Service Plays Saturday 11/21/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
MON 11/16

CLEMSON @ FLORIDA ST. | 11/21 | 12:00 PM EST
CLEMSON -34.5
Florida State is just not a good football team right now and has had a lot of key players opt out for the rest of the season. That is not what you want to hear when you have Clemson coming to town following a double-overtime loss to Notre Dame and a bye week. The Tigers have had ample time to stew over the defeat, anticipating the next time they get back on the field.

+367 29-23 IN LAST 52 CFB ATS PICKS
+850 14-5 IN LAST 19 FSU ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 12 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. Stanford Steve hit on three of four picks last week, and he is 21-11 on the season. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 12 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records

Stanford Steve (3-1 last week, 21-11 overall)
The Bear (1-3, 15-15)

The plays


No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-35, 64) at Florida State Seminoles

Stanford Steve: Does anyone think Trevor Lawrence is going come back after being out with COVID-19 and Dabo Swinney is gonna tell him to hand the ball off to Travis Etienne? I sure don't. Expect the Tigers to come out for the first time we have seen them since losing in South Bend to Notre Dame and do whatever they want ... looking a lot like they did when they won in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago versus Georgia Tech, 73-7. I'll lay the points with Dabo and the boys.
Pick: Clemson -35 (Clemson 69, Florida State 17)

No. 6 Florida Gators (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt Commodores

Stanford Steve: Totally going with the "what have you done for me lately" theory here. Florida scored 65 points versus Arkansas last week, and Vanderbilt scored 35 versus Kentucky. Let's hope they both score that much this week. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 68 (Florida 51, Vanderbilt 24)

No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-6, 63.5) at UCF Knights

The Bear: According to adjusted defensive EPA, Tulsa's defense ranks one spot higher than Cincinnati, and UCF put up 455 yards on the Golden Hurricane. Yes, the Knights also turned it over three times in a game in which they blew a big first-half lead, but I'm going to trust the UCF offense here to post its fair share of yards and points on a Cincinnati defense that hasn't allowed more than 17 points to an FBS opponent this season. Will it be enough against a Cincinnati offense that has gotten going the past few weeks? Maybe not, but I do think grabbing UCF and the points is the right move here.
Pick: UCF +6

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-25, 44.5)

The Bear: You might have missed it, but Mississippi State had just 204 yards and threw for 4.9 yards per attempt against Vanderbilt. If the Georgia D is still motivated, I can't imagine MSU having much success at all against a defense that is third in adjusted defensive EPA. At the same time, MSU's defense is fifth in that metric, and we've seen both Stetson Bennett and D'Wan Mathis struggle against good defenses this season. Even if star WR George Pickens is back, I'm not sure we can expect Georgia to score in the middle to upper 30s, which is likely what will be needed to push this one over the total.
Pick: Under 44.5

Kansas State Wildcats at No. 17 Iowa State Cyclones (-10.5, 46.5)

The Bear: After a sloppy win over Baylor, expect the Cyclones to handle K-State here in a bit of a revenge game after the Wildcats' defense had its way with Iowa State last year (236 yards allowed, 1-for-13 on third down). It wasn't like the Wildcats did much offensively either -- 288 yards and had a TD on a kickoff return -- and that was with Skylar Thompson at QB. K-State's offense against the past three teams it has faced not named Kansas: 37 drives, four TDs, six turnovers, 15 drives without a first down. Iowa State controls its fate to reach the Big 12 title game, and I don't see any lookahead to next week's game versus Texas in Austin.
Pick: Iowa State -10.5

No. 21 Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack (-3.5, 66.5)

The Bear: The four best teams NC State has faced have each put up better than 40 points on the Wolfpack, and the NC State running game should have some success versus Liberty. Liberty QB Malik Willis threw for 217 yards and ran for 108 against Virginia Tech in a 38-35 win. Is there any reason not to expect Willis to have a similar type of game here given the amount of damage D'Eriq King did to NC State's defense a couple weeks ago? I'd be surprised if we didn't have another 38-35 type of game here.
Pick: Over 66.5

Tulane Green Wave at No. 25 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-6.5, 63.5)

The Bear: Tulane lost a couple of close contests early, dropped a weird game versus Houston and then was just outmanned by UCF. But the Green Wave have won three straight in which their defense has played much better, and they now face a Tulsa team that has a solid D, is hit or miss on offense and is ripe for a bit of a letdown after a big comeback win over SMU. Feels like a good spot to take the points.
Pick: Tulane +6.5

