty nice races including a romp to graduate last out. He draws well to track the pace from here.
#1 Zafir	Rail draw could be a little bit tricky, and that's all that keeps this guy from being on top. His local debut was super sharp last out, and something similar would do the trick if he can find a trip from the fence.
#5 Right the Wrong	Owns a couple of decent back tries over the local footing, but he's a chase-and-fade type, so he's plenty dicey inside the final furlong again.
Race Summary	Kings Highway graduated in style last out and gets a good post to track the splits. He's not out of the question while trying winners for the first time.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#1 Spice It Up	She just missed in the slop last out after a trio of decent Kentucky tries, and her recent baseline effort would probably be enough to handle these.
#2 Team Freedom	Reliable type tends to run her race, but she also settles for plenty of underneath awards after good trips. Underlay?
#3 Sing Me Sweet	Local maiden win was pretty sharp before that CT clunker, but she has bounced out of that with a bullet work, so she might be sitting on something better.
Race Summary	Spice It Up has been in with some pretty tough groups compared to the rest of these, and something like her most recent would probably do the job today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 06:44 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #1

#1 Cornbread Kingdom	Buried an off-the-turf group in the slop last time out and fits well in his first against winners; was in very good maiden races in the first five races of his career and the success last time gave him a much-needed taste of the winner's circle.
#4 Hidden Talent	Comes out of allowance races at Oaklawn and Churchill and showed some speed in the latter. A threat to get on the front end and should benefit from the class drop.
#2 Gum Tree Lane	Ran fourth going longer vs. better at Churchill Downs will probably get a favorable pace to chase.
Race Summary	Cornbread Kingdom dropped out of maiden specials prior to his last two and his form turned around. He was an easy winner last time and can be tough right back.

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#4 C J's Empire	Taking a change with a long price in her first turf attempt; well bred for the turn and should be able to handle the distance. Was fourth in a dirt sprint last time and should appreciate this chance.
#1 Babes On a Budget	Fired late and just missed on the main track last time and has threatened several times on the turf; late surge is a possibility.
#3 Misty Express	Drops out of a stakes race and should improve with the step down the class ladder; could dictate the pace.
Race Summary	C J's Empire is bred for turf and distance and finally get a chance at both; will likely have a big price and could cash this mostly distance-challenged group.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#3 Never Even Called	Set the pace and was caught late last time; the drop in class should help him.
#5 Witch Doctor	Was third the last time he was on the Indiana Grand turf and can get an effective stalker.
#10 Channel Island	Comes in from Saratoga, where he badly beaten in a route allowance; takes a big drop and gets hot-riding Parker.
Race Summary	Never Even Called can be an effective pacesetter and should be able to kick in late in the game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 10:31 AM

NBA public betting, line movement for August 17
Patrick Everson

Luka Doncic and the seventh-seeded Mavericks take on the No. 2 Clippers on Monday night in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series. PointsBet USA opened Los Angeles -6.5 and moved to -6.

NBA betting odds are on the board and taking action as postseason play gets underway. Monday brings with it four games in the NBA playoffs, including a Western Conference nightcap of Mavericks-Clippers, and the defending champion Raptors host the Nets.

PointsBet USA provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Monday’s last game might be the most intriguing, with Luka Doncic and the seventh-seeded Mavericks facing Kawhi Leonard and the No. 2 Clippers. PointsBet USA opened Los Angeles -6.5 Friday evening and quickly moved to -6, where the point spread remained Sunday night for this 9 p.m. ET Game 1 clash.

The third-seeded Celtics opened as 6.5-point favorites Friday morning for Game 1 against the 76ers. By Friday afternoon, that line had dialed down to Boston -5.5, where it remained as of Sunday evening for a 6:30 p.m. ET tipoff. Philadelphia will lean heavily on Joel Embiid, with Ben Simmons (knee) out indefinitely.

Defending NBA champion Toronto is also in action, with the second-seeded Raptors facing No. 7 Brooklyn. PointsBet USA initially pegged the Raptors 10-point favorites Friday, then moved to 9.5 Saturday for this 4 p.m. ET contest.

