Friday 11/6/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 08:57 AM

College Football Odds Week 10: Opening lines and sharp money
Patrick Everson

With quarterback Trevor Lawrence out of the lineup and in COVID protocol, running back Travis Etienne will be key for No. 1 Clemson this week at No. 4 Notre Dame. FanDuel has the Tigers 5.5-point favorites.

College football odds for Week 10 are on the betting board and getting action, with a couple of gems on this week's schedule. No. 1 Clemson, minus star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, travels to No. 4 Notre Dame, while No. 8 Florida and No. 5 Georgia square off in their annual neutral-site showdown.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 10 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.

College football Week 10 odds

These are the current College football Week 10 odds for the premier games on the schedule, as of November 2.

Matchup Time Spread Over/Under
(9) BYU at (23) Boise State 9:45 p.m. ET Friday BYU -2.5 59.5
Air Force at (22) Army 11:30 a.m. ET Saturday Army -4.5 40.5
Houston at (6) Cincinnati 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Cincinnati -13.5 56.5
(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana Noon ET Saturday Michigan -2.5 51.5
Rutgers at (3) Ohio State 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Ohio State -38 TBA
Arizona State at (20) USC Noon ET Saturday USC -11.5 58.5
Stanford at (14) Oregon 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday Oregon -10.5 52.5
(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State 4 p.m. ET Saturday Kansas State +12.5 46.5
(8) Florida vs (5) Georgia 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday Georgia -4.5 53.5
(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame 7 p.m. ET Saturday Clemson -5.5 51.5

(9) BYU at (23) Boise State odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under 59.5

Why the line moved
This game opened pick 'em at FanDuel and moved to Brigham Young -2.5 Monday afternoon, with practically every early ticket and all the early dollars on the Cougars. The total dipped two points to 57.5, then returned to the opener of 59.5, with ticket count 9/1 on the Over and 72 percent of early cash on the Over, as well.

Air Force at (22) Army odds
Opening line
Army -6.5, Over/Under 41.5

Why the line moved
The Black Knights were already down two points at FanDuel, sitting as 4.5-point favorites Monday night on some interesting point-spread betting splits: ticket count is more than 2/1 Army, but money is almost dead even. The total is also down a point to 40.5, with 77 percent of bets and nearly all the money on the Under.

Houston at (6) Cincinnati Odds
Opening line
Cincinnati -10.5, Over/Under 58.5

Why the line moved
Cincinnati opened -10.5 at FanDuel and sped to -13.5 by Monday afternoon, but the betting splits are a bit wild. The Bearcats are attracting 95 percent of early tickets, but money is two-way, with 52 percent of early dollars on double-digit-dog Houston. The total is down to 56.5 from 58.5, with a 4/1 ticket count on the Under and almost all the early money on the Under.

(25) Michigan at (13) Indiana odds
Opening line
Michigan -3.5, Over/Under 55.5

Why the line moved
Michigan, coming off a stunning home loss to Michigan State, opened -3.5 at FanDuel and moved to -2.5. As of Monday night, 53 percent of bets and 68 percent of money were on the Wolverines. The total tumbled from 55.5 to 51.5, with 62 percent of tickets on the Over, but 74 percent of cash on the Under.

Rutgers at (3) Ohio State Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -38, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Ohio State opened a massive favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate, and there was no line movement on Monday. The Buckeyes are coming off a 38-25 victory at Penn State, while Rutgers fell to visiting Indiana 37-21.

Arizona State at (20) USC odds
Opening line
Southern California -9.5, Over/Under 59.5

Why the line moved
And hello to the Pac-12, which finally joins the college football scene on the first weekend of November. By Monday night, USC was already up to -11.5 at FanDuel in a game drawing two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Arizona State and 55 percent of money on Southern Cal. The total ticked from 59.5 to 58.5, though 69 percent of bets and 60 percent of dollars were on the Over as of Monday night.

Stanford at (14) Oregon odds
Opening line
Oregon -9.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Staying in the Pac-12, FanDuel sped to Ducks -12 Sunday afternoon, but a volatile line was down to -10.5 by late Monday morning. Still, ticket count and money were both running 4/1 on Oregon. The total dipped from 53.5 to 52.5 Monday, with tickets split 50/50 but almost all the early money on the Under.

