Service Plays Saturday 10/3/20

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Kyle Marley

UFC

Marley has hit 21 of his last 25 UFC main-event picks, a stretch that included five consecutive upsets! At UFC 253 on Saturday, he accurately predicted a stoppage victory for middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (-170) against Paulo Costa (+150) in the main event.

Here are Marley's picks for UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana (odds from William Hill US).

Holly Holm (-125) vs. Irene Aldana (+105): Aldana by decision

This should be a 25-minute striking match. Holm will likely be trying to keep this fight on the outside and pick her spots, while Aldana will be the one pressing forward and pushing the pace. Holm has never been a volume striker. She has just been a better and more technical striker than most of her opponents. That might not be the case in this one. Aldana is a good striker with solid movement and it would be a bit surprising if Holm landed more volume. Aldana is a bit too hittable, so Holm can change rounds with a big shot or land the knockout. However, if this goes the distance Aldana should be the one getting her hand raised.

Yorgan de Castro (-260) vs. Carlos Felipe (+220): Felipe by TKO

These are big boys and one of them will likely get knocked out. Neither are great talents and it could just come down to who lands that big shot first. Castro is not the type of heavyweight I would want to lay close to 3-1 on against basically anybody in the division. Felipe can come out of the gates hot and I think he will be going for the kill first. He is the younger guy as well, and there isn't anything about de Castro's game that makes this a clear pick for him. I think Felipe is a live underdog who is capable of both a stoppage or a decision.

Germaine de Randamie (-115) vs. Julianna Pena (-105): de Randamie by decision

De Randamie should dominate the striking and possibly get a knockout, while Pena should dominate the grappling and possibly get a submission. De Randamie might be the best woman's striker in the UFC and Pena really has nothing for her in that regard. De Randamie can stuff takedowns and work back to her feet, so I think this will be on the feet longer than Pena would like. She might get put away if she gets worn out constantly going for takedowns.

Dusko Todrovic (-310) vs. Dequan Townsend (+255): Todorovic by decision

Todorovic is making his UFC debut and the UFC set him up with a winnable fight. Townsend has looked pretty bad so far in his 0-3 UFC stint and, with another loss, could be handed the pink slip. Todorovic is the better striker and this fight should be one that mainly stays standing. However, Todorovic looks to be a little too hittable and Townsend does have knockout power. Townsend is also the more experienced fighter and he has to fight like his job is on the line. It wouldn't shock me to see him get the knockout upset, but Todorovic is the pick.

Jordan Williams (-140) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+120): Imavov via TKO

This is one of my favorite fights on the card and it is my pick for Fight of the Night. Imavov looks like the more technical striker and the more dangerous grappler. Williams looks like the more powerful striker, with more volume and better wrestling. Imavov looks like the more talented prospect, so at these odds it is dog or pass for me.

Court McGee (-125) vs. Carlos Condit (+105): Condit by decision

This would have been a fun fight 10 years ago. Now, these guys are nearing the end of their careers, with Condit being 0-5 and McGee being 1-4 in their last five fights.. We really have no idea what we are getting with these two now, but there is no way I would want to lay juice on either of them. I also think this fight should mainly stay on the feet and Condit is the better striker. McGee can mix in takedowns or win on volume, but Condit is the pick in a close, 15-minute striking battle.

Charles Jourdain (-440) vs. Josh Culibao (+360): Jourdain by TKO

Culibao got dominated in his UFC debut and now he is almost a 4-1 underdog in another spot where he could get dominated again. Jourdain is a solid striker and is dangerous on the feet. This should be the fight that he wants, and he shouldn't have to worry about takedowns. I would expect Culibao to look better than he did in his last fight, but this is a tough task here and he probably gets finished along the way.

Kyler Phillips (-440) vs. Cameron Else (+360): Phillips via TKO

Phillips looked amazing in his UFC debut and it shows with this betting line. This is going to be Else's UFC debut and it is by far his toughest test to date. Else looks aggressive and he has knockout power and decent grappling. Phillips just looks like he is better, faster and more dangerous everywhere. Else is going to need a big knockout shot or a quick choke to pull off this win and that is too tough of a task.

Loma Lookboonmee (-135) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+115): Lookboonmee by decision

This should be a fairly high-level striking match. Frey is the more experienced fighter with a small height and reach advantage, but Lookboonmee is 11 years younger and might be a decent prospect. Lookboonmee should be the one with more output on the feet and she is also more likely to look for takedowns. We probably see the full 15 minutes here and my pick is for Lookboonmee to win at least two of those three rounds.

