Saturday 1/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Will Rogers - NBA - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:05 PM
Will's TOP FREE NBA Play!

Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers -4 (-108) (BetAnySports)

The set-up: I think the Blazers are the correct call here, as I expect the Hawks to come in flat-footed here after their loss in Utah just last night. The Blazers on the other hand have had a night off to absorb a poor 111-87 home defeat to the Pacers and I look for a much better effort here in this very favorable matchup. The pick: Both teams are dealing with injury issues, but the backcourt of Lillard and McCollum will just be too much for this young Hawks team to deal with in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, as note that Atlanta has indeed struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games after failing to score 100 points in a SU/ATS loss in its previous game and playing on no rest. Consider Portland on Saturday night. This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Blazers.

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NFL Divisional Odds: Opening Lines, Sharp Money & Line Moves
Patrick Everson

Tom Brady and the Bucs are 0-2 SU and ATS against the Saints this season, but they'll get a third crack in the NFC divisional round. The SuperBook opened New Orleans -5.5 and very quickly went to -3.5.

NFL divisional playoff betting is on deck, and NFL divisional round odds are on the board and getting action for the four matchups. Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the surprising Cleveland Browns, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints meet for the third time this season.

The SuperBook's John Murray provided insights on NFL divisional playoff opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Divisional Round Odds


Rams at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -7, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
Los Angeles and its banged-up quarterback corps somehow went to Seattle on Wild Card Weekend and knocked out the third-seeded Seahawks 30-20 Saturday. Jared Goff didn't start for the Rams against Seattle, due to his thumb injury, but backup John Wolford suffered a neck injury in the first quarter, and Goff had to jump in. On Sunday night, both were questionable for the Saturday night divisional game.

Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay had a bye week and got some rest this weekend.

"Not much action to report there," Murray said Sunday night, noting the line was stable at Packers -7. "We were happy to see this game in the first time slot of the weekend. If that was the last game of the weekend, every parlay would've gone to the Packers, and it could've been a huge-exposure game."


Ravens at Bills Odds
Opening line
Bills -2.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Josh Allen and No. 2 seed Buffalo stemmed Indianapolis' late comeback bid to claim a 30-27 victory Saturday, the Bills' first playoff win since the 1995-96 season. Fifth-seeded Baltimore went to No. 4 seed Tennesee on Sunday and dug itself a 10-0 first-quarter hole, but didn't give up another point until the fourth quarter in a 20-13 victory.

"The Bills are still at -2.5. That's gonna be a huge-handle game," Murray said. "The public loves both teams right now. Great two-way volume."


Browns at Chiefs Odds
Opening line
Chiefs -9.5, Over/Under 54

Why the line moved
Cleveland punched No. 3 seed Pittsburgh in the mouth by taking a 28-0 first-quarter lead, largely aided by three turnovers, then held the Steelers enough in check to notch a 48-37 victory Sunday night. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, meanwhile, rested up for the divisional round, getting a bye week as the AFC's No. 1 seed.

"The Chiefs are up to -10 from -9.5, but that could come down," Murray said. "I think the Browns will be a very square 'dog on Sunday."


Buccaneers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -5.5, Over/Under 49.5

Why the line moved
Tom Brady and fifth-seeded Tampa Bay got more than they could've expected from backup Washington QB Taylor Heinicke, but prevailed 31-23 on Wild Card Saturday. On Wild Card Sunday, No. 2 seed New Orleans slogged to a 21-9 win over Chicago, setting up the third meeting this season between these NFC South rivals.

The Saints won both regular-season clashes, opening the season with a 34-23 home victory, then posting a 38-3 rout at Tampa on Nov 8. But early action was swift on the underdog Bucs.

"We opened Saints -5.5 and the sharp guys flooded us with Bucs bets, so that disappeared quickly," Murray said Sunday night. "We moved down to -3.5."

The total was also on the move Sunday night, jumping up two points to 51.5.

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NFL Divisional Round Betting Tips: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

Early money thinks Buffalo was lucky to escape the Colts in the Wild Card Round and is taking the Bills down from -3 to -2.5 vs. Baltimore. If your money is on Bills Mafia in the Divisional Round, wait and see how low this spread with go.

The NFL playoffs are down to four final matchups for Divisional Round betting and the spreads and totals for those games still have that new car smell after hitting the board late Sunday night.

These will be some of the toughest NFL lines to beat all season, as bookies and bettors know the remaining eight teams inside and out. That makes getting the best of the number all that more important and remains the sharpest NFL betting strategy for the Divisional Round games.

These are our best NFL betting tips for which Divisional Round odds to bet now and which ones to bet later.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7): Bet Now

The Packers earned one of the exclusive postseason byes into the Divisional Round, giving them time to rest up and study their potential opponents. Aaron Rodgers & Co. finished the schedule on a six-game winning streak, averaging 33.5 points per game during that red-hot run (4-2 ATS)

The Rams defense will put that scoring attack to the test. Los Angeles smothered the Seattle Seahawks in the Wild Card Round and has limited its last five foes to 14.6 points per contest. However, L.A. does have some injury concerns entering the next round of the playoffs. Pass rush god Aaron Donald is nursing tender ribs, top WR Cooper Kupp is cutting on a sore knee, and QB Jared Goff is still healing up from thumb surgery just three weeks ago (remember, he didn't get the start in the Wild Card Round). All three are expected to suit up, however.

