Service Plays Sunday 9/27/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

MINNESOTA +2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:20 AM
The Titans are 2-0 to start the season but that record hides a lot of flaws. The two wins have come by a combined five points against a pair of teams nobody expects much from in 2020. Last week, despite beating Jacksonville, the Jaguars put up 480 yards of offense on the Titans defense. A bunch of running backs you never heard of averaged 6.1 yards per carry against the Titans defense. Now they're favored on the road against a Vikings team that loves to run the ball and has Dalvin Cook.

3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN ATS PICKS | +192

4-2 IN LAST 6 TEN ATS PICKS | +185

CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
10:17 AM
The loss of Christian McCaffery was a huge blow to the Panthers and fantasy owners everywhere, but I see it as an opportunity here. I watched Justin Herbert's entire college career. I've seen him when he's good, and I've seen him when he does things like throw back across his body into double-coverage 30 yards downfield. So you'll have to excuse me if I'm not ready to trust that guy as a favorite yet.

3-1 IN LAST 4 CAR ATS PICKS | +193

DETROIT +5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
10:15 AM
The Lions are 0-2 after blowing leads in each of their first two games, and now they're hitting the road to take on a Cardinals team that's looked strong to start the season. The difference for Detroit this week will be the return of Kenny Golladay, as his absence has had a major impact on Matthew Stafford and an offense that loved to push the ball vertically last season. That element has been missing this year. It'll be back with Golladay, and while I don't know if the Lions get their first win, they'll get their first cover.

5-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ATS PICKS | +386

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

NFL Best Bets

ATLANTA -3

CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT

Mitch Trubisky against Matt Ryan is a total mismatch. The Bears are typically terrible on the road, and the Falcons are loaded with talent. They're home on the turf, and they're a fast-break team. That will work in their favor and against the Bears.

ARIZONA -5.5

DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT

The Lions have lost 11 straight games. They have no pass rush, their cornerbacks are hurt, and they're facing a Cardinals offense that's clicking with Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake and DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona plays an up-tempo offense that Detroit can't possibly keep up with.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
462 NEP -6.0(-110) Southpoint vs 461 LVR double-dime bet

Analysis: The situation heavily favors New England in this matchup. The Patriots are 42-18 ATS since 2003 off a loss, with a cover margin of over six points per game. Las Vegas is off an emotional win on Monday Night, and now they travel to the east coast on a short week. Under Jon Gruden, the Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record.


My original concern was that New England might not be able to cover margin, but Cam Newton is playing excellent football right now, rejuvenating this New England offense. Newton has completed 71.4% of his passes for 8.8 Y/A, and Vegas has allowed 8.1 Y/A through two weeks.


Las Vegas is also dealing with potential cluster injures on the offensive line in RT Trent Brown and LG Richie Incognito.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp



Adds:
469 Tennessee Titans first half Over 23.5 -130 (0.5 units)
481 Detroit Lions first half Over 25.5 -120 (0.5 units) [note: we are already on the full game over but this is a value grab - note: if your line is 27 do not bet, stick with over 54 for the game]
487 Green Bay Packers team total Over 23.5 -120 (0.75 units)
___
Early week 3 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins Over 46 (0.75 units)

2 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins +3 (0.75 units)
462 New England Patriots -5 (1 unit)
481 Detroit Lions Over 54 (1 unit)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

InkBets

NFL: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.909/-110 (3.5 Units)
-It's very, very hard to see a team involving Sean Payton & Drew Brees getting embarrassed on national television in back to back weeks. I expect a concerted effort from the Saints compared to what they put out last week vs the Raiders.

A huge portion of that game was the Raiders controlling the line on offense and being able to milk clock. Marcus Davenport being out proved fatal in that regard, but he's returned to practice. That is a vital piece of the puzzle versus a QB who can scramble and evade as good as anybody in Aaron Rodgers.

Even if Michael Thomas misses another game this week, the Saints having that extra time to prepare without him is pivotal. I don't see the Saints dropping back to back primetime games here. The Packers came back last week from a 3-14 deficit but if they fall behind here they won't have that luxury. If the Saints start out hot -- they won't look back. Another situation where the public is pouring it on the hot team and they will get punished for it. Saints on a slight -3 line at home is a no brainer.



