Friday 11/6/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Picks for Breeders' Cup Friday

November 4, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Breeders’ Cup annually hosts the best Thoroughbreds across all divisions of racing, and the most interesting two days of handicapping for horseplayers. Whether you’re a regular to betting the Breeders’ Cup or dropping by for the elite Friday and Saturday cards at Keeneland, the 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 6

RACE 1 (11:30AM ET) // NYQUIST S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#9 // SAFFA’S DAY (7/2) // 30% WIN
#8 // AWESOME GERRY (6/1) // 17% WIN
#1 // HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7/2) // 13% WIN
#4 // UPSTRIKER (6/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Impressive 2020 Keeneland Fall Meet debut winner Saffa’s Day matches the second-largest win rate (30%) on the Friday card. The 1/ST INDEX stands against 5-2 morning line favorite Quick Tempo.

RACE 2 (12:05PM ET) // SONGBIRD S. // 6 1/2 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#14 // CALIFORNIA LILY (9/2) // 28% WIN
#8 // TAYLOR’S TOURIST (15/1) // 19% WIN
#7 // NOVEL SQUALL (12/1) // 10% WIN
#9 // THE GRASS IS BLUE (4/1) // 7% WIN

Notable: Lukewarm morning line favorite The Grass Is Blue is 4-1, showing this to be a potentially wide-open race. But the 1/ST INDEX is bullish on its top pair, noticing 9-point spreads between the first and second choices, and another 9 to the third choice.

RACE 3 (12:40PM ET) // BRYAN STATION S. // 1 1/8 MILES (TURF)

#7 // SPANISH KINGDOM (15/1) // 18% WIN
#6 // FANCY LIQUOR (4/1) // 16% WIN
#1 // ENFORCEABLE (10/1) // 9% WIN
#14 // BYE BYE MELVIN (8/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: Another 4-1 morning line favorite, this time the 1/ST INDEX puts Fancy Liquor squarely into the win discussion. Spanish Kingdom’s 15-1 morning line price is co-second highest today among top choices following his victory on the Keeneland turf in allowance company.

RACE 4 (1:15PM ET) // MCCONNELL SPRINGS S. // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

#6 // UNIQUE FACTOR (6/1) // 30% WIN
#2 // AMY’S CHALLENGE (4/1) // 19% WIN
#4 // INTO CHOCOLATE (12/1) // 19% WIN
#1 // BYE BYE J (7/2) // 7% WIN

Notable: Unique Factor drops in class after facing graded-stakes company in 3 of her last 4 starts for top national sprint trainer Peter Miller. Her 30% win rate matches the second-highest on today’s card.

RACE 5 (1:50PM ET) // THOROUGHBRED AFTERCARE ALLIANCE S. // 1 5/8 MILES (DIRT)

#7 // SIGNALMAN (12/1) // 32% WIN
#5 // TENFOLD (5/1) // 13% WIN
#9 // MIRINAQUE (ARG) (50/1) // 7% WIN
#2 // FARMINGTON ROAD (15/1) // 7% WIN

Notable: Keeneland specialist Signalman owns the day’s highest 1/ST INDEX win rate at 32% and the biggest spread at 19 points to the second choice. At 12-1 in the morning line, it’s easy to identify this as the day’s best bet, according to the 1/ST INDEX.

RACE 6 (2:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (G2) // 5 1/2 FURLONGS (TURF)

#12 // DIRTY DANGLE (20/1) // 25% WIN
#14 // GOLDEN PAL (8/5) // 16% WIN
#10 // BODENHEIMER (8/1) // 11% WIN
#13 // SECOND OF JULY (8/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: The first of 5 consecutive Breeders’ Cup Championship race kicks off the late pick five. Dirty Dangle is the biggest longshot tabbed on top today by the 1/ST INDEX at 20-1. He changes barns to Mark Casse after a private sale, joining one of Keeneland’s most successful 2-year-old and turf trainers.