Casey Kenney (-290) vs. Heili Alateng (+245): Kenney by decision

Kenney should be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. He is the better striker and he should be the one landing more volume. Alateng is going to look for takedowns a lot, but Kenney should be the better wrestler and grappler as well. It's hard to see Alateng having much success there and Kenney would likely get back to his feet instead of Alateng submitting him. This is a favorite-or-pass fight for me and Kenney is a solid parlay piece.

Luigi Vendramini (-115) vs. Jessin Ayari (-105): Vendramini by decision

Both guys are making their returns after a two-year layoff and coming off losses, so it is hard to know what we will get from them. Vendramini looks like the more dangerous striker and grappler, but Ayari is the better point fighter. If this fight ends inside the distance, Vendramini is more likely to get his hand raised. If this fight goes to the judges, then Ayari is probably more likely to win. I was more impressed with what I saw from Vendramini years ago and he is the younger fighter by four years, so he is more likely to have improved and he is the pick.

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'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 5 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football is underway in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Here is your guide to Week 5 of the season with the two college football analysts.
Records
Stanford Steve (1-2 last week, 5-5 overall)
The Bear (1-1, 4-7)
The plays


No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17, 51.5)

Stanford Steve: We're gonna take Bama until they cover. As a lot of teams the Tide will play, I think the Aggies will have a tough time guarding Steve Sarkisian's wide receivers and skill guys. We'll give the points.
Pick: Alabama -17 (Alabama 41, Texas A&M 20)

No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21.5, 54) at Kansas Jayhawks

Stanford Steve: All I needed to see this week was a report that Spencer Sanders practiced in Stillwater. We'll stay laying the points vs. the Jayhawks. I'll take the Pokes
Pick: Oklahoma State -21.5 (Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 14)

No. 25 Memphis Tigers (-3, 74.5) at SMU Mustangs

Stanford Steve: In a matchup of two QBs that I don't think get enough attention -- the Mustangs' Shane Buechele (3,900-plus yards passing last year) and the Tigers' Brady White (7,500 career yards passing) -- I think the points will be plentiful. But I do like the spot for the Mustangs here. They went to Memphis and played a great game last year as College GameDay made their first trip to Beale Street. I love the skill talent on SMU more here. I'll take the points.
Pick: SMU +3 (SMU 48, Memphis 42)

Baylor Bears (-3, 53.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers

The Bear: The Mountaineers came away from Stillwater with a loss, but they shouldn't feel too discouraged. If anything, they should feel frustrated, angry and motivated. They gave up one TD on a 66-yard run. The other scores came on a scoop-and-score and a late TD with about a minute to go. WVU outgained Oklahoma State but hurt itself with that costly turnover, 12 penalties and by going a combined 6-for-18 on third and fourth down. Two red zone trips resulted in 26- and 30-yard field goals.
Meanwhile, Baylor predictably won big over Kansas, but a dive inside the box score reveals two return TDs, a safety and a garbage time TD with 4:00 to play. The Bears gained just 352 yards and could have been holding stuff back vs. an overmatched opponent and bit a little off given the chaotic start to the season, but I was surprised to see the Bears favored on the road. A home team getting points -- what's better than that?
Pick: West Virginia +3
The Bear's 10-point, 3-team teaser of the week

North Carolina -4
Pitt -4
Auburn-Georgia under 54.5
The Bear's money line parlay of the week

Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current odds, $100 returns $94.21.
Cincinnati -1800
Florida -1000
North Carolina -500
Pitt -600
Clemson -4500
UCF -1600
Alabama -1000
Bear Bytes