Some books are dealing the Packers as touchdown chalk while others are at Green Bay -7.5. The weather in Wisconsin is going to be cooler than a polar bear’s toe nails this weekend and the Pack are 4-2 SU and ATS at Lambeau Field in the postseason since Rodgers took over the QB1 gig. If you’re taking a big bite of Cheese this weekend, make sure you get it now at -7 and avoid having that half-point hook stuck in your throat.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3): Bet Later

Even before the Browns and Steelers were at halftime, some online books had this AFC Divisional Round spread on the board. Buffalo opened as a field goal fave at home but the vig was giving back +106, indicating that any early money on Baltimore could bump this under the key number of a field goal.

Buffalo edged Indianapolis by three points as touchdown chalk at home in the Wild Card Round, despite the Colts purely outplaying the Bills, out-gaining them 472 yards to 397 yards and dominating time of possession to the tune of 34:17.

All the Ravens did this past weekend was go into Tennessee and earn their sixth straight win and cover with a solid two-way effort, most notably limiting the Titans’ fourth-ranked scoring attack to just 13 points. Momentum is worth its weight in gold during the postseason.

Some offshore books have already taken this spread down a half-point tick, dealing Buffalo -2.5 (-120). If your bookie is still hanging Bills -3 and you like the home side in this AFC Divisional Round war, wait it out. This one could fall even further before kickoff this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (Under 51.5): Bet Later

To quote San Diego news legend Ronald Burgundy, “Boy that escalated quickly.”

The total for this NFC South trilogy hit the board as low as 49.5 points at some books and within minutes bounded as high as 51.5 (Over -115). Even after the Saints slow-played the Chicago Bears to a 21-9 win in the Wild Card Round, bettors are backing a fireworks display in the Big Easy this weekend.

This will be the third time these divisional foes have faced each other this season, with the teams going Over the 48.5-point total at NOLA way back in Week 1 and staying Under the 51 in Tampa in Week 9. The Saints won both games with scores of 34 and 38 points—the two highest point totals allowed by the Buccaneers this season.

But, besides all the offensive weaponry on both depth charts, we also have the No. 2 versus No. 5 defenses in DVOA at Football Outsiders butting heads in the Superdome. Neither team can afford the other to build momentum, so expect some offense on defense and a slower, plodding pace as they each try to ice their respective rival future Hall of Fame QB.

The Brady vs. Brees hype could continue adding points to this total, so if you like lower-scoring football, see if it goes 52 or higher before coming back on the Under.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (Under 54.5): Bet Now

How quick do you have to be to get the best of the NFL odds? Well, as of this writing the Browns are still working on the Steelers and some online books have already hung a line on Cleveland-Kansas City. For our purposes, we’re looking at the opening total of 54.5 points.

Cleveland just swamped Pittsburgh with plenty of points, however, some of that scoreboard work came from the defense. The Browns benefitted from a nightmare first half from Ben Roethlisberger and received plenty of extra reps with the football, so we’re not as smitten with this scoring attack as we are with Cleveland’s defense.

Kansas City, on the other hand, is Kansas City. Points could fall from the skies over Arrowhead this Sunday. But so could snow. The extended forecast in Missouri is calling for a chance of the white stuff this weekend. The Chiefs stop unit has snoozed a bit in the second half of the schedule but allows just 22 points per home game and can find another gear in the postseason, coming into the Divisional Round rested and ready off the bye.

If you like the Under, I’m going to say grab it now. The Browns offense isn’t as good as it looked in the Wild Card and staying ahead of possible bad weather is a smart move. Start following those Kansas City meteorologists on Twitter.

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301LA RAMS -302 GREEN BAY
GREEN BAY is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992.

303BALTIMORE -304 BUFFALO
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. winning teams over the last 2 seasons.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 16

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LA RAMS (11 - 6) at GREEN BAY (13 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 122-88 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 207-150 ATS (+42.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 78-51 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA RAMS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (12 - 5) at BUFFALO (14 - 3) - 1/16/2021, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games in playoff games since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Trend Report

Saturday, January 16

LA Rams @ Green Bay
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Baltimore @ Buffalo
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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NFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the NFC Championship continues this weekend in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round as four teams will look to advance to the conference championship game.

A pair of division winners (Washington and Seattle) has been eliminated, while Wild Card teams Tampa Bay and Los Angeles picked up road wins.

After losing in the NFC Championship last season, the Green Bay Packers own home-field advantage in the NFC as they are the top seed at 13-3.

NFC Matchups

1 Green Bay vs. 6 L.A. Rams
2 New Orleans vs. 5 Tampa Bay

Odds to Win NFC Championship

Green Bay Packers +135
New Orleans Saints +200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +360
Los Angeles Rams +800

Matchup - L.A. Rams vs. Green Bay

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Lambeau Field
Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV-Time: FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Packers -7, Total 46

L.A. Rams Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Green Bay Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

The Packers and Rams last met in 2018 at the Los Angeles Coliseum as L.A. edged Green Bay, 29-27 as 7.5-point favorites. It marked the first win for the Rams over the Packers since 2006, but Green Bay has covered six consecutive matchups between the two teams.