(12) Oklahoma State at Kansas State odds
Opening line
Oklahoma State -9.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
The Cowboys bolted to -13.5 at FanDuel by early Monday afternoon, then receded a bit to -12.5. It's two-way action early, with 59 percent of tickets on Kansas State and 53 percent of money on Oklahoma State. The total first went up to 51.5, then plummeted to 46.5, with tickets more than 2/1 on the Over, but money 2/1 on the Under.

(8) Florida at (5) Georgia odds
Opening line
Georgia -4.5, Over/Under 52.5

Why the line moved
It's a neutral-site game in Jacksonville, Fla., for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, the unofficial name of this rivalry. FanDuel opened the Bulldogs -4.5, and that number stuck through Monday night, while the total moved from 52.5 to 53.5, but betting splits were not yet available.

(1) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame odds
Opening line
Clemson -6.5, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved
FanDuel posted a look-ahead line for this game back on Oct. 24, with Clemson a 14.5-point road chalk. However, last week's news that Tigers stud QB Trevor Lawrence tested positive for COVID-19 led to that line coming off the board. On the subsequent news that Lawrence won't play this week, the line went up at Clemson -6.5 Sunday and fell to -5.5 Monday. The Tigers were landing 60 percent of bets/64 percent of money on the spread through Monday night. The total opened 51.5 and went to 52.5 before returning to the opener Monday, with 76 percent of bets on the Over, but 53 percent of early money on the Under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 08:58 AM

Home favorites/underdogs in college football conferences:

AAC— 5-9-1 home favorites, 4-4 home underdogs

ACC— 11-10-1 HF, 10-5 HU

Big 14— 3-3 HF, 3-3 HU

Big X— 9-5-1 HF, 4-7 HU

C-USA— 2-12 HF, 3-3 HU

Mountain West— 4-1 HF, 3-3 HU

SEC— 9-8 HF, 10-8 HU

Sun Belt— 7-4 HF, 5-2 HU

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 09:01 AM

309MIAMI -310 NC STATE
NC STATE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

313BYU -314 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) in home games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 09:02 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 10

Friday, November 6

Miami-FL @ NC State

Game 309-310
November 6, 2020 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
92.628
NC State
88.843
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 4
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 10
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(+10); Under

San Jose St @ San Diego St

Game 311-312
November 6, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose St
79.571
San Diego St
93.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 14
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 9
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego St
(-9); Under

Brigham Young @ Boise State

Game 313-314
November 6, 2020 @ 9:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
96.611
Boise State
101.435
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 5
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 3
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(+3); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 09:58 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, November 6

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MIAMI (5 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 2) - 11/6/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN JOSE ST (2 - 0) at SAN DIEGO ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-1 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 2-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BYU (7 - 0) at BOISE ST (2 - 0) - 11/6/2020, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 156-113 ATS (+31.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 98-67 ATS (+24.3 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 89-56 ATS (+27.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BYU is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 2-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-1 straight up against BYU over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 09:59 AM

NCAAF

Week 10

Trend Report

Friday, November 6

Miami-FL @ North Carolina State
Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami-FL's last 22 games on the road
North Carolina State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of North Carolina State's last 6 games
North Carolina State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home

San Jose State @ San Diego State
San Jose State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Jose State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State's last 6 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Jose State
San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Jose State

Brigham Young @ Boise State
Brigham Young
Brigham Young is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Brigham Young's last 7 games on the road
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brigham Young
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 10:00 AM

NCAAF

Week 10

Friday’s games

Miami (5-1) @ NC State (4-2)
— Miami is 5-1, allowing 19 or fewer points in four of their five wins.
— Hurricanes split two road games, allowing 34-42 points.
— Miami has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Miami has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hurricanes’ senior QB has started 25 games.
— Miami is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite.

— NC State is 4-2, giving up 45-42 points in their two losses.
— Wolfpack beat Wake Forest/Duke at home, scoring 45-31 points.
— Wolfpack has 10 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— State has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Wolfpack has injury issues at QB; they’ve already used three. A freshman finished up their game in Chapel Hill LW.
— Since 2013, State is 7-5 ATS as a home underdog.

— Miami (-2.5) won 27-13 at NC State in last series games, four years ago.

