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Jen Ryan
A fantasy football guru who also is a frequent guest on Football Diehards' show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Ryan has been a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Best Football Series award and goes in-depth every week on SportsLine on using Vegas lines to make Fantasy decisions in both season long leagues and daily contests.
NFL Props
Sportsline claims she has gone 7-2 through two weeks and is up $535.
While I am not suggesting you gamble any of your money on these props, here are a few that are on my radar this weekend:
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Drew Sample Over 3.5 total receptions (-105)
Seven receptions on nine targets. That is the volume Sample saw last week with C.J. Uzomah suffering a devastating injury. Sample had one target and a 35 percent snap share the previous week. In Week 2, that snap share shot up to 59 percent. That is going to increase this week, and he is going to get a lot of run.
The Eagles are a bottom-five team against tight ends, mainly with Tyler Higbee absolutely smashing them last week for three scores on five receptions for 54 yards. We are not comparing Sample to Higbee here as anything beyond two guys who play the same position and had/have a matchup against a team that has allowed eight receptions to the position on nine targets.
Sample saw those targets alone last week, on far fewer routes run. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow may be spreading the ball around, but he is throwing it a lot and he clearly had a favorite target last week. All things considered, I have a hard time imagining that this prop does not hit.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Derek Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Even money and no juice? Sign me up.
The dread of traveling to Foxboro does not have the same impending doom that it once did. No Tom Brady and no fans are certainly game changers.
Every projection I trust has Carr pegged for a single touchdown. We just need him to get one more. This can certainly go either way, with him coming off a three-touchdown game after a single touchdown in the season opener.
This is, also, Josh Jacobs' offense, and Carr is just playing in it.
The Patriots have allowed five passing touchdowns through two games, so if we want to get crazy with our math here that is an average of 2.5 touchdowns a game. New England cornerback Stephon Gilmore alone gives me hesitation on this prop, but, with the Raiders as -5.5 underdogs with a 21.0 implied total, one rushing touchdown to Jacobs and two passing for Carr is not out of the question.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Deshaun Watson Under 36.5 passing attempts (-105)
I hate Unders, and it is really enticing to go the other way on this line and take the over at +100. But my love for Overs still has me on Watson not hitting this mark.
In two games the Texans found themselves in negative game scripts playing from behind. Still, Watson has yet to make more than 36 passing attempts, with 32 in Week 1 and 36 last week. The line is tight, but it is also Watson's ceiling.
The winless Texans find themselves as road underdogs (+4) against one of the toughest defenses in football in the Steelers. Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson have been limited in practice all week. Will Fuller, who has struggled with health his entire career despite his massive upside, was in and out of the game last week.
It is hard to assume that Watson's pass-catchers are 100 percent healthy. I expect more of a rushing effort with David Johnson and with Watson having to use his legs to escape pressure.
Again, the line is tight, but I do not foreshadow Watson having more attempts than any game thus far against the Steelers in Heinz Field.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Younghoe Koo Over 7.5 total kicking points (+105)
A kicker prop. Now we are getting cute. Let's be honest, it would be incredibly boring not to have interesting props and just bet highly probable outcomes. That is not what we are here for.
Some numbers to consider: Koo's field goal line is 1.5 with the Over at -115 and the Under at -105, and Matt Ryan's passing touchdown line is 1.5 with the Over at -170 and the Under at +145.
So this 7.5 line is right around there. Two field goals and one touchdown gives Koo seven points. Can Koo not boot the ball three times through the uprights and cover this prop on his own? Do we really think Matt Ryan is incapable of throwing for two touchdowns at home in the dome, even with Julio Jones as a game-time decision?
I sure do not, and I will be considering the Over on Ryan's passing touchdowns in addition to Koo's total kicking points.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton Over 4.5 total receptions (-130)
Every once in a while, you have to take a stroll down Narrative Street.
Anyone who watches football has taken notice of Hilton's lackluster start, and perhaps the most important person to notice is his grandmother. According to the younger Hilton, Granny let T.Y. know "she didn't recognize the grandson she was watching on TV the first two weeks of the season."
Hilton says this is just what he needed to hear, and I am here for Granny motivation.
Jokes aside, pep talks can mean something, and why not a pep talk from your grandmother to get you over the hump? Hilton has a new quarterback who was supposed to make a Keenan Allen out of him in terms of targets and receptions. Hilton has seen 14 targets in two weeks and converted half of them. He is the WR55 in PPR scoring. There's nowhere to go but up.
Hilton needs a confidence boost, and what better team to flex on than the New York Jets? Game script could hurt this prop if the Colts get a commanding lead; they are -11.5 favorites, but expect Hilton to be involved early and often. He does not want to disappoint this woman (his grandmother, not me) for a third straight week.