Lincoln Riley's Sooners might have reason to be wary of Iowa State. Mark Brown/Getty Images
Trap game for Mississippi State?
• In the past 10 years, seven SEC teams have won a game outright as a 14-point dog, as Mississippi State did last week at LSU. Those previous seven teams are 1-6 both SU and ATS the following week. Mississippi State is an 18-point favorite at home against Arkansas.
No home cooking for West Virginia
• The Mountaineers have covered only once in their past eight games as a home underdog. That was a 44-27 win over NC State last year as a 7-point 'dog. They are 3-point underdogs this week at home against Baylor.
Iowa State has it covered vs. Oklahoma
• Under Matt Campbell, the Cyclones have covered all four games against Oklahoma, each as a double-digit underdog. On average, the Cyclones have been a 21-point 'dog and have one win and have covered by an average of 17.1 PPG in those four games. Saturday's game is the first time since 2002 that Iowa State is not a double-digit underdog vs. Oklahoma (-7). Iowa State vs. Oklahoma under Campbell:
2019: 14.5-point underdog, lost by 1
2018: 17.5-point underdog, lost by 10
2017: 30.5-point underdog, won by 7
2016: 20-point underdog, lost by 10
• Under Campbell, Iowa State is 20-8 ATS as an underdog with seven outright wins. That includes a 10-2 ATS mark as a home underdog with five straight covers. Iowa State's past five games as a home underdog:
2019 vs. Iowa: 1.5-point underdog, lost by 1
2018 vs. West Virginia: 4.5-point underdog, won by 16
2018 vs. Oklahoma: 17.5-point underdog, lost by 10
2017 vs. Oklahoma State: 8-point underdog, lost by 7
2017 vs. TCU: 7-point underdog, won by 7
• Oklahoma has failed to cover eight of its past nine and 10 of its past 12 games. Coincidentally, last year after OU lost as a 23.5-point favorite against Kansas State, the following week the Sooners survived 42-41 vs. Iowa State as a 14.5-point favorite.
Tight one between TCU and Texas?
• TCU has won and covered five of the past six vs Texas. The Longhorns are 4-10 ATS in their past 14 Big 12 games as a favorite and just 1-5 ATS in their past six as a double-digit favorite in conference play (they are a 12-point favorite Saturday). Four of those six games were decided by seven points or fewer.
• Texas' past six games as double-digit favorites vs. Big 12 opponent:
2020: -17.5 at Texas Tech, won by 7
2019: -21 vs. Kansas, won by 2
2019: -10.5 at West Virginia, won by 11
2018: -15 at Kansas, won by 7
2018: -14 vs. Baylor, won by 6
2017: -32 vs. Kansas, won by 15
Kansas State in a good spot
• Last year after beating Oklahoma as a 23.5-point favorite, the Wildcats beat Kansas 38-10 as a 4.5-point favorite. K-State is a 2.5-point favorite over Texas Tech this week after beating then-No. 3 OU last week 38-35.
Upset alert for Alabama?
• No. 2 Alabama is a 17-point favorite over No. 13 Texas A&M. There have been 31 home games where a top-15 matchup produced a spread greater than 16 points. Three teams have pulled upsets: Stanford in 2012 as a 20.5-point underdog to Oregon, Tennessee in 2001 as a 17.5-point underdog to Florida, and Auburn in 1994 as a 17-point 'dog to Florida. For reference, in 2012, No. 15 Texas A&M was a 13.5-point 'dog at No. 1 Alabama when Johnny Manziel & Co. pulled the upset.
No. 7 Auburn visits No. 4 Georgia
• This is the first time Georgia is a single-digit favorite at home since 2017 when the Bulldogs were -2.5 vs Mississippi State.
• Georgia is 9-3 ATS in its past 12 games vs. top-10 opponents. All four games against top-10 opponents last year went under the total.
• Underdogs have covered 13 of the past 18 regular-season meetings between top-7 teams with five outright wins.
North Carolina a rare big road favorite
• The Tar Heels are a 14-point road favorite at Boston College. The Tar Heels haven't been this big a road favorite in an ACC game since 1997 when they won 40-14 at Maryland as a 23.5-point favorite.
Edge to the underdog?
• Underdogs in the Virginia Tech-Duke have won five of the past seven meetings outright and have covered six of the past seven. Last year, Duke won 45-10 at Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point underdog, and in 2018, Virginia Tech won 31-14 at Duke as a 6.5-point underdog. Duke is favored by 10.5 on Saturday.
Academies struggle in favorite role
• Underdogs have covered 10 of the past 11 meetings between two service academies. Navy snapped a 10-game cover streak by the underdog with a 31-7 win over Army last year as an 11.5-point favorite. Navy is a 6.5-point favorite at Air Force.
NC State brutal of late ATS as a 'dog
• NC State is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog. Eight of those losses came by at least 14 points, and six came by at least 21 points. The Wolfpack are 14-point underdogs at No. 24 Pitt.

