Monday 8/31/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 4:10PM ET:
SEATTLE MARINERS @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

SEA Mariners Win Money Line
+130

Over 9.5 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
The Seattle Mariners will look to salvage a split of a four-game series between two of the worst teams in the American League. Lefty Marco Gonzales is the closest thing the Mariners have to an ace on their roster. Gonzales has 32 wins since the start of the 2018 season, and he’s always brought his A-game against Anaheim, with a 7-1 lifetime record against the Angels. Most impressively this season, Gonzales has just three walks in 34.2 innings through six starts. He’s clearly a more in-form pitcher than Angels starter Jaime Barria, who went 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA in 19 games (13 starts) last season. Barria has pitched well in long relief so far in 2020, but he hasn’t started a game all year, and the youthful, speedy Mariners lineup won’t prove to be an easy task for him. Gonzales already has two wins against the Angels in 2020, and look for him to lead his team to another in the series finale on Monday. Back the Mariners.


Over Under Pick
Gonzales is one of Mike Trout’s favorite AL West pitchers to face. In 31 career at-bats, Trout has a .419 batting average and three home runs. He had five hits and seven runs batted in during the first two games of the series, and it’s a good bet he’ll drive in some more on Monday. Dee Gordon is the only Seattle hitter with more than 15 career at-bats against Barria, but he’s also done well, hitting .316. The Mariners’ lineup led by rookie phenom Kyle Lewis should score enough runs for the over to hit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 6:30PM ET:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS @ CINCINNATI REDS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

STL Cardinals Win Money Line
-105

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-120

Money Line Pick
The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals will begin a three-game series when they square off in Cincinnati on Monday evening. St. Louis is in mediocre form at best, but it will be buoyed by Adam Wainwright’s complete game on his 39th birthday on Sunday. The Cardinals also have to like their chances with right-hander Dakota Hudson on the mound. He has not yet picked up a win this season, but he is sporting a 3.32 ERA. Cincinnati, which got blown out by the Cubs 10-1 on Sunday, are countering with right-hander Anthony Desclafani. He is 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA, doomed only by a 2.0-inning performance against lowly Pittsburgh on Aug. 13, when he surrendered nine runs on three homers. The Cardinals are 15-6 in their last 21 series openers and 38-17 in their last 55 against opponents with losing records. Cincinnati is 1-4 in its last five series openers, 17-35 in the last 52 meetings between the two teams, and 7-18 in its last 25 at home against the Cards. Lean toward St. Louis.


Over Under Pick
Aside from his stink-bomb against the Pirates, Desclafani has been solid. Hudson has been effective basically every time out, including when he stymied Cincinnati over 4.2 innings of shutout baseball on Aug. 21. Jesse Winkler is the only Reds regular who is batting better than .262. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cardinals’ last five against the National League Central. It is also 7-3 in the Reds’ last 10 at home and 4-1 in their last five against the NL Central. Additionally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the two teams and 4-1-1 in St. Louis’ last six at St. Louis. Go with the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 7:05PM ET:
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ NEW YORK YANKEES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

NY Yankees Win Money Line
-140

Over 7.5 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
It will already be the third head-to-head showdown between fellow right-handers Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow when the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays kick off a crucial three-game series in New York on Monday. Those two aces have split the two previous meetings; New York prevailed 8-4 (in seven innings) on Aug. 8 before Glasnow and Tampa Bay exacted a measure of revenge with a 4-2 victory on Aug. 19. The Yankees are coming off a three-game sweep of the Mets this past weekend and they needed it in the worst way, having previous lost seven in a row from completely out of nowhere. Now that they are hot again, it would not be surprising to see them remain on a roll. Gary Sanchez hit a grand slam in the eighth inning (extras in a seven-inning game) to give his team a 5-2 victory in the nightcap of a double-header. Tampa Bay is 16-37 in its last 53 at New York, which is another reason to take the Yankees.