NBA public betting

In the Consensus, which is often a good indicator of public betting, all three of the aforementioned games were seeing two-way support Sunday night. The Clippers were landing 59 percent of early picks against the Mavs and the Celtics 58 percent against the Sixers.

But Nets-Raptors was a bit of a surprise, with near-double-digit-‘dog Brooklyn drawing 56 percent of early Consensus picks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 10:32 AM

751UTAH -752 DENVER
UTAH is 18-7 ATS (10.3 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

755PHILADELPHIA -756 BOSTON
PHILADELPHIA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

757DALLAS -758 LA CLIPPERS
DALLAS are 34-17 ATS (15.3 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

Tuesday, August 18

761ORLANDO -762 MILWAUKEE
ORLANDO is 21-5 ATS (15.5 Units) after scoring 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

767PORTLAND -768 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

769MIAMI -770 INDIANA
INDIANA is 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.

771OKLAHOMA CITY -772 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) after 3 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 5 or more in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 10:33 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, August 17

Utah @ Denver

Game 751-752
August 17, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
112.241
Denver
120.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 8 1/2
214
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
218
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Under

Brooklyn @ Toronto

Game 753-754
August 17, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
120.114
Toronto
122.594
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
238
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 9 1/2
222
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+9 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Boston

Game 755-756
August 17, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
122.838
Boston
121.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
235
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 5 1/2
218 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+5 1/2); Over

Dallas @ LA Clippers

Game 757-758
August 17, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
116.000
LA Clippers
125.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 9 1/2
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 6
230 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-6); Under

Tuesday, August 18

Orlando @ Milwaukee

Game 761-762
August 18, 2020 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
110.311
Milwaukee
124.777
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 14 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 11 1/2
224 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-11 1/2); Under

Miami @ Indiana

Game 769-770
August 18, 2020 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
117.276
Indiana
119.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 2
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+3 1/2); Over

Oklahoma City @ Houston

Game 771-772
August 18, 2020 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma City
118.500
Houston
112.421
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 6
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
225
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-1 1/2); Under

Portland @ LA Lakers

Game 767-768
August 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
120.952
LA Lakers
115.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 5 1/2
249
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 5 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+5 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 10:33 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, August 17

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UTAH (44 - 28) vs. DENVER (46 - 27) - 8/17/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 96-75 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BROOKLYN (35 - 37) vs. TORONTO (53 - 19) - 8/17/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 40-30 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games this season.
TORONTO is 30-21 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 67-45 ATS (+17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 33-19 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 32-21 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BROOKLYN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BROOKLYN is 68-49 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-6 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (43 - 30) vs. BOSTON (48 - 24) - 8/17/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 40-28 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 102-81 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-6 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (43 - 32) vs. LA CLIPPERS (49 - 23) - 8/17/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-31 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 62-39 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 86-69 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 231-183 ATS (+29.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 71-50 ATS (+16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 70-56 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 242-297 ATS (-84.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 6-4 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-3 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Tuesday, August 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (33 - 40) vs. MILWAUKEE (56 - 17) - 8/18/2020, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
ORLANDO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 95-71 ATS (+16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 79-59 ATS (+14.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 84-62 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 74-56 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-4 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (36 - 39) vs. LA LAKERS (52 - 19) - 8/18/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 32-40 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 133-170 ATS (-54.0 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
PORTLAND is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 142-106 ATS (+25.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-4 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (44 - 29) vs. INDIANA (45 - 28) - 8/18/2020, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
INDIANA is 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 8-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (44 - 28) vs. HOUSTON (44 - 28) - 8/18/2020, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 111-74 ATS (+29.6 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 55-30 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 43-28 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 20-33 ATS (-16.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 8-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 10:33 AM

NBA

Monday, August 17

Trend Report

Utah @ Denver
Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Utah's last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games when playing at home against Utah

Brooklyn @ Toronto
Brooklyn
Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Toronto is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games

Philadelphia @ Boston
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 14 games
Boston
Boston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Dallas @ LA Clippers
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Clippers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 12:28 PM

Game 1 Odds: Jazz vs. Nuggets
Michael Crosson

The first round of the NBA playoffs will tip off Monday afternoon with a Western Conference showdown between the (6) Utah Jazz and the (3) Denver Nuggets.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 17, 2020
Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - Jazz vs. Nuggets

Line Movements

Denver opened as a three-point favorite for this game but the early money came in on the Jazz as we saw this line fall to 2.5 Saturday night, but as of Sunday morning, the line had bounced back up to -4.5 for the Nuggets.

