Service Plays Saturday 10/3/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini

UT-SAN ANTONIO +20.5
UT-SAN ANTONIO @ UAB | 10/03 | 12:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:43 PM
Quietly, the UAB Blazers have one of the more impressive home winning streaks in college football. They’ve won 19 consecutive home games and cruised in last week’s 42-10 road victory over South Alabama. University of Texas-San Antonio enters this game banged up and likely won’t represent their 3-0 record. Yet, this is UAB’s first Saturday game of the season (three others were Thursday), and also its first day game. Look for the high number to pay dividends for UTSA.

4-3 IN LAST 7 CFB ATS PICKS | +70
MISS. STATE -17.5
ARKANSAS @ MISS. STATE | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:41 PM
For the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the benefit of an early season schedule has paved the way for defying expectations. After upsetting LSU, they will face an Arkansas team that’s a work in progress. Graduate transfer and former Gators starting quarterback Feleipe Franks has never been comfortable in fast-paced, high-scoring games. Look for the Bulldogs to take advantage as Mike Leach continues to light up the scoreboard.

4-3 IN LAST 7 CFB ATS PICKS | +70
3-1 IN LAST 4 MISSST ATS PICKS | +190

2-1 IN LAST 3 ARK ATS PICKS | +86

OLE MISS +6
OLE MISS @ KENTUCKY | 10/03 | 4:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:40 PM
Missed opportunities made the final score of Kentucky’s week one loss to Auburn worse than the outcome. Saturday, they’ll face an Ole Miss team coming off one of the worst defensive efforts last week against Florida. The Gators compiled 51 points and were forced to punt just once. Yet, Lane Kiffin will have his team better prepared as the Wildcats come out the gate 0-2 ATS.

4-3 IN LAST 7 CFB ATS PICKS | +70

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel

OVER 57.5
SOUTH CAROLINA @ FLORIDA | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
9:47 AM
Oddsmakers will probably get the message soon, maybe after this week, that the Florida totals have been too loo thus far. The Gators have one of the most explosive offensive units in the country and can be expected to put up 40-plus points per week. All they need for an Over dance partner is an opponent that is capable of putting up points of its own. South Carolina fits that description.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
3-1 IN LAST 4 FLA O/U PICKS | +188

SMU +2.5
MEMPHIS @ SMU | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:49 PM
The Mustangs are one of the most experienced teams in the 2020 season thus far, with three full games played and just once cancellation. The Tigers haven't played since their relatively lackluster win over Arkansas State a month ago. Not only does SMU have the edge in continuity, it likely has the better team. Quarterback Brady White is a major weapon for the Tigers, but their depth has been hurt by opt-outs. Shane Buechele of SMU is likely his equal and has a wider array of options to help out.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
2-1 IN LAST 3 SMU ATS PICKS | +95

4-3 IN LAST 7 MEMP ATS PICKS | +66

ALABAMA -17.5
TEXAS A&M @ ALABAMA | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:42 PM
The Tide had a solid if unspectacular performance last week against Missouri. Mac Jones was efficient at QB and Najee Harris carried the load in the backfield. The defense yielding 322 yards and 19 points to a limited Missouri team is a bit of a concern, but the opt-out depleted Aggies struggled to get past lowly Vanderbilt in an ugly performance. Of course they will improve, but this sets up as a favorable spot for Alabama to take advantage of an undermanned opponent.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
5-1-1 IN LAST 7 TXAM ATS PICKS | +390

NC STATE +14
NC STATE @ PITTSBURGH | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:33 PM
I've been slow to be a believer in Pitt, and the Panthers grinded out solid but unimpressive wins over Syracuse and Louisville the past two weeks. The Wolfpack looked dreadful last week after winning a shootout against Wake Forest in their opener, and a defense that has allowed 87 points in two games is definitely a concern. But barring a catastrophic outing on defense, NC State has enough weapons to fit inside this lofty number.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
9-4-1 IN LAST 14 PITT ATS PICKS | +451