RACE 7 (3:10PM ET) // BREEDES’ CUP JUVENILE TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)

#11 // GRETZKY THE GREAT (8/1) // 15% WIN
#6 // MUTASAABEQ (5/1) // 11% WIN
#8 // OUTADORE (8/1) // 9% WIN
#15 // BARRISTER TOM (AE) (30/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX tabs the same jockey-trainer-owner with Gretzky the Great as Dirty Dangle in the preceding Breeders’ Cup championship event. This one’s a tighter call at 15%, matching the smallest rate by a 1/ST INDEX top choice in today’s 5 BC races.

RACE 8 (3:50PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

#1 // SIMPLY RAVISHING (5/2) // 30% WIN
#3 // DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5/2) // 24% WIN
#7 // PRINCESS NOOR (9/5) // 13% WIN
#6 // CRAZY BEAUTIFUL (20/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: The highest win-rate among the 5 Breeders’ Cup championship races Friday belongs to Simply Ravishing at 30%. The local Alcibiades winner and Frizette winner Dayoutoftheoffice strongly separate themselves from what looks to be a competitive group on paper.

RACE 9 (4:30PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (G1) // 1 MILE (TURF)

#3 // ALDA (12/1) // 15% WIN
#11 // ROYAL APPROVAL (10/1) // 11% WIN
#12 // SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR (15/1) // 9% WIN
#4 // PLUM ALI (4/1) // 8% WIN

Notable: A surprising dismissal of unbeaten morning line favorite Aunt Pearl helps to put the 1/ST INDEX on a series of long prices. Alda continues a theme of Woodbine-based runners today in BC races that are well-supported by the algorithms. We’ll tab how that plays out in prior races.

RACE 10 (5:15PM ET) // BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE (G1) // 1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

#5 // ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4/1) // 16% WIN
#8 // CLASSIER (12/1) // 12% WIN
#7 // JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7/5) // 10% WIN
#11 // NEXT (15/1) // 10% WIN

Notable: Unbeaten morning line favorite Jackie’s Warrior gets snubbed by the algorithm in his first attempt around 2 turns. If he’s vulnerable, local stakes winner Essential Quality becomes the most logical next choice. Lightly raced Classier as the second choice is an interesting evaluation at double-digit odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

November 4, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: Keeneland Friday Early Pk5 Play

Let’s take a week off from the Stronach 5 and take a look at Friday’s early Pk5 at Keeneland, which has a 500k guaranteed pool to kick off Breeders’ Cup Weekend in Lexington.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***


Race 1 Kee (11:30 AM ET) – 125k Nyquist for 2yos at 6 ½ furlongs

We kick off what looks like an extremely tough sequence with a 2yo dash that has plenty of speed, so the stalking style of Bel MSW winner #1 HIGHLY MOTIVATED (7-2) should play well if he can work out a trip from the rail for the potent Brown-Klaravich combo. Cutting back and getting out of G1 company should help #4 UPSTRIKER (6-1), who was sharp pressing and drawing off on debut two-back on debut at Ellis. An outside attack post helps #9 SAFFIA’S DAY (7-2), who impressed dueling early and drawing off late on debut, over the track as well.

Pk5 A horses: 1,4,9 (listed in order of preference)

The class test comes for #8 AWESOME GERRY (6-1), but he’s looked good stalking and winning both starts in South Florida, and should trip out here. Maybe I’m just being stubborn, but I’ll make #6 QUICK TEMPO (5-2) prove that very fast romp last time—at Parx no less—wasn’t a fluke, especially since he won’t clear off on the lead like he did last time.