Over Under Pick
Both of these lineups have already seen the opposing pitchers twice each, which is generally to the advantage of the offensive teams. Glasnow is saddled with a 5.14 ERA this year and Cole is coming off his worst start of 2020–he allowed five runs in 5.0 innings on three homers to Atlanta this past Wednesday. The over is 6-2 in the Rays’ last eight against starters with WHIPs under 1.15. It is also 5-1 in the Yankees’ last six against opponents with winning percentages over .600. Take advantage of a miniscule total here and go with the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 7:05PM ET:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS @ PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

PHI Phillies Win Money Line
-120

Over 10.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will get a four-game series started when they clash in Philadelphia on Monday. Heading into Sunday night’s showdown against Atlanta, the Phillies had won five games in a row to get back to .500. They are on an absolute roll with the bats, led by Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, and J.T. Realmuto. Andrew McCutchen is slowly getting into the act, as well. The Nationals, on the other hand, are a horrendous 1-5 in their past six outings. They will send right-hander Erick Fedde to toe the rubber on Monday. Fedde faced Philadelphia this past Tuesday and surrendered four runs in 5.0 innings during an 8-3 loss. Washington is 1-4 in its last five overall and 7-19 in its last 26 against right-handed starters. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last five at home, 5-0 in their last five against the National League East, and 6-2 in their last eight against opponents with losing records. Philadelphia is too hot to pick against right now, but proceed with some caution since Spencer Howard is on the mound.


Over Under Pick
Philadelphia is faring just fine on offense right now and it just got a look at Fedde one week earlier, so the hitters know what to expect. As for Howard, he is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA so far this season. In other words, the Phillies will have to keep scoring a lot if they want to keep winning. Howard is just 11.2 innings into his big-league career, and the inexperience is showing. The over is 12-3-1 in the Nationals’ last 16 overall, 16-5 in their last 21 on the road, and 8-2-1 in their last 11 against the National League East. It is also 5-1-1 in the Phillies’ last seven series openers. Lean toward the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 8:05PM ET:
CLEVELAND INDIANS @ KANSAS CITY ROYALS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

CLE Indians Win -1.5 Run Line
-135

Under 7.5 Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
The Indians dropped the series finale with the Cardinals on Sunday to snap a four-game winning streak. They have a great opportunity to get back in the win column here as they face a struggling Kansas City side. The Indians will also be starting Shane Bieber, who has been the best or one of the best pitchers in all of baseball this season. Bieber is currently 6-0 with a 1.35 ERA. He has 75 strikeouts over just 46.2 innings of work. Note that Bieber opened the season pitching against this Royals team, where he went 6.0 innings of shutout baseball and struck out 14 batters.

Brad Keller will be the guy for the Royals as he looks to bounce back from a rough outing against St. Louis. In this previous start, Keller allowed five runs over 4.0 innings. Although he still has posted good numbers overall, a record of 3-1 with an ERA of 2.08. The fact that Keller did show regression against the Cardinals scares me, so I will continue to ride the hot hand of Bieber and will take the Indians to win comfortably.


Over Under Pick
Knowing who is on the mound, it makes you want to take the under; Vegas wants you to take the under and I am inclined to agree. The Royals are just not generating enough runs this season, averaging 4.1 per game. The under is 19-11-2 for Kansas City this season and 22-8-2 for Cleveland. Even if Keller gives up a few runs, there is nothing to make me believe Bieber is going to all of a sudden start to struggle. By no means would I be recommending a large play here, but I can only see a pitchers’ duel–so it would be a lean to the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 8:10PM ET:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA TWINS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

CHI White Sox Win Money Line
-150

Over 8.5 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
The White Sox did not enjoy their series with Kansas City as much as they were hoping to. Nevertheless, they are right there with Minnesota and Cleveland, so how these teams do against each other is likely to determine who takes the division. I think you can make an argument that the White Sox have the best offense in the majors. They might just be sixth in scoring, but they are second in homers and first in average. Tim Anderson is hitting .361 and his speed on the bases can be really disruptive. They can slug you to death but they can beat you other ways, too. Lucas Giolito will be making his first start since he pitched a no-hitter. He did not overexert himself, though, tossing just over 100 pitches. Minnesota did not have a good weekend getting swept by the Tigers. The Twins are dealing with some injuries to their lineup and it was reflected in that they scored exactly two runs in each game, well below their season averages. Now they have to hope that Rich Hill can break them out of it. He might look good the first time through the order but often teams figure him out from there. This is not a good spot for the home side. Take Chicago.