The total for this contest opened at 220.5, but since that line has been on the board, it has steadily plummeted all the way down to 215.5, with all the early action coming in on the under.

Point-Spread Odds

Nuggets -3
Jazz +3

Money-Line Odds

Nuggets -160 (Bet $100 to win $62.50)
Jazz +140 (Bet $100 to win $140)

Total Odds

Over 217.5
Under 217.5

Series Odds

Nuggets -200
Jazz +175

The Utah Jazz won't have point guard Mike Conley in the lineup on Monday as the point guard has left the NBA Bubble. (AP)

Inside the Betting Stats

Overall

Utah: 44-28 SU, 39-33-2 ATS
Denver: 46-27 SU, 34-36-3 ATS

Bubble

Utah: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Denver: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS

The Utah Jazz enter Monday afternoon’s contest holding a 3-5 record in the bubble (0-5 against playoff teams), with their only wins coming against the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Spurs.

Denver has also struggled in Orlando, tallying a 3-5 record as well, but at least have two wins over playoff teams. That includes their double-overtime win over the Jazz.

With the exception of Donovan Mitchell at times, the Jazz have not been good offensively in Orlando. The club went under their season average of points per game (111.34) in five out of their eight contests in regulation (101 points before OT vs DEN).

The Nuggets haven’t had the same struggles offensively, but their defense has suffered without the help of Gary Harris and Will Barton, causing their game totals to go over in all eight contests in Orlando.

The Jazz have covered +4.5 in two out of their their losses to the Nuggets this season, and the 'under' has hit in two of three in this series with the only 'over' coming in a double-overtime game.

Over-Under Total Notes

Totals Report

Overall

Utah: 38-34 O/U
Denver: 38-34-1 O/U

Bubble

Utah: 5-3 O/U
Denver: 8-0 O/U

The over may be 8-0 so far for the Nuggets inside the bubble, but in their their matchups this season with Utah, there has been an average of 203 total points per game scored in regulation, keeping the total under in 2 out of 3 games.

The only reason their most recent matchup in Orlando soared over, is because that game carried into double-OT, but even that game was deadlocked at 105-105 at the end of regulation, which would’ve been a 3rd consecutive under between these teams.

The over is 8-0 for Denver inside the bubble, which is way less eye-popping when you factor in the 2 OT games, and who they have played against in Orlando so far.

The Utah defense poses a difficult challenge for the Nuggets offensively, as they tend to try to run the majority of their offense through the big man, Jokic, constantly putting the ball right in front of a 2-time DPOY to swat away, bringing down the point totals in these matchups.

Jazz vs. Nuggets Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 8, 2020: Denver (+1) 134 vs. Utah 132, Over 222.5
Feb. 5, 2020: Denver (+10) 98 at Utah 95, Under 214.5
Jan. 30, 2020: Denver (+3) 106 vs. Utah 100, Under 215.5

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets completed a 3-0 regular season series sweep of the Utah Jazz in their (134-132) double-OT win in the bubble last Monday.

Although Denver owns a perfect record against Utah, they are just 1-2 ATS in those games, their one cover coming in a 106-100 win back in January. Donovan Mitchell gave the Nikola Jokic and company everything they could handle in their most recent matchup with Denver, tallying 35 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists in the OT loss.

Jokic and Porter Jr. were able to get it done for Denver however, combining for 53 points and 22 rebounds in the victory. The real X-factor in this matchup is how Utah utilizes their perennial DPOY candidate, Rudy Gobert, against the Joker.

So far, Jokic has gotten the best of him, averaging 29.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists against the Jazz this season. Look for the defense in that matchup to be the most intense it has been all season between these teams, and for these 2 big men to neutralize each other to an extent.

Key Injuries

Denver

Gary Harris: Hip – Out
Will Barton: Knee – Out
Vlatko Cancar: Foot – Out

Utah

Mike Conley: Personal – Out

The Jazz will be without starting point-guard, Mike Conley, for the first few games in the Nuggets series, as he left the bubble for the birth of his son, and will have to go through the proper quarantine procedures before he is allowed to return to play.