Pk5 B horses: 8,6

Potential B add-ins: #5 Sir Wellington (20-1), #2 Roderick (10-1)


Race 2 Kee – 125k Songbird for 2yo fillies at 6 ½ furlongs

The sister race to the opener also looks like it could be energetic early, which means #11 FARSIGHTED (5-1) might be able to get first run, and if she can double up on her MSW win last time, she’ll have a huge say. If things fall apart then Brown could be in line for a double with #9 THE GRASS IS BLUE (4-1), who moved way up off the private purchase last time, though I’m not sold on her quality just yet. She’ll have to earn it from the paring lot, but #14 CALIFORNIA LILY (9-2) was awesome winning on debut on the Tapeta at WO after dueling early and drawing off late, and she’s certainly bred for the main track as well. Lastly, I’ll toss in a price player in #4 THINKING (15-1), who is slow on paper but is also improving for Motion, and the aggressive pace will suit her too.

Pk5 A horses: 11,9,14,4

If there one horse who might be able to see out all the speed I’m hoping it’s #6 JOY’S ROCKET (9-2), who comes out of the G1 Frizette and cuts back, though it still won’t be easy, hence the supporting actress spot.

Pk5 B horses: 6

Potential B add-ins: #2 Off We Go (10-1)


Race 3 Kee – 150k Bryan Station 3yos at 1 1/8 miles (turf)

Another toughie, with a very non-descript field where several look the same on paper. I’m intrigued by #3 TAISHAN (12-1), who made his turf debut in the G2 American Turf at CD and was a fast-closing 2nd, and now gets an extra half-furlong to work with. There’s no doubt #2 NO WORD (5-1) hits hard from on or just off the pace, and the cutback from his 2nd in the G1 Belmont Derby probably helps too. If I like Taishan I have to like #6 FANCY LIQUOR (4-1), who beat him at CD and fires every time, though his margin for error, at an underlaid price, is a slim one.

Pk5 A horses: 3,2,6

The cutback out of the Belmont Derby figures to work for #5 PIXELATE (8-1) as well, but he’s a little slower on figures than the trio above, so he’ll have to improve to win. I have no idea what to make of #9 ORDER OF AUSTRAILIA (6-1), and he may well have simply taken an empty stall on the plane from Ireland with his classier stablemates, but it’s Coolmore, O’Brien, and Moore, and Lasix was added here too, and if you toss the soft ground no-show last time, there’s some strong form here to work with.

Pk5 B horses: 5,9

Potential B add-ins: #11 Mo Ready (8-1), #14 Bye Bye Melvin (8-1), #13 Don Juan Kitten (6-1)


Race 4 Kee – 150k McConnell Springs for 3upfm at 6 furlongs

With a trip note on #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2), and field I really don’t like, I’ll single her, single I thought the Sar run two-back was really sharp, and she was clearly in too tough in the G2 last time. Her other asset is her tactical speed, as there’s not a lot of it in here and she should trip out nicely from a good attack post.

Pk5 A horses: 7

Clearly the class is #8 WILDWOOD’S BEAUT (9-2), who was in a pair of tough G1’s and wasn’t embarrassed, then didn’t like the Polytrack last time, so she’s got a big chance of bouncing back. Let’s use #6 UNIQUE FACTOR (6-1) too, since she has some class to her as well, and will like the drop.

Pk5 B horses: 8,6 (Please note, to keep the backup ticket down, I’ll be singling #13 Cupid’s Claws in R5)

Potential B add-ins: NONE


Race 5 Kee – 200k G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance for 3up at 1 5/8 miles

What a huge effort off the claim from #13 CUPID’S CLAWS (5-1), who aired in the G3 Tokyo City at SA, drew well here, and has the tactical speed to be involved throughout and get first run too. I’ll take the speed of #8 RY’S THE GUY (4-1), who just romped going 1 ½ miles at CD and may clear here. It looks like #5 TENFOLD (5-1) is the best stalker/closer, and that fast 4th in the G3 Pimlico Special would work here, so by using him I have a nice bookend with the top-2.

