Thursday 11/19/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

321ARIZONA -322 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 54-24 ATS (27.6 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 11

Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle (6-3)
— Arizona scored 30+ points in last five games, winning four of them.
— Cardinals won three of four road games; this is their first road tilt since Week 6.
— Redbirds are 6-2-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 1-0 TY.
— Cardinals are running ball for 203.8 yards/game in last four games.
— Arizona trailed at halftime in six of its nine games.

— Seattle lost three of last four games, after a 5-0 start.
— Last week (one TD) was first time Seahawks didn’t score at least four TD’s in a game.
— Seattle is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year.
— Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of nine games; they scored 34-34-16 in losses.
— Seven of their nine games went over the total.
— Seahawks are minus-6 in turnovers (1-7) their last two games.

— Arizona (+3.5) beat Seattle 37-34 in OT in Week 7, after trailing 27-17 at halftime; both teams had 500+ yards of total offense.
— Cardinals won four of last five visits here, with lone loss 27-24 two years ago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 19 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all the matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 19

ARIZONA at SEATTLE
Rematch of Arizona's 40-34 OT win, a rare home win in the series.
Arizona has covered the spread in five straight games when playing in Seattle.
Road team is 9-2-1 over last 12 meetings.
Kliff Kingsbury is 9-2-1 vs. spread when playing on the road since last year.
Seattle has gone OVER in seven of its last 10 games

Tech Edge: Cardinals and slight to OVER based on series and point total trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Week 11 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The funny thing about streaks in betting, is that if I told you a football team was on a 7-0 against the spread run in a specific spot, plenty of bettors would be more inclined to make a play on that team. But if I told you a specific individual bettor that was on a 7-0 ATS run, the perspective would flip to looking to fade with losses likely coming.

Why is that?

Probably best to leave that question unanswered for now, as it's been a 7-0 ATS run for these prime-time plays I've been putting up, dating back to the Tampa/New York Giants game on MNF.

And yet I know there is going to be a loss or two coming soon, and with the great games we've got on tap for TNF, SNF, and MNF in Week 11, I'd take the 'no' on me sweeping a third straight week.

Probably something to keep in mind the next time you see so many streaks getting mentioned everywhere (congrats to QB Kirk Cousins for snapping that 0-9 streak on MNF by the way).

Week 11 begins with this Arizona-Seattle rematch, and both teams are coming off some interesting performances a week ago.

Arizona walked it off thanks to a wild Hail Mary play, while quarterback Russell Wilson has a game where his best Superman cape is in the wash and all that Seattle love from a month ago is just a distant memory right now.

In case you were sleeping in Week 10 of the NFL, the highlight "Murray Magic" currently stands as the top play of the 2020 regular season so far.

The Seahawks may be the team that “needs” this win more on Thursday night with how they've looked the past two weeks, but nothing has really changed with this team.

They've got a defense that's in rough shape, and an offense that still converts far too few 3rd downs (39% ranked 26th in NFL) that's run by one of the MVP front-runners. Wilson has an off day and all those flaws get magnified like they did vs the Rams last week.

Can they correct them on a short week against a division rival they know they probably should have beat in the first meeting, and one that's riding high off such an improbable win.

Betting Resources

Week 11 Matchup: NFC West
Venue: CenturyLink Field
Location: Seattle, Washington
Date: Thursday, Nov. 19, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

The Cardinals outlasted the Seahawks, 37-34 in overtime back in Week 7. (AP)

Cardinals-Seahawks Betting Odds

Spread: Seattle -3
Money-Line: Seattle -170, Arizona +150
Total: 57.5

2020 Betting Stats

Arizona

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Road: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 0-4 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 23.3 (Rank 9)
Offense YPG: 425.4 (Rank 1)
Defense YPG: 370.0 (Rank 18)

Seattle

Overall: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U
Home: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 32.2 (Rank 1)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 28)
Offense YPG: 405.9 (Rank 3)
Defense YPG: 448.3 (Rank 32)

Handicapping the Total

If you've read pieces I've done in the past on games that were division rematches, you'll know that looking at flipping the results on both the side and total is a place I'll often start. Looking at taking the Seattle side will come a little further down, but in terms of the total, it appears as though the popularity of sharing that opinion is undecided.

Because of the combination of having a brutal defense and Russell Wilson as their QB, Seattle games are always going to get a lot of 'over' respect from the outset when a number comes out.

They've been hit hard to the 'over' early on in past weeks, and a 6-3 O/U record overall for the Seahawks is not ever going to be a deterrent from sticking to that plan.

Thanks to the walk-off win vs Buffalo, Arizona extended their streak of scoring at least 30 points to five straight games, the last three of which have cashed 'over' tickets. The Cardinals scored a TD in every quarter of that first meeting with Seattle, so thinking they'll be able to possibly do the same this time around isn't far fetched at all.