NFL: Buffalo Bills ML @ 1.813/-123 (3 Units)
-I will gladly take the home team here in this game. I'd be far more hesitant to do so, but the Rams travel has been less than ideal especially with travel conditions being abnormal given the pandemic. Back to back weeks of being on the east coast is less than ideal and practice conditions aren't nearly the same. I love the Bills this year and this is a huge swing game for them. People were quick to discredit Josh Allen but he spent the entire season last year without a receiver over 6 feet tall. Now with the addition of Stefon Diggs he leads the NFL in passing yards having a superstar #1 target with some height to him. Now that we've seen two weeks, the Rams beat an overrated Cowboys team as well as an Eagles team that is very evidently pathetic and now people want to buy high on them talking about them looking like the Rams we saw in the Super Bowl. Public is pouring it on the Rams and in a huge statement game I'll take the home team here.

[GetTheseDimes]

Arvind Shiva (Indian Cowboy)

6-Unit Play. #462. Take New England Patriots -5 over Vegas Raiders (Sunday @ 1pm est)


Vegas has played a very young Carolina team and gave up 30+ points and won and played a Saints team who basically has a 43 year old QB who can't throw the ball 200 yards in a game. They face a Patriots team off a loss, who was 1 yard away from beating the best team in the league arguably and they face them at home, again, after a loss with a banged up Waller and Jacobs for the Raiders. This is a great opportunity for the Pats to win, to avoid going down 1-2 on the year and I think the Raiders are due for a big let down and it's here.

[GetTheseDimes]

We found Doug... Upstone
7 Unit Play. Take #462 New England -5 over Las Vegas (1:00 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 27)
Line Available at Westgate and Circa
This top pick starts as situational play. Las Vegas played last Monday, they had a surprisingly terrific game in their home opener in their new stadium and pulled the upset. Next is a cross-country trip, for an early game with less rest. New England has played well and Cam Newton has exceeded all early expectations. You might have seen Bill Belichick looked even grumpier in his press conferences this week, losing on the final play at Seattle. Belichick teams are 34-15 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in last game, with the point differential +9.7 PPG. The Raiders are allowing 4.9 YPC and over 400 YPG on defense (don't forget they played Carolina in Week 1) and will get a unique game plan from the Pats to exploit their weaknesses. With LVR 5-23 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog, the Patriots roll!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV wolf

chargers 1H u21.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

UNDER 43
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:08 PM
It's hard to see the Broncos scoring a bunch of points in this game with Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay all on the sidelines. The Bucs defense has played pretty well this year despite the Saints scoring 34 points in Week 1, and they've shown last year's elite performance against the run wasn't a fluke. It's possible Tom Brady ruins this Under pick on his own, but I don't see the Bucs running up the score at altitude against a Broncos team that will be looking to get to the next week while focusing on getting healthier. Even though Jeff Driskel's performance last week gives me a little pause, this looks like great value on the Under.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840

N.Y. JETS +11.5
N.Y. JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:07 PM
The Jets look like the worst team in football, but what that means is that the market is willing to give bettors a discount that you won't find with any other team. This line was just Colts -7 on the lookahead number, and I don't think Indy's performance against a bad Minnesota team is enough to move a line 4.5 points. The Jets have injury issues at receiver but weren't really exploding with talent at the position in the first place. But this is less a play on the Jets, who have a profitable 0-2 ATS trend in their corner, and more a fade on the Colts, who I believe haven't proven they should be the biggest favorites of the season three weeks in.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
25-13-1 IN LAST 39 IND ATS PICKS | +1039

18-13-2 IN LAST 33 NYJ ATS PICKS | +382

PHILADELPHIA -4.5
CINCINNATI @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:06 PM
I'm not buying that the Eagles are bad, and I think they just got embarrassed defensively by a Sean McVay gameplan that took their lunch. But do note that one week after allowing eight sacks against Washington, this Philadelphia O-line held Aaron Donald and Co. sackless on the day despite having to pass a lot in an comeback bid. The Cincinnati defense should be a much easier matchup for this Eagles offense, and I expect a big day from Miles Sanders, who is off the injury report completely, after what we saw the Browns backs do to the Bengals. Plus we get to play a profitable 0-2 ATS trend with Philly. Lay the points.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
16-10 IN LAST 26 CIN ATS PICKS | +499

