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OKLAHOMA CITY @ BROOKLYN | 01/10 | 6:00 PM EST
UNDER 225
ANALYSIS: The Thunder played a half-court, defensive game against New York on Friday and it worked, as they won 101-89. We expect more of the same here, as Oklahoma City is 0-11 OU (-11.27 ppg) after a win as an underdog in which it scored fewer than 10 fast-break points - including an overtime game that stayed Under. Also, the Thunder are 0-9 OU (-7.78 ppg) on the road following a game as dogs in which their opponent shot under 40 percent. With the Nets 0-6 OU (-9.50 ppg) with less than two days' rest after a loss as road dogs and 0-10-1 OU (push was an overtime game) at home with less than two days' rest after a game in which they allowed 50-plus points in the paint, at least 10 offensive rebounds and had fewer than 12 steals, we are on the Under.
+460 9-4 IN LAST 13 NBA PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 BKN O/U PICKS
10:39 AM
TORONTO @ GOLDEN ST. | 01/10 | 8:30 PM EST
GOLDEN ST. +3
ANALYSIS: Golden State is coming off an upset win over the Clippers in which Stephen Curry had 38 points and 11 assists. The next highest scorer for the Warriors was Andrew Wiggins with 16 points. Since the start of the 2015 season, Golden State is 6-0 ATS (15.00 ppg) at home after a home win in which Curry was its high scorer by at least 20 points and 8-0 ATS (+10.38 ppg) following a home game in which he had at least 10 assists. Toronto is 0-7 ATS (-8.64 ppg) when the line is within three points of pick'em after a game in which Fred VanVleet was its high scorer. We like the Warriors in this spot.
+460 9-4 IN LAST 13 NBA PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 TOR ATS PICKS
10:33 AM
DENVER @ NEW YORK | 01/10 | 6:00 PM EST
OVER 215.5
ANALYSIS: Nikola Jokic had 38 points on 14-of-31 shooting and added four assists in Denver's 124-117 overtime loss to Dallas on Thursday and then took only eight shots in a 115-103 win over Philadelphia two days later but had 12 assists. This is a big Over indicator. Denver is 8-0 OU after a game in which Jokic took fewer than 10 shots, eclipsing the total by an average of 23.6 ppg. Denver also is 7-0 OU (+11.21 ppg) after a game as a favorite in which Jamal Murray had a positive plus/minus and 7-0 OU (+14.07 ppg) on the road after any game in which Jokic had at least 10 assists. The Knicks are 9-0 OU as rested underdogs after a game in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.
+460 9-4 IN LAST 13 NBA PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 NY O/U PICKS
10:28 AM
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH | 01/10 | 8:15 PM EST
OVER 47.5
ANALYSIS: The Steelers are 11-0 this season when scoring at least 24 points. When they record fewer, they are 1-4, with the lone win coming against a Baltimore team missing QB Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is much more aggressive in the playoffs than the regular season. In fact, Tomlin is a perfect 7-0 OU in his career at home in the postseason when his team isn't laying double digits. In his last active date, the Steelers lost to Jacksonville 45-42, with the total at 41. Cleveland would be very happy with a similar result. We are on the Over.
+280 5-2-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS
10:08 AM
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE | 01/10 | 1:05 PM EST
BALTIMORE -3.5
ANALYSIS: Of the seven previous 2,000-yard rushers, none led their team to a playoff victory. Five did not even reach the postseason. Tennessee ran Derrick Henry a whopping 34 times last week to get him over 2,000 yards. In the game prior to that, he had 23 carries. This is not a good sign, as the Titans are 0-7 ATS since they drafted Henry in 2016 when he had at least 50 carries over the previous two weeks and they are facing a team with a time-of-possession average of less than 34 minutes. Last week, Tennessee’s primary goal was to get Henry to 2,000 yards. Making the playoffs was a side benefit. It will cost the team here.
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS | 01/10 | 4:40 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -10
ANALYSIS: This will be a one-sided game. I like the Saints because of their defense, which is as good as any in the league. The defense will shut down the Bears, who aren't any good and are lucky to be here. Much was made about their late-season surge, but those wins came against three awful teams: Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville. When Chicago played a playoff-caliber team, the Packers, in Week 17 the Bears got whipped by 19. I'm taking New Orleans.
+445 21-15-4 IN LAST 40 NFL ATS PICKS
+1222 19-6-1 IN LAST 26 NO ATS PICKS
WED 1/6
UTAH @ DETROIT | 01/10 | 3:00 PM EST
DETROIT +7.5
Give the Pistons credit, they’ve been playing teams tough. They might have a 2-7 record, but they are 5-4 ATS - including 3-1 ATS as home underdogs. This is not part of a back-to-back set, so Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose should play their normal amount of minutes. Meanwhile, the Jazz are off to a slow start and are only 2-5 ATS as favorites. While I think Utah wins, this line is large enough that I like taking a chance on the points.
+177 4-2 IN LAST 6 NBA ATS PICKS
+331 11-7 IN LAST 18 UTA ATS PICKS
Game: (825) Minnesota at (826) Iowa Date/Time: Jan 10 2021 2:30 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 2% Play: Minnesota +10.0 (-110)
Minnesota +10 (2%)
Game: (829) Bradley at (830) Northern Iowa Date/Time: Jan 10 2021 4:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 2% Play: Total Under 137.5 (-110)
Bradley under 137.5 (2%)
Game: (841) Maryland at (842) Illinois Date/Time: Jan 10 2021 8:00 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 2% Play: Illinois -9.5 (-110)
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