Service Plays Sunday 9/27/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 09/27/20

4★ Chicago/Atlanta OVER 47 (NFL)

3★ Arizona -5.5 over Detroit (NFL)

3★ Tampa Bay/Denver UNDER 43 (NFL)

[rocky57]

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
NFL Best Bet - Seattle Seahawks -5

[rocky57]

Joe Williams (VegasInsider NFL Totals Club)
Eagles/Bengals Over 47.5
Panthers/Chargers Under 44
Cowboys/Seahawks Over 56.5
Lions/Cardinals Over 56
Jets/Colts Under 44

[rocky57]

Micah Roberts (VegasInsider Nascar Handicaper)
Sunday 9/27 - South Point 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: NBCSN - Time 7:00pm est.

Top 5 Finish Prediction
1) #11 Denny Hamlin 6/1
2) #2 Brad Keselowski 8/1
3) #4 Kevin Harvick 7/2
4) #18 Kyle Busch 8/1
5) #22 Joey Logano 8/1

[rocky57]

Toby Maxtone-Smith (VegasInsider Soccer Handicaper)
Sunday 9/27 - England Premier League
West Ham United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
TV: Peacock Time: 2:00pm
BEST BET - Wolverhampton Wanderers +100

[rocky57]

Vince Akins (VegasInsider Gridiron Angle Plays)
Record 9-4 after the first 2 NFL Weeks
NFL
Cincinnati Bengals +4.5
Denver Broncos +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
New York Jets +12.5
Dallas Cowboys/Seattle Seahawks Over 56.5
Las Vegas Raiders/New England Patriots Under 47.5
Green Bay Packers/New Orleans Saints Over 53

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 8:20PM
488 NOS -3.0(-110) Southpoint vs 487 GBP double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FEZZIK | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/27/20 - 1:00 PM
468 NYG 3.5 (-110) William Hill vs 467 SFX

triple-dime bet

Analysis:

FEZ BEST BET:

Sf/NYG+3.5 Like NYG +3.5

SF: Crippled team: Market has not reacted enough

Lookahead line was NYG +6.5

Downgrade at QB, Jimmy G to Nick Mullens 4 points

DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT

RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT

Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle OUT

Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT

AND SF has to play on the same stadium TURF that they played last week

49ers have been vocal saying Turf is “sticky” and contributed to injuries………..I think this will be big distraction.



Like NYG +3.5



WEEK 2 NOTES

New Coaches went 1-4 ATS

NOW: 2-8 ATS

Dal- McCarthy Clev- Stefanski

Car- Rhule Wash- Rivera

NYG Judge: ONLY ATS WINNER



OVERS go 12-4

Defenses DO look compromised/struggling to tackle:



Teams embracing Offensive Aggression More:

GB goes for it 4th and 4 from Det 45 1st drive

Az, Buf, with leads don’t run out clocks

Both winging the ball deep……


NFL:

Raiders /NE -6

LIKE PATS:

Raiders: Really Bad Spot


Huge 1st game MNF win at Allegiant Stadium.

Now have to wheel back flying across country, short week,

with an early start time



2nd East Coast Trip for Team in 3 weeks……

Went to Carolina Week 1

Raiders OLINE issues:

G Incognito, T Sam Young, T Trent Brown



Cam: Rated higher than Brady Now

Cam my No 16 QB, Brady 20

Given this we get a far superior NE team in a good spot…


Rams/BILLS -2.5

LIKE BILLS

Rams: Worst Travel Spot of any Team all year:

Rams had planned to stay East, but with Covid reconsidered

Flew to Philly last week

Flew back to LA

Now fly to Buffalo

Bills: Josh Allen, has been masterful YTD
No.4 QB in QBR………was 24 the last two years before

Is No 16 in accuracy, after being bottom 5 last 2 years

And has 3 legit WRS

Diggs/Brown/Beasley all averaging over 60/game

Hou PIT-4

Lean Pit

Hou: Needs there top 2 WRs to be heathy:

Game 1: Cooks ineffective vs. KC only 2 catches

Game 2: Fuller not right, often out of game, was not targeted

Just a lean:

Hou at 0-2 desperate vs. a 2-0 Pit team



Sf/NYG+4 Like NYG

PASS: JIMMY G STATUS? Healthy Jimmy G worth 3.5 points vs. Mullens

SF: Crippled team:

DLINE Injuries: Bosa , Soloman Thoman OUT for year Dee Ford OUT

RB Injuries: Mostert, Coleman OUT

Receiver Injuries: Samuel OUT, Kittle?