San Jose State (2-0) @ San Diego State (2-0)
— San Jose won its first two games, by 11-17 points.
— First road game for Spartans, who threw for 481 yards LW.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 12 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last 2+ years, San Jose is 8-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— San Diego State won its first two MW games by a combined 72-13.
— Aztecs had 694 rushing yards in those two games.
— San Diego State has 6 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Aztecs have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— San Diego State has a soph QB with eight starts.
— Since 2017, Aztecs are 3-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— San Diego State won last five series games (27-17/16-13 last two).
— Spartans 16-13/42-3 in their last two visits to San Diego.

BYU (7-0) @ Boise State (0-1)
— BYU is 7-0, winning six of its seven games by 17+ points.
— Cougars won 55-3/43-26 in their two road games (Navy/Houston)
— Cougars have 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cougars have a junior QB with 23 career starts.
— Since 2017, BYU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite.

— Boise State won its first two games, 42-13/49-30
— Broncos allowed 415 YR against Air Force’s option attack LW.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a junior QB with two career starts; he is a USC transfer.
— Over last 11 years, Boise State is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog.

— Boise is 7-3 in last ten series games; they lost 28-25 (-7) at BYU last year.
— Cougars lost 21-16/28-27 in last two games on the blue turf.
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-05-2020, 10:01 AM

Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Week 10 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, Nov. 4 with MACtion and concludes on Saturday Nov. 7.

We've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Friday, Nov. 6

MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
NC State has covered its first two in Raleigh this season and 5-1 “over” as well in 2020.
Canes only 1-4 vs. line last five as chalk away from home (though 1-0 in role this season).

Tech Edge: Slight to NCS and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE (CBSSN, 9:00 p.m.)
SJSU on 11-4-1 spread run since late 2018, 9-3 last 12 as dog.
Spartans however haven’t beaten SDSU outright since 2012.
Aztecs covered vs. feeble UNLV in opener but home chalk not a good role lately (5-12 since 2017).

Tech Edge: SJSU, based on team trends.

BYU at BOISE STATE (FS1, 9:45 p.m.)
Cougs 7-0 SU, 6-1 vs. line in 2020, won and covered first two on road.
BYU has covered 4 of last 5 series meetings.
Boise State now 8-3 last 11 vs. line at home after previous struggles on the blue carpet.

Tech Edge: Slight to BYU, based on series trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 06:34 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

November 6, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 12-race card set to start the weekend. The 0.20 Early Pick 5 kicks-off the card. The sequence
has a $100,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

3-Moon Bridge (5/2)-Form has been so-so but should be a player versus this kind. Appears to have the best chance to down #4. Filion takes the lines and he has driven before, so will look for an aggressive start.
4-Angel Nation (3-1)-Stands out in this field but has been off since the Super Final on 10/17. Came home in 55.3 to finish 2nd against a tough field. Should enjoy the company and is a major threat if ready to bring a top effort.

Race 2

2-Beach Demon (3-1)-Started from post 10 and rallied off cover with a 54.3 back half. MacDonald takes a seat and maybe he will look for the same type of trip but not be 13 lengths back at the start.
5-Perseus Seelster (4-1)- Debut for the Moreau barn wasn't inspiring but comes right back 6 days later and will look for better. Has been in the money in 6 of 14 starts at Wbsb with 2 wins and should offer a fair price.
7-Wind Blown (7/2)-Comes off a rough trip from the 2nd tier and faces a different group tonight. Harris could blast out and has the gate speed to get the top and make every call a winning one.

Race 3

6-Better Be Donna N (3-1)-This mare likes the track winning 12 of 48 starts and should be able to get the top or the 2 hole without using up much gas. This looks like a field to get an overdue win but #7 should have something to say.
7-Major League N (7/2)-Finished slightly ahead of #6 in last and as usual blasted out and got on the engine. Should be just in front of or right behind Donna all the way around setting up an interesting stretch drive.

Race 4

2-Nice Kitty Hanover (4-1)-Racing well recently but in last start was too far back into a .58 half. Gets post relief tonight and the pace should be livelier which should help this closer.
5-Bettimontheriver (5-1)-Has been trying hard and should enjoy the post relief. Makes 4th start for Moreau and Filion can work a good trip to take a picture at a square price.
6-Docs Harmony (7/2)--Going first over isn't the recipe for success for this filly. Cullen should be able to find live cover and this race could set up nicely. Banking on an honest pace and like #2 that helps chances.