Over Under Pick
There is definitely lots of power throughout these lineups, albeit a little less for Minnesota these days. I am liking the over in this one because Chicago can really load up with lots of righty power against Hill. Hill is a veteran but if they are timing him well there could be some big-time fireworks. Giolito is unlikely to be as sharp as he was in his last outing so fading him a little makes some sense. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 9:30PM ET:
SAN DIEGO PADRES @ COLORADO ROCKIES PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

COL Rockies Win Money Line
+100

Money Line Pick
The Padres won two of three in Colorado over the weekend and in each of those wins, they scored at least 10 runs. Is there any team more fun than San Diego right now? They scored 13 runs yesterday thanks to five home runs. Fernando Tatis Jr. did not even go yard but he is still tied for the Major League lead with 13 homers. This is the top-scoring team in the league but that might not be enough to support Garrett Richards. He is working on short rest because both of his last two starts, were short ones. I am not fond of the situation for the hurler pitching at Coors Field. The Rockies need to get this win on Monday to even the series and get back over .500. We are past the halfway point of this short season so we are getting close to counting down. Charlie Blackmon is sliding a little and is only hitting .362 now. They also need Nolan Arenado to hit more. They are at their best when their best-paid player is leading the lineup. Their best pitcher, German Marquez, is struggling too. A couple of starts ago he gave up 10 runs over five innings destroying his ERA but he has been on a downward trend for a month. I only like Colorado here because I think he can be more effective than Richards.


Take Colorado.


Over Under Pick
Any game at Coors has a better than average chance of going over, though the oddsmakers are pretty good at trying to make it hard to capitalize on that. For this one, we have two pitchers who have been really struggling in the best hitter’s park in the league. The question is whether the books can set a total high enough. San Diego is also missing its closer and the Rockies bullpen can be a dumpster fire. Even though this is not a lot number I think we cruise over it. We should not have to wait for the final at-bats here.


Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 3:30PM ET:
FINGER LAKES PICKS HORSE RACING

My Girl Annie Win
+350

Jemography Win
+300

2:31 pm Finger Lakes (Race 4) – My Girl Annie +350

Has been in excellent form since switching to Finger Lakes, strong at the finish in a pair of Allowance races over shorter. Winning at Tampa Bay in April over seven furlongs, returning to the mile today will really help matters. Winning at tougher levels in the past, she has a very strong chance.


3:52 pm Finger Lakes (Race 7) – Jemography +300

Scoring on three of his last four starts, all at Finger Lakes, Jonathan Buckley’s charge has been very tough to beat at this level. He was impressive when winning here on his latest outing and in a race that is no tougher on paper, another victory beckons for this consistent four-year-old.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 3:50PM ET:
FORT ERIE PICKS HORSE RACING

Successful Saint Win
+140

Party Dress Win
+200

2:06 pm Fort Erie (Race 3) – Successful Saint +140

Second in the Mass Bred Championship Handicap to end 2019, he’s not been disgraced in a pair of tough races this year. Getting into a pace battle with Saint Alfred told on his latest start in the Thomas F. Moran and allowed The Doc Is In to steal second late. Beating him on multiple occasions prior, he should reconfirm his superiority today at this level.