Washington State Cougars at Stanford Cardinal (-2.5, 64.5)

Stanford Steve: No one has blown me away at the quarterback position more this year than Washington State's Jayden de Laura. The true freshman from St. Louis High School in Honolulu -- the same school that produced Tua Tagovailoa and Marcus Mariota -- has thrown for 548 yards and four TDs in his first two games as a college football player. However, having watched the Cardinal play the past two weeks, the lack of speed in the WSU secondary does not bode well for Nick Rolovich's squad from Pullman. I'll take the points with the Cougs.
Pick: Washington State +2.5 (Washington State 38, Stanford 37)

San Jose State Spartans (-2.5, 60.5) at Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bear: Since a three-interception performance in the opener versus Hawaii, Fresno State QB Jake Haener has been great, putting up an 83 QBR with eight TDs and just one INT. Yes, there's a chance it was a byproduct of playing three of the worst teams in the Mountain West Conference in UNLV, Utah State and Colorado State. But while San Jose State has been a great story, the Spartans are facing the best offense they have seen all season, and their undefeated record is certainly in jeopardy.
Pick: Fresno State +2.5
The Bear's money line parlay

$100 returns $44
Clemson -7000
Ohio State -1200
Iowa State -380
Florida -4500
Alabama -7000
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays

Tulane +205
UCF +180
Fresno State +115
Washington State +110
Bear Bytes

Ranked matchups
• Favorites began the year 14-2-1 against the spread in ranked matchups, but all three ranked matchups on Nov. 7 saw the underdog not only cover but win outright (Notre Dame over Clemson, Indiana over Michigan and Florida over Georgia).
Iowa (-2.5, 47) at Penn State
• This the eighth time Penn State has been a home underdog under James Franklin. Four of the previous seven instances were against Ohio State. The last time Penn State was a home dog to someone other than Ohio State was Oct. 8, 2016, against Maryland.
UCLA at No. 11 Oregon (-13.5, 66.5)
• With an upset win, UCLA would be over .500 for the first time under Chip Kelly. With Kelly at the helm, the Bruins have pulled one upset as a double-digit underdog -- the 67-63 win at Washington State last year as an 18.5-point 'dog.
No. 7 Cincinnati (-6, 63.5) at UCF
• This snaps UCF's 29-game streak in which it was a home favorite. It is the first time since September 2016 versus Maryland that the Knights are a home underdog.
Washington State at Stanford (-2, 64.5)
• Dating back to last year, Stanford has failed to cover in each of the past six games and is 2-11 ATS in its prior 13 contests. The Cardinal have lost six in a row straight up and 10 of their past 13.
No. 14 Oklahoma State at No. 18 Oklahoma (-7, 59.5)
• This is the first time since Nov. 11, 2017, that Oklahoma is a single-digit favorite. On that day, OU beat TCU 38-20 as a 6-point favorite.
• Since 2015, Oklahoma has been a favorite of seven points or fewer nine times in a regular-season game. The Sooners have won all nine games and are 8-0-1 ATS.
No. 10 Wisconsin (-7.5, 44) at No. 19 Northwestern
• The Wildcats have covered five of the past six in the series, winning three outright -- all as an underdog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Week 12 college football best bets: No. 7 Cincinnati visits UCF

Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (2-2 last week, 24-17 overall), Bill Connelly (0-2, 13-14), Preston Johnson (1-3, 20-13), David M. Hale (0-3, 13-15) and Seth Walder (0-0, 4-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 12 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).


Purdue Boilermakers (-3, 63) at Minnesota Golden Gophers, Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

Kezirian: This game has shootout written all over it. Minnesota has allowed 35+ points in its three losses, and the defense only kept Illinois in check because the Illini were relegated to what now looks like their fourth-best quarterback. However, the Gophers' offense has some talent with QB Tanner Morgan, RB Mohamed Ibrahim and likely NFL first-round draft pick WR Rashod Bateman. Only Iowa has been able to slow down Minnesota, and that's fairly understandable. The Hawkeyes rank third in yards per play allowed.
Purdue is similar in many ways, with a play-making wide receiver in David Bell. The rushing attack is not as potent, but quarterback Aidan O'Connell is throwing the ball often. And that should work quite well against a Minnesota defense allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 106th of 126 FBS teams. Overall, the Gophers are allowing 7.6 yards per play -- second-worst in the country, behind only Akron. For those unfamiliar with the Zips, they have as many wins since 2019 as their school mascot indicates: 0.
Pick: Over 63

