Saturday 11/14/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (155) Miami Florida at (156) Virginia Tech
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Miami Florida +2.5 (-110)
Take Miami-FL (#155)
Miami has already proven their mettle in hostile road environments, blowing out Louisville and knocking off NC State in a wild shootout last week. Head coach Manny Diaz knows that his team likely needs to win out for a chance to play in the ACC title game. His quote: “Every week, we look where the league is and when we’re done talking about it we don’t talk about it again for the rest of the week and everything goes into ‘beat Virginia Tech.’ Winning on the road in this league will be enough for us to focus on.” That’s exactly the mentality I’m looking for at this stage of the campaign.
Miami is in revenge for a bad home loss to the Hokies as two TD favorites last year, but they did win in Blacksburg on their last visit, a 38-14 blowout. Virginia Tech lost to Liberty last week because their defense is a sieve; unable to stop the run or the pass on any consistent basis. That’s bad news for any defense against D’Eriq King and the potent Hurricanes attack, especially with nice weather expected on Saturday – sunny with highs in the 50’s. Wrong team favored here! Take Miami.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Croatia at Sweden
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 2PM EST
Play: Sweden (+175)
UEFA Nations League A
TAKE SWEDEN TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 3% to +140, you can also play this much safer at take Sweden +0 to protect against the draw

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (147) Notre Dame at (148) Boston College
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Boston College +13.5 (-110)
148 Notre Dame at Boston College
Major sandwich game for the visitor here after a storm the field contest knocking off the previous #1 team in the country Clemson. The Irish have North Carolina on deck. Not only is the emotional victory taking away focus, but with the fans storming the field during this Covid-19 time, the Irish have much more on their minds. After blowing out BC the last two meetings by 33 and 29 points, we can't see this team having any type of focus here.
Boston College has already faced both North Carolina and Clemson, losing by only 4 and 6 points in the process. Eagles signal caller Phil Jurkovec has been very good with a 15 to 4 TD to INT ratio, with a solid 140.2 quarterback rating. Look for BC to finally play to their ability against Notre Dame.
PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Event: (147) Notre Dame at (148) Boston College
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Boston College +13.5 (-110)
-Notre Dame is off their upset win over Clemson, and have North Carolina on deck; bad spot
-Boston College has hung tough against both Clemson and North Carolina; sticky underdog
-Eagles defense allows 5.2 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.9 yards per play
Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (147) Notre Dame at (148) Boston College
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 3PM EST
Play: Boston College +13.5 (-110)
Notre Dame arrives off a historic 47-40 double-overtime win over Clemson and is primed for a letdown in Chestnut Hill. The Fighting Irish benefitted from three turnovers, including a scoop-and-score touchdown. Notre Dame gave up a program high 426 passing yards to a backup quarterback and finished the game with a win expectancy rate of just 42%.
First-year head coach Jeff Hafley is doing an exceptional job with Boston College and the Eagles are 17-7-1 ATS as underdogs over the last four-plus seasons, including 8-0 ATS as home underdogs of fifteen or fewer points. I also like the fact that Boston College is a near-perfect 9-1-1 ATS in its last eleven games as a home underdog with five outright upsets.
Grab the points with the live home underdog and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (197) Baylor at (198) Texas Tech
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Baylor +1.0 (-110)
Battle of two struggling Big 12 teams, but I'm going to trust my numbers that indicate Baylor is the better team. I actually make the Bears -5 here, which indicates how little my power ratings think of Texas Tech. Both teams battled hard last week, with Baylor losing a competitive matchup at Iowa State while Texas Tech hung in against TCU but eventually lost by double digits. Baylor has been unable to get anything from the ground game, but if they can't run a little on the Red Raiders, they simply can't run as Tech is terrible vs. the run. This is mainly a trust the numbers game for me where I'm getting the better team at a good number. Baylor to get the win and cover.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (197) Baylor at (198) Texas Tech
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Total Under 57.5 (-110)
PLAYABLE at 56 or better

BET SIZE --> 3%

NOTE: This play was one I released to subscribers.

Baylor is averaging 22.8 points per game against teams not named Kansas. Baylor's offense averages just 1.7 points per drive (#98 in the nation) and goes three-and-out on 41.5% of its possessions (#108). Texas Tech is averaging 28.7 points in conference games. The Red Raiders offense is 73rd in points per drive and 100th in three-and-out rate. Baylor's defense is good. Texas Tech's defense is not, but I'm not so sure Baylor's weak offense can take advantage. The icing on the cake is a strong wind in excess of 20 mph, which will impact the passing and kicking games.
PLAY UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (208221) Atletico MG at (208222) Corinthians
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 5PM EST
Play: Corinthians +0.5 (-120)
PLAY: CORINTHIANS +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (157) Temple at (158) Central Florida
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 14, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Central Florida -24.0 (-112)
The UCF Knights come off a bye week and will be looking to show off what they were able to polish up after foolish mistakes like unforced penalties and careless missed assignments cost them dearly in a season where they would ideally be capitalizing on the chaos the pandemic has brought to be right in the middle of the national title picture.
Instead, UCF's season highlight will be to play spoiler against Cincinnati next week. They'll warm up against a depleted Temple squad that is hoping to get QB Michael Russo back after he's missed two weeks with a shoulder injury. The Owls have been depleted by COVID-19 contact tracing and wore down completely after a strong start against SMU last week. Considering how quickly the Knights execute as they try and operate the fastest offense in college football, it wouldn't be surprising to see Temple gas out down the stretch on what is set to be a humid Orlando evening. Dillon Gabriel should put up big numbers and we'll likely see the home team win every quarter in coasting to cover this spread. Ride the big number and back the UCF Knights.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Nov 14 '20, 1:00 PM in 52m
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Rutgers
Play on: OVER 52 -107