FLORIDA -16.5
SOUTH CAROLINA @ FLORIDA | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:27 PM
There's value on the Gators now that this spread has dipped inside the key number of -17. Florida has one of the most powerfull offense in the country and out up 51 against Ole Miss last week despite looking as though it let its foot off the gas some in the second half with the outcome in hand. The Gamecocks have some nice offensive weapons and Colorado State transfer Collin Hill should thrive as he's paired again with Mike Bobo, who was his head coach in Fort Collins. Even so, it's tough to see South Carolina keeping pace even with the ample cushion.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
4-0 IN LAST 4 FLA ATS PICKS | +400

2-1 IN LAST 3 SC ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 64
TEXAS TECH @ KANSAS ST. | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:54 PM
Texas Tech's defense has been awful. It's allowing 48 points per game, and the average Red Raiders game has featured an average of 93.5 points through two weeks. Then there's Kansas State, which is undoubtedly better defensively than Tech but has played in two games that have broken the 66-point barrier. I'm expecting a course correction here, as the under is 10-3 the last 13 times Kansas State has been favored. That doesn't happen by accident. When Kansas State is playing its game, it's lower-scoring, and I think the Wildcats will be able to dictate play against the Red Raiders.

5-1 IN LAST 6 KSTATE O/U PICKS | +390

ALABAMA -17.5
TEXAS A&M @ ALABAMA | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:53 PM
It's generally not worth your time to bet on Alabama when it's at home, but in 10 games at home under Nick Saban when they've been favored by 17 or more, they've gone 7-3 ATS. The Tide have beaten the Aggies by an average of 20.5 points in the last two years, and only one of its wins against the Aggies since 2014 has come by fewer than 17 points.

6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +270
3-1 IN LAST 4 BAMA ATS PICKS | +190

UNDER 46.5
NAVY @ AIR FORCE | 10/03 | 6:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:50 PM
In the last 15 years there have been 45 games played between service academies battling for the Commander-In-Chief Trophy. The Under is 35-9-1 in those games.

2-1 IN LAST 3 AF O/U PICKS | +90

IOWA ST. +7
OKLAHOMA @ IOWA ST. | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:49 PM
I love betting on Matt Campbell when nobody believes in his team. The man is a spread-covering monster as an underdog. In his time at Toledo, his Rockets teams went 10-6 as an underdog in the regular season. At Iowa State, they've gone 18-7, so he's 28-13 overall. Making this even better is Campbell is 21-7 ATS as a dog in conference games (16-5 in the Big 12), and he's 4-0 ATS against Oklahoma. Now, he's never been less than a 14-point dog in those games, but he's also never lost to Oklahoma by more than 10. The Cyclones will stick around this weekend too.

6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +270
7-4 IN LAST 11 OKLA ATS PICKS | +259

2-1 IN LAST 3 IOWAST ATS PICKS | +81

GEORGIA -6.5
AUBURN @ GEORGIA | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:48 PM
Auburn beat Kentucky 29-13 last week, but averaged only 5.7 yards per play and lacked explosiveness on offense. If not for three Kentucky turnovers, that game could have turned out differently. Also, the Auburn offensive line was a legit concern for the team coming into the season, and I didn't see a lot last week that alleviated those concerns. Now they'll be facing what might be the best defense in the country, and I fear that Bo Nix could find himself hurried to make decisions.

6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +270
2-1 IN LAST 3 UGA ATS PICKS | +94

SO. MISS +1.5
SO. MISS @ NORTH TEXAS | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:47 PM
The Golden Eagles are 0-3 ATS so far this season, but find themselves as short dogs here against North Texas. Now, I've got nothing against the Mean Green, but this is a team that is 1-1 and had trouble stopping Houston Baptist in its season opener. Then, it allowed SMU to put up 65 points and 710 yards of offense in its second game. Now, I don't know how you live your life and I'm not here to judge, but if you make a habit of trusting teams that allow 48 points and 640 yards of offense per game as favorites, maybe it's time we sit down and talk things through.