Race 5

1-Delightful Terror (3-1)-Recent form has been dull but has been facing stiff competition and that should make this colt a serious threat versus this crew. Drury takes a spin and that shouldn't hurt chances.
3-Cold Creek Cabo (7/2)-Usually is in the mix but burned money as the chalk in last. This is a rebound spot and could benefit from the inside draw and get sucked around to roll by late.
4-Century Grizzly (9/2)-Makes 3rd start off the bench, started slowly and had a difficult journey in last. Looking for a much better effort and might be overlooked at the windows.

0.20 Pick 5

3,4/2,5,7/6,7/2,5,6/1,3,4
Total Bet=$21.60

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 06:36 AM

Jeff Siegel's Keeneland Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 11/06/20

November 6, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Keeneland Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, November 6, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 11:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Highly Motivated; 6-Quick Tempo

Forecast: Quick Tempo added blinkers for the first time and returned to winning form with a gate-to-wire dominating score two weeks ago at Parx and today steps up in class with a speed figure that is good enough to win at this level. The son of Tapizar looks to be the quickest in the field and if he can clear early without undue pressure the C. Davis-trained juvenile may be very tough to catch. Highly Motivated has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, having just broken his maiden nicely from a second flight, stalking position at Belmont Park in late September. The C. Brown-trained son of Into Mischief has plenty of room for further development, so with a trouble-free trip from the rail he should heard from in the final furlong. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Quick Tempo on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:05 ET Grade: B+
Single: 11-Farsighted

Forecast: Farsighted broke her maiden over the local main track last month with a visually pleasing effort and appears quite capable of winning on the raise in this listed stakes sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Bernardini kicked clear with authority to graduate over six furlongs by seven widening lengths while given every indication that today’s extra half-furlong will promote her stalking style. Three easy workouts since that race indicate she’s ready to step forward again, so at 5-1 on the morning line the G. Arnold-trained 2-year-old is worth a good gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-No Word; 5-Pixelate; 6-Fancy Liquor

Forecast: The Bryan Station Stakes, restricted to 3-year-olds over a mile and one-eighth, looks very much like a grass grab bag. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by but you may find the need to spread even deeper. No Wordfinished a strong second in the Belmont Derby-G1 last month while earning a career-top speed figure and not much more will be needed to land him in the winner’s circle. In a race that projects to be slowly run early the Silent Name colt has enough tactical speed to always be within range and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Pixelate won the Del Mar Derby-G2 two races back in excellent style and today is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. Fifth in the Belmont Derby when victimized by a wide trip and a lack of pace, the City Zip colt could easily bounce back today at a decent (8-1) price. Fancy Liquor picks up 4 lbs. following his game win in the American Turf S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in early September but today’s projected pace flow looks somewhat softer and we’re expecting the son of Looking At Lucky should have a relatively easy trip pressing or even establishing the pace. A winner of three of six career starts, the M. Maker-trained colt is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: J; 4-Into Chocolate; 7-Unholy Alliance

Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive affair, a six furlong listed stakes sprint for fillies and mares. Unholy Alliance was in a tad too tough when fourth in the Honorable Miss S.-G3 at Saratoga last time out but this group should be well within her capabilities. An overnight win at Saratoga two races back charts very well in this affair, and in a race that shouldn’t have fast early fractions the daughter of First Samurai projects to be within striking range throughout. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a square number. Into Chocolate, always most effective as a late-running sprinter, looked good winning the Chillingworth S.-G3 at Santa Anita in late September in a race that produced a career top speed figure and has trained quite well since to remain on edge. She’s reunited with J. Ortiz, who rode her to a win last summer at Belmont Park, and on paper appears much better than her morning line of 12-1 would indicate. These two will comprise our main punch in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Unholy Alliance.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Single: 13-Cupid’s Claws

Forecast: Cupid’s Claws looked terrific winning a similar main track marathon at Santa Anita in late September, stalking the pace in hand and then quickening readily when turned loose heading for home. Primarily a turf or synthetic specialist throughout his career, the son of Kitten’s Joy may have found a home on conventional dirt and if he can turn in two alike he can win right back under F. Prat. He’s 5-1 on the morning line and offers excellent value at that price in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ubettabelievit; 14-Golden Pal