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Week 5 college football best bets: Big games in the SEC

Every Thursday during the college football season, Doug Kezirian (2-0 last week, 3-1 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 6-4), Preston Johnson (0-2, 1-5), Seth Walder (0-1, 3-2) and David M. Hale (1-2, 5-4) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday afternoon.


Virginia Cavaliers at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-28, 55)

Hale: Let's look at Clemson's first two games. In the opener, the Tigers left a ton of points on the field against Wake Forest, putting up 561 yards but just 37 points. In Week 2, they hung 49 on The Citadel in the first half, then didn't score again. The point is, we've yet to see the real explosiveness of this offense, but Virginia is decent enough to force Clemson to keep its foot on the gas. Last year's ACC championship game had 79 points scored, and while neither team is quite as loaded as it was in 2019, there's no reason to think there won't still be plenty of fireworks on offense.
Pick: Over 55

South Carolina Gamecocks at No. 3 Florida Gators (-18, 57.5)

Johnson: Florida's 51 points were impressive, but allowing 35 points and 613 yards to Ole Miss is worrisome. The Gators gave up 13.4 yards per pass attempt. South Carolina and coach Will Muschamp will give the Gators a better fight defensively in this matchup, and with my projection coming in at Gamecocks +16, I'm happy to back a South Carolina team that hung with Tennessee in a 31-27 loss despite a pick-six and a minus-two turnover differential.
Pick: South Carolina +18

No. 7 Auburn Tigers at No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs (-6.5, 44.5)

Johnson: This is more of a sell on Auburn for me than it is a buy on UGA (although I like that former USC quarterback JT Daniels was cleared to play for the Bulldogs this Saturday). The Tigers benefited from two Kentucky red zone turnovers that included a 100-yard pick-six, a Kentucky fumble near its own red zone to set Auburn up for a touchdown, and another failed fake punt near its own red zone yet again for an Auburn touchdown. My takeaway was that outside of those turnovers, Kentucky was the better team. Everyone remembers that Georgia was trailing in the middle of the third quarter to Arkansas as a four-touchdown favorite. I think this is a sneaky buy-low spot on the home favorite in an offense that showed it is going with more spread this year.
Pick: Georgia -6.5

Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-18, 69)

Johnson: I loved the Bulldogs as much as anybody last week against LSU, and even despite the outright victory, I can't get my projection for this matchup higher than two touchdowns. I'm not even talking letdown spot; while we might see one here, the numbers and data I use for both schools shows 18 is too many points. For Arkansas, Florida transfer QB Feleipe Franks will feel some relief going up against the Mississippi State defense after facing UGA in the opener. He wasn't spectacular, but the Razorbacks hung around for the majority of that contest, and we should see improvement enough to keep this within 18 points against much weaker competition.
Pick: Arkansas +18

No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-21.5, 54) at Kansas Jayhawks

Connelly: Oddsmakers tend to catch up to teams' true quality levels after a few weeks, but I don't think they're quite there yet with Kansas. They were three touchdowns off in Week 2 when the Jayhawks were favored by six against Coastal Carolina and lost by 15. They were 16 points off in Week 3 when Baylor was strangely favored by only 17 and won by 33 despite a slow start. In both instances, my SP+ rankings were far closer to the final result -- while still underselling Kansas' awfulness a bit.
After picking Baylor in last week's best bets, then, we're letting it ride until the Jayhawks prove the lines have caught up to them. SP+ says this should be more of a 26-point OSU win, and that doesn't take into account the fact that Cowboys starting quarterback Spencer Sanders might be healthy enough to play for the first time since early in OSU's first game. The Cowboys haven't looked amazing so far, but you don't have to look amazing to beat Kansas by a decent amount.
Pick: Oklahoma State -21

No. 20 LSU Tigers (-20.5, 48.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores

Hale: I have written some very dumb things in my career, but last week's explanation of my LSU pick might be the dumbest. "We'll look back at this line in two months and wonder why anyone thought this would be a remotely competitive game," I wrote. I should have to do a few hundred hours of community service to account for being that brutally wrong. Instead, I'll do what any good bettor does -- double down.
Vandy does not have Mike Leach calling plays or K.J. Costello throwing the ball. In fact, you'd have to add up the past five Vanderbilt games to get as many passing yards as Mississippi State had last Saturday. And while 20 is a big line, LSU has all the reasons in the world to run the score up in this one and shake off the last remnants of the championship hangover. And if I'm wrong, let us never speak of it again.
Pick: LSU -20

