Monday 9/7/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Washington Nationals
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Washington is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games at home
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

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Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Cleveland is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City


Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Kansas City is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

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Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Yankees


New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
NY Yankees is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto

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San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
San Francisco is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona


Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Arizona is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco

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Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games at home
Oakland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Houston
Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston


Houston Astros
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland

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San Diego Padres
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games when playing Colorado
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado


Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Colorado is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing San Diego
Colorado is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego

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Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Islanders
Tampa Bay is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing NY Islanders
Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Islanders
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Islanders


New York Islanders
NY Islanders is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
NY Islanders is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
NY Islanders is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
NY Islanders is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Islanders is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Islanders is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Islanders is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
NY Islanders is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

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Navy, BYU Meet for Just the Third Time Ever

The Navy Midshipmen compiled an impressive 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS record in 2019. The Midshipmen will try to build on last season’s success when they take on the BYU Cougars on Monday night at home in the season opener for both teams.


BYU Cougars Vs Navy Midshipmen
Date/Time: September 7, 8 p.m. ET
Stadium: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
TV Coverage: ESPN
Opening Odds: Navy -1.5 | O/U 56.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis
The opening odds on this game have remained consistent with Navy going off as a 1.5-point favorite at home. The total has moved considerably, however, as early bettors on the UNDER have moved the line 4 full points from its opener at 56.5 down to 52.5 points.

BYU News & Notes
Returning junior quarterback Zach Wilson finished last season with 2,382 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions despite missing four games with a fractured thumb. With all three of BYU’s leading wide receivers from last year lost to graduation, Wilson will rely heavily on returning senior tight end Matt Bushman, who led the Cougars in receiving yards with 688 and receiving touchdowns with four last season.

This game will be an interesting test for Wilson, who narrowly beat out a pair of talented sophomore quarterbacks in Jaren Hall and Baylor Romney for the starting job. Navy returns six starters from a defense that ranked 22nd in the nation in total yards against last season. A strong performance against Navy could solidify Wilson’s grasp on the starting role while a weak one could reopen the quarterback conversation.

Navy News & Notes
The Midshipmen lost a special player in senior quarterback Malcolm Perry this offseason. Perry passed for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns and rushed for 2,017 yards and 21 touchdowns to lead Navy to an 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS campaign last season. The Miami Dolphins drafted Perry in the seventh round of the NFL draft on the potential that his athleticism could earn him a spot on the team as a running back or wide receiver.

Senior quarterback Dalen Morris will step in to replace Perry under center in Navy’s dynamic triple-option attack. He will be joined in the backfield by fullback Jamale Carothers, who finished second on the team in rushing yards with 734 and rushing touchdowns with 14 last season. Morris’s play at quarterback will play a large role in determining how far this year’s Navy team goes.

Betting Pick: Midshipmen -2

Dalen Morris has spent plenty of time in Navy’s system and should have no trouble making the right reads in the triple option. BYU’s defense should take a step forward after a rough year in 2019, but against this tricky offensive attack, the Cougars probably won’t be able to find enough stops to secure the upset.

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College Football
BRIGHAM YOUNG COUGARS VS. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Navy Win -1.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 48.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Week one of the College Football season concludes on Labor Day as we have an intriguing match-up between the Navy Midshipmen and the BYU Cougars. Navy had a solid season last year, finishing 9-2 after a bowl win against the Kansas State Wildcats. BYU on the other hand, finished with a record of 7-5, losing their bowl game to Hawaii. Given the circumstances, this is going to be a tough game for BYU. They were already below average at stopping the run last season, allowing 167.5 yards per game, ranking 78th, but now they have to face a Navy triple-option when they probably have not had all that much time to prepare. Yes, it is true that Navy lost Malcolm Perry, who was essentially a legend at the school, but even with a less experienced quarterback, the option can be deadly.

Dalen Morris is expected to get the start for the Midshipmen and reports suggest he might be throwing more than usual. This is scary for the Cougars because they were not that great against the pass either, having allowed 265 yards per game last season, which ranked 65th.

For the Cougars, they return their starting quarterback, Zack Wilson. The Cougars ranked 26th in 2019 in passing offense, averaging 284.7 yards per game. The main issue here is that BYU likely have lost their start tight end, Matt Bushman, due to injury, so that really could limit how productive they are on the offensive end. Plus Navy was 10th in the country last season at defending the run, I do not expect BYU to be very productive in this spot.