Forecast: Prior to entries being drawn Golden Pal seemed like a logical rolling exotic single in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint S.-G1 and in fact projected as one of the most probable winners in the two-day Breeders’ Cup carnival. That was before he drew 14 of 14 in this five and one-half furlong dash. Now what? Second in his first two outings – the first in a maiden dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park and the second (by a neck) in the Norfolk S.-G2 at Royal Ascot – the W. Ward-trained colt finally figured things out when trouncing a good field in the Skidmore S. at Saratoga in mid-August while looking very much like the top class turf sprinter that he was cut out to be. Winning geared down by more than three lengths while earning a powerful 92 Beyer speed figure, the son of Uncle Mo has been kept on edge with a healthy series of easy drills that should have him fit, fresh and ready. Yes, that post position is problematic and he’ll have to bust out and get over to avoid getting parked before the field hits the far turn, so at 8/5 on the morning line he can’t make an mistakes at the break.

For those looking for a tote-buster, consider the European invader Ubettabelieveit, a no-fluke 40-1 come-from-behind winner of the straightaway five furlong Flying Childers S.-G2 at Doncaster in mid-September in his most recent start. Interestingly, that performance garnered a 92 Timeform rating, the same figure that was assigned to Golden Pal in his Norfolk triumph. He’s 20-1 on the morning line. We’re going to try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just the two listed above.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sealiway; 2-New Mandate; 6-Mutasaabeq; 9-Battleground; 12-Go Athletico

Forecast: This may be the most contentious race of the two-day Breeders’ Cup festival. We can pinpoint at least six major contenders and even a few others among the field of 14 that have a right to at least hit the board. The European contingent has strength in numbers and it would not be surprising to see the winner emerge from that group. Battleground, a War Front colt from 2015 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Found, was beaten on debut when given a run in June at Naas but left that form far behind when winning both the listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and then the Vintage S.-G2 the following month at Goodwood. His Timeform numbers aren’t off the charts but they’re rising with each outing, and he has every right to be far superior now after three additional months of development and maturity. It should be noted that the layoff wasn’t necessarily by design, as a cough cost him a start in mid-September in the National S.-G1 at The Curragh. From the yard of A. O’Brian (a four-time winner of this race), he’s the most fancied price among those quoted by European bookmakers and is listed at 6-1 on the Keeneland morning line. He’ll offer excellent wagering value at or near that price.

Sealiway arrives following a thoroughly impressive eight-length victory in the Prix Jean-Luc Legardere-G1 on Arc day that was assigned a superior 105 Timeform Rating, but the performance, eye-catching as it may have been, was accomplished in a bog and may not be transferable to the Keeneland course, which may feel like top-of-the-ground in comparison. The French-bred colt certainly is not a one-hit wonder, as overall he’s been successful in four of six starts including a win in a listed stakes to go along with two other stakes placings, among them a strong runner-up effort in the Prix la Rochette-G3. With a good stalking style and the ability to accelerate, the F. Rossie-trained colt should be free and clear of most of the traffic and have every chance to show his best stuff when the pressure is turned on.

New Mandate is a progressive gelding that caught the eye winning the Royal Lodge S.-G2 over a testing straightaway mile at Newmarket in late September, settling early and then quickening impressively in the final stages. It was his third straight win from five career starts and was clearly his best; with another forward move (or at least a repeat of that performance) he’ll be right there.

Go Athletico, a winner over Sealiway in the Prix la Rochette-G2 and subsequently an excellent runner-up when sent to France in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffite-G2 at Chantilly, has never been worse that second and shows Timeform ratings that have risen with every one of his five career starts. Despite having low profile connections, he’s a “must use” somewhere on your ticket.

