If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Game: (459) Las Vegas Raiders at (460) Carolina Panthers Date/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Over 48.0 (-110)
TOP PLAY on our first big Sunday of the new Covid 2020 NFL season and a spot we think is WILDLY underrated, maybe almost a hidden aspect of the slate! (PLAY THIS LIKE A 5% PLAY!!!!!!)
Let's do quick snapshots of small aspects we have here....
Raiders are a road favorite against the extremely new look Panthers playing in Charlotte, by a margin of 3 points...so sight unseen we have a position where the Raiders would be nearly a double digit favorite were this venue flipped to Vegas....if you would agree with that, stop reading...if Panthers +9.5 would probably be your play of the decade, keep rolling with me here...
Twice the Raiders under Gruden have been road favorites and in each of those contests they allowed 34 points to the home team...while scoring 3.....3 total points! Now this would not be enough to cover our total here clearly, but we have a home team here who is almost in roster disarray on the defensive side. Hall of Famer Luke Kuechly retired following 2019 at just 29 years old, Poe and McCoy are gone, Bradberry was too expensive, Irvin, Addison, and Reid were all allowed to go, leaving just Short, Boston, and Donte Jackson really from the core of the defense under Rivera from last season. Matt Rhule wasn't brought in for his defensive prowess either, as an offensive guru, so this really isn't all that crazy. However, Teddy Bridgewater and Robbie Anderson were brought in and they moved on from Olson at TE, moving Ian Thomas into the lead role.
Offense offense offense is what I see from Carolina...and against the Vegas D this should be fun to watch...Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS in his short career as a dog, and here he is at home, against a team traveling all the way across the country...and with a defense that ranked 24th overall in 2019....but they are traveling to Charlotte to play a defense that ranked 31st in overall defense....BEFORE they completely took a facelift due to FA and retirements!
I am not sure why this hasn't sky rocketed up further toward 50, but I power rank this as a floor of 27-23 and a ceiling of 38-35 and the value here is NUTS....especially for a week 1 game!
Game: (455) Cleveland Browns at (456) Baltimore Ravens Date/Time: Sep 13 2020 1:00 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4% Play: Cleveland Browns +8.0 (-110)
DOES THIS MAKE ME A SHEEP?
Maybe it does, but wow this line is BATSHIT craziness to the nth degree. I line this game in the 4 range, but I also think the Browns are at least as likely to the be the outright dog winner of the day.
Here's what we know....
The Browns MASSIVELY underachieved their SB expectations of 2019, and the Ravens went nuts all over everyone and by a lot of points regularly, had the MVP in Lamar Jackson, then came crashing down hard to the Titans in the playoffs where they barely were competitive in the playoff game....solved?....maybe....but this number of points as a division rival and hated rival and with the wild dichotomy of last season....this line REEKS, and the public so eager to fade the Browns and Baker and OBJ and FO "disarray" and new head coach, therefore new system....I'll gladly go the other way....with a tiny wager on the ML if we're being honest.....but who cares, because the Browns getting the most points on the slate is LOONEY TOONS!
Triple Dime: Jags
Double Dime: Vikings under 44.5 - 2* Play at 44 or better..
Double Dime: Cowboys over 51 - 2* OVER at 53 or better
Analysis: There are a number of reasons to love this play and we spotted it with all 3 models agreeing that this number is too high considering all to consider including the lack of practice and game time for NFL Teams this season. That does make a huge difference, especially for a Colts Squad who lay this many points in week one after struggling offensively last year. Defense will be ahead of offenses as the season begins and Indy does have a quality one. But the Jags have made improvements on both sides of the ball and we should see Gruden's bunch perform much better than the 6-10 squad did last season. We have a lot more to say here and we will will soon but let's get this one now while there are still some 7.5's to be had. We would play this one at +6 or better though. More to come as we get closer to game time which is still far away.
Game Week Notes: The news has not been great out of Jacksonville if you have been keeping up and this number is 8 to 9 now. We do still love this play though but adjusting our play down to number to +7.
Comment