No. 6 Florida Gators (-31.5, 68) at Vanderbilt Commodores, noon ET (on ESPN)

Kezirian: Florida is likely able to name its score, and I think Vanderbilt's ineptitude will allow the Gators to hang a 50-spot. The Gators own one of the nation's best offenses, scoring at least 38 points in all six games. Even when Dan Mullen allows his backups to play, the Gators still find the end zone. You cannot expect the reserves to run the power-I formation on every play, and even if they did, the Commodores could not stop it.
Fifty points is really not that much, when you consider Vanderbilt is 0-6 and has been outscored 215-99. The Commodores allowed LSU and South Carolina to score 41 points, so why can't the Gators drop 50? Even Mississippi State scored 24 against Vandy. To put that in perspective, the Bulldogs' offense was held scoreless against Alabama and Kentucky, and only managed 14 points against Arkansas and Texas A&M.
Pick: Florida -31.5; Florida over 49.5 (at DraftKings)

Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-15, 59), noon ET

Kezirian: Thanksgiving is next week, but it seems like both teams have just figured out their QB depth chart. Luke McCaffrey replaced Adrian Martinez and the Nebraska offense responded well, building a 27-3 lead in the upset over Penn State last week. McCaffrey should look even more comfortable against an Illinois defense that has gaping holes and constant confusion in its secondary. The Illini did some nice things against Rutgers, but have allowed 31+ points in their three losses.
Meanwhile, last weekend Isaiah Williams became the fourth different Illinois starting quarterback in as many games. He ran for 192 yards, and his speed kept Rutgers' defenders looking pretty clueless. Nebraska has a better defense, but this is still a far cry from a vintage Cornhuskers D. Additionally Brandon Peters, who started the opener, is expected to return from COVID-19, and I imagine Lovie Smith will find creative ways to utilize both quarterbacks.
Pick: Over 59

Georgia Southern Eagles at Army Black Knights (-4, 41), noon ET

Hale: Army's 6-2 record looks impressive until you dig into the schedule, which is abysmal. Three wins came against FCS foes, and the other three against teams ranked 108, 122 and 123 in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). In the two games the Black Knights played against legitimate opponents, they managed to score a combined 22 points. Georgia Southern isn't elite by any stretch, but the Eagles have solid wins over Troy and South Alabama, and they held their own against both Louisiana and Coastal Carolina. They're also allowing just 3.48 yards per rush, tops in the Sun Belt. This feels like a particularly good matchup for Georgia Southern, and a chance to get points with the better team.
Pick: Georgia Southern +4

No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-6, 63.5) at UCF Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Johnson: I have been as pro-Cincinnati this season as anybody and bet the Bearcats in two of their past four games -- and I still think this line is way too extreme. I can see the Bearcats earning the right to be a small favorite, but anything over a field goal is too much, and I'm taking the points. Despite the losses on its résumé, UCF is still top 10 offensively in expected points added (EPA) and success rate. The Knights lead the country in total yards. Their tempo will be something Cincinnati's defense hasn't seen this season. I expect this to be its toughest test yet.
The concern for UCF would be on the other side of the ball against a Desmond Ridder-led Cincy offense that is making a ton of noise. I like the prospects of this matchup turning into a back-and-forth shootout with the matchup advantages for each team, and my projection for the total is closer to 68.
Pick: UCF +6 and over 63.5

No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-7.5, 43.5) at No. 19 Northwestern Wildcats, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Walder: There was no major team FPI was higher on relative to the general consensus than Wisconsin. Way back when no games had been played, it considered the Badgers the fourth-best team in college football while the preseason AP poll put them at No. 12. In the two games Wisconsin has played, FPI has only been emboldened, as the Badgers beat already high expectations from the model in their blowout victories over Illinois and Michigan.
While Northwestern is also undefeated, at 4-0, the model has been less impressed by the Wildcats. Though every single win has resulted in an upgrade to Northwestern's FPI rating, those upgrades have all been below a single point on a neutral field -- three of the four victories were within one score, after all. Contrast that with the four-point bump Wisconsin received from its win over Michigan alone, and we can see why FPI still prefers the Badgers by more than two touchdowns. It's looking past the zeroes in both loss columns and focusing on the way those zeroes were achieved.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5
Connelly: Algorithms of the world, unite! SP+ hasn't loved Wisconsin quite as much as FPI, but it's close, and it has still underestimated the Badgers by 19 points per game. Northwestern has overachieved in its own right, but this is a pure "let it ride" pick as far as Wisconsin is concerned. SP+ projects the Badgers to win by 15.5, and while I think a plodding tempo could keep it closer than that, that's a pretty good cushion between the line and the projection.
Pick: Wisconsin -7.5