The Nuggets were hoping to get Gary Harris and Will Barton back. They have not appeared in the bubble yet, but have been ruled out by Denver head coach Michael Malone for Monday’s playoff matchup with the Jazz.

If Barton is unable to go again, look for Porter Jr. to go over his total stats line as he won’t have to deal with Gobert nearly as much defensively, and should dominate a lot of the Denver offensive volume.

I expect Donovan Mitchell to go over his assists + rebounds line as he should have the ball in his hands much more without Conley there to drown out his usage.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 12:29 PM

Game 1 Odds: Nets vs. Raptors
Michael Crosson

One of the most anticipated NBA Playoff seasons of all-time will kick off on Monday in Orlando, Florida as 16 teams square off in the NBA Bubble. In the second Eastern Conference matchup on Monday's slate, the No. 2 seeded Toronto Raptors will start their title defense against the No. 7 Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 of their opening series.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 17, 2020
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - Nets vs. Raptors

With no Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in the bubble, there is no doubt the Nets are longshots coming into this series, opening as 10.5-point underdogs in their opening matchup, and +1800 series underdogs against Toronto. Most books have shifted the line down to -9.5 for the Raptors, indicating some early action from the public in favor of Brooklyn in the first game of this Eastern Conference Round 1 matchup.

The total (over-under) for this contest opened at 224 points, but the public has leaned towards the under in this game, expecting a spike in defensive effort across the league in the first round of the playoffs, bringing the line down to 222.

Point-Spread Odds

Raptors -9.5
Nets +9.5

Money-Line Odds

Raptors -500 (Bet $100 to win $20)
Nets +400 (Bet $100 to win $400)

Total Odds

Over 222
Under 222

Series Odds

Raptors -8000
Nets +1800

Inside the Betting Stats

Overall

Brooklyn: 35-37 SU, 37-35 ATS
Toronto: 53-19 SU, 40-29-3

Bubble

Brooklyn: 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS
Toronto: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS

With Devin Booker and the Suns going undefeated in the bubble, the Nets success in the bubble has been somehow overshadowed, Brooklyn sneaking off to a 5-3 start in Orlando, including wins over the Bucks and Clippers, and a 6-1 record ATS in their last seven games.

Dating back to March 3rd of this year, the Raptors are 11-1 in their last 12 games SU and are 7-1 ATS inside the bubble. The under is 5-2-1 for the Raptors in Disney’s Wide World of Sports, and I believe that trend is something to keep an eye on throughout these playoffs, as the Raptors have ranked 1st in defensive rating in the NBA reseeding games (102.7).

Brooklyn, on the other hand, has ran at the 8th fastest pace out of the 22 teams in the bubble (103.25), ranking right behind the Pelicans (7th – 103.57) who typically run at an incredibly fast pace.

Over-Under Total Notes

Totals Report

Overall

Brooklyn: 36-36 O/U
Toronto: 38-39-3 O/U

Bubble

Brooklyn: O/U
Toronto: 2-5-1 O/U

So far in Orlando, the Nets have run at a faster pace than they typically run at, and the Raptors have run at a slower pace than they typically run at, making this OU a tough play. In Brooklyn and Toronto’s previous four meetings this season, the OU has split 2-2.

Toronto has played tremendous defense inside the bubble, and if the Nets are unable to hit a large volume of perimeter shots, this game could get ugly quick, making it a weird one for volume statistics.

The total OU for the games in this series aren’t intriguing to me until I see how efficient the Nets offense can be against Toronto playing full-throttle, playoff defense.

Brooklyn Under 106.5 total points is an intriguing line, but I’d stay away from game totals in this series for at least one game.

Nets vs. Raptors Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

December 14, 2019: Toronto 110, Brooklyn 102
January 4, 2020: Toronto 121, Brooklyn 102
February 8, 2020: Toronto 119, Brooklyn 118
February 12, 2020: Brooklyn 101, Toronto 91

The Nets have squared off with Toronto 4 times this season, and in those contests the Nets have gone 1-3, covering a 9.5 point spread twice. Without Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn has really struggled to get things going offensively against the Raptors, averaging just 105.8 ppg in matchups with Toronto this season.