A fantasy football guru who also is a frequent guest on Football Diehards' show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Ryan has been a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Best Football Series award and goes in-depth every week on SportsLine on using Vegas lines to make Fantasy decisions in both season long leagues and daily contests.
NFL Props
Sportsline claims she has gone 7-2 through two weeks and is up $535.
While I am not suggesting you gamble any of your money on these props, here are a few that are on my radar this weekend:
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
Drew Sample Over 3.5 total receptions (-105)
Seven receptions on nine targets. That is the volume Sample saw last week with C.J. Uzomah suffering a devastating injury. Sample had one target and a 35 percent snap share the previous week. In Week 2, that snap share shot up to 59 percent. That is going to increase this week, and he is going to get a lot of run.
The Eagles are a bottom-five team against tight ends, mainly with Tyler Higbee absolutely smashing them last week for three scores on five receptions for 54 yards. We are not comparing Sample to Higbee here as anything beyond two guys who play the same position and had/have a matchup against a team that has allowed eight receptions to the position on nine targets.
Sample saw those targets alone last week, on far fewer routes run. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow may be spreading the ball around, but he is throwing it a lot and he clearly had a favorite target last week. All things considered, I have a hard time imagining that this prop does not hit.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Derek Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Even money and no juice? Sign me up.
The dread of traveling to Foxboro does not have the same impending doom that it once did. No Tom Brady and no fans are certainly game changers.
Every projection I trust has Carr pegged for a single touchdown. We just need him to get one more. This can certainly go either way, with him coming off a three-touchdown game after a single touchdown in the season opener.
This is, also, Josh Jacobs' offense, and Carr is just playing in it.
The Patriots have allowed five passing touchdowns through two games, so if we want to get crazy with our math here that is an average of 2.5 touchdowns a game. New England cornerback Stephon Gilmore alone gives me hesitation on this prop, but, with the Raiders as -5.5 underdogs with a 21.0 implied total, one rushing touchdown to Jacobs and two passing for Carr is not out of the question.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers
Deshaun Watson Under 36.5 passing attempts (-105)
I hate Unders, and it is really enticing to go the other way on this line and take the over at +100. But my love for Overs still has me on Watson not hitting this mark.
In two games the Texans found themselves in negative game scripts playing from behind. Still, Watson has yet to make more than 36 passing attempts, with 32 in Week 1 and 36 last week. The line is tight, but it is also Watson's ceiling.
The winless Texans find themselves as road underdogs (+4) against one of the toughest defenses in football in the Steelers. Brandin Cooks and Duke Johnson have been limited in practice all week. Will Fuller, who has struggled with health his entire career despite his massive upside, was in and out of the game last week.
It is hard to assume that Watson's pass-catchers are 100 percent healthy. I expect more of a rushing effort with David Johnson and with Watson having to use his legs to escape pressure.
Again, the line is tight, but I do not foreshadow Watson having more attempts than any game thus far against the Steelers in Heinz Field.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Younghoe Koo Over 7.5 total kicking points (+105)
A kicker prop. Now we are getting cute. Let's be honest, it would be incredibly boring not to have interesting props and just bet highly probable outcomes. That is not what we are here for.
Some numbers to consider: Koo's field goal line is 1.5 with the Over at -115 and the Under at -105, and Matt Ryan's passing touchdown line is 1.5 with the Over at -170 and the Under at +145.
So this 7.5 line is right around there. Two field goals and one touchdown gives Koo seven points. Can Koo not boot the ball three times through the uprights and cover this prop on his own? Do we really think Matt Ryan is incapable of throwing for two touchdowns at home in the dome, even with Julio Jones as a game-time decision?
I sure do not, and I will be considering the Over on Ryan's passing touchdowns in addition to Koo's total kicking points.
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton Over 4.5 total receptions (-130)
Every once in a while, you have to take a stroll down Narrative Street.
Anyone who watches football has taken notice of Hilton's lackluster start, and perhaps the most important person to notice is his grandmother. According to the younger Hilton, Granny let T.Y. know "she didn't recognize the grandson she was watching on TV the first two weeks of the season."
Hilton says this is just what he needed to hear, and I am here for Granny motivation.
Jokes aside, pep talks can mean something, and why not a pep talk from your grandmother to get you over the hump? Hilton has a new quarterback who was supposed to make a Keenan Allen out of him in terms of targets and receptions. Hilton has seen 14 targets in two weeks and converted half of them. He is the WR55 in PPR scoring. There's nowhere to go but up.
Hilton needs a confidence boost, and what better team to flex on than the New York Jets? Game script could hurt this prop if the Colts get a commanding lead; they are -11.5 favorites, but expect Hilton to be involved early and often. He does not want to disappoint this woman (his grandmother, not me) for a third straight week.
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