UCLA Bruins at No. 11 Oregon Ducks (-13.5, 66.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)

Johnson: I think taking UCLA's win over Cal on Sunday as a worthwhile data point is an overreaction. Cal was dealing with COVID-19 concerns for the two weeks leading up to the game after some cancellations and didn't even know it was facing UCLA in a Sunday game until two days prior. Oregon is covering spreads left and right despite a minus-five turnover differential, and this Ducks offense won't have any issues against a Bruins defense that, in a more trustworthy result against Colorado in the opener, allowed 48 points to the Buffs.
Pick: Oregon -13.5

Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5, 47) at Penn State Nittany Lions, 3:30 p.m. ET

Hale: Sometimes you just have to wager on the idea that proud programs will show some heart when their backs are against the wall. Is Penn State the top-25 team we expected before the season? No. But are the Nittany Lions really an 0-5 team? Bad turnover luck (Penn State is minus-six on the season, losing the turnover margin in all four games) and bad luck overall (the Nittany Lions have outgained three of four opponents, two by more than 200 yards) have been as big an issue as the quarterback, and that luck has to turn soon. We'll take the points at home with a team desperate to redeem itself.
Pick: Penn State +2.5

Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (30, 58), 4 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)

Kezirian: Given its high-powered offense, Alabama is certainly capable of blowing out any opponent, especially one with limitations like Kentucky. But sometimes you have to dig deeper, and anticipate situations when a team is prime to merely go through the motions. Alabama has its rivalry game next week against Auburn, and most players are probably already focused on the Iron Bowl. Additionally, Nick Saban is known for taking his foot off the gas once the outcome is decided, and I can certainly see that happening in the fourth quarter against Kentucky. Plus Kentucky has a pretty strong defense, which should be able to prevent Alabama from marching up and down the field at will. The Wildcats are awful on offense -- they went four straight games scoring 10 points or fewer -- but I can see them doing some things when the Crimson Tide have the reserves in.
Pick: Kentucky +30

San Jose State Spartans (-2.5, 60) at Fresno State Bulldogs, 7 p.m. ET

Johnson: I make this game's total 64. The San Jose State offense has been phenomenal with either quarterback under center (first-stringer Nick Starkel is back, though), and the Fresno State offense is the best the Spartans will have seen by a massive margin to this point. Kalen DeBoer is a magician scheming plays for the Bulldogs. Both teams are in the top 40 in EPA offensively. I'm not overthinking this and am trusting my numbers here.
Pick: Over 60
Kezirian: Fresno State has a phony 3-1 record, and the oddsmakers have shown that by casting them as a home underdog. The Bulldogs just beat Utah State, who is winless, 0-4 ATS and already got rid of its coach. Fresno State has also beaten winless UNLV, and Colorado State -- but that was before Steve Addazaio figured out that his best quarterback is Patrick O'Brien. Todd Centeio started and played nearly the entire game against Fresno State, but was ineffective.
The Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS, and the push against UNLV only came because San Jose State played a very vanilla offense in the fourth quarter, drained the clock and took a knee inside the 10-yard line. They also have a double-digit win over San Diego State, who I think is quite good. Fresno State running back Ronnie Rivers is a capable player and will produce, but a polished Nick Starkel and the San Jose State passing attack will prove to be too much.
Pick: San Jose State -2.5

No. 14 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (-7, 59), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)

