Sunday 12/20/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Sean Murphy's Sunday NFL Winner

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints Under 52.5 (-107) (BetAnySports)

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is being pegged as a shootout, as you would expect in a game between the juggernaut Chiefs and the Saints in a domed environment in New Orleans. I'm not so sure we're going to see that type of game unfold, however. The Chiefs offense isn't invincible and it will be up against a stout Saints defense that will have a sour taste in its mouth after last week's tough loss in Philadelphia (we won with the Eagles in that game). Note that Kansas City is dealing with a cluster of injuries and absences on its offensive line and now faces a nightmare matchup against a dominant Saints pass rush. Meanwhile, New Orleans is expected to welcome back QB Drew Brees, who had been playing well prior to his injury, but I'm not sure he's interested or capable of going toe-to-toe with Pat Mahomes in a back-and-forth shootout at this stage of his career, especially with WR Michael Thomas sidelined (he's been placed on injured reserve). The Saints should give the Chiefs a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara, both running the football and in the short passing game in this one. With both defenses focused on eliminating their opponents' big play potential look for plenty of long drives ultimately helping keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

It is now Week 15 of the NFL campaign and I have been money on Sunday's this season. ANother Sunday winner goes for you right now.

Tampa Bay came back from their bye-week last weekend with a 12-point home win and cover against the Minnesota Vikings in a game that was a lot closer than the final score indicated as Vikings kicker Dan Bailey did miss an extra point and 3 field goals along the way. Still, the Bucs win puts them back in the driver's seat for a Wild Card spot and Tampa has the benefit of playing these Atlanta Falcons twice now over the final 3 weeks of the season.

I am not going to dwell over past history meetings - the Falcons are 6-1 straight up the past 7! - because this will be the first time Tampa Bay will be facing Atlanta with Tom Brady at quarterback and I have a strong suspicion that if Brady had been in a Tampa uniform for some of those past meetings then the Falcons would not be 6-1.

Atlanta continues to find interesting ways to lose football games this season with last week's latest setback - their 9th in 13 games this year - came with the Chargers kicking a closing seconds field goal to dump them 20-17. The Falcons offense has been held to 17 points or less in their last pair and in 3 of their last 4 games overall. Both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are dealing with injuries and are listed as questionable and my feeling is now that the team is eliminated from the playoff picture I doubt either will be too eager to get back on the field and risks re-injuring themselves.

Matt Ryan has been sacked 33 times on the season and did get intercepted 3 times in last week's last seconds loss to the Chargers. Tampa's defense has sacked the opposing quarterbacks 40 times already this season, so this sure looks like a bad matchup for the home team today.

Bucs with the road win and cover over the Falcons for Sunday.

2* TAMPA BAY

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Gus Augustine

My Complimentary Winner... I'm 7-2-2 with complimentary plays since my return.

My free winner for Sunday is on the New England Patriots, plus the points in Miami against a Dolphins team that has one major intangible working against it.

Bill Belichick is 20-5 lifetime in the regular season against rookie quarterbacks. Add a playoff game in 2004, against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, make it 21-5.

Roethlisberger, Colt McCoy, Russell Wilson, Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith are the only rookies to serve the mad scientist an L, as rookies, in the regular season.

A couple weeks back, L.A. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert felt the wrath in a 45-0 loss on his field. And it's important to note this is a kid who leads the league in passing yards when under pressure.

Next up: Tua Tagovailoa.

The rookie from Alabama has lost two of his last three, in Denver, where the Broncos limited him to a 55% completion percentage, and last week at home against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who stymied him to a 58.3% clip.

Tagovailoa has impressive QB ratings twice this season. The other five, not so much - an average of 85.74. His overall quarterback rating (based on ESPN's formula) is a not-so impressive 57.3.

Belichick has become a master of figuring young quarterbacks out by studying their nuances, and how to fluster them into situations they're not accustomed to. By figuring out what the youngsters haven't, once under pressure, Belichick employs the second and third steps to stopping a quarterback.

Bad news for Tagovailoa, who is sacked 7.1% of the time he attempts a sack - tied for 11th-highest in the league, with - ahem - New England's Cam Newton.

Coming off a disappointing loss to Kansas City, and the only wins the past month coming against the Jets and Bengals, something tells me this is a letdown spot for Miami.

2* PATRIOTS

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Chris Jordan

It's scary to say, scary to think, scary to know, but the NFC East might be one of the best performing divisions right now. Sounds crazy, right?

Well, I'm taking the points Sunday with the Washington Football Team catching points against the Seattle Seahawks.

Surprised Washington can finish the season 9-7, but it's possible by winning out, and it could roll into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams by doing so.