Playoff Notes

This is the third ever meeting between these clubs in the postseason as the St. Louis Rams and the "Greatest Show on Turf" bounced Green Bay in the 2001 Divisional Round, 45-17.

The Rams are 3-2 SU/ATS under head coach Sean McVay in the playoffs after L.A. eliminated Seattle in the Wild Card Round, 30-20. That marked only the second 'over' in McVay's five playoff appearances.

The Packers are 10-8 with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback in the playoffs since 2009, which includes a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS mark at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in the Divisional Playoffs when having the bye, but the two victories came by exactly five points apiece.

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AFC Divisional Round Cheat Sheet, Odds, Trends

The road to the AFC Championship goes through Kansas City as the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will take the field for the first time in the postseason.

The top-seeded Chiefs host the Browns, who shocked the Steelers in the Wild Card round to win their first playoff game since 1994.

The Bills last won a postseason game in 1995 prior to their victory over the Colts on Saturday. Buffalo advances to host Baltimore, who knocked out Tennessee in the Wild Card round.

AFC Matchups

1 Kansas City vs. 6 Cleveland
2 Buffalo vs. 5 Baltimore

Odds to Win AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs -125
Buffalo Bills +280
Baltimore Ravens +400
Cleveland Browns +1200

Matchup - Baltimore vs. Buffalo

Date: Saturday, January 16
Venue: Bills Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Bills -2, Total 50

Baltimore Road Record: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Buffalo Home Record: 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

These squads did not meet this season, but Baltimore won at Buffalo in 2019 as 6.5-point favorites, 24-17. Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes in the victory, marking the fifth straight win for Baltimore over Buffalo since 2010.

Playoff Notes

The Ravens improved to 6-1 in the Wild Card round under head coach John Harbaugh with the 20-13 triumph over Tennessee, avenging last season's loss to the Titans in the divisional round.

However, Baltimore owns a 2-3 road record in the divisional round during Harbaugh's tenure with the two wins coming at Tennessee in 2008 and at Denver in 2012, which ultimately led the Ravens capturing Super Bowl XLVII over the 49ers.

Buffalo won its first playoff game in 25 years against Indianapolis, ending a six-game postseason skid dating back to 1995. The last time the Bills picked up a victory in the divisional round of the playoffs came way back in 1993 against the L.A. Raiders, as Buffalo owns a perfect 4-0 record in franchise history at home in this round.

The Ravens and Bills have never faced each other in the playoffs, as Buffalo will have now faced every current team in the AFC North in the postseason at some point in franchise history.


Matchup - Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Chiefs -10, Total 56

Cleveland Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

This is the second meeting on the pro level between these former Texas Tech quarterbacks as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs past Baker Mayfield and the Browns, 37-21 as 7.5-point road favorites in 2018.

Kareem Hunt scored three touchdowns for Kansas City, but the running back is now with Cleveland, making for an interesting storyline. The Chiefs and Browns are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever, while Cleveland is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.

Playoff Notes

The Browns clinched their first postseason berth since 2002, when they ultimately lost to the rival Steelers in the Wild Card round. Fast forward 18 years later, Cleveland jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead to bounce Pittsburgh from the playoffs in a 48-37 triumph as five-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are fresh off their first Super Bowl title in nearly 50 years when they rallied past the 49ers last February. Kansas City is 4-1 in the playoffs with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, including a 3-1 mark at Arrowhead.

AFC top seeds won six consecutive divisional round games from 2013-18 before Baltimore was tripped up by Tennessee in 2019. Kansas City's four postseason victories under Mahomes' guidance have all come by 11 points or more.

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NFL Divisional Round Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Los Angeles' star pass rusher Aaron Donald injured his ribs versus Seattle in the Wild Card Round but is expected to play versus Green Bay in the Divisional Round.

A wild Wild Card Weekend is in the past, NFL Divisional Round odds are up, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury information, most notably surrounding Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff and defensive lineman Aaron Donald.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Divisional Round Injuries

Los Angeles Rams: Star defensive lineman Aaron Donald left the Rams' road victory over Seattle with a rib injury, X-rays for which came back negative, but he's questionable for Saturday's game at Green Bay. Jared Goff (thumb) didn't start against the Seahawks, but backup John Wolford (neck) was injured early, forcing Goff to come in and lead the Rams to victory. As of Monday, coach Sean McVay hadn't committed to who would start against the Packers. Interestingly, however, The SuperBook moved the Rams from +7 to +6.5 Monday night

Buffalo Bills: Second-leading rusher Zack Moss (ankle) is out for the remainder of the postseason. The Bills opened -2.5 and on Monday afternoon dipped to -1.5 at The SuperBook for Saturday's home game against Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland is dealing with a potential cluster-injury situation on the offensive line, with guard Michael Dunn (calf) and right tackle Jack Conklin (hamstring) questionable for Sunday's game at Kansas City. The Browns opened +10 at The SuperBook and were still +10 Monday night.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Running back Ronald Jones II (quad), who sat out the Bucs' Wild Card win over Washington, is questionable for Sunday's game at New Orleans. However, Tampa Bay was at +3 Monday at The SuperBook, quickly moving from an opener of +5.5.