3:58 pm Fort Erie (Race 7) – Party Dress +200

Breaking her maiden comfortably at Fort Erie two starts ago, she was a clear second to a runaway winner on her latest start when bidding to follow up. John Simms seems to have found the key to this filly and after just eight starts, the best should be yet to come from this unexposed filly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 7:30PM ET:
ATLANTA BRAVES @ BOSTON RED SOX PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

ATL Braves Win -1.5 Run Line
-125

Under 9.5 Game Totals
-110

Run Line Pick
The Braves will be excited for Monday’s game at Boston, not because Fenway Park is a classic place to play, but because it is Max Fried’s turn to start. Fried is the best (and only) starter for the Braves that seems to be able to have a good outing. He is currently 5-0 on the season with an ERA of 1.35. You could really say he is having a season that is Cy Young worthy (at least so far). Fried has yet to allow more than two runs in a game this season and six of his seven starts have seen him allow just one run or less. His last start saw him go 6.0 innings against the New York Yankees, allowing just one run.

On the other side, the Red Sox will be starting Colten Brewer. He is much less consistent, going 0-2 so far with an ERA of 4.57. This will only be his fourth start of the season as Brewer is mainly used out of the bullpen. His most recent start saw him allow four runs over just 3.2 innings against the Blue Jays. Also, his longest outing this year was just 4.0 innings, where he held the Orioles scoreless.

Boston has been so bad this year, so even if they were starting a quality pitcher (they do not really have many), I still would never back them here against Fried. He has been much too good, so I will gladly take the Braves here to win on the run line.


Over Under Pick
A pitcher that has been virtually untouchable against a guy who has been well below average is what we have here to determine the total. The Braves could easily surpass this total by themselves, as we saw their offense put up 10 runs in one inning last night in Philadelphia, but their bullpen could allow quite a few as well. Luckily for the Braves, Fried is likely to eat a chuck of the innings (maybe 6.0 or 7.0), so the bullpen might not have to do all that much. As for Boston, their bullpen is essentially going to do everything in this game as I do not see Brewer going deep at all. Because Fried is the guy on the mound, I am going to back an under here as I do not see the Red Sox doing their share of the scoring.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 7:00PM ET:
BOSTON BRUINS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

TB Lightning Win Money Line
-120

Under 5.5 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
Since winning Game 1 of their second-round series, the Bruins haven’t had an answer for the Lightning. The Bruins coasted down the stretch and played for overtime in Game 2, they got blown out (7-1) in Game 3, and they looked like they were skating in mud during their 3-1 loss in Game 4. Worst of all, the Bruins tried to shake up their lineup by revering back to their 12 forwards/six defensemen lineup, and it still didn’t work. Boston has seemingly tried every trick in the book, and it’s still only one game away from elimination.

We don’t see it getting any better in Game 5. The Bruins’ struggles against the Lightning aren’t reserved to this series; Boston is 2-6-2 against Tampa Bay in the teams’ last 10 matchups. The Bruins also weren’t good in their 11 games as underdogs, going 4-6-1. And, worst of all, Bruins backup goalie Jaroslav Halak has allowed more than 3.25 goals per game this series, and that included a game where he was limited to 31 minutes. This just isn’t the Bruins’ series – we’re taking Lightning money line.


Over Under Pick
Boston prefers those low-scoring contests; its had a convincing 33-46-3 O/U record this past season, including a 16-22-2 O/U record when playing on the road. This trend has continued recently, as the total has gone under in 12 of the team’s last 17 contests and seven of its last nine road games. The total has also gone under in 15 of its last 20 contests against Eastern Conference opponents.

Tampa Bay had a much more even O/U record this season, but there are reasons to think it will trend towards the under on Monday. The Lightning were 17-22-2 O/U on the road this season (relevant for neutral ice purposes). The total has also gone under in nine of their last 13 games and seven of their last nine “home games.” We’re taking the under on Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MON, AUG 31ST - 9:45PM ET:
DALLAS STARS @ COLORADO AVALANCHE PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS

DAL Stars Win Money Line
+115

Over 6.0 Game Totals
-115

Money Line Pick
Another crazy game on Sunday as the Dallas Stars won a shootout 5-4 to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Stars were able to jump out to a 3-0 lead in the first period and were able to coast the rest of the game. To be fair, it did get tight in the second period as the Stars saw their 3-0 shrink to a 3-2 lead, but an energized start to the third period saw them score two more to basically put the game away. The Avalanche scored a couple of late goals to make the scoreline look respectable, but really Dallas just had their way. The biggest difference in this game was the Stars’ ability to take advantage of their powerplays. They scored three of these goals, while limiting the Avalanche to just one. Also, Dallas had five different guys score a goal and seven different guys with an assist, so they were getting offensive production all over the ice. Given what I have seen from Colorado, I do not think their defense is going to be able to slow down the Stars. I do not want the Avalanche at this price, so I will back Dallas as a lean to finish off the series.


