Service Plays Sunday 9/13/20

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris:

3 Unit Play. Take #457 New York Jets +6.5 over Buffalo Bills (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
The Bills have posted a 1-3-1 record in their last five games where they faced a team from the AFC and they closed out their 2019 season by failing to cover the number in four of their last five games. As for the Jets, they have been decent in the spot they are in here as they have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games where they were listed as the underdog. Throw in the fact that the road team has covered each of the last four head to head meetings between the two teams along with the fact that the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last ten and we're taking the points here with the Jets as we're not quite ready to lay nearly a TD with the Bills.
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #463 Philadelphia Eagles PK AND #456 Baltimore Ravens -1.5 (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
4 Unit 6 Point Teaser. Take #460 Carolina Panthers +9 AND #465 Chicago Bears +9 (1:00 PM, Sunday, September 13)
5 Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona Cardinals +7 over San Francisco 49ers (4:25 PM, Sunday, September 13)
The Cardinals have posted a perfect 3-0-1 ATS record in their last four road games and they have that same perfect 3-0-1 ATS record in their last four road games where they were listed as an underdog. The Niners, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Sunday as they have gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games where they faced an NFC West Division rival and they are an awful 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games where they were listed as the favorite. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals 10-4-2 ATS in their last sixteen games where they were catching points and we're taking the points with them here in a game that we have a bit closer than the odds makers do in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon.
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #475 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 AND Over 42 (4:25 PM, Sunday, September 13)
4 Unit 6-Point Teaser. Take #478 Los Angeles Rams +9 AND Under 57.5 (8:20 PM, Sunday, September 13, NBC)

[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports
NFL - All 2 Unit Plays
Green Bay Packers +2.5
Washington Redskins +6
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
Los Angeles Rams +3
Miami Dolphins +7
Miami Dolphins/New England Patriots Under 42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAY
Dallas -3

SINGLE PLAYS:
Cleveland +7.5
Carolina +3
Detroit +3
Indianapolis -8
Arizona +7
Tampa Bay +3.5
LA Chargers-Cincinnati under 42

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

NFL

Atlanta+2.5 @ seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

MAIN EVENT NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL of the MONTH

5% Colts-Jags under 46

PLAY the total UNDER 46 points. (this 5% play is good top 43 points)
5% play rating

(467) Indianapolis Colts at (468) Jacksonville Jaguars

As Finn wrote this past weekend "Handicapping American Football involves a large number of variables. Some of the numbers and philosophies are tangible and others are not-so-much. Take distance for example. Measurement in inches or feet, centimeters, or meters are in fact tangible.

The best way to describe who the Jacksonville Jaguars are is as follows. The 2020 Jags are so far from being a contender for the NFL championship the distance is measured in light-years. The distance between Jacksonville and a division title is a distance that is best imagined rather than written in fear there may well be young children browsing the world wide web and run across the truth about their favorite NFL team.

The talent in training camp and in the locker room as the Jags prepare for Week 1 season opener on September 13th will find the Jaguars with less talent,

The offense lacks confident playmakers and the defense has a number of players that are too quick to be placed on injured reserve. How much of a mess is this Jacksonville team going to make and play like this 2020 season? Looking at the list of weekly Sunday games and the look-ahead lines you'll find that the Jaguars are not a favorite. Not once are the player personnel of Jacksonville favored to win in the first 17 weeks of the regular-season slate in every sportsbook look-ahead point spreads.

Those that are informed and cynical are convinced that the Jags will most likely be, or already are, the recipients of the 2021 overall No. 1 pick. And that player is the first piece of the franchise puzzle of returning to NFL relevance. That player of course is Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence.

And those outside of Florida that have yet to hear or read what the Jaguars moto is for the 2020 season let it be known that chants of"Tank for Trevor" will be whispered, muttered, and screamed throughout the season.

Projected starting QB Gardner Minshew did enough to impress in his rookie season that he enters 2020 with the training camp no-contact jersey. Defensively the current staff under the guidance of coach Marone has either traded away or run-off the best of the unit. Defensive lineman Yannick Ngakoue wants out of Jacksonville and has yet to sign the non-exclusive franchise tender the organization placed on him.

The Jaguars applied the non-exclusive franchise tag to him on March 13, but he has yet to sign the tender. The Vegas and Offshore oddsmakers have set the Season Win Total for Jacksonville at 4.5 games. And as I mentioned in the early portion of this 2020 team preview the Jags are not a pre-game favorite in the way-to-early look-ahead lines for any of their 16 regular-season games [at the time this article went to press].