No. 25 Memphis Tigers (-3, 74.5) at SMU Mustangs (+3, 74.5)

Johnson: Memphis will not have played a game since its opener in early September when its faces off against SMU. The Tigers have had COVID-19 issues and were forced to cancel a few games that they would otherwise have played to this point. I would typically line the Mustangs 1.5-point underdogs, but the added advantage of having played more games and practicing under normal circumstances is a worthwhile bonus. SMU's offense has been hitting on all cylinders to the tune of 49 points per game. With an improved rushing attack (6.0 yards per carry) and Shane Buechele under center, I'm grabbing +3 against a Memphis team dealing with off-the-field variables under a first-year head coach.
Pick: SMU +3

Ole Miss Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (-6, 61.5)

Connelly: Last week's games left us with a couple of key questions about these two teams: 1. Is Ole Miss' defense really bad, or is Florida's offense just really good? 2. Is Kentucky's offense really bad, or is Auburn's defense just really good?
The answer is almost always "something in between," of course, but while SP+ mostly saw what it expected to from Ole Miss, it's probably worth noting that it dropped UK considerably (from 24th to 43rd) after the Auburn loss. The Wildcats were able to hang in third-and-manageable and move the chains at times, but they also went three-and-out on nearly half their possessions. Red zone turnovers made a big difference in the game, but SP+ seems to think UK was lucky to be close enough for those turnovers to matter.
We might soon find out that Auburn is just that good, but I'm a lot more uncertain about the Wildcats than I was a week ago; meanwhile, I'm all but certain that Ole Miss has one of the best offenses in the conference. SP+ sees this as basically a toss-up (Kentucky by 1.7), and I think I agree.
Pick: Ole Miss +6.5

Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 54) at Duke Blue Devils

Connelly: This one is a pure connect-the-dots pick. 1. SP+ reacted very strongly to Virginia Tech's performance against NC State last week, bumping the Hokies from 34th to 17th despite the fact that it's designed not to overreact to a team's first game. 2. Duke has already lost to ACC teams ranked 33rd and 58th by an average score of 32-13. 3. SP+ doesn't even know that Tech was without a ton of players last week, including its starting QB, and still projects a 33-13 win, nearly double the -10.5 line.
Even if Tech isn't quite as good as SP+ suddenly thinks, and even though -10.5 is not a great line for picking the favorite, that's a huge difference. And since SP+ is 61% against the spread this year so far, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt and ride this Hokie love.
Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-7, 54) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Hale: One of the safer ways to approach betting college football is to understand the difference between a bad team and a horrendous one. There's usually at least one point spread that doesn't suitably match this distinction, and this week, it's the game between a below-average Hilltoppers team and a train wreck at MTSU.
WKU's losses came in a semi-competitive game against Louisville and in a six-point defeat to the uber-talented Malik Willis and Liberty. MTSU, meanwhile, was boat-raced by both Army and Troy before losing by two to UTSA (the fourth-worst team in the country by FPI). Western Kentucky is middling. MTSU is awful. That adds up to more than seven points in this one.
Pick: Western Kentucky -7

Baylor Bears (-3, 53.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers

Johnson: The 47-14 final score in Baylor's win over Kansas last week was misleading. The Bears outgained the Jayhawks by only 24 yards, but they benefited from two kick-return touchdowns and a safety in the game. West Virginia, on the other hand, lost to Oklahoma State by 14 but was better offensively. A long fumble return for a touchdown swung the game to the Cowboys' side. We're getting a merging sell-high spot on Baylor and a buy-low spot on WVU. I have this projected exactly PK, so I'm thrilled with +3 on the home team that kept it close last season in coach Neal Brown's first year against a Baylor squad that won 11 games and made a trip to the Sugar Bowl.
Pick: West Virginia +3

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats (-2.5, 64)

Johnson: As great of a story as KSU's outright win over Oklahoma after trailing by 21 in the third quarter was, it wasn't something that my game grades put much stock in. The Wildcats gave up 28 first downs to the Sooners and gained just 10 themselves. Big plays and a plus-four turnover differential kept them hanging around. They deserve credit for stealing it, but not to the tune of being a 2.5-point favorite to Texas Tech. It wasn't too long ago that KSU lost as a 15-point favorite at home to an Arkansas State team that was missing nine starters. Give me the team that just dropped 56 on the Longhorns in regulation and took them to overtime despite quarterback Alan Bowman throwing three interceptions.
Pick: Texas Tech +2.5