Kezirian: After suffering back-to-back losses, Oklahoma has cranked up the offense and torched opponents in four straight wins. That includes a 33-9 win over TCU, and three other victories in which the Sooners dropped at least 53 points. Lincoln Riley's unit lacks a Heisman candidate, but it still ranks in the top 25 in yards per play and yards per pass attempt.
Oklahoma State has a respectable defense and is ranked higher, but the high-powered offense always wins these battles -- just ask Georgia about its meeting with Alabama. For whatever reason, the Cowboys have not managed much on offense this year. They sputter way too often. As for the rivalry, it's been dominated by Oklahoma -- Mike Gundy is only 2-13 against the Sooners.
Pick: Oklahoma -7; Oklahoma over 33.5 (at DK)

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs (-25, 44.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on SEC Network)

Kezirian: Georgia's defense will dominate this game, and there is a chance Mississippi State will be held to zero or one score. But I do not feel comfortable laying 25 points with an inept Georgia offense. To me, this handicap comes down to the Mississippi State defense -- is it capable of putting up a fight? I think so, to a certain extent. I may be guilty of getting a little too cute, but I am banking on Mike Leach's crew to have some fight at the start.
Given Stetson Bennett's limitations, and there are plenty, Kirby Smart has approached first quarters with extreme caution. Georgia has not scored more than 10 points in the first quarter this season. It's time to capitalize on that conservative play-calling and top-notch defense. I highly doubt Mississippi State will score in the first quarter, so it comes down to whether Bennett and the offense can muster two touchdowns. Sure, a long Georgia run could happen, but I trust the Mississippi State defense to hold its own.
Pick: First quarter under 10.5 (at DK)

No. 21 Liberty Flames at NC State Wolfpack (-3.5, 66.5), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)

Connelly: Three sweet spots for SP+ picks this season, albeit with small sample sizes in the first two cases: 6-2 against the spread picking NC State games; 4-2 ATS picking Liberty games; 19-10 ATS in games in which (a) it disagrees with the spread by at least three points and (b) the line is between 3.5 and 6.5 points. And it was 40-27-1 with those criteria last season.
While NC State has been a pretty inconsistent team, Liberty hasn't. The Flames were lucky to beat a much better Virginia Tech team but still played well against the Hokies, and the fact that SP+ projects them to have a 4.4-point advantage -- a pretty significant difference with the line -- gives me confidence.
Pick: Liberty +3.5

No. 20 USC Trojans (-3, 57.5) at Utah Utes, 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)

Connelly: Aside from its strange and, as of last week, unjustified love of Washington, SP+ has had a decent read on the Pac-12 so far. It's 3-2 ATS when it disagrees with the line by more than three points, 3-1 sans Washington.
I'm going to trust it when it says Utah has a slight advantage over USC, even though we haven't seen the Utes play yet. The Trojans have underachieved in each of their first two games, so that makes it a bit easier to swallow.
Pick: Utah +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

7 SC +6.5

4 Ark +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

5 over 66.5 IU/OSU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

**8-U COLLEGE FOOTBALL GOTY

Oregon -13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza (VSI)

7 - Ok/Ok St. over 59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

7 - Boise st/Hawaii under 58

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

Big 10 Game of the Year
8 Units wisconsin-3.5 for 1st half

4 ucf+6
3 cal-3.5
3 wisconsin-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

Best Bets

Here are Barrett Sallee's picks and write-ups for Week 12 (picks made on Nov. 19):

OVER 44.5
MISS. STATE @ GEORGIA | 11/21 | 7:30 PM ET

I understand the thought process that Mississippi State's offense will struggle due to tough competition, COVID-19 issues and a season that seems lost. I also understand the thought process that Georgia's offense will continue to struggle because … let's be real … it has struggled for the better part of the season. This week is different, though. JT Daniels is scheduled to get the start under center for Georgia, and coach Kirby Smart will do all that he can to open things up in the passing game as much as humanly possible. Because of that, the Over will hit with ease.

UNDER 63.5
LSU @ ARKANSAS | 11/21 | NOON ET

The Tigers have massive quarterback issues, are still dealing with a depleted roster due to COVID-19 and are on the verge of mailing it in after a disappointing season that included a horrifying story involving sexual assault this week. Yes, Arkansas' defense got lit up like a Christmas tree last week at Florida. But the Gators are going to do that to a lot of teams. LSU isn't equipped to do that. This one will be sloppy enough to hit the Under with ease.