The North American group appears decent but hardly spectacular. You may feel the need to include (at least on a back-up ticket) Mutasaabeq the smart winner of the Bourbon S.-G2 over the course and distance at Keeneland last month after changing tactics from a pace-presser to a deep closer. Similar patient tactics surely will be employed again.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:50 ET Grade: C
Use: 1-Simply Ravishing; 2-Vequist; 3-Dayoutoftheoffice; 5-Girl Daddy; 7-Princess Noor

Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert hasn’t won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies S.-G1 since saddling Indian Blessing to victory in 2007 – he’s had nine starters since - so when you evaluate the California-based Princess Noor it’s difficult to give her any extra credit for representing the winningest barn according to purse earnings in the BC history. Furthermore, her career top Equibase speed figure (96) would rank only 23 of 28 since the numbers were first published in 1992 and the 82 assigned to her most recent victory in the Chandelier S.-G2 would not have been good enough to win any edition of BC Juvenile Fillies during that time frame. So, what do you believe, the numbers, or your eyes? Admittedly, she has been beating substandard competition but the daughter of Not This Time, purchased for $1.35 million at the OBS April Sale, hasn’t yet been asked yet for anything close to her best according to the trainer, who says regular jockey V. Espinoza has been under instructions to win her races “by as little as possible, just like American Pharoah.” No such restrictions will be in place on the first Friday in November at Keeneland. In the meantime we can get a glimpse of her potential by watching her train, and it’s difficult to imagine any of her main rivals being more impressive during workouts leading up to the race that will determine divisional championship honors. The problem is she’s listed at 7/5 on the morning line and at that price she’s probably not going to be offering any value.

Based strictly on speed figures Dayoutoftheoffice is considerably faster than the California invader, though she has yet to try two-turns and her pedigree (Into Mischief from an Indian Charlie mare) doesn’t guarantee that she’ll be just as effective running long as short. A one-turn mile victory in the Frizette S.-G1 was visually pleasing to be sure, as she switched off nicely while stalking the pace and then kicked clear when given her cue. The old handicapping axiom – even if they don’t want to route they will the first time they try it – certainly can be applied by those who believe she’s a cut above the rest, and she may very well be, which is why the T. Hamm-trained filly is strictly the one to beat.

Others in the race that deserve strong consideration include Simply Ravishing (perfect in three starts including a six length romp over this course and distance in the Alcibiades S.-G1 last month) and Girl Daddy (undefeated in two starts including the Pocahontas S.-G3 in smart style but trying two turns for the first time). Additionally, Vyquist, a clear second behind Dayoutoftheoffice in the Frizette with a less than ideal trip and before that a nine length winner of the Spinaway S.-G1, has every right to highly competitive.

Big ticket punters may find the need to spread deeply in this race, using each filly mentioned in this analysis somewhere on their rolling exotic tickets. That will be our strategy.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Miss Amulet; 4-Plum Ali; 5-Aunt Pearl; 10-Campanelle

Forecast: Aunt Pearl enters this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 unblemished, having won her debut at Saratoga in September by five widening lengths on the front end going long and then dominating gate-to-wire over this Keeneland course and distance when capturing the Jessamine S.-G2 the following month. She’s an Irish-bred with immense quality but today, with the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Campanelle is the field, most likely will be relegated to a stalker’s role, which won’t necessary be a bad thing since she hardly strikes us as a need-the-lead type. Already successful twice around two turns, she’ll have no distance concerns based on performance and pedigree but a contrarian would point out that her winning Equibase speed figure (96) in the Jessamine would be good enough to win only one of the previous 12 editions of this race. We’ll see how good she really is today.

Undefeated in three starts, a graded stakes winner at Royal Ascot and Deauville and easily the controlling speed if she wants to be, the W. Ward-trained Campanellecertainly will be tough to catch in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 over a mile on grass if she rates kindly on the front end and exhibits the type of reserve energy that she displayed under pressure both in the Queen Mary S.-G2 and most recently in the Prix Morny-G1. The daughter of Kodiak has been away for 10 weeks but her healthy once-a-week work pattern over the same Keeneland turf course provides hope that she’ll see out the trip. If there is a concern, it’s that in her only previous non-straightaway performance – her five furlong debut sprint win at Gulfstream Park on turf – she was considerably late changing leads, and in her most recent workout she again didn’t switch over until approaching the wire. If she is sloppy on her leads again today, that final furlong could prove problematic.

Miss Amulet is a “must use” at her listed morning line price of 12-1. An excellent runner-up in the 6F Cheveley Park S.-G1 at Newmarket in late September and before that the winner of the 14-runner Lowther S.-G2 at York, she’s elevated her Timeform ratings in each of seven career starts and has proven to be thoroughly genuine. The issue is the trip – this will be her first try farther than seven furlongs and her first around a turn – but if she can switch off and settle behind Campanelle the daughter of Sir Prancealot (from an Oasis Dream mare) certainly has the pedigree to stay the mile.