6-3-1 IN LAST 10 CFB ATS PICKS | +270

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny White

EAST CAROLINA +1
EAST CAROLINA @ GEORGIA ST. | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
8:01 AM
Remember the name Mike Houston, East Carolina's head coach. He will have a Power Five coaching job in a few years. Houston won a FCS title at James Madison. His quarterback is Holton Ahlers, a dual-threat lefty that I'm expecting a nice year from after a solid game against UCF. The Pirates lost the turnover battle against UCF by four and still covered the 28-point spread. Georgia State is starting redshirt freshman Cornelious Brown, who rated out four points below average in his first college football start vs Louisiana. Georgia State caught Louisiana in a letdown spot from its win at Kansas State.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380

MISSOURI +11.5
MISSOURI @ TENNESSEE | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
7:58 AM
Missouri has revenge from last year on its mind after losing 24-20 at home in 2019. Tennessee plays Georgia next. Missouri was competitive against Alabama, covering the point spread easily. TCU transfer Shawn Robinson is a great addition for Missouri. He played extremely well versus a very solid Alabama defense. Tennessee head coach Jeremy Pruitt is 2-6 ATS in the first four games of the season over the last two years.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380

VIRGINIA +28
VIRGINIA @ CLEMSON | 10/03 | 8:00 PM EDT
7:56 AM
Bronco vs Dabo. Dabo wins, but Bronco stays within the point spread. Bronco has his best team since arriving in Charlottesville. Clemson clobbered Virginia 62-17 in the ACC Championship game last year. I thought Bronco would start Mississippi State transfer Keytaon Thompson, but he started Brennan Armstrong, who had a great first game. Virginia played fast, and when Bronco plays fast, he knows he has a solid offense and defense.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380
2-1 IN LAST 3 UVA ATS PICKS | +95

W. KENTUCKY -7
W. KENTUCKY @ MIDDLE TENN. | 10/03 | 5:00 PM EDT
7:54 AM
I'm relying on my power ratings here. I have the Hilltoppers (0-2) 15 points better than the Blue Raiders (0-3). I think WKU is better than both Army and Troy, who combined to beat MTSU 89-14. Game 1 for the Hilltoppers was against Louisville, which is basically their Super Bowl. They lost and had a major letdown the following week against Liberty, a team I have rated nine points higher than the Blue Raiders.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380

CHARLOTTE +6.5
CHARLOTTE @ FAU | 10/03 | 4:00 PM EDT
7:53 AM
I would've laid -6.5 with Charlotte for a small play, but taking +6.5 makes this one my biggest play of the year! Florida Atlantic will be playing with new HC Willie Taggart, no spring practices and heavy losses on both offense and defense -- where it returns just 46 percent of its tackles from last year. Charlotte has a game under its belt where it played very well at Appalachian State. The 49ers also have revenge from last year on their mind after losing 45-27 when they were 1.5-point underdogs at home. Go Niners!

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB PICKS | +380

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CleInsiderSports

Georgia State -1
Missouri +13
Kansas State -2.5
Florida Atlantic -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

newworldinsiders

texas over 61 (texas insider)
south carolina +18 (sec insider)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

NAVY -7
NAVY @ AIR FORCE | 10/03 | 6:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:47 PM
How fitting that Air Force, an institution that uses camouflage in training its cadets, is shrouded in secrecy entering its opener. A reported 40 players were allowed to defer this season, but the Mountain West Conference recently did a 180 and restored the schedule. Will any of them return? QB Donald Hammond was force to disassociate with the program, and it’s unclear if his status has changed. Let’s assume multiple Falcons are missing and that Navy, which opened with six quarters of horrible football, will ride the momentum from outscoring Tulane 27-0 in the second half of its mega-comeback win.