Over Under Pick
Goals have continued to be scored all series long and I do not see anything changing here. After a combined nine goals were scored in game four, there has now been an average of 8.5 goals scored per game this series. Dallas has scored five goals in all three of their wins an even in their one loss, they scored four as well. Neither goalie is providing much resistance either, so look for each side to score a flurry of goals. Also, this is an elimination game, so the Avalanche will be going all out to try and crawl their way back into the series. Regardless of what these teams are known for, during the bubble they have been all offense, so that is what we are backing here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miami Heat Vs Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: August 31, 6:30 p.m. ET
Arena: HP Field House
TV Coverage: TNT
Opening Odds: Bucks -6 | O/U 223 (Line History)

Heat vs Bucks Matchup Report
Opening Odds Analysis
When the Bucks are laying a short number, it has usually spelled trouble for their backers. Milwaukee is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite of 6 points or less. Bettors had already bet the Bucks down to 5.5 points as of Sunday night.

The Heat were 9.5-point underdogs when the teams squared off in the seeding round, but Miami sat Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic in that contest.

Miami News & Notes
The Heat have the potential to look rusty early in their first game action since finishing off a first-round sweep of the Pacers last Monday. However, Miami’s been a covering machine for years when head coach Erik Spoelstra has had extra time to prepare, going 38-18 ATS in its last 56 games with at least three days of rest. The extended time off has also bought time for Jimmy Butler (shoulder) and Jae Crowder (ankle) to heal, as both are listed as probable for Game 1.

Miami was the only team in the Eastern Conference to post a winning record against Milwaukee this year, and the three-point shot is a big reason why. The Heat, one of the league’s most efficient teams from behind the arc this season, knocked down 43.3 percent of their threes this year against Milwaukee, which allowed the most triples in the NBA.

Miami also has a big body that can guard Giannis Antetokounmpo in the six-foot-nine, 255-pound Bam Adebayo, who limited The Greek Freak to 42.9 percent from the field on the 52 possessions he guarded him this season.

Milwaukee News & Notes
After spearheading last week’s protest of social injustice, George Hill and the Bucks have acknowledged to reporters that they haven’t been completely focused on basketball. But that hasn’t prevented Milwaukee from being one of the most profitable teams to back in the NBA playoffs so far. Following a stunning 122-110 loss in the opener, the Bucks steamrolled the Magic by 14-plus points in each of the next four games, covering the spread in each of them.

Milwaukee has also shown an ability to find another gear defensively when tested, including in Saturday’s series-clinching win over Orlando. After seeing a 21-point lead shrink to three with 7:37 left in regulation, the Bucks allowed just 11 points the rest of the way en route to a comfortable 118-104 victory. Milwaukee has also relied on that defense against quality foes, going UNDER in 10 of its last 12 games against teams with records of .600 or better.

One potential concern for the Bucks on Monday is the status of Eric Bledsoe. The guard, who missed much of the seeding round after recovering from COVID-19, strained his right hamstring Saturday and was considered questionable for Game 1 as of Sunday night.

Betting Pick: UNDER 223

Taking the points with Miami is extremely tempting, but I’m a bit nervous about backing a team that hasn’t played in a week — especially one that has relied on perimeter shooting to beat the Bucks. If you throw out the seeding-round matchup when Miami rested a few key players, six of the last seven meetings between these squads have gone UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Houston Rockets Vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Date/Time: August 31, 9 p.m. ET
Arena: The Arena (WWOS)
TV Coverage: TNT
Opening Odds: Rockets -6.5 | O/U 225 (Line History)

Rockets vs Thunder Matchup Report
Opening Odds Analysis
This point spread is the largest in the series, eclipsing the 5 points that Houston was favored by in Game 5. Bettors have pounced on the extra value on the Thunder, betting OKC down to +5.5 by Sunday night. There’s also been some early love for the OVER, which moved up to 226.5.