Divisional Round Weather

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers: Green Bay won't quite be the frozen tundra, but per usual in January, it won't be warm Saturday. Game temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s, with winds of 10-15 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills: It's a night game Saturday in Buffalo, so it'll be chilly no question. The early forecast calls for temperatures in the low 30s and winds of 10-20 mph. Still, the total ticked up from 49.5 to 50.5 Monday night at The SuperBook.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: The early forecast looks pretty good for a January Sunday in Kansas City, with temperatures in the mid-40s and a light breeze of 5-10 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 54 and quickly got to 55.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Saturday’s games

Rams (11-6) @ Green Bay (13-3)
— LA scored a defensive TD in five of their last seven games; they scored one in each of their last four wins.
— In its last three games, Rams’ offense has two TD’s on 34 drives.
— In their six losses, Rams were outscored 96-31 in first half.
— Rams covered five of seven games as an underdog this year.
— Rams’ last five games stayed under the total.
— Under McVay, Rams are 3-2 SU in playoff games, with wins in New Orleans/Seattle.

— Packers had last week off; last seven years, #1 seeds are 11-3 ATS in this round.
— Green Bay won six in row, eight of last nine games overall.
— Packers scored 33.1 ppg in their last seven games,
— Last four times they were in playoffs, Packers won their first playoff game that season, scoring 31.8 ppg, winning by 5-17-25-5 points.
— Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under the total.
— Packers were outscored in 2nd half in nine of their last 13 games.

— Green Bay won five of last six series games; Rams won last meeting 29-27 (-7.5) in Coliseum two years ago.
— Rams lost their last two visits to Lambeau, both in the Jeff Fisher era; their last win here was in 2006.
— Green Bay coach LaFleur was Rams’ OC in 2017.

Baltimore (12-5) @ Buffalo (14-3)
— Baltimore won its last six games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— In their last four games, Ravens allowed 10.8 ppg.
— Baltimore scored 25 TD’s on their last 55 drives.
— Ravens covered their one game as a dog this year, December 1st at Pittsburgh.
— Baltimore is 2-3 in playoff games since they won the Super Bowl eight years ago; last week was their first playoff win in six years.
— Ravens covered their last seven games overall.

— Bills won 10 of its last 11 games, covered eight of last nine.
— Buffalo outscored last seven opponents 166-77 in first half.
— Bills were only 2-9 on third down LW; Colts were 9-17.
— Buffalo is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Last week was Buffalo’s first playoff win in 26 years;

— Ravens won last three series games, by combined score of 84-27; they won 24-17 here LY.
— Baltimore lost two of last three visits to Buffalo.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - DP Angles
Matt Blunt

Divisional Playoff Betting Angles

Last week's stuff found some nice winners with the data from here and here, as the 'under' in the Baltimore/Tennessee game had more than one reference point and was never really in question.

The Ravens bucked the trend of the shortest WC favorite losing outright, as the Saints did against the number as the biggest favorite.

Fading Buffalo was also an option as the team that had the best ATS record during the regular season, and the playoff team with the worst – the Cleveland Browns – put together the most shocking performance of the weekend to push that run to 7-1-1 ATS the past nine years now.

Handicapping Cleveland is interesting this week because how much of last week do you throw out of the memory bank with head coach Kevin Stefanski back? Considering how many turnovers Cleveland benefited from in that Pittsburgh win, it almost makes the question a little harder.

The Browns do occupy a rather neat 16-game sample size dating back to realignment that I'll get to a bit later, but first it's a nice angle that comes from a reader's theory (thanks Jay) I was asked to look into before the Wildcard games even kicked off.

After doing the digging, I just hoped it would come up this week or beyond, and it only took the Bills game to go final for it to be applicable.

Therefore my apologies go out to Bills Mafia once again (although we both were happy last week with a Colts cover and Bills SU win), but if Buffalo's playoff run ends this week, I hope for their sake the saying “misery loves company” has some truth to it.

And Buffalo’s old pal Tom Brady could join them on the same ship.

Who's Hot

Since realignment, fading NFL playoff teams that won SU but fail to cover ATS (any round) is 25-8 SU and 15-17-1 ATS since realignment of 2002.

This is quite the angle to grasp but when you boil it down it does make a lot of sense to consider. And the SU and ATS disparity in numbers makes sense as well with it having enough times where it's a possible suspect Wildcard team going on the road against a team off a bye in the Divisional round.

But for it to hold true for all of the final three rounds is still pretty impressive, and quite the memory bank of plays to keep it in consideration every season, especially with it not being applicable once in last year's playoffs.

Teams to win SU but not cover the number could be victimized by lofty expectations on a number that's a TD or bigger like say the Bills and Buccaneers were last week. They could be a -4 favorite that squeaks out a late kick to break a tie/come back to win, or anything in between.

Either way there are some leaks in the games of those squads, and in scenarios where they are either on the road in the Divisional round, up against another very good team with a Super Bowl berth on the line, or in the Super Bowl itself, you advance in the NFL playoffs these days without an ATS win, your playoff run tends to not last much longer.

Who could you follow?

Baltimore
New Orleans

The duality of the SU and ATS numbers does create a few more puzzle pieces in the puzzle this week with the spreads in Buffalo and Tampa both being in the FG or less range.