Brooklyn has been the beneficiaries to key players taking precautionary measures with their health and minutes thus far, recording a 5-3 record in Orlando, but that mentality goes out the window on Monday in the first round of the playoffs as I expect the Nets to struggle on offense similarly to how they did against the Raptors for the majority of their contests this season.

Toronto looked like the best team in the bubble, aside from their 122-100 loss to the Celtics a little over a week ago, and will look to make it 8-1 in Orlando, and 4-1 against Brooklyn this year in their tilt on Monday afternoon.

Caris LeVert has been great for the Nets inside the bubble, tying a season-high 37 points in his most recent game against Portland, only to be matched with his 37-point outing in the Nets heartbreaking 118-117 loss in Toronto. LeVert has scored 20+ points in 4 out of the 5 games inside the bubble when he has received a full slate of minutes. Look for LeVert to go over his total points line as the Nets will most likely look to their scoring-guards to try to keep up with this high-powered Toronto team.

Key Injuries

Brooklyn

Jamal Crawford: Hamstring – Out

Toronto

OG Anunoby: Knee – Game Time Decision (GTD)
Serge Ibaka: Knee – GTD

Jamal Crawford will miss Monday’s game 1 contest against Toronto on Monday, which doesn’t mean a ton in the grand scheme of things, considering he contributes just 5 points and 3 assists per game off the bench for Brooklyn, but it does mean there is one less guard in the rotation for an already shallow Nets backcourt, adding to Dinwiddie and LeVert’s upside in volume for props.

OG Anunoby and Serge Ibaka both sat out with knee injuries during the Raptor’s victory over the Nuggets in their final seeding game in the bubble. Both guys are expected to be ready to go for th
e Raptors game 1 tilt with the Nets on Monday, but are still worth keeping an eye on throughout the day as they are listed as game-time decisions for the contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 12:30 PM

Game 1 Odds: 76ers vs. Celtics
Kevin Rogers

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 17, 2020
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - 76ers vs. Celtics

Point-Spread Odds

Celtics -5.5
76ers +5.5

Money-Line Odds

Celtics -230 (Bet $100 to win $43)
76ers +190 (Bet $100 to win $190)

Total Odds

Over 219
Under 219

Series Odds

Celtics -400
76ers +330

The Celtics look to bounce back against the 76ers after losing three of four meetings this season. (AP)

Inside the Betting Stats

Overall

Philadelphia: 43-30 SU, 31-38-4 ATS
Boston: 48-24 SU, 41-27-4 ATS

Bubble

Philadelphia: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS
Boston: 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS

The Atlantic division race has been a tight one all season and was the only division in the league to send four teams to the playoffs. The defending champion Raptors eventually pulled away for the division title, while the Nets overcame injuries to finish as the seventh seed. In between, the long-time rivals from Boston and Philadelphia are first round opponents and one will get knocked out in this best-of-seven series.

The Celtics finished as the third seed in the Eastern Conference in their first season with Kemba Walker as their point guard. Boston has won its first round series in each of the last three postseasons, but face the 76ers in the opening round for the first time since 2002 (won by the Celtics, 3-2).

The 76ers posted the best home record in the league at 29-2 prior to the shutdown, as Philadelphia struggled on the road by going 10-24. Philadelphia had a shot at the fourth or fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but the loss of Ben Simmons to a knee injury early during bubble play moved the Sixers down to the sixth seed.

Boston's most notable wins inside the bubble came against Toronto, 122-100 and a 128-124 victory over Portland. The Celtics built a 40-point lead in the blowout of the Raptors, while blowing a huge lead to the Blazers before holding onto the narrow victory. The Celtics lost the opener to the top-seeded Bucks, 119-112, while also falling to a beat-up Heat squad, 112-106 as five-point favorites.

Philadelphia started 1-5 ATS in the bubble, which included close losses to Indiana and Portland. The only win and cover in a meaningful game came against Orlando on August 7 in a 108-101 triumph as five-point favorites, while the 76ers blew out the Rockets in the finale as Philadelphia had already locked up the sixth seed.