NEW ENGLAND -5
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:05 PM
I love the value we're getting here on a Patriots team coming off a loss against a Raiders team that just earned an upset win. Over the last five years, the Raiders are on an NFL-worst 11-19 ATS stretch after a win since the start of 2016, while the Patriots are 9-4 ATS after a loss during that same stretch. Derek Carr also struggles on the road in short rest games, where's he's 1-4 ATS. He figures to regress against this defense in a huge letdown spot for Las Vegas. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -6.5, and that seems closer to what it should be.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
8-6 IN LAST 14 LV ATS PICKS | +129

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

Survivor Pick

Now comes Week Three, and there is no need to wrack your noggin. If the Indianapolis Colts remain in your arsenal of unpicked teams, they are a no-brainer.

As I type these words, Indy is a double-digit favorite over the sad-sack New York Jets, while no other spread is greater than seven.

Why not consider an alternative to the Horseshoes? Let me count the ways — 10, to be exact.

1. The Colts are back home, fresh off a dominant 17-point thrashing of Minnesota.

2. Indy newcomer and ageless QB Philip Rivers owns the third highest pass percentage (77.5) among league starters.

3. Veteran RB Marlon Mack suffers an injury in the opener, leaving the role to rookie Jonathan Taylor, who made a splash with 101 rushing yards.

4. TE Mo Alie-Cox stepped in for ailing Pro Bowler Jack Doyle and caught five balls for 111 yards. Not bad for a player who did not touch a football competitively in college.

5. The Vikes managed 175 measly yards, which would constitute a decent half for most teams.

6. The home-field edge could be heightened with 7,500 fans admitted, three times the limit for the Vikings game.

7. Then there are the Jets, with a pair of double-figure defeats, more recently by 18 against the 49ers, who barely had enough healthy players to deploy.

8. New York has scrounged out three touchdowns, two of them during mop-up time late in decided games.

9. Both games have been all but decided by halftime. The Jets have been outscored 42-6 in first halfs.

10. Coach Adam Tase couldn't resist some colorful mild profanities post-game Sunday, saying, "I'm (bleeped) right now. That (bleep) is no fun, going out there and getting your (bleep) beat."

I bleeping hear ya, Coach.

A half-dozen other teams are favored by six to seven points: Cleveland (over Washington), New England (Las Vegas), the Los Angeles Chargers (Carolina), Philadelphia (Cincinnati), Arizona (Detroit) and Tampa Bay (Denver.)

Tread carefully. All come with flaws. In fact, half of them are stepping away from losses.

After many survivor pools were partly drained in a Week One replete with upsets, form was restored last week.

Seven teams drew considerable interest, according to the website RunYourPool.com, and all skated by. The order of popularity: 49ers, Titans, Packers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Chiefs and Steelers.

Pittsburgh, which was my choice, cut it too close, winning by five points after fending off a potential game-winning march by Denver. Color me grateful for no longer having to sweat out another game by the unexpectedly shaky Steelers.

Week 3 Survivor pick: Colts over Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

PITTSBURGH -210
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
7:50 AM
Houston may have to wait another week for the team's first victory. The Texans rank second to last in the NFL against the run, allowing almost 200 yards per game. The Steelers rank first, allowing just over 66 yards per game. Pittsburgh is tied for second in total defense. Houston is really missing DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson has been turning the ball over at critical times. Only two teams in the AFC are averaging fewer points than the Texans, and facing this Steelers defense isn't going to be easy. Look for Pittsburgh to grind out another win at home.

8-5 LAST 13 NFL SIDES | +215

L.A. CHARGERS -6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
6:54 AM
The Chargers had to be impressed with the Week 2 performance of rookie Justin Herbert. The Panthers were already struggling because of their defense. But now Carolina will be offensively challenged without their best player. Christian McCaffrey is tied for the NFL lead with four rushing TDs. His absence is really going to affect the team on both sides of the ball. The Chargers' defense is licking their chops, and the offense should feel the same way. Teddy Bridgewater turned the ball over three times last week. Look for Herbert to play with a ton of confidence after nearly upsetting the Chiefs last week.