8-7 LAST 15 CFB SIDES | +30
2-0-1 IN LAST 3 NAVY ATS PICKS | +200

2-1 IN LAST 3 AF ATS PICKS | +89

CHARLOTTE +6.5
CHARLOTTE @ FAU | 10/03 | 4:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:43 PM
These teams have suffered through a combined four postponements and cancellations. Only Charlotte (0-1) has a game under its belt, which tips the scales in the 49ers’ favor. Lane Kiffin did not quite leave the cupboard bare for Willie Taggart at FAU, but the QB and most WRs are gone, along with the top four tacklers and interceptions leader from 2019. Charlotte QB Chris Reynolds is dealing with a reported “upper body” injury (what is this, hockey?) but is expected to play.

8-7 LAST 15 CFB SIDES | +30

SMU +2.5
MEMPHIS @ SMU | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:40 PM
Memphis can barely remember the last time it played. (Answer: one month ago). Meanwhile, SMU has rung up 48.7 points per game, fifth most in the land, in three wins. A new coach, Ryan Silverfield, directs the Tigers, and he might lack the experience to navigate the challenges of coaching in a COVID-19 season. Experience is no issue on the other sideline with the veteran Sonny Dykes. The mid-70s total hints at a shootout, and the Mustangs are in better physical condition to endure until the end.

8-7 LAST 15 CFB SIDES | +30
3-0 IN LAST 3 MEMP ATS PICKS | +300

2-1 IN LAST 3 SMU ATS PICKS | +92

TCU +11.5
TCU @ TEXAS | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:35 PM
Three of Texas’ least favorite letters: T, C and U. Since the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, they are 6-2 straight-up against the Longhorns, mostly as underdogs. TCU’s defense did get shredded by Iowa State, but so did the Horns’ by Texas Tech, which piled up 56 points. The Frogs unveiled an entirely new offensive line in their opener, and it still helped the unit generate 499 yards. They should score enough to stay within single digits of the Horns.

8-7 LAST 15 CFB SIDES | +30
2-1 IN LAST 3 TCU ATS PICKS | +87

SOUTH CAROLINA +18
SOUTH CAROLINA @ FLORIDA | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:32 PM
The largest spread of the 21st century in this series is irresistible. Though Florida’s offense amassed 642 yards in the opener, its defense yielded just 29 fewer. New Gamecocks offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who has returned to the SEC after a head coach gig out west, has brought verve to the unit. South Carolina was occasionally sharp in a narrow defeat to Tennessee and should reach the 20s in points. That would force Florida to nearly reprise its massive offensive output against Ole Miss for a cover. Take the points.

8-7 LAST 15 CFB SIDES | +30
7-0 IN LAST 7 SC ATS PICKS | +700

6-1-1 IN LAST 8 FLA ATS PICKS | +488

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barton Simmons

LSU -20.5
LSU @ VANDERBILT | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:59 PM
LSU got a rude awakening last weekend, but the matchup is much more favorable against Vandy. LSU will try to operate with tempo and pace and force Vandy into more plays than A&M tried to stress them with last week. I think an extended game with more opportunity to assert an athleticism advantage should help LSU with the cover. The 3.8 yards per play we saw out of Vandy against Texas A&M gets exposed against an LSU team that is looking to redeem itself a little bit. Vandy has neither the system or the athletes to test LSU like it was tested last week.

2-1 IN LAST 3 LSU ATS PICKS | +89

UNDER 45
AUBURN @ GEORGIA | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:57 PM
I expect Georgia to do a really good job of keeping Bo Nix contained in the pocket and forcing him to win with his arm. The Auburn run game couldn’t get going against Kentucky so I don’t think they find their footing against Georgia. I don’t have much more confidence in Georgia to do any better offensively. They didn’t look dangerous against Arkansas and the Auburn defense is much more stout. Barring multiple non-offensive scores, I like the Under to cash easily.

OVER 62.5
OKLAHOMA @ IOWA ST. | 10/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:56 PM
Don’t mistake the loss last week from Oklahoma as any sort of indictment on the Sooners’ ability to move the football. Spencer Rattler and company can still put up points. They just need to take care of the football. OU will get theirs. In this matchup, Iowa State has been able to put up some points too and this offense is starting to find its footing, especially in the run game. Both teams cross the 30-point mark and it could tick much higher.