Pk5 A horses: 13,8,5

Anyone else seems like a reach to me, and it would be the old “Use one or use them all,” so I’ll call it a day on the top line.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #6 You’re to Blame (8-1), #12 Plus Que Parfait (8-1), #3 Rocketry (12-1)


The tickets:

Main Ticket: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $54
Leg 1 B Backup: 8,6 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 6 with 3,2,6 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $13.50
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 5,9 with 7 with 13,8,5 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,4,9 with 11,9,14,4 with 3,2,6 with 8,6 with 13 = $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Updated Workout Analysis for Breeders' Cup

November 5, 2020

MICHELLE YU’S NOTEBOOK

Juvenile Turf Sprint

GOLDEN PAL and AFTER FIVE: Oct. 31 on a soggy turf in company together, Golden Pal was full of run early and late, skipping over the surface and geared down to let his Wesley Ward stablemate stay in touch. After Five was green and a little erratic. He finally found a good stride late, but was no match for mate despite a tap on the shoulder.

Juvenile Fillies

DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE: Starts a little slow Oct. 30, but picks it up well, finishing strong with nice extension under an ask, looking very comfortable in the mud.

PRINCESS NOOR: Oct. 30 worked outside of a mate in her usual strangle-hold. Comes wide off the turn and hangs a teeny bit until rider says ‘go.’ Once unleashed, opens up 5 in a matter of strides.

Distaff

SWISS SKYDIVER: Ears up Oct. 31 to begin, shows lovely stride extension and acceleration in the turn. Finishes strong and in hand with reserve and continues on the gallop-out.

MONOMOY GIRL: In company Oct. 31, appearing to want to do more the whole time and waiting for a cue. Snugly held, she easily glides past rival and never lets him by until forced to pull up. Aching to be let run, she even kicks up her heels after settled back to a canter.

CE CE: Couldn't look much better early in an Oct. 30 solo spin with her ears up. Rider asking a little late, but finishing with interest and a good gallop-out.

Millie Ball’s Notebook

Juvenile

CLASSIER: Will be running back in 2 weeks off his debut win, which is not usually Baffert's M.O. (although, Bob won with 5 of the 10 horses he ran this past year on that turn around, suggesting he should consider doing it more often!). He obviously considers his colt talented enough to give him a shot and it is the last chance at a Grade 1 for 2-year-old colts/geldings this year. While Classier habitually gets warm prior to his works and race, he did look more focused working by himself on Nov 1. Sometimes a race will do that. While being given an easy half-mile breeze, almost to the point of being geared down approaching the wire, it stuck me how physically strong and mature he looks for a 2-year-old, even this late in the year. He weighed 1177 pounds the day he broke his maiden; so looks aren't deceiving. There was something about the way Classier won his debut that reminded me of the way American Pharoah won the '14 Del Mar Futurity - both showed speed and carried it. It is a lot to ask of such a lightly raced juvenile, but why not ask the question?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eddie Olczyk's Breeders' Cup Playbook

November 5, 2020

FRIDAY BANKROLL BUILDER

Race 4 // McConnell Springs Stakes // 1:15 pm ET

#7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE (9-2 morning line) is my key, likely to get a great set-up after chasing Filly & Mare Sprint contender Come Dancing at Saratoga. She should sit just behind the speed for a jockey-trainer combination you have to consider. I’d be happy at a price around 5-1.

Win: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE
Exacta Box: #7 UNHOLY ALLIANCE, #6 UNIQUE FACTOR, #9 ROYAL CHARLOTTE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White's 2020 Breeders' Cup Picks

November 4, 2020 | By Jon White

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF SPRINT (FRIDAY)

1. GOLDEN PAL (8-5 on the morning line): Believe he wins despite post 14; Ward praises him
2. BODENHEIMER (8-1): Lone loss by WA-bred came on soft ground
3. AFTER FIVE (6-1): Maiden by The Factor could be a factor

Nice-price danger: COUNTRY FINAL (15-1): Interesting at 15-1 ML, especially with Rosario

Note: Despite drawing post 14, Golden Pal is my most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. Yes, I would like him much better if he had not drawn the outside post. But I do still see him flexing his muscles vs. these juveniles. Trainer Wesley Ward has raved about Golden Pal for months.