Only one time in the last nine tries has a NFL team in this spot won the game outright though – 45-42 Jacksonville over Pittsburgh in 2017 – and 2018 saw the Rams make it all the way to the Super Bowl as the beneficiaries of the other end of this trend, beating Dallas after they failed to cover, and getting by New Orleans (won't say “beat” after the no PI) the following week after the Saints failed to cover.

The double-revenge spot for the Bucs is another layer to that cake in the other applicable game, especially with the latter loss being as ugly as it was (38-3 on SNF). Brady has been rather ruthless in his career when he's on a quest for another championship, and maybe that cutthroat nature returns in being the guy to retire Drew Brees.

After all, as great as these two future Hall of Fame QBs have been in their careers, this is also probably the closest thing we get to a WWE-style, “loser retires” matchup in the NFL, although who knows, Brady might go the George Blanda-route and transition to a kicker soon to play until he's 48 as well.

But one of these two may end up showing their age a little bit, in this matchup or beyond (for the winner), and even with this great historical angle suggesting it won't be the end for the Saints, a double revenge angle off the ugliest of losses for the Bucs isn't a spot that's fun to stand in front of either.

Understandable how it's hard to be confident in either side for this game.

Who's Not

Since realignment in 2002, backing NFL playoff teams to allow 30 or more points and win you are 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. Those games are also 8-7-1 O/U

Cleveland put on quite the performance in that 48-37 win over the Steelers, as it was like everything that went against the Browns the entire week without practicing and coaches missing flipped to good luck all at the same time.

The huge early lead allowed Cleveland to play a soft shell much earlier than they ever would have expected, but the 30+ points they gave up in a win isn't the best omen for thinking they can take down Goliath aka Kansas City.

Who could you fade?

Cleveland Browns

Benefiting from five turnovers won't happen again for the Browns, but getting 10 points can look like a lot when you just saw the team nearly put up 50.

If there ever was a team that would be capable of winning a football game 60-50, it would be a Patrick Mahomes-led KC Chiefs team, and with only one team in each conference getting the bye this year, the positive effects of that time off could easily be amplified.

Yes, there have been plenty of bye teams laying an egg and going the one-and-done route each year, but those games also accounted for 100% of the action during the Divisional Weekend, as opposed to just 50% this season.

Cleveland is still a very bad defense against the pass – Ben Roethlisberger's numbers are considered slightly inflated because of game situation – and now they are going up against the QB who's the future of this game in that regard.

The basis behind this trend is generally that these teams have very leaky defenses (to give up that many), had a way above their head effort offensively to still win with 31 or more, and/or took full advantages of turnovers, special teams returns, shock plays etc, all of which can't particularly be counted on to happen again. It's tough to trust either of those likely offensive scenarios to duplicate themselves a week later, and now that leaky defense is going up against a far better offensive team.

But laying the -10 with Kansas City does come with concerns as well, as to how you grade a coach returning after a week off.

Players get healthy after a game and it's known what to expect from them, but with bias already naturally coming from what's been seen last, how does the coaching return/switch completely overshadow it. It should, but you can see why Cleveland + the points has been gaining some attraction in the market.

What peaked my interest about those numbers though was looking at the 'over' results being slightly ahead, and that being the side of the total that does have some attraction to it.

Cleveland may not benefit from all those turnovers again, but they don't even need half of what they put up a week ago to do more than enough to see an 'over' ticket cash here if the Chiefs are sharp and decide to keep their foot on the gas for the full 60 minutes with it being the playoffs now.

The run the Chiefs had going of winning SU games but failing to cover the spread was absurd this year (maybe that earlier angle applies to KC next week), and eventually that's got to flip one way or another.

At 6-10 SU for teams in the same spot as Cleveland this week, it suggests that flipping to a KC outright loss may not be the most likely (don't get me wrong, as does the -10 spread), and if KC does continue letting their foes hang around and finish inside the number, in that case, I'd rather be holding an 'over' ticket for the full game.

Cleveland's defense isn't likely to have tremendous success holding QB Mahomes and company down, and Browns QB Baker Mayfield is never shy about going down swinging if the game calls for it, as the Baltimore Ravens from a few Mondays ago can surely attest too.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Division Round

Sunday’s games

Cleveland (12-5) @ Kansas City (14-2)
— Cleveland won seven of its last nine games.
— Last week was new Browns’ first playoff win ever, their first playoff game since ‘02.
— Cleveland won five of its last six road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Kansas City had last week off, also rested guys in Week 17.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 11 games, but are 0-7-1 ATS in last eight games.
— Chiefs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 3-5 TY.
— Last eight games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 6-4-16 points.
— Browns are 1-3 at Arrowhead, with lone win in 2009.
— Cleveland lost last two visits here, 23-17/17-13- their last visit here was 2015.

Tampa Bay (12-5) @ New Orleans (13-4)
— Last week’s win was Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 31-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last five games, scoring 26-31-47-44-31 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 45-95 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay is 12-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Bucs won their last six road games; they’re 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

— New Orleans is 3-2 in its last five games, giving up 21 ppg.
— Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 12 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games overall.
— Under is 7-3 in Saints’ last ten games.
— Saints are 5-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 9-8 in playoff games, 2-5 in 2nd+ playoff game of a year.