In case you haven't been paying attention, Washington has one of the best defenses in the league, ranking sixth in points allowed (275), fourth in yards allowed (4,074), and third in first downs allowed (238). During a current four-game win streak, the Football Team has yielded an average of 14.2 points, including a 23-17 win over the previously undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers.

You really questioning whether or not Washington can beat Seattle, which just lost to the New York Giants two weeks ago? Please don't bring up last week's 40-3 win over the New York Jets. That means nothing. Against the NFC East this season, the average final has been 24.3-21.6 in favor of the Seahawks. Tht wouldn't cover this number.

Seattle has the L.A. Rams on deck in what the Seahawks may deem as more important, and that doesn't help in this cross-country clash.

I'm taking the points here.

1* FOOTBALL TEAM

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Trace Adams

My comp play for Sunday will be the Jets and Rams Under the total.

New York could only manage a field goal in last week's 40-3 shellacking at Seattle and they also only managed a field goal when they faced the Miami Dolphins 3 weeks ago. It seems highly-likely the Jets will be held in the single-digit price range again today when they make another east-to-west journey to face the Los Angeles Rams.

L.A. has been off since their defense stifled Cam Newton and the New England Patriots 24-3 back on December 10th in a game that held well Under the posted total.

Sean McVay knows he has a defense that can play lights-out, so expect him to have his quarterback Jared Goff to rely on the running of breakout rookie Cam Akers and also rely on short dink-and-dunk routes to keep possession of the football and chew up the clock today. The Rams defense will do the rest as this figures to be a textbook 31 points or so combined Under.

Los Angeles has played Under the total in 8 of their last 10 games and in 9 of 13 overall this year! The Rams defense is allowing just 18.9 points per game for the season, while the Jets come in averaging only 14.1 points per game on offense.

Oh, the Rams may score some points, but they will not allow the Jets to score enough to help take this one Over the total.

Jets-Rams Under on Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

3* N.Y. JETS-L.A. RAMS UNDER

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Bob Valentino

Biggest number of the regular season being posted on today's Jets-Rams game and I have to lay it!

The Jets are inching closer to their goal of completing the season without a win and placing themselves squarely as the favorites to draft Clemson's Trevor Lawrence. After last weekend's 40-3 blasting at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks, New York is now 0-13 straight up and the +16 1/2 points they were getting last week didn't help one iota as the Jets have now failed 5 of their last 6 games when installed as the road underdog.

As for the Rams, they have been off since that Thursday night game at home against the New England Patriots when they were able to dominate Bill Belichick's team, 24-3. The Los Angeles defense leads the league in yards allowed per game - 285.8 yards. They are also 3rd in both points allowed - just 18.9 per game - and in total sacks with 42 recorded in their 13 games played this year.

Sean McVay's team stands at 10-3 on the season and they have won 5 of their 6 home games this season and have covered in 6 of their last 8 home games overall. The Rams do have their second and final game with division-rival Seattle on-deck for next weekend, but with the Jets being such a BAD team, I don't see anyway the Rams will overlook tattooing this New York team especially playing at home for the second straight week and with a couple of added days of rest to boot.

Remember, not only are the Jets 0-13, but they made the long trek to Seattle last weekend and flew back home and now they must make another 3,000 mile journey for the second weekend in a row.

I don't think it will be 40-3 this weekend for the Flyboys, but I can see the Rams taking this one in the 31-10 price range.

4* L.A. RAMS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Siefken

Event: (300937) Bayern at (300938) Oldenburg
Sport/League: EBB
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Total Under 166.5 (-116)
I am winning 57% of my Bundesliga German basketball bets and I have a best bet pack of two picks for only $15. In this one my numbers have the total at 155.5, that is 11 points of line value and it's enough for a 3% play on the Under 166.5. Bayern has the best defense in the league by far and they should be able to hold the high-powered offense of Oldenburg down. Bet Total Under 166.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Event: (367) San Francisco 49ers at (368) Dallas Cowboys
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Dallas Cowboys +3.0 (-105)
-San Francisco was in a terrific scheduling spot last week, and they still lost; bad spot here
-Dallas is 2-2 SU over their last 4 games; they are once again playing a team on their level
-Cowboys average 5.9 yards per play at home vs. defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play
Play COWBOYS (+).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (353) New England Patriots at (354) Miami Dolphins
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Total Under 41.5 (-110)