Over-Under Total Notes

Totals Report

Overall

Philadelphia: 39-33-1 O/U
Boston: 34-37-1 O/U

Bubble

Philadelphia: 5-3 O/U
Boston: 4-3-1 O/U

Boston jumped out to a 3-0-1 'over' mark in the bubble before cashing the 'under' in three of the final four games. In the first four bubble contests, the Celtics allowed an average of 117.5 points per game, but Boston gave up 105.5 points per game in the final four games, which included 119 points against Orlando in an overtime victory.

Philadelphia was a streaky total team in the bubble as the 76ers easily hit the 'over' in the first two games against Indiana and San Antonio. However, the Sixers cashed the 'under' in back-to-back wins over the Wizards and Magic, before a 3-1 'over' run to close things out. Philadelphia eclipsed the 121-point mark in five bubble games, compared to reaching that mark only four times in the previous 32 contests pre-pandemic.

76ers vs. Celtics Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Feb. 1, 2020: Boston (+1.5) 116 vs. Philadelphia 95, Under 212
Jan. 9, 2020: Philadelphia (+1) 109 vs. Boston 98, Under 218
Dec. 12, 2019: Philadelphia (+1) 115 at Boston 109, Over 212.5
Oct. 23, 2019: Philadelphia (-5.5) 107 vs. Boston 93, Under 215.5

The 76ers had the Celtics' number this season by capturing three of four regular season matchups. It started on opening night at Wells Fargo Center in late October as the Sixers cruised to a 107-93 victory as Philadelphia limited Boston to 37% shooting from the floor. Walker was held to 4-of-18 shooting from the floor and 12 points in his Celtics' debut, while all five Sixers' starters scored in double-figures, led by Simmons' 24-point output.

In the next matchup at TD Garden in Boston in mid-December, the Celtics once again led after the first quarter, but the Sixers rallied back and pulled away for a 115-109 win as short underdogs. Joel Embiid dominated the Celtics with a 38-point, 13-rebound performance, as the Sixers shot 50% from the floor and 50% from three-point range (14-of-28).

Philadelphia overcame a deficit after the first quarter for the third straight meeting as the Celtics led, 35-26 on January 9. The Sixers chipped away at the lead and outscored the Celtics, 32-18 in the fourth quarter for the 109-98 win. Walker paced the Celtics with 26 points, but Josh Richardson lifted the 76ers with 29 points, while Philadelphia won in spite of receiving only 21 points from its bench.

Boston finally broke through in the fourth meeting with another strong start by leading, 32-19 after one quarter and rolled to a 116-95 win at TD Garden on February 1. Embiid was limited to 1-of-11 shooting from the floor for 11 points, while Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 32 points for Boston. Interesting side note on Brown's stat line as he shot 12-of-13 on two-point attempts, but was 1-of-10 from three-point range.

Key Injuries

Philadelphia

Ben Simmons: Knee - Out
Glenn Robinson III: Hip - Out

Boston

Romeo Langford: Wrist - Doubtful

Simmons being sidelined with a knee injury sustained in the third bubble game against the Wizards. The former top pick leaves a huge void for this Philadelphia team with a strong stat line (16.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 8.0 apg), as the Sixers will have a tall task if they want to advance to the conference semifinals for the second straight season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-17-2020, 12:30 PM

Game 1 Odds: Mavericks vs. Clippers
Tony Mejia

The opening day of NBA playoff action concludes with the West's 2-7 pairing taking center stage at AdventHealth Arena.

The No. 2-seeded Los Angeles Clippers meet the No. 7 seed Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of their best-of-seven first-round series.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Game 1
Venue: AdventHealth Arena
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Monday, Aug. 17, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds - Mavericks vs. Clippers

The L.A. Clippers opened as a five-point favorite at DraftKings but were quickly bet to six, which is where the line has remained as of Sunday evening.

The total opened at 229.5 at DraftKings, 230.5 at MGM and 231 at 231.5 at Caesars and Westgate and has hovered in the 229.5-231 range since. Be sure to follow all the line movements.