I think this is a difficult Breeders’ Cup to come up with a most probable winner. This is the least confidence I’ve ever had in picking a most probable Breeders’ Cup winner.

Many understandably would choose Jackie’s Warrior in the Juvenile as the most probable winner at this year’s Breeders’ Cup. But in addition to my decision to not make Jackie’s Warrior my most probable Breeders’ Cup winner, I am not even picking him to win his race.

My most probable winner during the Nov. 6-7 racing at Keeneland actually is Nashville (4-5 morning line) in Saturday’s first race, the Perryville Stakes. But in terms of the 14 Breeders’ Cup events, Golden Pal is my choice as this year’s most probable winner at Keeneland this Friday and Saturday.

My most probable Breeders’ Cup winner has won in 12 of the 16 last years. These are my most probable Breeders’ Cup winners going back to 2004:

2019 Midnight Bisou (finished second)
2018 Newspaperofrecord in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (won)
2017 Bolt d’Oro in the Juvenile (finished third)
2016 Dortmund in the Dirt Mile (finished fourth)
2015 Songbird in the Juvenile Fillies (won)
2014 Goldencents in the Dirt Mile (won)
2013 Wise Dan in the Mile (won)
2012 Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint (won)
2011 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2010 Goldikova in the Mile (won)
2009 Zenyatta in the Classic (won)
2008 Zenyatta in the Ladies’ Classic (won)
2007 Midnight Lute in the Sprint (won)
2006 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)
2005 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (finished second)
2004 Ouija Board in the Filly & Mare Turf (won)

$1 MILLION JUVENILE TURF (FRIDAY)

1. CADILLAC (6-1): Euro is 2 for 2 when racing around a turn
2. GRETZKY THE GREAT (8-1): Achieved hat trick with G1 Summer victory
3. BATTLEGROUND (6-1): O’Brien has 4 BCJT wins; dam BC Turf winner

Nice-price danger: NEW MANDATE (12-1): Threat with remarkable Dettori as pilot

$2 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES (FRIDAY)

1. PRINCESS NOOR (9-5): Yet to be tested; must improve soft figs
2. DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (5-2): Frizette triumph yielded best Beyer of these
3. SIMPLY RAVISHING (5-2): Simply a major player here off Alcibiades

Nice-price danger: VEQUIST (8-1): Was 9-10 favorite when 2nd in Frizette

$1 MILLION JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (FRIDAY)

1. CAMPANELLE (4-1): Victorious in U.S., England and France
2. PLUM ALI (4-1): Undefeated in 3 starts; figs are improving
2. AUNT PEARL (3-1): Won G2 Jessamine smartly on Keeneland turf

Nice-price danger: MADONE (10-1): Undefeated stakes winner from SoCal

$2 MILLION JUVENILE (FRIDAY)

1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY (4-1): Dandy G1 victory going 2 turns at Keeneland
2. JACKIE’S WARRIOR (7-5): Favorite has spotless record; now tries 2 turns
3. REINVESTMENT RISK (9-2): Third try the charm vs. Jackie’s Warrior?

Nice-price danger: SITTIN ON GO (12-1): Big late kick to win G3 Iroquois going away

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

My freebie for Friday comes out west as the Spartans and the Aztecs play their Mountain West meeting Under the posted price.

Both teams have a pair of games behind them and both teams sport identical 1-1 Over/Under marks with both school's season openers holding Under and both landing Over on Halloween.

I see this one playing out to be a game that lands just Under the total based on recent series trends in this rivalry.

Last year saw a 27-17 final score in favor of San Diego State in a game that easily landed Under the posted price. That Under moved the series numbers to 2 in a row Low and 5 of the last 6 Under the total now since the 2014 campaign.

The Aztecs come into this game with 9 straight games since last season of holding their opponents to 17 points or less, it's a streak that started with last year's meeting against the Spartans. The Under is 7-2 in those last 9 games played and I like the Under to come through once again tonight.