Navy Midshipmen (-6.5, 46.5) at Air Force Falcons

Johnson: At first glance, this number is curiously high. When we piece together that Air Force had 40 players opt out of football this season after the Mountain West Conference canceled it, it starts to make more sense. They wanted to swap eligibility for when football returns next year. Now with the MWC potentially making an earlier return, the football situation for the Academy is a mess. It was already losing most of its starters from last year's team, and QB Donald Hammond III left the team in July. As bad as Navy looked for six quarters this season, the Midshipmen looked just as good for their last two against Tulane. I'm willing to lay the 6.5 points against what looks to be a C-squad for Air Force.
Pick: Navy -6.5

Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5, 64.5) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Johnson: Think back to geometry class for a minute. Remember the transitive property? If a = b and b = c, then a = c. So, if Arkansas State beat Kansas State and Kansas State beat No. 3 Oklahoma, then Arkansas State would ... stop! That's not how it works in college football, but we're getting some transitive-property market value here. This is another game that I project nearly PK, yet we are getting +3.5. It's worth mentioning the Red Wolves haven't actually played a game since the KSU upset. They've been dealing with COVID-19-related issues with players and coaches. CCU has graded impressively in its two wins to date, and freshman quarterback Grayson McCall (seven total touchdowns, 0 turnovers, 0 sacks and a 213.5 QBR) looks like the real deal.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FOOTBALL JESUS georgia-pts vs auburn

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WunderDog CFB Pick:

Game: Oklahoma State Cowboys (137) @ Kansas Jayhawks (138)
Time: Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern
Pick: Oklahoma State -21.5 (-105) at BetAnySports
Tools: Public Consensus | View Matchups | Bet this game at BetUS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Weir

Preakness

Overview
The Preakness lost some of its luster with Tiz the Law not returning following his Kentucky Derby loss. The good news is there is a solid field of 11 to cap an excellent day of racing in Baltimore.

Win contenders
5 Thousand Words (6-1) was scratched in the paddock prior to the Kentucky Derby after flipping. I preferred Thousand Words over his stablemate Authentic entering the Derby and will give him another chance here. He was arguably coming into the Derby at his best; his win in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar produced a Beyer Speed Figure of 104. That figure remains hard to judge; it was only a four-horse field, Honor A.P returned to run a well beaten fourth in the Derby (with a three-point drop in his figure) and the third-place horse, Kiss Today Goodbye, returned to run in a turf stakes. There are several speed types lining up on Saturday, including the top two choices (Authentic and Art Collector). Thousand Words might be able to trip out with a stalking run and then grind them down late. I will stick with the "other" Bob Baffert horse.

3 Art Collector (5-2) and 9 Authentic (9-5) are the two logical favorites. Art Collector would have been the second choice in the Kentucky Derby if he was not forced to scratch with a minor issue. He comes in with three consecutive triple-digit Beyer figures, proving both his talent and consistency. He is proven both on the lead and from a stalking position. However, his hand might be forced as the inside speed as he probably will not want to let multiple horses cross over in front of him and then try to work out a stalking trip. This will be his toughest test yet, but he's clearly capable.

Authentic comes off the Kentucky Derby win, which was the best race of his career. A repeat of that effort makes him the horse to beat, but I have some doubts. Can he stalk effectively? Will he be hard sent to lead? I don't see him getting a clear, easy lead, and if that's the case, he's vulnerable. The only caveat is that when Bob Baffert has horses going in the right direction, they often stay that way. Authentic has never run a bad race. Must be respected.

Exotic contenders
A filly, 4 Swiss Skydiver (6-1) will try the boys again. She ran second to Art Collector in the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland. I've been against Swiss Skydiver in her last couple of races, but she keeps putting in good efforts. She also likes to be forwardly placed. I have a hard time making a case for her turning the tables against Art Collector and the Baffert duo. She just might be better than the other exotic contenders in here, but race does not set up well for her. I'm using her defensively.

There are a number of late closer types who have shown some talent and could threaten to finish underneath. 2 Mr. Big News (12-1) is an improving type who made a late run for third in Derby. He doesn't appear to have tactical speed and will try to make another late run... Trainer Steve Asmussen sends out three. 1 Excession (30-1) returns off a seven-month layoff but finished a closing second to the highly regarded Nadal when last seen. 8 Max Player (15-1) is a late runner who is probably not a Grade 1 winner right now but still can hit the board with the right setup. 10 Pneumatic (20-1) will likely be more forwardly placed than the previous two. He should get first run and is the preference of these three.

