Thursday 9/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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MBNC Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Late Pick 4 Analysis

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September 3, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Race 7

6-Mr Three Quarters (7/2)-
7-Shadyman (5-1)-
8-Impressive Cowboy (7-1)-

Race 8

1-Fox Valley Triton (2-1)-
9-Lucky Crusader (5-1)-

Race 9

4-Major Hart (7-1)-
5-Canadian Mountie (3-1)-
7-Lakeside Buddy (4-1)-

Race 10

1-Silverstar's Flash(6-1)-
2-Western Perch (8/5)-
3-Hello Rooster (7-1)-
5-Chasing Money (6-1)-

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Saratoga - Race #1

#5 Holy Emporor	Improving sort just missed against MSW foes last time, now makes the often pivotal third start of his form cycle, and should be a fair price too; look out.
#7 Compliant	Stiff ML favorite for Brown is another MSW dropper, and clearly he hits hard off the 3rd last time, but the price will be on the short side; trying to beat on top.
#1 Glynn Country	Logical sort was close to the 7 last time, so clearly he fits, but the 2-for-1 angle will make the price short, and he has no real edge on paper; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 5, and the reality is he's only about a length slowed than the 7 and right on par with the 1, and you can argue he has as much upside as they do as well, so play him to win and place, while getting some additional value by using him to kick off the early Pk5, since budget players might not cover him, which means a win would knock out plenty of tickets right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #6

#6 The Important One	Price player has found a new home on turf and the dirt runs weren't as strong to start her career, but she's yet to run on the main track for Asmussen, so there's a chance she betters that dirt form, and there's also a chance she's better now than she was then, and the price will be right to find out; upset special.
#7 Officer Hutchy	The chalk could win this running backwards if she runs back to the win here last month, as it came in extremely fast time, but it was also against 25k N3L foes for Rice, and while new trainer Atras is 25% off the claim, there's seemingly as good a chance this one bounces as holds her form; scary, but no lock.
33 Spin a Yarn	Finger Lakes invader comes east down I-90 and puts her undefeated 4-for-4 record on the line while trying the major leagues for the first time, and the win two-back would play here, but the worry is she's drawn inside some outside speed, which won't help matters in deep stretch; thinking this is a bridge too far.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 6, and it needs to be as she's facing some gals at their own game, but aside from the favorite, who is no lock to run back to her last, there's no one to fear here,, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since she looks live, and a win would add plenty of value to the sequence right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #8