8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360

ARIZONA -5.5
DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
6:03 AM
The Cardinals are off to a fantastic 2-0 start and they are a bad matchup for the Lions. Detroit has been horrible on the road the last few years and the defense has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Lions are getting gashed on the ground, allowing over 200 yards per game. Kyler Murray is putting up rushing numbers reminiscent of Michael Vick. DeAndre Hopkins is leading the NFL with 22 catches and should feast on the Detroit defense. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings in Arizona, 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents. The home team is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 overall meetings.

8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ATS PICKS | +191

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

OVER 47
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:35 PM
Buffalo has been fortunate to play the Jets and Dolphins in their first two games (1-1 ATS) while the Rams won and covered against both the Cowboys and Eagles. Let’s just say the Rams' rating is seven and eight points better than what the Bills have faced. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has thrived so far, and it's not entirely based on the defenses he's faced. The Rams running game and a trimer Jared Goff have made their balanced offense tough to stop. Over is the play here.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95

DALLAS +5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:41 PM
The Seahawks made Cam Newton look like it was 2015 again. He was great, but all his receivers were open often. Dallas has much quicker wideouts, and Dak Prescott has done a great job finding them. The Cowboys will score often, and I believe the Seahawks will be chasing for most of the game. Dallas' problems are taking care of the ball and horrible calls by head coach Mike McCarthy. If he just called a vanilla plan on fourth downs they would be 2-0. Hopefully, it’s a lesson learned. Cowboys to cover.

OVER 56
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:34 PM
The Cowboys have averaged a 29.5-28.5 score through two games, allowing 802 yards. The Seahawks' average score is 36.5-27.5 with the NFL's worst defense allowing 970 total yards through two wins and two covers. The way the total points have been soaring through two weeks with no crowds and bad tackling, the offenses are loose like in a practice game. The total is still low, I’m on the Over.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95
10-3 IN LAST 13 DAL O/U PICKS | +675

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

NEW ENGLAND -5
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:39 PM
The Raiders were impressive against the Saints, but this is a bad spot, traveling cross-country on a short week to face a Bill Belichick-coached team coming off a loss. Lay it as Cam Newton continues his strong play.

7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
4-2 IN LAST 6 NE ATS PICKS | +182


N.Y. GIANTS +4
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:20 AM
The 49ers just want to get home without losing any more players to injury. Their pass rush has been decimated, which should allow Daniel Jones to thrive. Look for Dion Lewis to be effective catching passes out of the backfield. For the Giants, this is a golden chance to get Joe Judge his first head-coaching win. Grab the points but don't be surprised by an outright win.

7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 SF ATS PICKS | +828

10-3 IN LAST 13 NYG ATS PICKS | +689

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowherd

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Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
New England Patriots (-5.5)
Cincinnati Bengals (+5)
Houston Texans (+4.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

OVER 53
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
12:09 PM
This total has jumped up from when it first opened at 51 and expect it to be as high as 54 by game time. The Packers have the number one offense in the NFL, scoring 42 and 43 points in their first two games. Aaron Rodgers is on fire, with six TDs and 0 INTs. The Green Bay defense, however, has been suspect. After the Saints struggled on Monday night, we can expect them to perform better offensively. Drew Brees is clearly missing Michael Thomas but still has plenty of weapons. I wouldn't be surprised if the Packers score 40-plus points again. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

8-6 IN LAST 14 NFL PICKS | +105

GREEN BAY +3
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
11:52 AM
The Packers can win this game outright but will grab the points. Aaron Rodgers is off to a hot start and the offense is rolling right now. Rodgers has tossed six TDs with 0 INTs and Green Bay has scored 42 and 43 points. Aaron Jones has been doing the dirty work out of the backfield and rushed for a career-high 168 yards last week. Drew Brees is struggling and is clearly missing his best weapon in WR Michael Thomas. The Saints are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a home favorite.

8-4 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +360
4-0 IN LAST 4 GB ATS PICKS | +400

4-3 IN LAST 7 NO ATS PICKS | +69