PICK - Illinois/Rutgers OVER 52
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 168
I really want lay the points with Rutgers in this game, but I wouldn't trust either of these teams laying a touchdown with what I've seen on the defensive side of the ball. I would much rather take my chances here with the OVER 52, as I think this game is going to feature a little more offense than what people might be expecting.
I get it. Illinois' offense is not very good. Nothing speaks more to that than the mere 14-points they were able to put up against an awful Minnesota defense last week. However, they could be getting a big upgrade at QB. Coran Taylor has filled in for starter Brandon Peters (out with Covid). He was decent against Purdue, but awful against Minnesota.
Key here is I don't think he plays. Red-shirt freshman, Isaiah williams, who was the #3 ranked QB in his high school class two years ago, will be cleared to play after being on the Covid list. Williams was listed No. 2 on the depth chart coming into the year, so if he's healthy you have to think he goes.
Either way the Illinois offense will be facing another bad defense in Rutgers. One that has had a horrible time against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 74.2% of their attempts with an average of 290 passing yards and 9 yards/attempt.
Think those secondary numbers are bad? Illinois's defensive backfield is even worse. The Illini are allowing opposing QBs to complete 79.5% for 285 yards/game and 10.3 yards/attempt.
Both teams should have big plays in the passing game and with Illinois allowing 39.0 ppg and Rutgers giving up 37.7 ppg, it's not crazy that both teams could score well into the 30's. Give me the OVER 52!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Nov 14 '20, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Notre Dame vs Boston College
Play on: Boston College +14 -110 at jazz

148 Notre Dame at Boston College
Major sandwich game for the visitor here after a storm the field contest knocking off the previous #1 team in the country Clemson. The Irish have North Carolina on deck. Not only is the emotional victory taking away focus, but with the fans storming the field during this Covid-19 time, the Irish have much more on their minds. After blowing out BC the last two meetings by 33 and 29 points, we can't see this team having any type of focus here.
Boston College has already faced both North Carolina and Clemson, losing by only 4 and 6 points in the process. Eagles signal caller Phil Jurkovec has been very good with a 15 to 4 TD to INT ratio, with a solid 140.2 quarterback rating. Look for BC to finally play to their ability against Notre Dame.
PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Nov 14 '20, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Colorado vs Stanford
Play on: Stanford -7 -110 at William Hill

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Stanford -7
The Stanford Cardinal are big bounce-back candidates in 2020. They had won at least eight games in each of the previous eight seasons under head coach David Shaw. But they fell to 4-8 last season due to injuries and attrition. Now they go from having just nine returning starters last year all the way up to 16 returning starters this year and now they’re a veteran team.
Stanford boasts one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12 in Davis Mills. He completed 65.6% of his passes last year after taking over for KJ Costello. He was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school. And the Cardinal should get back to running the football this season with four returning starters along the offensive line and top recruit Austin Jones in the backfield. The defense will also be a lot better after an aberration year in which they gave up 29.8 points per game last season.
Stanford caught a bad break in their season opening 35-14 loss to Oregon. QB Davis Mills and one of his top receivers in Connor Wedington were announced out due to Covid-19 protocols just before the game. But there’s a good chance the Cardinal get both back this week as it sounds like they were false positives. Either way, I like Stanford as a 7-point home favorite here, and it would be an added bonus if both play.
The Cardinal played better than the final score would indicate against Oregon without Mills, too. They went 0-for-4 on field goal attempts and had two other drives stall in Oregon territory. I think that 21-point loss has the Cardinal undervalued this week, while Colorado’s upset win over UCLA last week has the Buffaloes overvalued.
This is a Colorado team going through their third different head coach in three years. Karl Dorrell is the new head coach here and the Buffaloes didn’t have a single spring practice. Their win over UCLA was surprising, but keep in mind the Bruins lost the turnover battle 4-0 in that game, which proved to be the difference. Chip Kelly just isn’t having any success at UCLA, and the Bruins were missing a lot of players they expected to have coming into the season.
The Buffaloes are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games, losing by an average of 30.0 points per game. We are getting the Cardinal at a great value as only 7-point home favorites here over Colorado. Bet Stanford Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Nov 14 '20, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Texas State vs Georgia Southern
Play on: Georgia Southern -10 -105 at pinnacle