Key Additions: QB Mike Glennon,, TE Tyler Eifert, TE, DL Rodney Gunter, CB Rashaan Melvin, CB, LB Joe Schobert, RB Chris Thompson, DT Al Woods

Key Losses: QB Nick Foles, WR Marqise Lee, TE Geoff Swaim, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, DE Calais Campbell, DT Marcell Dareus, LB Jake Ryan, CB A.J. Bouye

UNDER the TOTAL of 46 points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels

NFL Totals GOW

4% Ravens-Browns under 49

The Ravens offense surprised many last season but now DC's have had a full season to prep. The Browns offense will be the "Vikings of the AFC" with their new head coach as they will have a FB and use multiple TE's and will be a run first team. With both teams running I expect this clock to keep running. Week #1 DIV games with a total of 45 1/2 and higher are 58% to the Under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cowherd Blazin 5

---

Balt
jets
falcons
panthers
rams

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast top 6 futures
NYJ to win less than 7 games
Indy to win more than 9 games
Cleve. to win less than 8.5 games
Miami to win more than 6 games
LA Rams to win more than 8.5 games
Det. to win less than 7 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5
Bears over 43

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R. J. White

ARIZONA +7
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
WED 9/9
I expect this line to come down, so if you like the Cardinals jump on them now. Arizona nearly beat San Francisco twice last season, and this version of the 49ers doesn't have nearly as much upside with its beat-up receiving corps. The Cardinals added a good amount of talent in the offseason, and they'll be hungry to prove they belong among the contenders in this division. The 49ers have also had to deal with the distraction of the wildfires in the area, which could even cause uncertainty on whether this game is played on time. There's too much to like with the Cards in this one.

15-9 IN LAST 24 SF ATS PICKS | +510

NEW ORLEANS -3.5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/13 | 4:25 PM EDT
WED 9/9
This is the one favorite I love in Week 1. The Saints are one of the best teams in the league, and I feel like they're the clear front-runner in the NFC. The Bucs have plenty of unanswered questions since we have yet to see Tom Brady in this offense, and now he might be without Mike Evans in Week 1. That would make the Bucs offense much easier to defend, as would Leonard Fournette getting decent run despite him still being new to the offense, as the Tampa Bay staff has intimated will happen. Unless the Bucs come up with a huge defensive effort, I think New Orleans wins with ease.

19-8-4 IN LAST 31 TB ATS PICKS | +1008

5-2 IN LAST 7 NO ATS PICKS | +269

GREEN BAY +2.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
WED 9/9
I have some serious questions about this Vikings team, from an offensive line where the left tackle thought he was getting cut before agreeing to a contract restructure, to a receiving corps without Stefon Diggs, to a defensive line that put its best player on IR and is trying to get trade acquisition Yannick Ngakoue up to speed, to a Vikings secondary that lost three key corners and is replacing them with a lot of youth. Minnesota's cap woes mean they lost a lot this season, so while the Packers didn't do much to improve, they still return most of their solid team. Green Bay is better, and Minnesota won't have much of a home-field advantage with no fans.

36-6 IN LAST 42 GB ATS PICKS | +2927

33-9-3 IN LAST 45 MIN ATS PICKS | +2292

[golden contender]

Rob V: Sunday Comp Play

Sunday NFL Opening Week Play of The Year Headlines a big 4 game pack with a TOP Sunday night football Side. There is an NBA 6* and MLB. NFL Comp Play

The NFL Comp play for Sunday is on the NY. Jets plus the 5-6 points. NY fits an opening week System that plays on divisional dogs with a total of less than 48 vs an opponent with revenge. The Jets lost a heart breaker by 1 point in the opening week at home to Buffalo and never really recovered. Now they open up in Buffalo and we note that the road team has covered the last 4 and the favorite in the series is just 2-8 ats. NY has covered 7 of 8 in divisional road games in the first month of the season and 4 of the last 5 as a dog overall. Look for them to get the cover here. On Sunday we have a huge 4 game NFL Card led by the Opening week Game of the year, a big winner last year on this play. We also have a TOP Sunday night play and a pair of 5* System sides. In early action a rare NBA Perfect System game 6 play. We also have NHL Game 4 Historical System and another huge MLB Card. See us or on facebook to jump on. For the NFL Comp play. Go with the Jet and the 6 points. Rob V-GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5
1Bears over 43

ADDED

added
.5 wash +3 fh .5 wash +6 full game
.5 Arz +7
.5 Ariz team total over 19.5 -120 or over 20 -110 is fine too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

NFL:

1 Clev +8
2 Buff -6.5,
1 LV -3,
1 under 47 lv/car,
3 Det -3,
2 LAC -3,
1 Under 43.5 lac/Cincy,
7 Arizona +7,
2 over 47 zona/sf,
1 dall -3,
2 under 52 dall/la