WISCONSIN -7
WISCONSIN @ NORTHWESTERN | 11/21 | 3:30 PM EST

This is the Super Bowl for the Wildcats, but just another game for a Badgers crew that has been lighting it up on offense through two games. They are averaging a whopping 6.07 yards per play, have the top rushing offense in the Big Ten (261.5 ypg) and have a defense that has shut down Illinois and Michigan in blowout wins. I'd love to know how Northwestern is going to keep up with a Badgers team that looks the part of a College Football Playoff contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

CFB PICK: Indiana Hoosiers +20.5

Why will Indiana cover the spread?
In order to keep this game close, Indiana will need to slow down Justin Fields and limit his efficiency. So far this season, Fields’ production has been other-worldly. His 86.7 percent completion rate is 10 points higher than the next closest player, his 10.9 yards per attempt leads the Big Ten and is third best in the country, and he’s thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. He’s the only QB (out of 51 qualified) who hasn’t thrown an interception while having thrown at least nine touchdowns. Indiana ranks 21st overall with 6.4 yards allowed per pass attempt thus far, and they’ve intercepted opposing QBs a Big-Ten-high 10 times through four games. The Hoosiers also lead the Big Ten with 12 sacks on the season, so they have a good chance to disrupt Fields’ timing and force him into negative plays.
Indiana’s red zone defense has been elite this season. They’ve allowed opponents to score on just 44.4 percent of their red zone trips, which is the lowest rate in the country. If they can force Ohio State into field goals or, better yet, turnovers in the red zone instead of touchdowns, they’ll have a great chance to cover the lofty three-touchdown spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Akins

MICH -10.5
MICH @ RUT | 11/21 | 7:30 PM EST10:06 AM
Rutgers' performance this season is certainly an upgrade over recent seasons, but the Scarlet Knights are still just 1-3 with two of those losses not particularly competitive. For Michigan, I see this as a matchup where the Wolverines have a clear advantage, and I do not expect the Wolverines to ease up in a much-needed victory. Michigan is the road favorite despite losing its past two games by a combined 55 points. Teams that are away favorites when the combined margin of their last two games is -50 or worse are 77-49-2 ATS. Prediction: Michigan 41, Rutgers 17.

WISC -7.5
WISC @ NWEST | 11/21 | 3:30 PM EST10:01 AM
Because the narrative after last week’s Wisconsin-Michigan game turned entirely to Michigan’s failures, everyone did not appreciate how strong of a performance it was by Wisconsin. For Northwestern, this is a chance to make a statement at home against a really good team. However, time and time again the Wildcats have failed to live up to expectations in this situation. Northwestern is 0-16 ATS (-11.91 points per game) since Nov. 11, 2006, at home against a team that has won at least 86 percent of its games. I'm on Wisconsin. Wisconsin 31, Northwestern 13.

FSU +35.5
CLEM @ FSU | 11/21 | 12:00 PM EST9:57 AM
It has been an ugly season for Florida State for the most part, but the team did show the ability to stay competitive at Notre Dame. That is the closest comparison to Clemson on the Seminoles' schedule so far. This play is more about Clemson though, and in Trevor Lawrence’s first game back we expect rust. Getting late in the season, home underdogs at this large of a number tend to be value. Teams as home underdogs of at least 31 points in at least Game Six of the season are 63-46-2 ATS. Prediction: Clemson 41, Florida State 17.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

OHIOST -20.5
IND @ OHIOST | 11/21 | 12:00 PM EST12:12 PM
Justin Fields and the Buckeyes are going to force the Hoosiers into a shootout, and there’s no chance that Michael Penix Jr. and that crew can keep up. They’re 10th in the Big Ten in total offense (362.8 yards per game) and 11th in yards per play (4.94).

18-7 IN LAST 25 CFB PICKS | +1035
4-0 IN LAST 4 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +400

MICH -10.5
MICH @ RUT | 11/21 | 7:30 PM EST12:07 PM
The Wolverines have been garbage this season and have mentally checked out. But they still have more than enough to out-talent their way to at least a two-touchdown win over a Scarlet Knights team that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in total offense (329.5 yards per game).

18-7 IN LAST 25 CFB PICKS | +1035
4-3 IN LAST 7 MICH ATS PICKS | +74

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

NCAA

Iowa -2.5 vs penn. state

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

DOUBLE PLAY:
LSU -2

SINGLE PLAYS:
Liberty +3.5
Utah +3
Oregon State +3.5
UTSA -9
Nevada +1.5
Northwestern +7.5
Oklahoma State +7
Iowa State -11
Boise -14