NORTH CAROLINA -13.5
NORTH CAROLINA @ BOSTON COLLEGE | 10/03 | 3:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:56 PM
North Carolina has been sitting on the sideline for two weeks waiting to play. Meanwhile it’s been watching a Boston College team that was outgained by Texas State, and needed five turnovers from Duke to pull a debut upset. North Carolina is extremely talented and should cruise past a BC team that will get exposed as a program with some work still to do under new coach Jeff Hafley.

TCU +11.5
TCU @ TEXAS | 10/03 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:53 PM
Gary Patterson has beaten Texas on six of his last eight tries. I’m not sure why we should believe this is somehow the Longhorn machine that should shake up his success. I don’t know if TCU wins but this does appear to be a matchup that can work for the Horned Frogs. Max Duggan can throw the ball. TCU has some skilled playmakers. Texas has had some issues on the back end. TCU’s run defense was exposed by Texas still hasn’t shown it can run the ball that effectively. This is just too many points

3-0 IN LAST 3 TCU ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ATS

TCU +10 HUGE play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

3* ucf/tulsa under
2* clemson
2* texas
2* kansas st
2* georgia/auburn under 1st half

[Istandfortheanthem]

KING CREOLE | CFB TOTAL SAT, 10/03/20 - 3:30 PM
144 Alabama / 143 Texas A&M Over 51.5 Pinnacle
double-dime bet
Analysis:
Saturday, Oct. 3rd / SEC Conference
TEXAS A&M AGGIES @ ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT / #143-144


We’re playing the VALUE in this SEC game on Saturday afternoon. And that value is on the OVER when the Crimson Tide host the Aggies at 3:30pm ET. The OU line for this one opened at 53.5 points. As we prepare our writeup on Wednesday afternoon, the lie has fallen to 51.5 points. That is the line that I bet it at… and that’s your target line. According to our database models and simulations, we have this game combining for at least 58 points. And that’s just at the low end of the scale. Yes, there’s a lot of action on the UNDER in this one. The last time I looked, at least 75% of all early tickets are anticipating a lower-than-expected final score. But most of those bettors are only looking at last week’s A&M / Vandy result before making their knee-jerk one week reaction. For me, that low-scoring contest last week only enhances our value on the OVER. Let’s make no mistake. The Aggies were looking forward to THIS game when they took the field against the Commodores last week. As a result, thy kept many aspects of their offense under wraps. And that was BY DESIGN. We cannot downgrade the Aggies based on the fact that they kept a lot of things secret last week… and we’re definitely in “Look Ahead MODE’. A&M has a much stronger offense than the one that showed up against Vandy. And why can blame them? A lot of teams have been ‘off’ on their first game of the season because of the Covid Virus. QB Kellen Mond is back for another season and the offensive line is intact as well. Let’s not forget about the Crimson Tide either. They started out the 2020 season with an ‘OVER’ in their game versus Missouri. The Tide scored an easy 14 points in the 1st quarter, and matched that with 14 more in the2nd quarter… to take a 28-3 lead into halftime. And that’s when they took their feet off the GAS… scoring just 10 points in the 2nd half. Like their counterparts, that was also ‘by design’… as they had their eyes on THIS week’s game. Also surprising was the fact that ‘Bama allowed more than 250 passing yards in that game by the Missouri offense. Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is Alabama 34.5 - Texas A&M 17. Our database models come up with a slightly higher o~utcome. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 41 - TEXAS A&M 20. That’s about 9.5 points higher than the current OU Line. And that triggers a normal 2** Play for our service.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Rainey / The Rainman

1☆ Alabama -18, Mississippi State -17
5☆ Cincinnati -21

10☆ Pittsburgh -14

[FATMANWINS]

ats
15 tcu
7 missouri
7 k st
7 va tech

[rocky57]

The Difference (The Swami CFB) - 10* Top Play West Virginia +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Rivers

Blank Check
Waive The Rating
College Football
Game of my 19-Year Career

Miss St