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Dave Cokin

Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +6.5 (-110)
I can't say I'm excited about Haskins having to play QB for Washington. But aside from that, I think there's plenty of reason to back this surprisingly hot team. The WFT defense is playing at a sensational level right now, and anytime I can take a touchdown range with a home team that is stopping like they are, I am usually going to be very interested. Obviously, we cannot afford to get into a shootout here. If the Seahawks offense has a big day, there's no way the home team is going to stay with them. But aside from last week's blowout over the miserable Jets, the Seattle offense has been a little spotty over the last month. They're certainly not scoring like they did earlier in the campaign. The key here is Haskins avoiding turnovers. If he can just manage the game, I absolutely can see the home dog having a legit chance to get a fifth straight win. I will take the points with Washington in what I see as a one possession battle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +6.5 (-110)
FREE PLAY: 3% WASHINGTON +6.5
Classic spot where we are getting the better defense getting points at home. Washington has held 4 straight opponents to 17 points or less. We also find that SEATTLE is just 8-22 ATS following a win by 21 points or more.
WASHINGTON 20-17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (355) Seattle Seahawks at (356) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
Injuries continue to pile up for the upstart Washington player personnel. Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense has turned more to Pete Carrol's roots, running the football, and if there is one variable that defines the Washington football team it isn't their ability to stop the opposition from grinding out yards via the ground.
Alex Smith's status has been questionable all week and I fully expect Dwayne Haskins to start behind center today. The Seahawks clinch a playoff spot with a huge road win today on Eastern Standard Time.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Event: (363) Philadelphia Eagles at (364) Arizona Cardinals
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-105)
Arizona's offense thrives when quarterback Kyle Murray uses his legs and I expect head coach Kliff Kingsbury to continue calling designed runs now that his quarterback is healthy. The Cardinals' offense is 14th in the league in both Total DVOA and Pass DVOA, and those numbers should improve against an injury-riddled Philadelphia secondary that is without both starting cornerbacks and three-fourths of its original secondary.
Specifically, Philadelphia cornerback Darius Slay did not travel with the team and is out with a concussion, while Avonte Maddox and Rodney McLeod were recently placed on injured reserve with knee injuries. Philadelphia's backups allowed 8.0 yards per pass play and a 50% success rate against the Saints last week and will be exploited once again by an Arizona offense that employs four wide receivers a league-high 22% of the time.
Finally, Arizona is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series and applies to a very good 32-17-1 ATS situation of mine that invests on certain favorites off a road win versus foes entering off an upset win. Take Arizona minus the points as Oskeim Sports' Free NFL Winner for Sunday, December 20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (365) Kansas City Chiefs at (366) New Orleans Saints
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 20, 2020 4PM EST
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-110)
Take Kansas City (#365)
The Chiefs are in the midst of a remarkable run: 5-0 SU in their last five games, but 0-5 ATS during that same span. Week after week, we’ve seen KC in an inflated pointspread range. Week after week, they’ve cost their backers money. This is an elite team with a very limited betting bandwagon – right now is the time to start backing Kansas City. I’m not expecting Drew Brees to be in midseason form after missing extended time with his rib injury and the Saints defense got gashed in Philly last week; bad news against Patrick Mahomes and company. Short chalk worth laying! Take the Chiefs.
Teddy enters the weekend riding a 68% NFL hot streak over the past seven weeks and a 69% college football run over the last month; making $$ for himself & his clients RIGHT NOW. Take advantage! Ride the hot hand & get onboard to cash in with Teddy’s NFL and college football winners all weekend long!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes



The largest underdogs to win straight up

Eagles (+7.5, ML +290) vs. Saints, 24-21
Broncos (+4, ML +170) at Panthers, 32-27
Washington (+3, ML +130) at 49ers, 23-15

The largest favorites to cover

Seahawks (-16.5) vs. Jets, 40-3
Titans (-7.5) at Jaguars, 31-10
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Vikings, 26-14

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Chicago Bears game had a total of 46.5. If you were an 'over' bettor, you might have started celebrating a little bit at halftime. The Bears, who average just 21.7 points per game, scored 23 points in the second quarter, taking a 30-7 lead into the break. Over bettors needed just 10 total points in the second half and they would be holding a winning ticket.

However, in the second half, the Texans offense continued to struggle, and the Bears were able to cobble together a pair of drives for field goals, winning 36-7. Under (46.5) bettors were left shaking their heads after it looks like an 'over' result was all but in the bag. Houston has now hit the under in four of the past five games, and Chicago has hit the under in seven of the previous 10.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins battle was a huge disappointment if you were holding a Chiefs (-7) ticket, and it wasn't terrible enjoyable if you were an 'under' (51.5) bettor, either.

QB Patrick Mahomes and company were leading 14-10 at halftime, and they put their foot on the gas in the third quarter and extended the lead to 30-10, including a 67-yard punt return for score by WR Mecole Hardman, and a safety. Things were looking up if you were laying the touchdown, but that's always a tough cover on the road.