Wagering strategy
I will focus on Thousand Words. His morning-line odds look fair, and with Authentic, Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver present I think the line will hold. Anything at 5-1 or higher deserves a win bet. In these situations, I like to follow an 80/20 rule: 80 percent of the wager with the top selection and 20 percent with the backups. (I will do two exacta savers under the two favorites.)

Wagers
$50 win 5 ($50)
$10 exacta 3,9 with 5 ($20)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 ($24)
$2 trifecta 5 with 3,9 with 2,3,9,10 ($12)

Total: $106

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

Preakness

In the San Felipe Stakes in March, Hammer gave out a $20 exacta that paid $180. In the Belmont Stakes in June, Goldberg was all over Tiz the Law, who scored a convincing victory in the year's first Triple Crown race. In the Blue Grass Stakes, Hammer nailed the Art Collector-Swiss Skydiver exacta for $169.40. In July, he hit the Authentic-Ny Traffic exacta in the Haskell for $158. And in August in the Pacific Classic, he gave out the Maximum Security-Sharp Samurai exacta for $177.50.


Here are Goldberg's top horses, listed in order of preference:

3 Art Collector (5-2)
Art Collector hasn't done anything wrong this year. He has won five straight races and, two starts ago, beat some good horses in the Blue Grass Stakes, including Swiss Skydiver. I think missing the Kentucky Derby may serve him well on Saturday; he has been training strongly for this race. And he will be forwardly placed in the early going, which is the right running style to win the Preakness. He's the top pick.

10 Pneumatic (20-1)
Pneumatic got a late start to his career, not making his debut until February, but he has been solid. He followed a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes with a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes. And his last start was arguably his best, winning the Pegasus with a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 98. I'm not crazy about the No. 10 post position, but he should be placed right behind the speed. He can run well on Saturday. I'll be using him in exactas.

9 Authentic (9-5)
Listen, I wouldn't be surprised if he repeated his Kentucky Derby performance and won the Preakness. He's obviously a very good horse trained by a man, Bob Baffert, who knows how to win this race. But there's a lot more speed in the Preakness than there was in the Derby, and he will be challenged early. He won't get a free pass this time by his rivals, who know what he can do when he sets an uncontested lead.

7 Ny Traffic (15-1)
I'm going to give Ny Traffic another chance. I realize he finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby, but he endured a cut on his left front ankle and lost his right front shoe in the race. That's a big deal. The Derby is the only bad race he's had since he joined trainer Saffie Joseph's barn. Ny Traffic should be close to the pace, and I expect a rebound performance.

Wagering strategy
I'm going to box my top four choices in an exacta. I'll also box my top two choices, Art Collector and Pneumatic, in an exacta in case my strongest opinions come through.

Wagers
$ 20 exacta box 3,10 ($40)
$ 5 exacta box 3,7,9,10 ($60)

Total: $100

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DOC SPORTS FOOTBALL
COLLEGE
7 -auburn+6.5
4-Kansas.state-2.5
3-Tennessee-11.5

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Indian Cowboy

Saturday 10 AM eastern

3 - Everton -.5 -135 over Brighton

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Ultra Sports

153 Auburn Tigers +7’

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Marc lawrence

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From vegas insider

smu
texas am
auburn

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Mississippi Kid
NCAAF
#153 Auburn TT Under 19.5 3U POD
Aub/Geo Under 44.5 1U
#18 West Virginia +3 1U
#144 Alabama -17.5 1U
#144 Alabama 1ST Half -10.5 1U
#153 Auburn 1st Half TT Under 9.5 2U

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Sports Information Traders

Baylor/West Virginia Under 54
Kansas State -2 1/2
Central Florida -21

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Elite Sports Picks

T.C.U./Texas OVER 62 (NCAAF)

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Insider Sports Report

5* Navy -7 over Air Force (NCAAF)
Range: -5.5 to -9.5

3* East Carolina/Georgia St. UNDER 69 (NCAAF)
Range: 71 to 67

3* North Carolina St. +14 over Pittsburgh (NCAAF)
Range: +15.5 to +11.5

3* L.S.U./Vanderbilt UNDER 51 (NCAAF)
Range: 52.5 to 48.5