This Saturday will be your best opportunity to ensure yourself a winning football campaign as I have the most explosive college football card I have seen in years. I have my coveted, 100% EARLY INFO MOVE, 83% NO LIMIT, 71% TOUCHDOWN PLAY, 2-0 GRIDIRON GAME, and my AAC GAME OF THE MONTH. Follow me and YOU WILL CRUSH YOUR BOOK.
Saturday’s Free Winner: Georgia Southern.
Game 152.
12:30 pm pst.
Sports betting is not a popularity contest, folks. As long as you’re making money, it doesn’t matter if it’s with Georgia, Georgia Tech, or even Georgia Southern. This is a very solid football team especially when playing host at Allen E. Paulson Stadium. A site where they have won eight consecutive games at SU, going 6-2 ATS. This includes a perfect. 4-0 SU and ATS this year. The matchups heavily favor the Eagles here. They own the nation’s 9th ranked rushing offense, and will absolutely shred a Bobcats “D”, that is a lowly, 88th vs. the run. This is defense that has been a doormat all season long, getting plowed for over 36.0 PPG. The Eagles dual-threat quarterback, Shai Werts (739 yards passing and five touchdowns in the air, 474 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground) and running back, J.D. King (625 yards rushing and five touchdowns on the ground) will move the chains easily and score at will. Even a change at quarterback last week couldn’t help Texas State from extending their losing streak to six straight. And it won’t matter here as GSU’s uncharitable defense allows just 19.1 PPG (19th). The Bobcats are 3-7 ATS the last 10 as a road ‘dog. The Eagles are 5-2 ATS the last seven as a home fav, 6-1 ATS the last seven at home vs. a team with a losing road record, and 5-2 ATS the last seven in November. Take Georgia Southern. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Nov 14 '20, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Hawaii vs San Diego State
Play on: UNDER 52½ -110

FREE PLAY on Hawaii/San Diego State under 52½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Nov 14 '20, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Baylor vs Texas Tech
Play on: Texas Tech +2 -104 at pinnacle

My free play is on Texas Tech at 4:00 ET.
Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. The 2020 CFB season has had its challenges for all teams but little has gone right for the Bears. Baylor had its first two games postponed due to COVID but finally got to play on Sep 26, routing Kansas 47-14. The Jayhawks are 0-7 and the Bears are hoping that game will not be the 'highlight' of their season. However, so far it has been, as Baylor enters this contest on a FOUR-game losing streak. Matt Wells had a six-year run at Utah St, going 44-34 overall but he did lead the Aggies to a bowl berth in FIVE of those six seasons. He didn't coach the Aggies in the 2018 New Mexico Bowl, as he was hired by Texas Tech as head football coach on November 29, 2018. Wells' first season was unsuccessful (4-8) and so far in 2020, with just three games left on its schedule, Texas Tech is just 1-5. Something's gotta give here.
Baylor did almost everything right last Saturday vs Iowa St, passing for more yards than the Cyclones (295-164), out gaining them in total yards (366-362) and forced four turnovers but squandered a 24-10 third-quarter lead in a 38-31 loss to Iowa St (currently ranked No. 17 and atop the Big 12 at 5-1). QB Brewer has not played as well as last season (modest 1,125 yards passing with 11 TDs and five INTs) and he sure hasn't been helped by a running game averaging a woeful 88.0 YPG on 2.8 YPC. Then there is Baylor's defense, which allowed 19.8 PPG in 2019 but is allowing 27.8 PPG.
The Red Raiders have struggled to get in sync on offense and stay there all season. Henry Colombi has taken over at QB for Alex Bowman and in three starts has done some things well but Matt Wells wants to see more from the graduate transfer. "We need him to be the reason we're having some success," Wells said. "In our offense, the quarterback has to be more consistent than he has been the last two weeks." Colombi completed 22 of 28 (78.6%) for 169 yards with one TD and zero INTs in his first start, leading Texas Tech to its lone win of the season, 34-27 over West Va at home (Oct 24). However, he's completed just 55.0% with four TDs and three INTs in a 62-28 loss to Oklahoma and last week's 34-18 loss to TCU. In fact, the Horned sacked him five times in the first half and although he settled in and passed for 234 yards, most of that came on two long pass plays (60 yards to Ja'Lynn Polk, 57 to Erik Ezukanma) that came after TCU built 14- and then 17-point leads. Speaking of defenses, Tech's unit is allowing 46.8 PPG, almost three TDs per game more than Baylor's.
That said, the Bears come to Lubbock with no running game (see above) and making matters worse, leading rusher Craig Williams has been lost for the season. Texas was able to beat a solid West Va team here at home (see above) and this game, plus the team's season finale at home vs Kansas on Dec 5 are winnable ones. A Nov 24 visit to Stillwater to face No. 14 Oklahoma St, is not. I'm taking the home team.
Good luck...Larry