But then you get a total of 57.5 (currently) where a lot of things still have to go right for significant stretches of time for NFL teams. Yes, the first game finished with 71 points, but both defenses were able to make significant adjustments coming out of halftime, with only total points scored in the 3rd and 4th quarters; 10 of which came by Arizona in the final 2.5 minutes.

If that's the type of game we see from them in this rematch – one where it's going to feel like a bit more is at stake within the division etc – you might not get an explosive 30 minute stretch to make up for the points you'd need if a 24-point half was duplicated.

The short week of prep isn't as big of a negative as it can be for other teams on TNF here because both sides have the same season self-scouting film they can use to breakdown and recall since it was just a few weeks ago. What worked and what didn't should click back into place for both teams relatively quickly on Thursday, as these defenses look much better than they have the past two weeks.

It's an 'under' or nothing for the total in the end.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 25, 2020 - Arizona 37 vs. Seattle 34, Cardinals +3.5, Over 55.5
Dec. 22, 2019 - Arizona 27 at Seattle 13, Cardinals +8, Under 51
Sep. 29, 2019 - Seattle 27 at Arizona 10, Seahawks -5.5, Under 49
Dec. 30, 2018 - Seattle 27 vs. Arizona 24, Cardinals +14, Over 39.5

Handicapping the Side

Flipping the result from the first meeting and backing Seattle here is an interesting proposition. The point spread has already dropped multiple points against the Seahawks since opening, and how sour the market has gone on Wilson these past two weeks does give the sense that Seattle's in a bit of a buy low spot here.

Then on the Arizona side of things, it's always tough to come down from such a high like they had in that Buffalo win and flip the composure back a few days later for another very tough, division, opponent. There are a lot of things working in Seattle's favor situationally.

But then you remember the defense they trot out there, and you think about the notion that if Wilson struggles again this week, a Seattle ATS play has no shot, where an 'under' play in a Seattle loss still does. Far from a ringing endorsement for either side really, and not the greatest way to approach any play, but it's a thought I can't get out of my head when considering backing Seattle.

It would be Seattle or nothing for me though on the side, but maybe now that it's settled in the -3 range, a more reasonable ML price on Seattle is now out there for bettors. You never know with traditional scoring lines these days with XP's missed and two-point conversions gone for and Arizona backers on the closing number last week know all about that.

Do have a tough time seeing Arizona being anywhere near their best on a short week with travel, having already proved they could beat this Seahawks team, and being off how that Buffalo win played out. But in case it's another rough outing for Wilson and that Seahawks offense, I'd prefer to take my chances with the total.

Key Injuries

Arizona

TE Darrell Daniels: Ankle - Questionable
S Deionte Thompson: Knee - Questionable
DE Jordan Phillips: Foot - Questionable
OL Justin Murray: Hand - Questionable
DT Leki Fotu: Ankle - Questionable

Seattle

RB Carlos Hyde: Hamstring - Probable
WR Tyler Lockett: Knee - Questionable
G Mike Iupati: Leg - Questionable
G Jordan Simmons: Calf - Questionable
C Kyle Fuller: Ankle - Questionable
RB Travis Homer: Hand - Questionable
CB Neiko Thorpe: Groin - Questionable
DE Benson Mayowa: Ankle - Questionable
RB Chris Carson: Foot - Questionable
CB Shaquill Griffin: Concussion - Questionable
C Ethan Pocic: Concussion - Questionable
DT Bryan Mone: Ankle - Questionable
CB Quinton Dunbar: Knee - Out

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Over-Under: 5-4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

CFB Pick and Horses 11/19

Another top play hits as Toledo takes care of Eastern Michigan. Here's a CFB play and some Aquaduct picks.

100* Utah State +20.5

Aquaduct Race 1
#1 king Of Ranch $10 wps
$2 exacta box 1-2-4

Aquaduct Race 8
#10 Come Storming $10 wps
$2 exacta box 10-12-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Tulane/Tulsa Under 53½ Points

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: TULANE/TULSA OVER the total of 53½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Roz Wins

ROZ's THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 19, 2020
Free Pick
321. Arz/Sea UNDER 57.5 (5:20 PT / 8:20 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports

Thursday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Liberty Flames + 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play THURSDAY, November 19, 2020
CFB
426. Tulsa -6.5 (4:30 PT / 7:30 ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Thursday Selection Is

Tulane/Tulsa UNDER 54½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Thursday FB

Tulane/Tulsa under 53

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Pick: San Diego State Aztecs - 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Huddle Up Sports

Thursday Free Play: Tulane/Tulsa Over 53

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Last Call

Thursday's Free Play: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - 7