— Saints beat Tampa Bay twice this year, 34-23 (week 1), 38-3 (week 9).
— New Orleans led 17-7/31-0 at halftime of the two games.
— In 2nd meeting, Bucs ran ball five times for 8 yards, the whole game!!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Saturday, January 16

Ohio State @ Illinois
Ohio State (10-3, 4-3)
— ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #294
— Experience: #91
— Continuity: #160
— Buckeyes are 1-3 SU on Big 14 road, 1-0-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Ohio State won three of its last four games.
— Buckeyes are rebounding 33% of their own missed shots (#51).

Illinois (9-4, 5-2)
— ranked #7 by KenPom
— Tempo: #86
— Experience: #218
— Continuity: #42
— Illinois won four of its last five games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Illini is 3-1 SU in Big 14 home games, 2-2 ATS as home favorites.
— Illinois is shooting 41.2% on the arc (#5).

— Ohio State won nine of last 11 eleven games.
— Teams split last six meetings played here.

North Carolina @ Florida State
North Carolina (8-4, 3-2)
— ranked #35 by KenPom
— Tempo: #82
— Experience: #324
— Continuity: #147
— Carolina won its last three games, by 1-2-6 points.
— Tar Heels are turning ball over 21.6% of time (#267)
— UNC lost three of four true road games, winning by 2 at Miami.

Florida State (6-2, 2-1)
— ranked #25 by KenPom
— Tempo: #136
— Experience: #106
— Continuity: #103
— FSU split its last four games, after a 4-0 start.
— Seminoles are 2-0 in ACC home tilts, beating Ga Tech by 13, NC State by 32.
— Florida State is 2nd-tallest team in country.

— North Carolina won eight of last ten series games.
— Tar Heels lost last two visits here, 81-80/65-59.

San Diego State @ Utah State
San Diego State (9-3, 3-2)
— ranked #41 by KenPom
— Tempo: #335
— Experience: #6
— Continuity: #41
— Aztecs won three of last four games, but lost 57-45 here Thursday.
— San Diego State won its only other true road game, by 12 at Arizona St.
— Aztecs are forcing turnovers 22.7% of time (#37).

Utah State (10-3, 7-0)
— ranked #49 by KenPom
— Tempo: #175
— Experience: #266
— Continuity: #146
— Aggies won last nine games, after a 1-3 start.
— Utah State is 1-3 vs top 100 teams (schedule #211).
— Aggies have #14 eFG% defense in country.

— Utah State won four of last six series games.
— Aztecs won four of their last five visits to Logan.

Creighton @ Butler
Creighton (10-2, 6-1)
— ranked #10 by KenPom
— Tempo: #97
— Experience: #45
— Continuity: #21
— Creighton is 3-0 on Big East road, winning by 18-2-2 points.
— Bluejays won their last six games overall.
— Creighton is shooting 38.8% on the arc (#24)- their eFG% is #9.

Butler (3-7, 2-5)
— ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #292
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #264
— Bulldogs lost four of their last five games.
— Butler is 2-1 at home in Big East, losing only to UConn.
— Butler has #299 eFG% defense in country.

— Home side won last six series games.
— Creighton lost last three games in Hinkle, by 25-15-14 points.

Marquette @ St John’s
Marquette (7-6, 3-4)
— ranked #53 by KenPom
— Tempo: #247
— Experience: #196
— Continuity: #173
— Marquette lost four of its last six games overall.
— Marquette is 2-1 on Big East road, losing 91-88 at Xavier
— Marquette doesn’t force many turnovers (15.7%, #320).

St John’s (7-6, 2-5)
— ranked #86 by KenPom
— Tempo: #18
— Experience: #257
— Continuity: #187
— Johnnies are 2-1 at home in Big East, losing by 18 to Creighton.
— Red Storm has #324 eFG% defense in country.
— Big East home underdogs are 4-5 ATS this year.

— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Marquette lost last four visits here, by 14-8-20-2 points.

Michigan @ Minnesota
Michigan (11-0, 6-0)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #234
— Experience: #63
— Continuity: #142
— Michigan won Big 14 road tilts at Nebraska/Minnesota, both by 11.
— Wolverines are shooting 60.7% inside arc (#7)
— Michigan’s last five wins are all by 11+ points.

Minnesota (10-4, 3-4)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #58
— Experience: #132
— Continuity: #186
— Gophers are 3-0 at home, 0-4 on road in Big 14 games.
— Big 14 home underdogs are 8-6 ATS this season.
— Minnesota lost 82-57 in Ann Arbor ten days ago.

— Michigan won six of last seven series games.
— Wolverines won six of last seven visits to Minnesota.

Kentucky @ Auburn
Kentucky (4-7, 3-1)
— ranked #51 by KenPom
— Tempo: #238
— Experience: #340
— Continuity: #341
— Kentucky won three of last four games, winning at Miss State/Florida.
— Wildcats are turning ball over 21.3% of time (#259).
— Kentucky has #283 eFG% in country, shooting #257 inside arc, #269 on arc.