Plum Ali is perfect in three starts, with two stakes wins on her resume that include the recent Miss Grillo S.-G2 last month at Belmont Park. She probably hasn’t beaten much yet and her numbers are nothing more than decent, but if the pace is contested her late-running style could make her dangerous, though we’d probably want more than her morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:15 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Essential Quality; 7-Jackie’s Warrior; 8-Classier

Forecast: It’s hard to get past Jackie’s Warrior, the undefeated two-time Grade-1 winner with rising speed figures in each of his four outings and the earner of a triple-digit Beyer fig when much best on the lead throughout in the 8F Champagne S.-G1 last month. This will be his first try around two turns, and as a son of Maclean’s Music there’s always going to be some doubt whether he’ll be just as dominating two-turning. In his debut he stalked, pounced, and drew off, so the option is available for J. Rosario to adjust if necessary depending upon the race flow, but having said that he’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics.

Stranger danger – and good long shot value - comes in the form of the B. Baffert-trained Classier, a debut sprint winner by daylight without ever being asked for anything close to his best less than two weeks ago at Santa Anita. A $775,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, he’s being asked for a lot, but he may have upside that most of the others don’t and his pedigree suggests the longer they go the better he’ll like it. Whether he has the seasoning or the foundation to worry a proven top class colt like Jackie’s Warrior is at best problematic, but he’s 12-1 on the morning line and we’re going to assume that he wouldn’t been entered in the race unless his trainer thought he belonged.

Essential Quality is unbeaten in two starts and already has a Grade-1 win over this track and distance, having scored impressively in the Breeders’ Futurity-G1 last month with comfortable stalking trip. The son of Tapit is a high-potential type from the B. Cox barn and a strong threat and a “must use.”

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #1

#2 Misty Taste	MSW dropper takes the biggest plunge in racing, even more so because this is the NYB ranks, and it's not like either of those last two were terrible, and she meets nothing here; look out.
#10 Crick	ML favorite is 0-for-11 with five 2nds, for a Dunham barn that is 0-for-18 on the year, so while she's best on figures, clearly you get her MO and what she wants to do; second-best, again.
#4 Love Me Tomorrow	Speedster will be in front and that's enabled her to run big on occasion, but she's very hit or miss too, and at 12-0-3-5 she's another trying to shake a bad reputation; underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	The 2 seems like an absolute no-brainer, especially when viewed in light of the two favorites, who are a combined 0-for-23, as she has started just four times and now takes a huge class drop, so play her aggressively at 5-2 or better, while getting some added value by singling her to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since this looks like a coming-out party.

Aqueduct - Race #5

#7 Yankee Division	FL invader romped over lesser but is actually 2-for-4 here, should be sitting off what looks like plenty of early speed, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#6 Golani Brigade	The chalk will be bet hard for Brown and will be a handful, but the 3rd at the level last time was no faster than the rest, and he may get fried chasing; trying to beat.
#3 Dynamax Prime	Atras claim (27%) goes for a barn that can move them up, and the 3rd against lesser last time came in a fast 25k race, though this is a tough group; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 7, and he really exploded last time, so while this is a rise in class, the risk-reward will be there, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he enters on the upswing, and won't have to improve all that much to double up.