Navy may have a new quarterback, but I think they have more offensive weapons and will be able to whittle down this Cougars defense to win this game and cover the small spread. ★★


Game Totals Pick
The opening weekend of College Football produced a ton of unders in games that in normal circumstances, may have gone way over. Though a small sample size, five of the eight games played this weekend went under the total. I believe conditioning played a role in this with pretty much every team not having the same offseason due to the pandemic. The Midshipmen are still a run first team, which is going to bleed the clock considerably. Both teams had top 50 scoring defenses, with Navy allowing 22.3 points per game and BYU allowing 25.5 points per game. The new quarterback situation for Navy is likely going to lead to a sluggish start, but the loss of several key weapons for the Cougars is also going to slow them down offensively. As a result, I am going to back an under as a lean and look for a low scoring opener. ★

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NBA
TORONTO RAPTORS VS. BOSTON CELTICS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

BOS Celtics Win -1.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 212.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
The Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics will square off in a crucial Game 5 on Monday, with this Eastern Conference semifinal series tied 2-2. Boston should have been up 3-0 but lost Game 3 on a wild buzzer-beater, after which tied the series by winning again on Saturday. Until Game 4, the Celtics were without question the better of the two teams in the playoffs. Their first-round sweep of a flawed but dangerous Philadelphia squad was especially impressive. Jayson Tatum has been Boston’s best player in the postseason and he rebounded from a rough Game 3 with 24 points on 55.6 percent shooting to go along with 10 rebounds and three assists in Game 4. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five against opponents with winning percentages over .600 and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference semifinal contests. Go with Boston.


Game Totals Pick
Four games is a big enough sample size to have a pretty good idea of how games in this series are going to go. The winning team has scored between 100 and 112 points every time; the losing team has finished within the 93-103 range on all occasions. In other words, not a lot of points are being scored. Nobody on Toronto is averaging 20.0 ppg or more during the playoffs. The under is 6-0 in the Celtics’ last six overall and 5-0-1 in their last six against opponents with winning percentages over .600. It is also 4-0 in the Raptors’ last four overall and 6-0 in their last six against opponents with winning records. Additionally, the under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the teams. The under is the way to go.

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MLB
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS. NEW YORK METS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

PHI Phillies Win Money Line
-115

Under 8.5 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
Zack Wheeler returns to his former home ballpark for the first time since he signed for the Phillies for what his former general manager Brodie van Wagenen described as “more than we were willing to give him”. Wheeler has already proved the Mets wrong, beginning the 2020 season with a 4-0 record and a 2.29 ERA, including a win in Philadelphia against the Mets. The Mets broke out for 14 runs on Sunday, but they’re not the kind of team that can consistently put up big numbers like that, and their batting average with runners in scoring position is dead-last in the entire Major Leagues. They turn to lefty David Peterson, back in the rotation after making one appearance out of the bullpen. Peterson has been one of the few bright spots this year in the Mets’ rotation, but he struggled in his last start against the Yankees, allowing three runs and lasting just 4.0 innings. The Phillies had won 10 out of 11 games prior to Saturday, so look for them to start a new streak with a win on Monday.


Game Totals Pick
Wheeler has undoubtedly been worth the money he was paid, at least so far this season. Peterson threw four scoreless innings of relief on Wednesday in Baltimore to pick up a win, already his fourth of the season. Both pitchers are pitching well, the Phillies were held to just two runs over the past two days, and the Mets can hit a team-wide cold streak at any time, especially due to the tendency that ex-Mets usually seem to excel against their old team. Back the under.

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MLB
MIAMI MARLINS VS. ATLANTA BRAVES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

ATL Braves Win Money Line
-200

Over 9.0 Game Totals
+100

Money Line Pick
The Marlins are still clinging onto playoff hopes, but a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday dropped them below .500 with three weeks to play. They’ll send Jose Urena to the mound to make his first start of the season after recovering from Covid-19. Urena will face a familiar face to kick off his return when Ronald Acuna steps in to lead off for the Braves. Urena infamously began a game two years ago by throwing at Acuna, who has a .308 average against Urena. He certainly won’t be trying that again on Monday afternoon, but it seems as if everything he has tried in his career against the Braves hasn’t worked – Urena is 2-8 with a 6.64 ERA against Atlanta, and his ability to pitch deep into the game is a major question mark, making his first start of the season after overcoming a debilitating virus. The Braves’ lineup has been on fire recently, scoring ten runs on Sunday for the third time in a week. They should keep up their hot streak by defeating Urena and the Marlins.


Game Totals Pick
Braves starter Ian Anderson has impressed through the first two starts of his big-league career, but he still has a ways to go before proving himself as an effective Major League pitcher over a sustained period of time. He went six innings in each of his last two starts, getting the win in both but not keeping his opponents scoreless in either. The way the Braves’ offense has exploded in the last week, one or two Miami runs should be all you need for the over to hit.