Auburn (7-6, 1-4)
— ranked #73 by KenPom
— Tempo: #78
— Experience: #345
— Continuity: #312
— Auburn is 0-2 at home in SEC, losing by 12 to Arkansas, 4 to Alabama.
— Tigers are turning ball over 23.5% of time (#316).
— SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-5 ATS.

— Home side won seven of last eight series games.
— Kentucky lost three of its last four visits to Auburn.

Stanford @ Colorado
Stanford (8-4, 4-2)
— ranked #45 by KenPom
— Tempo: #60
— Experience: #284
— Continuity: #56
— Cardinal won seven of their last nine games.
— Stanford is 1-2 on Pac-12 road, winning by 10 at Oregon State.
— Cardinal lost four of their six top 100 games.

Colorado (10-3, 4-2)
— ranked #14 by KenPom
— Tempo: #228
— Experience: #28
— Continuity: #100
— Colorado won its last three games, giving up 63.3 ppg.
— Buffs’ three losses were all on road, to top 30 teams.
— Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or fewer points are 9-5 ATS.

— Colorado won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Cardinal lost their last six visits to Boulder.

Baylor @ Texas Tech
Baylor (11-0, 4-0)
— ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #168
— Experience: #129
— Continuity: #54
— Baylor won its four Big X games, all by 11+ points.
— Bears are forcing turnovers 26.8% of the time (#3)
— Baylor is 2-0 on Big X road, winning by 11 at Iowa State, 18 at TCU

Texas Tech (11-3, 4-2)
— ranked #12 by KenPom
— Tempo: #282
— Experience: #273
— Continuity: #267
— Tech won five of its last six games.
— Tech’s two Big X losses: by 1 to Kansas, in OT to Oklahoma State.
— Big X home underdogs of 5 or fewer points are 3-2-1 ATS.

— Baylor is 7-4 in last eleven series games.
— Bears lost three of last four visits to Lubbock (won 57-52 LY)

Arkansas @ Alabama
Arkansas (10-3, 2-3)
— ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #20
— Experience: #240
— Continuity: #331
— Hogs lost three of last four games, after a 9-0 start.
— Arkansas lost its last two road games, at Tennessee/LSU
— SEC teams are shooting 54.5% inside arc against them (#12 of 14).

Alabama (10-3, 5-0)
— ranked #22 by KenPom
— Tempo: #16
— Experience: #119
— Continuity: #157
— Alabama won its last six games, after a 4-3 start.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Alabama is 2-0 at home in SEC, beating Ole Miss by 18, Florida by 15.
— SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 6-5 ATS.

— Arkansas won last six series games.
— Razorbacks won last three visits here, by 1-3-4 points.

Virginia @ Clemson
Virginia (8-2, 4-0)
— ranked #18 by KenPom
— Tempo: #357
— Experience: #135
— Continuity: #164
— Virginia won its four ACC games, giving up 58.8 ppg.
— Cavaliers are shooting 58.5% inside arc (#9)
— Virginia is playing slowest tempo of any team in country.

Clemson (9-1, 3-1)
— ranked #19 by KenPom
— Tempo: #293
— Experience: #183
— Continuity: #106
— Clemson’s only loss was 66-60 at Virginia Tech.
— Tigers won their last four games, giving up 58.3 ppg.
— Clemson is forcing turnovers 26.4% of time (#7).

— Virginia won last ten series games.
— Cavaliers won last four visits to the Palmetto State.

Gonzaga @ Saint Mary’s
Gonzaga (13-0, 4-0)
— ranked #9 by KenPom
— Tempo: #9
— Experience: #259
— Continuity: #177
— Zags won first four WCC games, all by 17+ points.
— Gonzaga is shooting 65.1% inside arc (#2)
— Zags won their only true road game, 116-88 at Portland.

Saint Mary’s (9-4, 0-2)
— ranked #82 by KenPom
— Tempo: #354
— Experience: #264
— Continuity: #226
— Gaels lost three of their last four games.
— Saint Mary’s lost first two WCC games, scoring 64-52 points.
— Gaels are 2-3 in top 100 games, beating Colorado St, South Dakota St.

— Gonzaga won 10 of last 12 series games.
— Zags won three of last five visits to Moraga (won 90-60 here LY)

BYU @ San Francisco
BYU (10-3, 1-1)
— ranked #56 by KenPom
— Tempo: #143
— Experience: #76
— Continuity: #263
— BYU won five of its last six games, losing only at Gonzaga.
— Cougars have road wins at Utah State, San Diego State, St Mary’s.
— BYU has #55 eFG% defense in country.

San Francisco (9-6, 3-2)
— ranked #78 by KenPom
— Tempo: #156
— Experience: #80
— Continuity: #161
— USF split its last eight games, after a 5-2 start.
— Dons are 1-3 in top 100 games, with only win over Virginia.
— 50.3% of their shots come behind the arc (#7).

— USF won three of last four series games, after an 0-11 drought.
— BYU lost 82-63/83-82 in their last two visits here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

601OHIO ST -602 ILLINOIS
ILLINOIS are 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more since 1997.

603N CAROLINA -604 FLORIDA ST
FLORIDA ST is 54-91 ATS (-46.1 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1997.

605SYRACUSE -606 PITTSBURGH
SYRACUSE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons.