Teaser:
2 buff pk, ind -1.5,
1 wash +13, ind -1,
1 clev +15, Zona +14,
1 Ind -1, det +4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno

Week 1 NFL Blue Chip

5% Cards-49ers over 45.5

In the first season of HC Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure, upstart Arizona took the Super Bowl runner-up right down to the wire in each matchup. Now with a full year of familiarity and cohesiveness under their belts, the Cardinals figure to be even more formidable. The Arizona offense gave San Francisco some trouble last season scoring 25 & 26 points in their two contests. Cardinals dual threat QB Kyler Murray was especially problematic going 41/57/391 (71.9% comp) with four TD passes and 0 interceptions. Murray’s added running dimension provided another 101 yards on 13 carries (7.8 avg.) and a touchdown. What’s impressive about the Cardinals offense in these games last season is the length of their scoring drives as seven of their nine covered 67+ yards and only one started on the San Francisco side of the field. Add in All-Pro WR DeAndre Hopkins and Arizona figures to be more dynamic and tougher to match up with this season. Must also note San Francisco’s offensive success in last season’s games as they racked up 853 total yards (411 & 442) resulting in 58 points (had 1 defensive TD). Even more impressive is that they did it without their elite LT Joe Staley in both games and without starting RT Mike McGlinchey in one of them. Signing ex-Redskins LT Trent Williams to take Staley’s place this season should keep the OL as one of the league’s best. The situation NFL teams are presently in could somewhat hinder the ability for lengthy offseason Week #1 preparation. In this case, that figures to favor these powerful offenses which have already proven to be capable of producing points against each other. Current total of 46 allows ticket cashing on key numbers of 47 & 48 which presents a strong opportunity. Going to take advantage of the number and play “Over” 45.5.

Recommendation: Arizona-San Francisco OVER 45.5

Note: This play remains a 5% play up to 47.5 and becomes a 4% if the number hits 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Josephs

Season Win Totals Best Bet

3% Los Angeles Rams under 8.5 (-140)


I'm just not a buyer of the Rams despite their supposed genius of a head coach. I don't like Jared Goff and I think their RBs are highly mediocre as a unit. The defensive front seven is pretty strong, but outside of Jalen Ramsey, I'm not a fan of their secondary. The division is also improved with the Cardinals getting more talent. The biggest reason I like the under here as well is because of their schedule. Let's take a look at the slate and I'll show you that things get REAL rough early on.

(Spreads from an online book for every game)

Week 1 - Rams (+2.5) vs. Cowboys -- Sunday Night home opener against the supposed favorites of the NFC East -- L
Week 2 - Rams (+4) @ Eagles -- Trip east to play an Eagles team that has had their number lately and is better - L
Week 3 - Rams (+3) @ Bills -- West coast team probably stays East and plays a grinding Bills team that is better - L
Week 4 - Rams (-7.5) vs. NYG - Sleepy spot here as they return home to take on a Giants team that could be better - W (Giants will make it interesting.
Week 5 - Rams (-5) @ Skins -- ANOTHER road trip east to play a Washington D that will be fierce. No guarantees here either - W
Week 6 - Rams (+7) @ 49ers -- ANOTHER road game although back on the West coast. Rams have to be tired by now. - L
Week 7 - Rams (-3.5) vs. Bears -- MNF against another brutal defense. If they find a QB then there's no reason Chicago can't win. - W
Week 8 - Rams (-3) @ Dolphins -- Short week and ANOTHER trip east to prepare for a Dolphins team that will be better - L

(Bye week record is 3-5, but NONE of these games are a guarantee)

Week 10 - Rams (-1.5) vs. Seattle -- Tight spread for the rivalry game against a Seattle team that is talented - W
Week 11 - Rams (+3.5) @ Bucs (MNF) - ANOTHER trip east to play Tom Brady and a rejuvenated Bucs team - L
Week 12 - Rams (+2.5) vs. SF -- Short week at home against a Niners team coming off a bye week. - L
Week 13 - Rams (Pick) @ Arizona -- No guarantees here as Jalen Ramsey can only cover one stud WR. These two split - L
Week 14 - Rams (-4) vs. Patriots - Short week to host the Patriots. Should be a win, but Belichick has proven to out-coach McVay - W
Week 15 - Rams (-7) vs. Jets -- Easiest game of the schedule. Should be a win too - W
Week 16 - Rams (+3.5) @ Seattle -- Can't pick the Rams on the road. I'm guessing there's fans in the stands by this game - L
Week 17 - Rams (-6) vs. Cardinals -- I'll give LA a win here mostly because neither team will have something to play for - W

I've got the Rams going 7-9 which gives you a cushion on the 8's and the 8.5's. I feel a lot better about Under 8.5, but if the juice is right, go for the under 8. This team got NO favors when it comes to schedule.