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MLB
DETROIT TIGERS VS. MINNESOTA TWINS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

MIN Twins Win Money Line
-200

Under 8.5 Game Totals
+105

Money Line Pick
The Tigers’ high-scoring win over the Twins on Sunday ensures that they’ll be able to go home without being swept, but they’ll have a much tougher time Monday afternoon facing Michael Pineda. Pineda was impressive in his first start in a year on Tuesday, tossing six innings of two-run ball against the White Sox, walking just one. His injury, legal and doping issues all appear to be in the past, and this looks like a man who is still young and ready to thrive on the opportunity of a second chance. A seven-season veteran of the American League, Pineda has faced the Tigers plenty and has had success, notching a 3-2 lifetime record. He is opposed by Michael Fulmer, who has been one of the worst starters in the league this season. In six starts, Fulmer is 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA and, most shockingly, is averaging less than three innings per start. He’s walking batters, giving up hits, and allowing a homer per start, not a recipe for success against the team that led the big leagues in long balls last season. Take the Twins.


Game Totals Pick
Fulmer, though, did show more promising signs his last time out. While he still gave up three hits and two walks in just 3.0 innings, he escaped without allowing any runs and struck out six. We don’t have enough of a sample size on post-suspension Pineda to know if he’ll be able to keep up with how he pitched his first time out, but he definitely encouraged lots of Twins fans with his performance. Look for a low-scoring Labor Day game and take the under.

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MLB
NEW YORK YANKEES VS. TORONTO BLUE JAYS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

TOR Blue Jays Win -1.5 Run Line
+130

Over 9.0 Game Totals
-120

Run Line Pick
You know this season is weird when the Yankees enter this Labor Day game as underdogs after losing a series with the Baltimore Orioles. New York has fallen off big time, to the point where they might be in danger of missing out on the playoffs. With three losses over the weekend to Baltimore, it makes it five losses out of their last six games. They will start Jordan Montgomery in this spot to just try and stop the bleeding. Though Montgomery has by no means had a good season. He is currently 2-2, but has an ERA of 5.76. He is coming off a start against the Rays where he did not even make it out of the first inning an allowed four earned runs.

Hyun Jin Ryu will be on the mound for Toronto and will be looking for his 4th win of the season. He is 3-1 with an ERA of 2.51. Ryu has done a phenomenal job of recovering from a poor start to his campaign. His first two starts saw him allow eight runs across 9.0 innings. Since then, he has allowed just four runs over 34.0 innings.

Given the state of the Yankees right now, I cannot trust them. Even at a plus money price, they are struggling far too much. The Blue Jays on the other hand, are seeing the ball extremely well, so I will look for Ryu to have another great start and will back Toronto here on the run line. ★


Game Totals Pick
Usually you can expect the Yankees to light up the scoreboard almost every night with their power and their great contact hitters. Recently, that has not been the case. In the series against Baltimore, New York scored a total of 11 runs. That is an average of 2.75 runs over the last four games. They are allowing an average of 5.5 runs over the same stretch, so their pitching, especially their starting pitcher has been sub par. The Blue Jays have been the complete opposite, averaging 6.8 runs over their last five games (all against the Red Sox), while allowing 5.8 runs during the same stretch. The Yankees’ offense may not be scoring much, but I think that changes here. The main problem will be hitting Ryu for the Yankees lineup. Though Ryu has an 0-2 career record against the Yankees with an ERA of 8.71, so I would expect them to few at least a few. Neither bullpen is pitching particularly well, so in the later innings is when I would expect this game to really open up offensively. As a result, I will look for there to be plenty of scoring and will lean to the over. ★

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SF Giants Win Money Line
-130

Under 9.0 Game Totals
-110

Money Line Pick
Two NL West rivals will wrap up their weekend series as the Giants host the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon. Arizona will turn to Alex Young, while the Giants will start Johnny Cueto. Cueto is 2-0 on the year, but has an ERA of 4.75. He had his best start of the season last time out, going 6.2 innings against this very Arizona team and allowing one run.

On the other side will be Young for the Diamondbacks. He is 1-2 on the season and has an ERA of 4.50. He has just four starts this season, going 0-2 with an ERA of 4.42. His other appearances have been in relief, a total of seven trips out of the bullpen.

While Cueto has been somewhat inconsistent, his start against Arizona was promising and I think he can follow it up here with another one. The Diamondbacks are just 2-8 in their last 10 games, and are not a team I am looking to back. Because of their recent woes, I will take the Giants as a lean. ★


Game Totals Pick
The Diamondbacks are not a very high scoring team and with the struggles they had against Cueto, I do not expect them to have much success here either. The under is 6-2 in their eight head to head meetings this season, so a lower scoring game looks to be the most likely outcome. Even with Young on the mound, it is worth noting that he has not allowed more than three runs in any of his starts, so as long as he avoids early damage, he should be able to settle in nicely. San Francisco has shown the ability to score a ton of runs, but I do not think they will be able to do so here, so a lean to the under will be my play. ★