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GB +1.5
GB @ IND | 11/22 | 1:00 PM ESTFRI 11/20
With Davante Adams and Jaire Alexander avoiding final injury tags on Friday, the Packers are the more talented team in this matchup. Adams is one of the best receivers in football, while Alexander ranks as Pro Football Focus' No. 1 cornerback on the season. Each can provide problems for a Colts team that struggles against good secondaries (19 points vs. Bears, 10 points vs. Ravens) and quality receivers, though they haven't been tested by anyone nearly as good as Adams this year. We're getting great value off the lookahead line, which had the Packers favored, and the final score in Green Bay's win over Jacksonville was a bit of a mirage. I love getting points with the Packers in this matchup.
29-19-3 IN LAST 51 NFL ATS PICKS | +765
40-9 IN LAST 49 GB ATS PICKS | +2972
29-16-1 IN LAST 46 IND ATS PICKS | +1109
FEATURED PICK
UNDER 48
LAR @ TB | 11/23 | 8:15 PM ESTFRI 11/20
These are two of the best defenses in the league, with the Bucs ranking first in DVOA and the Rams eighth, though the latter is also fist in points per drive and net yards per pass attempt. The Buccaneers defense also blitzes more than any other, and Jared Goff has struggled when blitzed. Pair that with the Rams run game going up against a Bucs stop unit that has allowed a league-best 3.3 yards per carry, and I don't see much in the way of points from Los Angeles. Tom Brady's offense may have issues as well consistently beating a Rams secondary that has been excellent this year. This one might not be 13-3 like the last Brady-Goff matchup, but expect a similar game.
36-26-3 IN LAST 65 NFL PICKS | +700
5-1 IN LAST 6 LAR O/U PICKS | +390
CLE -2.5
PHI @ CLE | 11/22 | 1:00 PM ESTYESTERDAY 5:35 PM
With rain expected for this game, the conditions should favor the team that can run the ball and defend the run best, and in both cases that has been the Browns this season. The Eagles have also been the team more susceptible to turnovers this season, with the offense and defense both ranking in the bottom five of turnover rate (while the Browns defense ranks third). Not having Myles Garrett is tough, and the movement in the line has shown that, but I think the line was mispriced all along and would have liked the Browns up to 6 with Garrett healthy. Now that we're under the key number of 3, there's no reason to hold back any longer.
29-19-3 IN LAST 51 NFL ATS PICKS | +765
15-10-4 IN LAST 29 CLE ATS PICKS | +397
TEN +6
TEN @ BAL | 11/22 | 1:00 PM ESTFRI 11/20
After dropping during the week, this line steamed back up after six Titans were ruled out, but I think the absence of those players matters less than the Ravens likely being without Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. That should give Derrick Henry the opportunity to have a big game on the ground and keep an offense that was already scoring 17-24 points in tough matchups from being shut down. On the other side, the Ravens have suffered losses on their offensive line this year that have lowered the ceiling for the offense, and that should keep them in range of Tennessee all game at the worst and possibly playing catch up if Henry and Ryan Tannehill can consistently beat an undermanned Baltimore defense.
29-19-3 IN LAST 51 NFL ATS PICKS | +765
14-10 IN LAST 24 BAL ATS PICKS | +300
3-1 IN LAST 4 TEN ATS PICKS | +190
ATL +3.5
ATL @ NO | 11/22 | 1:00 PM ESTFRI 11/20
I liked the Falcons earlier in the week and would've jumped all over the number had I known Taysom Hill would be starting this game. The lookahead line for this matchup was Saints -7, and you need to adjust more than four points for the drop from Drew Brees to Hill based on what we've seen so far from the versatile offensive weapon. The Falcons are playing well under Raheem Morris, but the one area where they've had consistent trouble is running the ball. That wasn't going to happen anyway against an elite Saints rush defense. With the Atlanta offense healthy, the Falcons will do enough to cover this number and could win outright unless Hill has a hidden gear we don't know about.
29-19-3 IN LAST 51 NFL ATS PICKS | +765
32-18 IN LAST 50 ATL ATS PICKS | +1205
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