Point-Spread Odds

Clippers -6
Mavericks +6

Money-Line Odds

Clippers -250 (Bet $100 to win $40)
Mavericks +210 (Bet $100 to win $210)

Total Odds

Over 230
Under 230

Series Odds

Clippers -450
Mavericks +375

Inside the Betting Stats

Overall

Dallas: 43-32 SU, 37-35-3 ATS
Los Angeles: 49-23 SU, 41-31 ATS

Bubble

Dallas: 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS
Los Angeles: 5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS

The Clippers have been considered one of the favorites to claim this season's NBA title since landing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George over a year ago and haven't been completely whole most of the season for one reason or another. Despite this, they were one of the better teams against the number, finishing in a three-way tie for 41 covers, second only to Oklahoma City (44). They covered in six of eight seeding contests.

Dallas played the most games (75) of any team this season, tying Portland, and surprised by contending for a Southwest Division title until ultimately slowing down in Orlando. The Mavericks were an underdog in six of their eight bubble battles and won outright twice, overcoming the Bucks and Jazz as six-point 'dogs. Luka Doncic averaged 30 points, 10.1 rebounds and 9.7 assists in seeding games. Kristaps Porzingis averaged 30.4 points and 9.7 rebounds.

Over-Under Total Notes

Totals Report

Overall

Dallas: 45-30 O/U
Los Angeles: 34-37-1 O/U

Bubble

Dallas: 5-3 O/U
Los Angeles: 5-3 O/U

The Mavs gave up 126 or more points in five of their eight seeding games, which includes surrendering 153 points against Houston in their opener. The 'under' went 3-1 when they were held to 115 or fewer points, which is lower than the 117.0 they averaged for the season. Not surprisingly, they were 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS when failing to reach their season average. Only the Blazers saw the 'over' connect as much as Dallas.

The Clippers pride themselves on defense since they have three of the best individual defenders in the game on the roster, but Patrick Beverley barely played due to a calf injury, last suiting up on Aug. 4. The high side connected in five of L.A.'s last six seeding games but still remains down for the season in games involving the Clippers.

Mavericks vs. Clippers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 6, 2020: L.A. Clippers (-4) 126 vs. Dallas 111, Over 231.5

Jan. 21, 2020: L.A. Clippers (+2.5) 110 at Dallas 107, Under 231.5

Nov. 26, 2020: L.A. Clippers (-1.5) 114 at Dallas 99, Under 225.5

Leonard helped the Clippers pull away down the stretch, finishing with 29 points as L.A. shot 62 percent in the fourth quarter to gain separation from a Dallas team that rallied from 12 down in the second half to tie it at 101 with 6:41 left. Beverley sat, but L.A. center Ivica Zubac played x-factor by finishing with 21 points and 15 rebounds in just over 24 minutes. He tied a franchise record by finishing 10-for-10 from the field.

Leonard scored 35 points to help fuel a 110-107 win in the second game played in Dallas between these teams, who never did get to play at Staples Center. That game's lasting impact occurred when Mavs forward/center Dwight Powell tore his Achilles in the first quarter. Porzingis was just playing his first game back after missing 10 due to knee soreness. He shot 4-for-17.

Both teams brought five-game winning streaks into the first matchup but the Clips cruised behind a 17-point George first quarter that allowed them to take a commanding lead. He scored 26 points and finished a game-high plus-21, while Doncic shot 0-for-8 from 3-point range.

Key Injuries

L.A. Clippers

Patrick Beverley: Calf – Questionable
Landry Shamet: Foot – Questionable

Utah

Dwight Powell: Achilles (Out)
Jalen Brunson: Shoulder (Out)
Courtney Lee: Calf (Out)

Clippers super sub Montrezl Harrell is expected to be thrown right back in the mix after sitting out bubble play while attending to a family matter. He was with his grandmother as she passed from COVID-19 and returned, wrapping up quarantine but ultimately not playing late in the week. Beverley is listed as questionable due to his calf strain but is expected to return. Shooter Landry Shamet is also listed as questionable for L.A. due to a foot injury.

Powell and guard Jalen Brunson are out for the season. The Dallas roster that came to Orlando lists no injuries, so even though Doncic, Porzingis and Dorian Finney-Smith all dealt with some lingering ailments over the past few weeks, everyone is feeling good for the Mavs entering this series opener.

Monday 8/17/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Monday 8/17/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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