4* SAN JOSE STATE-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Nov 06 '20, 12:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Viborg FF vs FC Fredericia
Play on: Viborg FF +143 at Draft Kings

1* Free Sharp Play on Viborg FF +143

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Nov 06 '20, 12:30 PM in 3h
Soccer | Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Play on: UNDER 2½ -115

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Rotation #200002 Friday Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove Albion vs Burnley @ 12:30 PM ET - Short and sweet here. Each club is struggling and have combined for just one win this season. That should lead to a tight battle here with goals at a premium. Burnley views this as a very winnable match even though they are on enemy pitch. As for Brighton & Hove, they are known for playing tough defense in front of their own goal and are likely to be tough to score on. This is particularly true since Burnley has totaled only 3 goals in 6 matches on the season! Brighton has only scored 4 goals in 3 home matches this season! A 1-0 game or 1-1 draw would not be a surprise here for sure. Perhaps a 2-0 game at most. That should be the end result here though as this a fixture that struggles to get to a pair of goals. Two clubs struggling badly for wins sets up a fierce low-scoring battle here. Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Brighton & Hove

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Nov 06 '20, 2:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Livingston vs Ross County FC
Play on: Ross County FC +255 at Bovada

1* Free Pick on Ross County FC +255

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports

Nov 06 '20, 2:45 PM in 5h
Soccer | Udinese vs Sassuolo Calcio
Play on: Sassuolo Calcio +103 at pinnacle

Sassuolo +103
The free soccer play takes place on Friday in Italy.
Udinese 1
Sassuolo 2
Udinese is #19 in the league with -5 goal difference while the home team is #2 with a +9 goal difference. Sassuolo is 4-0-1 in their last 5 matches.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Nov 06 '20, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Salernitana vs SPAL
Play on: Draw +210 at pinnacle

** Friday Comp Play **
The Friday Serie B Comp Play for Friday is for a Draw at +210 in the Salemitana at SPAL Match at 3:00 eastern. SPAL is ranked 7th in the table and has been very inconsistent. Here at home they have just 3 wins in 11 matches along with 5 losses and 3 draws. Salemitana is 4th 4th in the table with 11 wins, 8 losses and 5 draws. They will be in this game but we cant see them winning. The value is really that both these teams wind up even in full time. Play this match to a draw. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (200001) Burnley FC at (200002) Brighton & Hove Albion

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: November 6, 2020 12PM EST

Play: Brighton & Hove Albion -115

Brighton doesn’t have a win at home on the season, earning its first point last time out through a disappointing draw against a weak West Brom side after conceding in the 83rd minute. The Seagulls have fallen to Chelsea and Manchester United, so this is another manageable task against a Burnley team that arrives in last place, coming in with one point on one draw over its first six matches. Only West Brom has a worse goal differential then Burnley’s minus-9, and a well-rested Brighton squad should be able to make that deficit even uglier.

Brighton has been terrible at home, failing to win at Falmer Stadium over its last seven Premier League matches, last winning on June 20 against Arsenal and losing five games outright with only two draws. The Seagulls have been outscored 18-5, but should be able to clamp down on a Burnley attack that has been blanked four times and has scored a single goal in six matches since Sept. 26. It is getting defender Ben Mee back and will have Phil Bardsley available after a bout with COVID-19, so there’s likely to be some rust to work off in the back. Another defender, Erik Pieters, remains out, while midfielders Johann Burg Gudmundsson and Jack Cork will also likely be unavailable. This is gift-wrapped for a talented Brighton & Hove Albion to get back on track and I think they’ll take advantage in earning all three points. Ride Brighton (-115, Westgate) on the 3-way money line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305909) Khimki M. at (305910) Fenerbahce Ulker
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 6, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Khimki M. +5.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305911) Real Madrid at (305912) Zalgiris Kaunas
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 6, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Zalgiris Kaunas +5.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hakeem Profit

Event: (305915) CSKA Moscow at (305916) Panathinaikos
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 6, 2020 2PM EST
Play: CSKA Moscow -6.0 (-110)