Also: C Richburg is out, CB Richard Sherman OUT

Note: SF staying East…..they were VERY successful last year doing this going 2-0 ATS (@Cin, @Balt) last year

Ten -2.5/Min PASS

Min was dominated on line of scrimmage last week

D is clearly missing all the departures

And O was totally out of sync without their Center Elflein

But Titans actually got outplayed by Jax

Titans only won due to +2 t/o

JAx won yardage 480-354

Jax 6.5 ypplay, Ten 6.0

And Henry looks a step slow this year:

2020: 3.6 y/rush, 5.1 LY, 4.9 2018

Wash/Clev

LIKE CLEV

Wash: Overrated: Based on that 2nd half vs. Philly OLine missing 4 players

Haskins: My worst rated NFL QBR 28, worst in NFL

Worst rated accuracy in NFL: -10.6 comp percentage

He is 56 % should be 67%

Clev: Good spot, 10 days to prep for game

Clev: Underrated based on noncover vs. Cin

Clev dominated the stats, but Cin went 5/5 on 4th downs

YPPLAY: Cin 4.0, CLEV 7.5

How did Cin score 30 at only 4.0 y/play?
5/5 on 4th down conversions…….

Enabled them to get 2 4th quarter TDs

Mayfield: Bad interception up 12 in the 4Q……..

Clev was running right through Cin…..

35 Rushes/215 yards, 6.1 yards/rush



Chic/ATL -3 tiny Lean Chicago

Atl D: Clearly has taken a huge step back

Giving up 6.9/playÂ, worst in NFL

Dallas Oline was down 3 guys last week, Still torched them

Atl: What is their mind set?
99.9% to win game vs. Dallas

How will team respond?
Chicago: Does not Trust Trusbisky

Bears lead 17-0 vs. Giants, then were ultra conservative

Jets/COLTS pass

Jets: Worst team in NFL.

Jets got crushed DESPITE playing THE team in the NFL most decimated by injuries, the 49ers.

Jets have Bad WRs, and NONE are healthy:

Hogan (Ribs), Perriman(Ankle), Crowder (Hamstring) all ?

Jets have the worst No1 RB in the NFL

Gore: 27/87, 3.2 Avg

Colts: Jonathon Taylor answered the questions last week:

RB Marlon Mack out for year

Taylor 26/101 and looked solid last week

Taylor: Good bet for Rookie of Year 7-1

Car/Chargers-6.5

Pass

Car: Was impressive in 14 point loss to Tbay

Actually won yards by 100

Was -2 in t/o

Chargers: outplayed KC

Chargers won the stats

Herbert played very well vs. KC

Det/Az LIKE: Det 1st half, Az 2nd half

DERIVATIVE BETS OF WEEK

Det: A team to fade in the 2nd half?

2020: 1st half +2/gm, 2nd half -15

2019: 1st half +-.5/gm, 2nd half -4.6

2018: 1st half +.2/gm, 2nd half -2.5

Note: Az LY, was -3.1 1h, -1.9 2h

2019 Game:

Det lead 17-3 at half, ended 27-27

And Az is reinventing end game strategy:

Up 12, 6 min to play, they threw the ball 4 of 5 times

I have never seen an NFL team do that up more than 1 score …

Tb/DEN +6 Lean DENVER

Brady: Struggling

2 bad interceptions vs. N Orleans (and N Orleans D did not look good vs. Raiders)

Brady: No 30 in NFL in QBR YTD

Tbay: Lucky cover vs. Carolina

Won 31-17

Tb +2 in T/os

Carolina won yards by just under 100 yards

TB got cover with a 46 yard TD run with under 2 min to play


Dal/SEA-5 LIKE DALLAS

Dal: UNDERRATED?

Was in a close gm vs. Atl despite

-3 T/os

2 failed Fake Punts

So essentially minus 5 in turnovers……..

Given that even a close loss is impressive

Dallas loss to Rams looks more excusable

After Rams crushed Philly in Philly

Gb/N Orl -3 strong lean NORL

PASS:

Drew Brees playing below his normal level:

No 17 in QBR

Next gen Stats:

Brees: 3rd most inaccurate passer, -8.4 vs. expected (65% vs. 73% expected)

Brees: 2nd fewest air yards/completion (3.6)

HOWEVER: N Orl always starts slow, 2-12 ATS, 3-11 Su

So let’s not overreact

Rodgers: Motivated

Has played 2 great games, and is No1 in NFL in QBR!


Pick Made: Sep 25 2020 11:48AM PST

[Onehunglow]

Root

Perfect- Houston
Inner circle- Minnesota
Pinnacle- New Orleans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Demarco
20 dimes
Tampa Bay-6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andy Iskoe

Texans +4
Vikings +2.5
Browns -7
Cowboys +5
Broncos Under 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WG Ramirez

Bills -2.5
Giants +4
Colts -10.5
Cardinals -6
Saints Over 51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Sunday Night Spotless Smash Play!

Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

29-7 ATS NFL HIGH ROLLER TOP SHELF WAGER
Falcons

100% NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH
Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Eagles -5 Triple
Packers/Saints Under 53 Double
Hawks/Cowboys Under 29 First Half Double
Heat/Celtics Under 214.5 Triple
Diamondbacks +1.5 runs (-165) Double
Saints ML (-162) Double