The Dolphins stormed back with a pair of touchdowns, cutting Kansas City's lead to 30-24. QB Tua Tagovailoa had the 1-yard plunge with 4:15 to go, and that clinched the 'over'.

With just 68 seconds remaining in regulation, PK Harrison Butker booted a 46-yard field goal, and the Chiefs were up 33-24. It appeared they might have gotten the cover back. However, the Dolphins moved the ball down the field and elected to kick the 44-yard field goal first, since they needed two scores. That cut the lead back to 33-27, and it was like losing twice for Chiefs side bettors.

Total Recall

The lowest total on the board for the Sunday slate was the New Orleans Saints-Philadelphia Eagles (42.5) matchup. Instead of QB Drew Brees vs. QB Carson Wentz, it was Taysom Hill-Jalen Hurts, as Brees is out with an injury to his ribs, and Wentz was benched last week in favor of the more mobile rookie.

The game got off to a slow start after a scoreless first quarter, and the Saints didn't get their first points until the third quarter, cutting a 17-0 lead to 17-14. Under bettors were still looking good with 6:22 to play, as the Eagles saw RB Miles Sanders score his second touchdown of the game, making it 24-14. But with 1:24 to go, TE Jared Cook made a tremendous grab in the back of the end zone to make it 24-21. That was the final score, much to the dismay of 'under' bettors.

The highest total on Sunday was the Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions (56) tilt, and they tried late to make it go 'over'. The Packers scored seven or more points in each their four quarters, including a total of 20 combined points.

If you bet this game early in the week, you might have gotten the line at 55, for a push, or even at 54 briefly, for an over. But since it closed at 56, we'll officially call it an under.

In the first primetime game Thursday night, the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams (43.5) game easily went 'under', and it was never really in doubt. The Rams scratched out a 24-3 win over the Pats, cooling them off. In chilly conditions with flurries in western New York, the Buffalo Bills upended the Pittsburgh Steelers (48.5) by a 26-15 count, yet another under for primetime bettors with the Baltimore Ravens-Cleveland Browns (45.5) still pending.

So far this season the under is 26-15 (63.4%) across 41 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Chargers slapped the breaks on an 0-6 ATS skid with a win and cover over the Falcons on Sunday, 20-17. Previous to Sunday's game against Atlanta, the Bolts only had a victory over the winless New York Jets since Oct. 25, or Week 7. That includes a 31-26 setbvack against the Raiders at SoFi Stadium in L.A., as Las Vegas cover a one-point number as road favorites as the 'over' (52) connected.

The Raiders were drummed 44-27 at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and they fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther as a result, naming Rod Marinelli as the interim DC. The Raiders have allowed 28 or more points in four straight, and 43 or more points in two of the previous three. Vegas enters Thursday's game on an 0-3 ATS skid after a 4-0 ATS run from Weeks 8 through 11.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Panthers were toppled 32-27 by the Denver Broncos at home on Sunday, failing to cover as the 'over' (46.5) connected. Carolina has lost nine games this season, but seven have been one-score games. They covered in their most recent road game against an NFC North team, the Minnesota Vikings, but they're 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS in three games vs. the North this season.

For the Packers, they clinched the NFC North Division title with a win in Detroit, but they will likely keep their foot on the gas since there is just one bye at stake in this season's playoffs, so expect them to continue bringing their best. Green Bay has won three in a row since an overtime setback at Indianapolis in Week 11, and they're 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in six home games at Lambeau Field this season.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

The Colts picked up a 26-20 victory on the road against the Texans in Week 13, and now they meet again just two weeks later. If you remember, QB Deshaun Watson had a costly fumble late in the fourth quarter in the red zone, as the Texans were driving for a much-needed, and rare, win. As such, the Colts picked up the win and cover as 3.5-point favorites, moving to 4-1 ATS across the past five, while the 'over' is also 4-1 during the span.

The Texans have managed just 13.5 PPG across the past two games, while allowing 31.0 PPG, going 0-2 SU/ATS during the span as the 'under' has cashed. The under is also 4-1 in their previous five, including that game against Indy.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Steelers are on a two-game skid after opening the season 11-0 SU. That includes back-to-back losses to the Washington Football Team and the Bills, and they're 0-3 ATS across the past three. The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four, and 5-0-1 in the previous six, including a push on the total in a 36-10 win over the Bengals in Week 10, easily covering a 6.5-point number.

The Bengals offense is in disarray since losing QB Joe Burrow (knee) to a season-ending injury in Week 11 in Washington. Since the third quarter of that game they have managed just 31 points across the past 14 quarters.