Service Plays Sunday 9/20/20

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BOB BALFE

NFL
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #274
Colts -3 over Vikings
Both teams coming this game 0-1 to start the season. Minnesota doesn’t look right offensively with the departure of Stefon Diggs, but the real story is the once great defense this team had is a thing of the past. This team just doesn’t have much talent anymore nor do they have a lot of quality depth. It’s actually the Colts Defense that could be the next dynasty as they have experience and talent in all levels of their defense. Marlon Mack will be a tough loss for the Colts, but I believe Phillip Rivers will throw the ball more and duplicate the game plan Aaron Rodgers and the Packers had last week. The Vikings simply can’t cover and will have a hard time keeping up on the scoreboard. Keep in mind this is a brand new offensive and defensive system for Minnesota as they brought in two new coordinators this year. Head Coach Mike Zimmer is on the clock. Take the Colts.

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the odds crusher

Atlanta Braves +107
cubs over 7.5 runs
Denver Nuggets +7.5
New York Giants +5.5
Philadelphia Eagles -1.5
over 47 chiefs/chargers

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Vernon Croy

8u Atlanta / Dallas (o53) - 1pm EST
4u Tampa Bay (-8.5) ov Carolina - 1pm EST

Add

6 LV +6

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Vegas Line Reader

NFL MAX Play: Detroit Lions +6

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Lee Sterling

30 Indy
25 (2TT) TB and LAC
25 Hous
20 Buff

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Maddux

20 philly

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MLB CAPPERS
YANKEES-1.5 runs
STL CARDINALS-159
CHICAGO WHITE SOCKS+120

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MTI

4.5-Star Panthers +8.5 over Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is off a road loss in New Orleans in which they punted the ball away five times. This has not been a good spot for them, as they are 0-11 ATS (-9.82 ppg) when they are off road loss in which they punted the ball away four-plus times and are facing a team that has forced fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:

team=Buccaneers and p:AL and oA(ounts)<4 and punts>=4 and season >= 2008

The Panthers qualify for a league-wide, multi-season system that reads, Road dogs on grass are 23-0 ATS when they are off a loss as a dog in which they had fewer than three interceptions and fewer than three passing TDs and they are facing a team that has an average turnover margin of at least plus one-half and has averaged fewer than 28 ppg. The SDQL text is:

AD and surface=grass and p:LD and p:PTD<3 and p:INT<3 and oA(TOM)>=0.5 and oA(points) < 28 and date>=20151012

These road dogs are 16-5 straight up.

As a dog in New Orleans, the Bucs could not afford to be conservative. Here they are a big home favorite and we expect a conservative approach, and this should allow the Panthers to stay within this huge number. Bruce Arians has been a favorite by more than eight points six times in his coaching career. He is 0-6 ATS and he lost two of his last three straight up. The SDQL text is:

coach = Bruce Arians and line < -8

Taking the points is the way to go here.



4.5-Star Falcons +3.5 over Cowboys

The Falcons had 506 yards of offense last week and held the Seahawks to 383, but they lost 38-25. A contribution factor was a 2-0 turnover margin. This is a positive indicator for Atlanta, as NFL teams are 9-0 ATS in week two off a 500-plus yard performance on the opening Sunday when they did not have a positive takeaway margin. The SDQL text is:

p:TY>=500 and p:day=Sunday and week=2 and p:TOM>=0

Dallas won eight games last season and they started this season with a loss as a road favorite to the Rams. This slots the Cowboys into a play-against spot, as teams that went 8-8 last season are 0-16 at home on Sunday in week two when they lost their opener, they are not getting more than a field goal, and their opponent is not off a 24-plus point win as an underdog. The SDQL text for this one is:

wins=0 and losses =1 and PRSW=8 and H and day=Sunday and not (op and op:margin>=24) and line <= 3

As a team, Dallas is 0-18 ATS as a favorite on artificial turf when they are off a game as a favorite in which they converted fewer than five third downs and completed better than 60% of their passes and 0-13-1 ATS as a home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they are off a SU and ATS loss. The SDQL for these are:

team=Cowboys and F and surface=artificial and p:F and p:3DM<=4 and p:CP>60 and date>=20071200

and

team=Cowboys and HF and NDIV and p:L and p:ATSL and date>=20091213

The Falcons quick strike offense gives them the possibility of a legit cover and, if they dont get that, a backdoor cover. Grab the points.



4-Star Rams at Eagles under 45.5

The Eagles converted 5 of 14 third down attempts and punted the ball away five times in their week one 27-17 loss as a road favorite in Washington. This activates the following league-wide, multi-season system: Since the start of the 2017 season, teams are 0-28 OU off a SU and ATS loss as a road favorite in which they allowed at least one TD, converted fewer than 45% of their third downs and punted the ball away at least five times, as long as the total is at least 40. The SDQL text is:

surface=grass and p:LAF and p:ATSL and po:TD>0 and p:3DP<45 and punts>=5 and season >= 2017 and total>=40

The average score in these 28 games has been 17.4 to 14.2. Wow.

The linesmakers rate this one close to pick so we expect both teams to start cautiously. Philadelphia will try to protect Wentz by featuring the run and quick passes whereas the Rams will sit back and wait for the Eagles to make a mistake. Both teams should feel they can win with 20 points. We are on the Under.




4-Star Ravens Texans UNDER 50

The Texans were beaten badly by the Chiefs in week one and now they have to face the other AFC powerhouse in week two. Houstons week one result qualifies them for a Golden Goose league-wide system. It reads, Teams that won double-digit games the previous season are 0-23 OU when they are off a road loss in which they committed more turnovers than their opponent and the team they are facing has averaged 1.5 or fewer turnovers per game and is off a win in which they committed fewer turnovers than their opponent. The SDQL text is:

PRSW>=10 and p:AL and op:W and p:TO>po:TO and op:TO=20151200

Last season there were two active games, and both stayed under by double-digits.

Finally, we note that Baltimore is 0-15 OU on artificial turf when they are off a win and they are facing a team that has scored less than 17% of their points from field goals season-to-date. We are going Under this number.

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Westgate NFL Super Contest
Top 5 picks
KC 401
GB 306
SF 302
NYG 293
PHI 290

[CappaCollins]

Paul Leiner 3000* play anybody?? TIA

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Bondi

7* Arizona
3* Philadelphia
3* Indianapolis

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JH Sportsline

4* Miami

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Al demarco

Top-Rated 15 Dime Release

Ravens

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Jack Brayman

40 Dime
NFL Winner # 23 of 35

NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

40 dime over Ravens Texans

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Kirby Maxwell

30 dime

Washington football team