Houston News & Notes
The Rockets’ 34-point win in Game 5 coincided with Russell Westbrook’s return from a right quadriceps injury, but the nine-time all-star had just seven points in 23 minutes. A bigger key to the rout was a return to form by James Harden, who’d averaged 30.3 points in the previous three games but had missed 40 of 68 shots from the field in the process. Harden was much more efficient on Saturday, needing just 15 field-goal attempts — and just 28 minutes — to score 31 points.

The blowout continued the Rockets’ recent trend of winning by large margins. Their last five victories have all come by 13 points or more, and 12 of their last 16 wins were by double-digit margins. That includes wins by 15, 13 and 34 points in this series.

Oklahoma City News & Notes
The Thunder have bounced back from bad losses all year, going 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a loss by 10 or more points. Whether they can improve on those numbers will depend on whether they can improve their shooting from behind the arc. OKC was absolutely abysmal from distance in Game 5, hitting just seven of its 46 three-point attempts. The Thunder starters missed their final 17 treys and finished the contest with just one make on 21 attempts.

No one struggled more offensively in Game 5 than rookie Lu Dort. Deliberately left open by Houston throughout the game, Dort missed all nine of his three-pointers and hit just three of 16 field-goal attempts overall. All of those shot attempts by Dort (he’d taken just 10 shots in each of his previous three games) also took away opportunities from Danilo Gallinari, who was 0-for-5 from the field and finished the game with one point.

Betting Pick: Thunder +5.5

The Thunder are a resilient bunch and I’m expecting a much better performance from them in Game 6, particularly from behind the three-point line. Look for OKC to improve to 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and for this series to go the distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boston Bruins Vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Date/Time: August 31, 7 p.m. ET
Arena: Scotiabank Arena
TV Coverage: NBCSN, SNET
Opening Odds: Lightning -120 | O/U 5.5 (Line History)

Bruins vs Lightning Matchup Report
Opening Odds Analysis
Tampa Bay opened as a -120 favorite, which might seem generous to Boston given how the last two games have gone; you can find it between -115 and -130 at most sportsbooks. The opening total of 5.5 hasn’t budged.

Boston News & Notes
If the Bruins had only one thing to work on, the task might not seem so insurmountable. But Boston has been thoroughly outplayed at both ends of the ice in back-to-back games, getting outscored by a 10-2 margin and looking nothing like the team that rolled to 100 points during the regular season. Goaltending is of particular concern, with Boston allowing those 10 goals on just 57 shots.

But while it remains to be seen what (if any) changes the Bruins will make in goal, it won’t matter if the offense doesn’t pull things together as well. Boston has just eight goals through the first four games of the series, with Brad Marchand responsible for four of them. Regular-season NHL goal-scoring co-leader David Pastrnak has one goal vs Tampa Bay and two in nine playoff games.

Tampa Bay News & Notes
An earlier preview suggested that the Lightning could benefit greatly from getting a greater contribution from Ondrej Palat. And it’s clear that Palat is a huge Odds Shark fan, as he has been the catalyst for Tampa Bay’s three-game roll. He scored twice in the Game 4 victory and now has four goals over his past three games after opening with eight straight goalless outings.

But Palat isn’t the only reason Tampa Bay is on the cusp of returning to the conference final for the fifth time in 10 seasons. After starting the series 0-for-5 with the man advantage, the Lightning have gone a red-hot 4-for-11 on the power play over their past two games – and that number 11 is the one the suddenly undisciplined Bruins should be most concerned about in Game 5.

Betting Pick: UNDER 5.5 (-110)

The Bruins can only hope to win this game if they go back to their shutdown defense – and while that might prove to be easier said than done given the way Tampa Bay is clicking right now, we like the chances of this one being more of a slog.