607GEORGIA -608 OLE MISS
GEORGIA is 55-36 ATS (15.4 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) since 1997.

611MIAMI OHIO -612 W MICHIGAN
MIAMI OHIO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

615WM & MARY -616 DREXEL
WM & MARY is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) as a dog over the last 2 seasons.

615WM & MARY -616 DREXEL
Dane Fischer is 13-4 ATS (8.6 Units) as a dog (Coach of WM & MARY)

617N ILLINOIS -618 BALL ST
BALL ST is 10-3 ATS (6.7 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.

619NORTHEASTERN -620 COLL OF CHARLESTON
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 75-51 ATS (18.9 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game since 1997.

621MISSOURI -622 TEXAS A&M
MISSOURI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=31% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA trends…….

It is still early in the NBA season, but here are trends to consider for each team:
(stats are thru Wednesday’s games)

Atlanta Hawks:
— Lost four of last five games.
— Last six games stayed under total.
— 1-4 ATS at home, 4-1 on road.

Boston Celtics:
— Won their last four games, covered last three.
— 3-1 ATS at home.
— Underdogs covered all six of their road games.

Brooklyn Nets:
— Won four of their six games.
— Covered three of last four home games.
— Last five home games went over total.
— How will team’s approach change with James Harden on board?

Charlotte Hornets :
— Won/covered four of last five games.
— Five of their last six games stayed under.
— Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in their games.
— Check status of Hayward, who hurt his hip Wednesday

Chicago Bulls:
— Covered five in row, eight of last nine games.
— Four of their last five games went over total.
— 6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
— Lost three in row, five of last six games.
— Lost last three home games, scoring 88 ppg.
— Their last ten games stayed under the total.

Dallas Mavericks:
— Won/covered their last four games.
— Won/covered four of last five road games.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under.

Denver Nuggets:
— 1-5 ATS at home.
— Nine of their 11 games went over.
— Favorites are 3-1-1 ATS in their road games.

Detroit Pistons:
— Lost five of their last six games.
— Covered five of last seven games.
— Under is 5-2 in their home games; over is 3-1 in their road games.

Golden State Warriors:
— Won/covered four of last six games, all at home.
— Last four games stayed under total.
— 1-3 ATS on road; their last road game was December 29.

Houston Rockets:
— Lost four of their last five games.
— 3-6 ATS this season; 2-4 at home, 1-2 on road.
— Under is 5-0-1 in their last six games.

Indiana Pacers
— 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
— Three of their four road games went over.
— 2-0 ATS if they played night before.

LA Clippers:
— Won three of their last four games
— Last four home games went over total.
— 0-3 ATS in last three home games.

LA Lakers:
— Won last four games, covered last three.
— Six of their seven road games stayed under total.
— 2-4 ATS as a home favorite, 5-2 as a road favorite.

Memphis Grizzlies:
— Won/covered their last three games.
— 1-5 SU at home, 4-1 SU on road.
— Four of their last five home games stayed under.

Miami Heat
— Lost three of their four road games (underdogs 4-0 ATS)
— Three of their last four home games stayed under.
— 3-1 ATS in game after a loss; 1-3 ATS after a win.

Milwaukee Bucks:
— Won six of their last seven games.
— Last three games stayed under the total.
— 4-2 ATS as a home favorite, 3-3 as a road favorite.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
— Lost eight of their last nine games.
— Six of their last seven games went over.
— Karl-Anthony Towns is back from his injury.

New Orleans Pelicans:
— Lost their last four games (1-3 ATS)
— 1-4 ATS as a favorite, 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
— Underdogs covered all five of their home games.

New York Knicks:
— Lost their last four games (0-4 ATS)
— Last five road games stayed under total.
— 2-4 ATS at home, 3-3 ATS on road.

Oklahoma City:
— Lost all five of their home games.
— 1-4 ATS as home underdogs, 5-2 ATS as road dogs.
— Over is 3-2 in their home games; under is 4-2 in their road games.

Orlando Magic:
— Lost five of their last seven games.
— Last five home games stayed under the total.
— 4-1 ATS as a favorite, 2-4 ATS as an underdog.

Philadelphia 76ers:
— Lost three of their last four games.
— Last four games went over the total.
— Covered once in their last four games.

Phoenix Suns:
— 2-3 in last five games, after a 5-1 start.
— 3-0 ATS in game following a loss.
— Four of their last five games went over total.

Portland Trailblazers:
— Won their last four games (3-1 ATS)
— 1-4 ATS at home, 4-2 ATS on road
— Under is 3-2 in their home games.

Sacramento Kings:
— Lost six of their last eight games.
— 2-5-1 ATS at home, 3-2 on road.
— Five of their last six games went over.

San Antonio Spurs:
— Won four of last five games, all on road.
— 4-0 ATS as a road underdog.
— Lost three of their four home games.

Toronto Raptors
— Lost five of their last six games.
— 2-5 ATS on the road.
— Four of their last six games went over.
— Remember, they’re playing “home” games in Tampa, not Toronto

Utah Jazz
— Won/covered last three games, all on the road.
— Underdogs covered all three of their home games.
— Three of their last four games stayed under.

Washington Wizards
— Underdogs covered five of their six home games.
— Covered four of their five road games.
— Six of their last seven games went over total.