#4 Slimey	Stretch runner was 3rd here last time, in a fast race for the level, catches a field loaded with speed, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#2 Jc's Shooting Star	Fellow closer was up in time to beat state breds last time, and a repeat plays here, for a Donk barn that is having a stellar meet; will be rolling late.
#6 Fair Regis	Stalker keeps firing without winning and will get first run on the top-2, though seven straight in-the-money losses doesn't entice; underneath only.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here to flatter the chances of both the 2 and 4, while potentially hurting those of the speeds, so play who you fancy the most in all the slots, box them in the EX, and use them both in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since they seem to be getting all the best of it here, and a win by either would go a long way to blowing up both sequences.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#3 Baby Bam Bam	Steps up again for this after her fourth win in a row, and her early pace will keep her in the mix from the start once again.
#1 Princess Georgia	Showed some life when racing at this level last out, and she caught a tough winner that day. Not impossible here.
#6 Polished Copper	She's dropping in class for this, but she'll need something big like her two-back run to handle these, and she doesn't produce those types of efforts very often.
Race Summary	Baby Bam Bam has early pace and really sharp form, and she'll step up again with form that has been continuously improving from day one.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#7 Across the Aisle	Longshot swing is a former claimer who has been in far too deep in recent starts. He'll need every bit of his best, but this easier bunch may allow him to wake up at a number.
#1 Golden Spear	Cuts the tag in half off that Saratoga run, but the form isn't exactly trending in the right direction. He can win this, but he feels dicey at a likely short price.
#8 Eldritch	He's found the right level with this kind, and his recent running lines stack up nicely with the locals. Finisher has a claim on this.
Race Summary	Across the Aisle gets some class relief for this after trying some allowance spots, and the hope is that he'll bring something better on the drop while trying the local turf company.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#8 Miss Auramet	She has been sensational in most of her starts this year, and she doesn't meet a huge amount of pace for a trip like this. Tough.
#1 Mr. Al's Gal	Draws well for a nice tracking trip, and she ran well in her only local turf try when facing better stakes company.
#5 Romantic Moment	This trip might be a touch too sharp for her, but she owns a nice two-back sprint win going six furlongs here that might keep her in the mix if she repeats it at this shorter run.
Race Summary	Miss Auramet should be tough to beat in a turf sprint spot where she won't meet much pace at all. She'll get bet but looks like the right one.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#3 SEELEY MAN	Held up under demanding fractions for three-peat, claimed again.
#4 SPORTS CHARM	No factor on class rise to this level after back-to-back wins.
#5 PREPPY ART	Settled for minor awards in last three starts, twice as the favorite.
Race Summary	Seeley Man led through a :55.1 half-mile split and held off the 5-to-2 pocket sitter at Pocono Downs for his third win in a row. The 7-year-old loves changes barns again but simply loves to win.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#10 EXTRILLA HANOVER	Lots to like aside from second-tier starting spot.
#3 EASYRUNNER HANOVER	Good middle move from second-tier, can use speed wisely.
#1 PAULA’S BET HANOVER	Followed move of 4-1 winner at half-mile Grand River oval.
Race Summary	Shooting for an all ‘Hanover’ trifecta. Extrilla Hanover gets top billing as the only runner in the field with a win, Gingras to pilot and enough speed to manage second-tier starting spot.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#8 IN SECRET	Drops into dream spot for local debut, seeks 39th victory.
#7 WHAT A RUSH	Two wins and leading money earner in field this year.
#1 TIKI TAKA	Ran second at this level two back, then trotted evenly against better.
Race Summary	U.S. invader In Secret is an all-or-nothing play on the class drop for new connections. He ran well off a similar freshening in June, only to go off stride in the stretch. He draws outside of the first six rivals who are a combined 0-for-86 this year. Play 8-1 and 8-7 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 Donnameup	Crushed maidens in her first local turf start in more than a year and enjoys life on the front end; expect her to be sent to the lead again and it would not be a surprise if she ran another good race over the Gulfstream grass.
#1 Dienda	Was third in her last two races and has taken on some decent filllies; likely to be close throughout.
#7 La Rusia	Comes out of some quick races and has a good chance to stay near the lead throughout; capable of running well again.
Race Summary	Donnameup was an easy maiden winner last time and has a good chance to repeat.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#1 Handsome Prince	Gave way and was not persevered last time and had been in good form with four straight. Likely to get a ground-saving trip from just off the pace.
#7 Rack Gin	Takes a class drop after tiring vs. better; can show more courage at this level and distance.
#3 Captain Duke	Lost a photo last out and has been on the board in four straight; was in fast races and was a factor in all of them.
Race Summary	Handsome Prince folded up the tent last time but had been in good form and is accustomed to higher levels. Turns back to six furlongs and can get a good stalking trip.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#5 Joe Di Baggio	Will get a fast pace to chase and is usually better when he comes off the pace; well-placed here.
#1 Front Loaded	Busted loose for an easy win last out and has been on the board in five of his last six; has some versatility and will does his best over this strip.
#2 Vinnie Van Go	Was a convincing winner last out and has been claimed in three straight, last time by Barboza. Can put on the pressure from the start and fits here.
Race Summary	Joe Di Baggio has shown an explosive move on occasion, especially from just off a quick pace. Can grind it out vs. these.

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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
White Sox @ Royals
TIME: 8:05 PM EST
PICK: OVER 9.5

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FREE MLB PICKS
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
TIME: 7:30 PM EST
PICKS: OVER 10.5

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VEGASSI
THURSDAY 9/3/2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Golden Knights @ Canucks
TIME: 9:45 PM EST
PICK: OVER 6

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Stephen DeAngelo

Last season on their way to the NBA Championship, the Toronto Raptors found themselves down in their Eastern Conference Finals series to the Milwaukee Bucks two games to none. This season in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, the Raptors find themselves in the same predicament to the Boston Celtics, but while the Raptors were able to dig out of the hole last season, I do not see them digging out of the hole this season.


For one thing, Toronto no longer has Kawhi Leonard helping them in their comeback bid and as good as Pascal Siakam is, he is much better suited at playing the "Robin" role to someone else's "Batman" role. Siakam has not been able to carry his team this series and with Fred VanVleet most definitely in a shooting slump - 3-of-12 from 3, and 8-of-22 overall for the Game 2 loss - this Toronto team that actually led by a 78-66 margin with just under 3 minutes to go in the third quarter.


Boston refused to fold though and battled back. This time is was Marcus Smart who caught fire with five 3-pointers and 16 total points in a span of just over 3 minutes in the 4th quarter to get the Celtics back in control of the game. Smart ended the game with 19 points, while Jayson led all scorers with 34 points. Kemba Walker netted 17 total and scored 11 of the C's last 16 points to put the Celtics up 2-0 in this series.


No reason Boston cannot make it 3-0. They have shown this year that they know how to beat this Toronto team, as they have now won 5 of the 6 games played between the teams, including 3 wins and covers in as many tries in Orlando.


Nick Nurse is a great coach, but Brad Stevens is no slouch and unless Boston suddenly gets full of themselves, their streak of 6 straight wins to open this postseason - 5-1 against the spread - should improve to 7 wins in a row.


The oddsmakers continue to give the Raptors a little too much respect and not quite enough respect to the Celtics. Their mistake is to our advantage.


Take Boston over Toronto.