Aqueduct - Race #8

#6 Cafe Society	Pace presser drew off impressively on debut for Shug, which is always noteworthy because he doesn't crank them, and this outside attack post is a huge coup too; a star is born?
#4 Malathaat	Pletcher miss pressed and held sway on debut at odds-on, though the splits that day were extremely slow, she may be in a pace sandwich here, and will be overbet too; not sold on.
#2 American West	Brown runner won a slow MSW on debut, though she did it stalking, so if a pace tussle develops she would be the main beneficiary, though she's got open lengths to find; tread lightly.
Race Summary	The debut of the 6 really tips here hand, as she not only looked sharp, but did it for a barn that usually eases them into the fray, and yet she might be the third-choice here too, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4, as she really does get all the best of it here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 06:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#4 Infinite Reward	Price player steps way up off the romping win with a cheap crew in the debut, but she's worth a look if the 8/1 ML offering holds up.
#3 Unrequited Love	Dropper should appreciate getting out of stakes company, and she has been a reliable type when in her other three starts with lesser.
#5 Liv and Let Liv	She should be able to get the right kind of tracking trip with these from right up on the splits, and she was never threatened in her first start for the barn.
Race Summary	Infinite Reward rolled a soft bunch for $16,000 in the debut, but she did it the right way, earning this hike into allowance company.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#8 Odd Gal	She draws well to show some pace, and she has won her last three tries at distances similar to this one. Should be tough.
#4 Combat Queen	Should be in the mix from the start, and she has the mildest of rating gears if needed. She just missed with similar last out and figures right back.
#1 Fille d'Espirit	Hasn't done much wrong while facing softer groups than this, but she'll have to work out the trip from the inside on the hike.
Race Summary	Odd Gal and Combat Queen can both be tough with these, but the former looks just a touch better and more reliable.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#10 Crying for More	Took a big step forward when trying the dirt with cheaper, and he earned the step back up with that good try. He should get a good spying run from this wide draw.
#8 Jolly Swagman	Tries the dirt again after a couple of improved efforts over the turf, and he'll race with Lasix for the first time in this spot. Late threat.
#2 Ratify	Tactical type doesn't always punch home with a ton of interest, but he's versatile and should be in the mix from the start.
Race Summary	Crying for More is intriguing while stepping back up. He looked like a different horse on the dirt last time out and looks very competitive with these -- 10/1?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 06:59 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dayton Raceway - Race #2

#9 GENERAL SIMBA	Ran into stretch traffic behind duel, closed with a rush for third.
#4 BEACHWOOD WAYNE	Flushed out fave, gapped cover on turn, caught by longshot.
#2 FEEL THE HEAT	Two thirds recently, better post, but 2-73 since 2019.
Race Summary	General Simba lacked running room in early stretch but finished full of pace. He gets negative post switch but Miller sticks on a double call. Play 9-2 and 9-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#3 MOON BRIDGE	Seeks duplicate of latest, switches pilots for series opener.
#8 TOM D BAKER	Plagued by bad posts, could land minor awards at big price.
#1 LEXUS MARKUS	Steady check-getter draws the rail after near miss.
Race Summary	Race Summary: Moon Bridge chased the 1-to-9 favorite through solid fractions and held second in an improved try. Can he do it again? Play 3-1 and 3-8 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #2

#7 MOUNTAIN HIGH	Good fit in here, could hold tactical edge on main contenders.
#4 GRIFFON HANOVER	Gets major post relief, looks like the one to beat.
#2 THESPYWHOLOVEDME	Three seconds in last seven weeks out of town at smaller ovals.
Race Summary	Mountain High raced first over in his last two starts, has solid recent numbers and could revert to front-end tactics in pace-less race. Play a 7-4-ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2020, 07:00 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#2 Top Boss	Was in stakes races on dirt earlier and most recently tired going long on turf; a threat to steal.
#3 Heavenly Blessing	Set the pace and was caught in the closing strides last out; looks like a good fit at this level.
#5 Exchange Day	Held on for third in a sprint at this level and can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary	Top Boss has the class edge and probably will have the energy to dig in late.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#1 Starship Mallomar	Closed to second last time out and has been a late threat in some of her turf races; gets a good pace ahead of her and can close.
#4 Amadora	Drew clear on the turf last out and showed an ability to pass horses, something she hadn't been willing to do much. A similar trip makes her tough here.
#9 Pugilist	Ran a solid second at Monmouth last out and has been in some good spots.
Race Summary	Starship Mallomar has shown an ability to close and can get a ground-saving trip; set up for this one at a good price.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#1 Joe Di Baggio	Got back to good form with a solid second last time; comes out of a fast race and can run a big one from the rail.
#8 Man of Honor	Was second in his last three and has a legit chance to get back to the winners circle; can make a solid move when asked.
#6 Septemberten	Was on or near the lead throughout and held on for a hard-earned win over this strip; tough right back.
Race Summary	Joe Di Baggio is woke with a good effort last time after a few unimpressive starts; he has several good races farther back in his form and can score vs. these.