4* BOSTON

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Bob Valentino

After 2 comes 3, as in 3 games played in these Eastern Conference Semifinals and 3 games Under the total.

The Raptors find themselves in an 0-2 hole as they take the court here on Thursday and the big reason they trail is their inability to score. Toronto has twice failed to reach 100 points as BOTH games contested have landed Under the total.

That makes it 4 of their last 5 this postseason Under the total for Nick Nurse's club and it also puts the Raptors on an overall Under run of 10 of 14 since arriving in Orlando. That 10-4 run does include one regular season meeting with Boston just before the playoffs started.

The Celtics are on an even more pronounced Under run, as they have played each of their last 4 and 7 of their last 8 overall have held Under the posted price.

If we are to include the regular season August meeting in Orlando against the Raptors that landed Under it is a 8-2 Under run now for Brad Stevens' team their last 10 times on the hardwood.

As for the series, the teams have been Under in 5 of the past 7 meetings.

Until I see evidence Toronto remembers how to score 100 points, I will look for another Under in this spot.

Celtics-Raptors Under the total in Game Three.

2* TORONTO-BOSTON UNDER

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Mitchell Newman

Denver just ended their series with Utah on Tuesday night in a game that saw just 158 combined points in a game where the total was 217 1/2 points! Obviously well Under the total.

The Clippers brushed away the pesky Dallas Mavericks on Sunday in a game that also landed Under the total.

Will this game to open the semifinals in the Western Conference also hold Under the total?

My thought is, No!

Prior to that Game 7 Under, the Nuggets had played Overs in 3 straight and 13 of their 14 games played in the Orlando bubble! Included was a 111-124 loss to the same Clippers they will face tonight back on August 12th that landed Over the total.

Prior to their Game 6 Under in eliminating the Mavericks, the Clippers had played Over the total in 4 straight and in 9 of 11 which includes that game against the Nuggets that I just mentioned above.

The last pair in this series and 5 of the previous 9 series meetings have landed Over when the teams have played and this one does too.

1* DENVER-L.A. CLIPPERS OVER

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Sports Action 365

FREE MLB WINNER 9/3/20:
PLAY Padres -138 @ Angels, GAME TIME 7:10 PM EST

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine

Woodbine - Race 2	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 0.20 $30,000 Guaranteed Pick 5 (Races 2-3-4-5-6)
Maiden Optional Claiming $25,0 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $48,300 • Post: 3:51P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS THAT HAVE RACED 3 CONSECUTIVE STARTS IN THE MAIDEN OPTIONAL $40,000 / OS CATEGORY IN 2019-20 AND DID NOT FINISH 2ND THRU 5TH. OR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $23,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. ARAMON is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TARA DAWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHOW SOME SKIN: Hor se racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ARAMON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	TARA DAWN	9/2	3/1
4	SHOW SOME SKIN	4/1	6/1
2	ARAMON	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CHERUBIC	3	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	87.7	46.1	37.6
4	SHOW SOME SKIN	4	4/1	Front-runner	69	69	52.4	63.4	55.9
2	ARAMON	2	7/2	Stalker	0	0	61.0	63.4	58.9
1	RUM RAISIN	1	3/1	Trailer	69	60	48.3	56.9	49.9
7	TARA DAWN	7	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	78	74	76.2	72.2	68.2
5	CAPTURE THE MOMENT	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	58	53.8	51.9	41.9

Unknown Running Style: SOUPER CAPACITY (12/1) [Jockey: Chernetz Skye - Trainer: Tiller Robert P], PLEATHER JACKET (6/1) [Jockey: Kimura Kazushi - Trainer: Tiller Robert P].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park

Canterbury Park - Race 3	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 5:35P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR MINNESOTA BRED WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MORE THAN A. P.: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. GOLDEN S CEPTOR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WHATA PERFECT DAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WANNAPLAYBIGCHIEF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SIERRA HOTEL: Horse has run a Good Race w ithin the last 30 days.
6	MORE THAN A. P.	6/1	5/1
2	GOLDEN SCEPTOR	4/1	6/1
4	WHATA PERFECT DAY	2/1	6/1
1	WANNAPLAYBIGCHIEF	3/1	9/1
7	SIERRA HOTEL	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	GOLDEN SCEPTOR	2	4/1	Front-runner	83	78	88.0	82.0	75.0
7	SIERRA HOTEL	7	5/1	Front-runner	80	80	83.4	61.6	49.6
3	HOIST YOUR GLASS	3	15/1	Stalker	73	66	77.6	49.7	38.7
6	MORE THAN A. P.	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	79	91.0	73.9	68.4
4	WHATA PERFECT DAY	4	2/1	Trailer	82	68	63.8	75.4	71.4
5	SILVER MAKER	5	10/1	Trailer	70	68	47.1	58.6	51.1
1	WANNAPLAYBIGCHIEF	1	3/1	Trailer	82	74	14.4	69.2	60.7